RCP Ave: Obama +12.8%; Rass Colorado Obama 48% McCain 42%

The Real Clear Politics Average today is showing increasing distance in the near complete Democratic Primary, and breaks milestones.  Averaging Five Polls, it's showing:

Obama: 52.2%
Clinton: 39.4%

This is by far the largest lead Obama has received in this metric of the race.  A large move has occurred the last several days in Gallup and Rasmussen, while Zogby has essentially blown the roof off.

More importantly however today is the new Rasmussen Poll from Colorado, possibly the most pivotal state on Obama's expanded Map.

Obama: 48% (46%)
McCain: 42% (43%)

Obama now attracts 77% of the vote from Democrats while McCain earns 79% support from Republicans. Among unaffiliated voters, Obama leads by twenty-one percentage points. A month ago, Obama had a ten-point lead among unaffiliated voters.

Obama is viewed favorably by 55% of Colorado voters, up two points from a month ago. McCain is viewed favorably by 51%, down six points from a month ago.

Rasmussen Markets data shows that Democrats are currently given a 64.8 % chance of winning Colorado’s nine Electoral College votes this November.

Colorado is the sort of state that renders W. Virginia and Kentucky meaningless.  It's the Western state that is pivotal to Obama's victory.  As Colorado goes, so does Nevada and New Mexico in all likelyhood.  And this is before Obama has really returned to the state...

Colorado is one of the few states where Obama clearly outperforms Clinton in general election match-ups. In the unlikely event that Clinton were to win the Democratic nomination, she trails McCain 47% to 44% in the state.

Obama leads McCain on issues as follows:

Economy (41% of State)
Obama: 53%
McCain: 39%

Iraq (21% of State)
Obama: 63%
McCain: 28%

Obama's growing lead in Colorado is impressive and his ability to put more of the map in play is going to be the story of June IMO as many of these states begin to show distinct Obama advantages.

Yesterday I wrote about how the SUSA PA poll has answered the electability arguement...

SUSA is now out with their new poll, including various head-to-head match ups.

Topline:

Obama:  48%  (42%)
McCain:  40%  (47%)
Undec:    12%  (21%)

White Voters:

Obama:  43%
McCain:  44%
Undec:    13%

Independents:

Obama:  44%
McCain:  41%
Undec:    15%

Democrats:

Obama:  70%
McCain:  17%
Undec:    13%

Republicans:

McCain:  76%
Obama:  16%
Undec:    8%

Hispanics:

Obama:  82%
McCain:  17%
Undec:    12%

Women:

Obama:  50%
McCain:  36%
Undec:    14%

Men:

Obama:  46%
McCain:  44%
Undec:    10%

After reviewing PA's Polling and the recent North Carolina SUSA Poll that shocks and shows Clinton winning with Obama losing vs. McCain, I'm developing a hypothesis that over time, Clinton voters return to Obama, but that takes a 4-6 week gestation period during which they go through the five stages of grief.  Polling out of Pennsylvania, New Jersey, California, Ohio and Colorado now indicate that Obama is solidifying the party base and Clinton voters... by July, Obama should hit his stride  into the convention.  With a United Democratic Party, this year, Victory is Very Very Probable.

•  Rec's for the Big Sky Strategy!

  by Steven R on Wed May 21, 2008 at 07:06:11 AM PDT

•  Obama will win CO

  NV and NM.  Belee dat.

  by billysumday on Wed May 21, 2008 at 07:07:55 AM PDT

•  The progressive West and Midwest

  Beautiful country, beautiful people

  by rdxtion on Wed May 21, 2008 at 07:11:05 AM PDT

•  still, there is work to do in Ohio and Florida

  Glad to see Obama is going to Florida.  Sure, we can make maps without them, but it sure would be better and easier to win to win them.

  by John DE on Wed May 21, 2008 at 07:11:27 AM PDT

  •  The great news

    The Great news is that Obama has time and space to work in Ohio and Florida because his map is turning more Blue... His Target states are moving in his direction even before he's the actual nominee.  He now has time and room to go to Florida for many days and turn it blue too...

    That's how you build a Landslide, the certain goal of Obama

    by Steven R on Wed May 21, 2008 at 07:12:56 AM PDT

•  Electoral votes

  Colorado:  9
  West Virginia: 5

  I didn't list Kentucky, because Democrats are rarely competitive there regardless of who they nominate.  But we've heard a lot from the Clinton campaign and its supporters about the importance of West Virginia and how Hillary is stronger than Obama there, but almost nothing about Obama's strength in places like Colorado.

  by leevank on Wed May 21, 2008 at 07:12:23 AM PDT

•  Anyone see those SUSA NC numbers?

  What's up with those?

  by bleigh82 on Wed May 21, 2008 at 07:12:49 AM PDT

  •  from my diary

    After reviewing PA's Polling and the recent North Carolina SUSA Poll that shocks and shows Clinton winning with Obama losing vs. McCain, I'm developing a hypothesis that over time, Clinton voters return to Obama, but that takes a 4-6 week gestation period during which they go through the five stages of grief. Polling out of Pennsylvania, New Jersey, California, Ohio and Colorado now indicate that Obama is solidifying the party base and Clinton voters... by July, Obama should hit his stride  into the convention.  With a United Democratic Party, this year, Victory is Very Very Probable.

    by Steven R on Wed May 21, 2008 at 07:13:41 AM PDT

  •  SUSA in the south

    Terrible record. Just terrible. Didn't they say that Hillary was within 5 of Obama in NC? Enough said.

    by oak510 on Wed May 21, 2008 at 07:17:58 AM PDT

    •  I'm not entirely sure

      how much comparison there should be between primary polling accuracy and general election polling accuracy.  They are completely different voter turnout models.

      That said, in 2004 blacks were 24% of the general electorate in NC, and the SUSA poll above has them at 20% this year.  THAT won't happen.

      by bawbie on Wed May 21, 2008 at 07:26:27 AM PDT

•  This is exactly spot on

  After reviewing PA's Polling and the recent North Carolina SUSA Poll that shocks and shows Clinton winning with Obama losing vs. McCain, I'm developing a hypothesis that over time, Clinton voters return to Obama, but that takes a 4-6 week gestation period during which they go through the five stages of grief.

  After picking my jaw up off the floor, the NC SUSA poll is amazing.  If Obama consolidates even half of the 20 point difference in women's votes between himself and Clinton, and turns out the black vote (SUSA has less black vote in NC than 2004!!) he can win North Carolina.

  It really was a good poll for Obama.

  by bawbie on Wed May 21, 2008 at 07:14:27 AM PDT

  •  I agree, the poll proves NC Is in play

    I think the way Obama is handling Clinton now is going to win these voters over.  His statements yesterday were beautiful and he'll only get more complimentary.

    by Steven R on Wed May 21, 2008 at 07:15:45 AM PDT

  •  Okay THANKS!

    I figured it had something to do with Clinton voters nixing on Obama to a degree after the primary there.  I'm sure many of them will come around.

    I guess though, any way you look at these numbers, they are certainly a good sign.

    Whether Barack can win NC or not, McCain is going to have to spend more time there than he pleases.  

    by bleigh82 on Wed May 21, 2008 at 07:16:55 AM PDT

    •  That's Obama's Strength

      McCain will not be on Obama's turf, he'll be on his own, in Bush states like Virginia, north Carolina, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico and Ohio trying to stop a landslide as Obama locks up his states early.

      by Steven R on Wed May 21, 2008 at 07:18:27 AM PDT

    •  The numbers that interested me:

      Women:
      Obama: 46
      McCain: 47

      Clinton: 56
      McCain: 37

      Democrats:
      Obama: 65
      McCain: 28

      Clinton: 74
      McCain: 17

      It also showed Hagan only 4 points back of Dole and Perdue up 7 in the gov race.

      by bawbie on Wed May 21, 2008 at 07:24:57 AM PDT

•  I completely agree with this:

  I'm developing a hypothesis that over time, Clinton voters return to Obama, but that takes a 4-6 week gestation period during which they go through the five stages of grief.

  That SUSA NC poll just shows what I call "the disappointment effect".  If you ask Obama supporters right now who they would support if it were McCain vs. Clinton, they'll say Clinton because they know Obama is winning.  If you ask Clinton supporters that right after they lose a primary, some will say McCain just because of their disappointment.  But give it a couple weeks, and they are right back to their party.

  by duha on Wed May 21, 2008 at 07:15:09 AM PDT

  •  the pain is sharp out the booth

    I think the clinton voters leaving the booth and talking to an exit pollster are at their peak of defiance.  

    give it weeks, and it lessens

    Months and they become Democrats again and in the end will vote for Obama who has done NOTHING to engender their vitriol.  

    by Steven R on Wed May 21, 2008 at 07:17:23 AM PDT

•  Hmm... When you're losing both Men and Women

  you've got to hope for an unusually high turnout among the Gender Unaffiliated voters...

  by Elwood Dowd on Wed May 21, 2008 at 07:18:34 AM PDT

  •  Who is losing both men and women? And where? nt

    by joemcginnissjr on Wed May 21, 2008 at 07:24:01 AM PDT

    •  McCain in Pennsylvania

      by Steven R on Wed May 21, 2008 at 07:54:56 AM PDT

•  at least 3 months for HRC supporters to come back

  In 2004 after Howard Dean dropped out, he said he had to campaign for 3 months to get all his supporters to back Kerry.  I'd say that's the minimum time required.  

  Clinton has a broader base of support, many of whom are DINOs, so not all of them will come back.  The upside is that due to the large number of self-identified Democrats, if only half (of the ones who said they would vote McCain) end up voting for Obama, then it's a landslide.

  by unertl on Wed May 21, 2008 at 07:18:36 AM PDT

  •  Which is why the sooner she leaves, the better.

    Obama is having to spend time and resouces in Puerto Rico when he could be in places like Ohio, New Mexico, etc.

    If Hillary were to take the nomination to the convention floor -- along with her loyal based of female supporters -- the process might become so embittered that they DON'T vote for Obama in November.

    by jeepdad on Wed May 21, 2008 at 07:48:38 AM PDT

•  I've largely ignored CO

  Considering its proximity to McSame's Arizona and the so-called maverick identity of the populace, I expect him to win it regarless of the inroads we have made. I'm surprised by Rasmussen's poll. I think we should definitely make a good effort there. A win would be huge, but I'm not banking on it, despite what the polls say. Are there any Colorado insiders that can give me more reason to be confident of a win?

  by viriginia liberal on Wed May 21, 2008 at 07:21:01 AM PDT

  •  Sure

    Colorado has been slowly changing, out of the public eye.  We are no longer a small state.  We have 9 electoral votes, second only to
    Arizona in the inter-mountail west.  This state is very urbanized with 55% of the population in the Denver metro area and 80% of the population along the urbanized "front range corridor."

    In 2004, the Democrats captured both houses of the legislature for the first time since 1962.  In 2006, they captured the governership and increased their majorities in the legislature while winning 2 other state-wide races, including the CU Board of Regents race which political nerds consider the baseline race in Colorado - the race where no money is spent and people just vote for the party because neither candidate is known.

    On a national front, in 2004 the Salazar brothers were elected to the House and Senate taking two previously red seats.  In 2006, the Democrats picked up another previously red seat.  This seat was drawn as a "swing" district with the numbers of Republicans, Democrats and unaffiliates being within 1,000 of each other.  And the Democrats won it big.

    The Republicans are getting thrashed in the media this year, especially because the news is consistently reporting on their newest state legislator Douglas Bruce from Colorado Springs (the author of the tax limiting measure here in Colorado) who refused to be sworn-in on the first day of the session because if he waited several days he would be able to serve one more term under our term limits statute.  He then proceded to kick a reported on the day of his swearing-in which caused his unanimous centure by the House and then later voted against a tribute to vetrans because such tributes were a waste of time - oh wait, he voter for several of the wast of time tributes just in the weeks before the vote.  You simply can't make this shit up and you couldn't pay for the damage it has done to the Republican brand here in Colorado.

    Colorado is a very independent state.  It was a Republican state for a long time because it was led by moderate, effective Republicans.  As a matter of fact, in the late 90's when I was still a Republican, I was instrumental in electing a fully pro-choice Republican as the Speaker of the House.

    But things have changed in the Republican party.  There are only 4 or 5 moderate Republicans left in the legislature.  The rest are garden variety/air head neocons.  They are not popular.

    This state is only in play for the Republicans because they nominated McCain.  But, I think and have thought for 8 years that this state is going the way of California - remember it used to be a Republican state as well.  

    I believe this year with the election of another Democratic US Senator and the possible knock off of Marilyn Musgrave (a feat I would have told you a month ago was impossible) that this is the year for Colorado to throw off the cloak of purplish hue and put on a new royal blue cloak.

    While I am not confident, barring a stupid campaign by Obama (which he has shown he is capable of) Obama has a better than even shot of taking the state.

    by MMColo on Wed May 21, 2008 at 08:14:54 AM PDT

    •  Education levels very high

      as well along the Front Range and gaining on the west slope as population grows there. The plains will go Republican, as will Denver's southern suburbs and Colorado Springs, but Denver is Democratic territory. We've elected a Democratic governor and senator--both moderates--but are on the verge of electing the more progressive Mark Udall.  Actually, IMO the most popular Democrat in the state is the mayor of Denver, John Hickenlooper, and if the convention in August is successful, he may be "on the air" a lot--could have a very positive influence on the November election.

      by purplepenlady on Wed May 21, 2008 at 08:34:44 AM PDT

•  Also a new MO poll out today

  Obama 45
  McCain 48

  Clinton 48
  McCain 46

  The difference between Obama and Clinton being almost entirely white Democratic women.

  It also shows Nixon with HUGE leads in the gov race and  Barnes losing MO-06 by 10.

  linky

  by bawbie on Wed May 21, 2008 at 07:22:28 AM PDT

  •  Thanks for the find

    That's a significant tighetening.

    The history in MO between Obama/McCain SUSA Only

    03/14 - 03/16
    McCain  53%
    Obama  39%

    04/11 - 04/13
    McCain: 50%
    Obama: 42%

    Now:
    McCain: 48%
    Obama: 45%

    That's a Massive Movement and indicates significant Unity and Consolidation.

    by Steven R on Wed May 21, 2008 at 08:05:23 AM PDT

•  don't forget Udall

  Udall    - 47
  Schaffer - 41

  according to Ras.

  by BennyToothpick on Wed May 21, 2008 at 07:24:46 AM PDT

  •  If Obama will carry Colorado, Udall should

    endorse Obama to show a little team support.  So far, he seems like he is holding out for HRC.

    by lobo charlie on Wed May 21, 2008 at 07:32:57 AM PDT

    •  no

      he's holding out to not offend any clinton voters he needs to support him.

      he was quite loudly and openly critical of her gas tax pander.

      by bawbie on Wed May 21, 2008 at 07:51:06 AM PDT

•  Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada

  19 EVs there.  Only one less than Ohio.

  by Paleo on Wed May 21, 2008 at 07:30:49 AM PDT

•  The only group Obama isn't winning

  is Republicans.

  Sucks to be John McSame.

  by AppleP on Wed May 21, 2008 at 08:19:25 AM PDT