Obama needs to be careful on foreign policy.

During the past weeks or so , I've been very surprised on how foreign policy has all of a sudden become the #1 issue of the campaign , and what i find even more worrisome is the fact that the Obama camp were willing to help McCain push it at the forefront of domestic issues.

I understand that Obama feels extremily confident he can take McCain on foreign policy turf and soundly beat him , and although i have my doubt about that , Obama should be smart enough to not fight him primarily on this turf.

Obama also needs to understand McCain's only strengh is that many American respect him because of his military credencial and this same credencial fuels his foreign policy gravitas....While you may argue with McCain foreign-policy expetise , you cant argue with the fact that voters are more likely to trust him then Obama who is new on the block.

What makes it so hard for Obama on the foreign policy turf is the fact that he doesnt have anything to point out to voters which could convince them that he would be better on foreign policy.

Voters will most likely look at experience , years on the senate + military experience is of course a major plus for McCain.

If you were to ask me how would McCain engineer a victory in 2008 , i would tell you that his best hope is to try to push foreign policy as the #1 issue.

With gaz price at about $4 nationwide + home foreclsing and a lot of woes on the domestic front , i just cant explain why any democrat would even think of making foreign policy the #1 topic of the campaign.

What worries me so much is the ease on how McCain was just able to drag Obama into the foreign policy discussion and while many Kossak disagree , i think McCain really ran circle around him.

If you take a look at the latest rasmussenreports and Gallup tracking poll , you will notice that Obama is trending down and is trailing McCain by about 4% in both polls.

Obama's number started slipping right about the time McCain launched his foreign policy attacks on him.

My advice to Obama:
stop referring to McCain's military record on the stump because you're doing him a favor by reminding voters that he's an honorable man who served his country with great pride....This can only help McCain make a huge argument on why he should be trusted more then Obama to lead this country...If you think voters wont look at this thing , you are kidding yourself.

Obama should also hit McCain hard on domestic issues...How about running ads blaming McCain and the GOP on gas price.

How about taking the MoVEoN ad that they have on McCain manager , charlie black , which enphasize his ties to dictators , and run it in OH ,VA and other battleground states.

Obama needs to deviate from foreign policy by forcing McCain to talk about the economic and domestic issue..

Obama will lose if foreign policy becomes the #1 issue of the 08 campaign.

•  How do you solve a problem like Maria?

  Really, how?

  by PhantomFly on Wed May 28, 2008 at 07:33:20 AM PDT

•  I don't see what you're worried about.

  It's very simple.

  1. Americans hate this war.

  2. McCain loves this war.

  Oil and water.

  by droogie6655321 on Wed May 28, 2008 at 07:34:26 AM PDT

  •  Gallup poll

    Just look at the gallup tracking poll which is very good at ctahcing current events.

    When Obama made his bittergate gaffe , gallup showed him slipping....same thing happened when the Wright video went viral.

    same thing is happening right now and i believe it's because foreign policy has moved to the front of the campaign discussion.

    by BlueStateLiberal on Wed May 28, 2008 at 07:38:42 AM PDT

    •  Have any links?

      I'd like to see how people polled trust McCain and Obama on foreign policy issues. Because in general, the trend has been that people trust the Democrats more.

      by droogie6655321 on Wed May 28, 2008 at 07:40:36 AM PDT

      •  Yes, in fact...

        ...here it is:

        http://www.rasmussenreports.com/...

        by Ken in MN on Wed May 28, 2008 at 07:46:43 AM PDT

        •  Key graf:

          Perhaps the biggest surprise comes from the fact that Democrats are now trusted more when it comes to National Security and the War on Terror, an issue long considered a GOP stronghold. The latest polling, however, shows that 49% of voters now trust the Democrats more on this issue while 42% trust the Republicans more. This shift comes at the same time that confidence in the War on Terror has fallen significantly.

          Know what this means? It means the Republican advantage on this issue is vapor. We don't have to be afraid of them on national security anymore.

          by droogie6655321 on Wed May 28, 2008 at 07:48:50 AM PDT

          •  Obama vs McCain

            You have to poll McCain vs Obama on this issue , not democrats vs republicans..

            We already know McCAIN is running better then the GOP brand , so this is not a good example..

            Ive seen polls showing the public trust McCain more then Hillary or Obama on foreign policy , war on terror and Iraq.

            Obama is only getting about 70% of the base , and once Hillary drops out , he'll have a lot of work to do to get those clinton-democrats back into the fold.

            by BlueStateLiberal on Wed May 28, 2008 at 08:17:58 AM PDT

    •  Go read...

      ...yesterday's post by The Rude Pundit for comfort:

      http://rudepundit.blogspot.com/...

      by Ken in MN on Wed May 28, 2008 at 07:45:05 AM PDT

    •  actually, it corresponds

      with Clinton ratcheting up her attacks on Obama again.

      The Gallup tracking poll shows Obama with a 3 point gain in the days following the Knesset controversy and a massive boost of support among Democrats. The number ticked down again when Clinton restarted the Michigan/Florida hysteria.

      by Stroszek on Wed May 28, 2008 at 07:48:29 AM PDT

      •  Obama

        i just hope that once clinton drop out , Obama will be able to get much more then 70% of the base.

        Ther fact that he's only trailing by 4% when he lony gets 70 of democrats , is good news , but the bad news is that many have known Obama would be the nominee for about 2 weeks now , and still , the base is not coalesing around him as of yet.

        Matterfact , clinton holds more democrats then Obama which is surprising since she's been pronounce dead for a few weeks now.

        by BlueStateLiberal on Wed May 28, 2008 at 08:20:53 AM PDT

  •  Also, you attack an opponent on their

    preceived strengths and make them a liability.

    Classic "art of war".

    Just like they did to Kerry with swiftboating.

    It doesn't leave them with much when they lose their best strengths.

    I love how the Obama campaign is handling strategy.  Color me very impressed and I am not going to second guess them.

    by rick on Wed May 28, 2008 at 08:54:02 AM PDT

•  I think the GI Bill Vote

  Is one area Obama should continue to hammer McCain.

  How about a zen-like simplicity for our argument against McCain:  He supported this horrible war but he won't support the troops that have fought it.  

  Good points, though.  

  by The Bargeron on Wed May 28, 2008 at 07:35:08 AM PDT

  •  Simple always wins out.

    Bush-Kerry came down to one thing: I voted for it before I was against it.

    McCain, on the other hand, is a real live flip-flopper. And the positions he's flip-flopping toward are all Bush's.

    by droogie6655321 on Wed May 28, 2008 at 07:36:16 AM PDT

    •  KISS Wins every time (nt)

      by Tamifah on Wed May 28, 2008 at 07:41:17 AM PDT

    •  I agree

      The public was having a lot of doubts about Iraq by 2004, but Kerry couldn't effectively exploit this, due to his initial vote in favor of the Iraq War.

      by metal prophet on Wed May 28, 2008 at 08:43:29 AM PDT

•  If Obama doesn't pass this test, he'll lose

  I'm thrilled that he has taken command of the issue and is driving the discussion.  Essentially McCain is being forced to respond to Obama's initiative - that's a great position to be in.  Not only that McCain has completely blundered into a position where he's identical to Bush - I like our chances if McCain is morphed into Mr. 25%.

  by salsa0000 on Wed May 28, 2008 at 07:35:53 AM PDT

  •  Exactly

    if you can't beat the Bush/McCain foreign policy, you don't deserve to win.

    by zenbowl on Wed May 28, 2008 at 07:45:49 AM PDT

•  I think Barack is right to do this

  if he can even match him in the eyes of Americans he'll be way ahead because he slaughters McCain when it comes to domestic policy (see my diary from yesterday on Education as an example).

  by Muzikal203 on Wed May 28, 2008 at 07:36:12 AM PDT

•  No need to worry

  I have no doubt Obama will pivot soon enough to domestic issues, where he'll wipe the floor with McCain. These few weeks have given him an opportunity to test-drive some arguments on foreign policy. It seems to me like he's tweaking the machine, trying to find a way to neutralize McCain on foreign policy so he can bludgeon him on the home front. And even if more people might trust McCain on foreign policy, for now, the back and forth has allowed Obama to start to get under McCain's skin. The more the McCain campaign erupts at Obama, the more he looks like an old man yelling at a cloud.  

  by NHCt on Wed May 28, 2008 at 07:37:59 AM PDT

  •  agree and also

    I think he will keep feeding and feeding on the war and then when he pivots it will be by tieing the war and the bad economy so tight that it will not be able to be separated.  High gas? the wars fault...can't get healthcare? the war taking the money needed...dollar worthless?...the war...owe the Communist Bank of China our left leg and right arm? borrowed for the war...Social Security having problems? took out the money for the war

    Even when the connection is tenuious at best it will stick that our economy is in the toilet in big part because of the war

    by housesella on Wed May 28, 2008 at 07:55:55 AM PDT

  •  not pivot, link! link! link!

    We're blowing billions, trillions of American tax dollars on the Iraq debacle, a country we never should have invaded in the first place. Who got us into this mess and who wants to keep us there? Uh huh.

    Look, stupidity has a price tag. McCain made the mistake, but he wants the American people to keep paying the bill for it.

    by elmo on Wed May 28, 2008 at 08:04:49 AM PDT

•  disagree

  Obama is raising it now for two reasons:

  1. He wants to negate McCain's one advantage early, and shut down any spin that Obama would prefer to debate the economy because "he can't win a foreign policy debate."

  2. Foreign policy is the easiest, clearest way to link McCain to Bush.

  Obama doesn't want the election framed as "the economy vs. national security," he wants to challenge McCain's strength, link him to Bush via that strength, then transpose that Bush link onto the economy.

  by Stroszek on Wed May 28, 2008 at 07:37:59 AM PDT

  •  also

    After the Dems' internal issues are tidied up, Obama and his surrogates are going to get much more forceful about framing Iraq as an economic issue. This has long been planned as the centerpiece of the fall campaign by both the Clinton and Obama camps.

    by Stroszek on Wed May 28, 2008 at 07:39:34 AM PDT

  •  Excellent points

    Plus, once Obama bests McCain on foreign policy, he then routs him on economic issues.

    by metal prophet on Wed May 28, 2008 at 08:44:33 AM PDT

•  Obama will not lose on Foreign Policy to McSame

  Say Whaaaat

  Obama will lose if foreign policy becomes the #1 issue of the 08 campaign.

  McCain does not know the difference between Sunni and Shia to begin with. He is running on Hillary's Playbook and look at what happened to her.

  by Engine 08 on Wed May 28, 2008 at 07:38:15 AM PDT

  •  Foreign policy is McCain's Achilles heel, and

    attacking him on it is the quickest way to destroy him.

    McCain has a record of military service but he's never shown any understanding of foreign policy or national security issues. He's too lazy to learn anything about the political culture of Iraq and Iran, he simply does not understand the alignment of allied and insurgent camps in Iraq, he's incapable of appreciating the importance of diplomacy and the limits of a purely military response, and he is not even able to tell us what constitutes the "victory" he demands we continue pursuing.

    McCain's entire claim to the White House is based on his military interests, his obsession with "winning" the Iraq War. He repeatedly states he's running for "Commander-in-Chief" but never mentions the Presidency because he has no real interest in the latter.

    It would be fairly simple to demonstrate McCain would be an incompetent Commander-in-Chief. Demonstrate it and you utterly destroy his candidacy. And Obama is quite capable of demonstrating it. He has sound instincts on national security issues, a better understanding of how the US is seen abroad, and he's got very good advisors.

    There's a second reason why foreign policy needs to take center ground in this campaign: it's been pledged to us. For many of us ending the occupation of Iraq and avoiding unnecessary war with Iran are the two most important goals in this election. Obama has our confidence insofar as he focusses on these goals.

    by LanceBoyle on Wed May 28, 2008 at 08:07:18 AM PDT

•  Your concerns have been noted.

  Enjoy your worry, it is unfounded.

  America is NOT that stupid.

  (Looking at your diaries, you seem obsessed with concern.  Maybe you should try out for the McCain green stamps.)

  by Rian Fike on Wed May 28, 2008 at 07:38:15 AM PDT

  •  You put it best. Concerns well noted.

    by Engine 08 on Wed May 28, 2008 at 07:38:47 AM PDT

    •  Do we need to clear the air?

      

      by Rian Fike on Wed May 28, 2008 at 07:41:27 AM PDT

      •  Ah, someone's catching on!

        by PhantomFly on Wed May 28, 2008 at 07:42:18 AM PDT

        •  No need to be...

          ...so harsh peoples. I don't agree with the diarist's assertion either (Obama has to take this issue head on, and I would be disappointed if he didn't), but it is a perspective which may have some validity if what was said about the tracking polls is accurate. Attack the message not the messenger if you don't agree. Chances are there may be an insider in the Obama campaign who voiced similar concern.

          by Gut Check on Wed May 28, 2008 at 07:51:55 AM PDT

      •  troll or just a Democrat?

        Not sure if this fellow is a troll or just a poor soul traumatized by a Democratic Party unable to show some sack over the last eight years. What's so disarming about Obama is how when it comes to foreign policy, he's acting exactly the way the blogosphere has been demanding. So it's a little frightening to see a Dem actually take on a Republican on their "home turf." I admit I worry a bit myself, until I catch McCain yelling at a cloud again and feel better.

        by NHCt on Wed May 28, 2008 at 07:50:25 AM PDT

        •  Good points

          I think that Obama has definitely taken a lot of Democrats off-guard, since he's not like your typical election-loser Democrat that we're so used to. Actually, I've seen some Democrats who don't trust him BECAUSE Obama is an effective and charismatic public speaker, since they're used to dull speakers like Dukakis or Kerry. But I think that once skeptical Democrats get used to someone who is actually effective and forceful when need be, we'll have a very strong candidate in Obama.

          by metal prophet on Wed May 28, 2008 at 08:47:07 AM PDT

•  You make a really good point

  I wouldn't get too worked up about it just yet. I think the Obama campaign is still sort of testing the general election waters right now. They've been talking about Iran and then yesterday Obama pivots and starts talking about the foreclosure problem.

  They can't talk about foreign policy forever because everyone already knows where each of them stands. I think over the summer, the economic picture will get even bleaker. After Labor Day, people will start paying attention (and start thinking about heating their homes for the winter).

  Then we kill.

  by Ivey476 on Wed May 28, 2008 at 07:39:36 AM PDT

•  I know you

  are an Obama supporter but I will say you seem to have zero confidence in his campaign at times. Not saying that they do everything right but sometimes this day to day micro managing is questionable.
  The old theory is attack your opponents strength, right?
  The War in Iraq is still the single most damaging issue for the GOP. It is immensely unpopular and 70% of americans think it was a huge mistake. McCain and Bush own this war. Obama is not Kerry or HRC or Edwards having to defend a war vote. Now, I agree the economy is the other big issue and Obama hammered him yesterday on that..but you cannot avoid the foreign policy arena.

  I am confident that Obama can engage on foreign policy and more than hold his own because McCain has the bush foreign policy legacy around his neck like a anvil. McCain led Bush's efforts in the Senate to invade Iraq without bothering to read the NIE. Independents are sick of this war and McCain facilitated it by his 100% support of Bush push to war and occupation..

  This is a winning issue for the dems...just look at 2006.

  by Hawkjt on Wed May 28, 2008 at 07:40:38 AM PDT

  •  Did McCain

    admit publicly to not reading the NIE?

    by mel70 on Wed May 28, 2008 at 07:53:28 AM PDT

    •  He did not sign into

      the secure area for Senators who wanted to read the NIE. Like Hillary,Edwards,and most of the Senate.
      He cannot deny it.

      by Hawkjt on Wed May 28, 2008 at 08:52:14 AM PDT

•  looking from the other side of the atlantik

  i find it still odd how almost all seem to know
  that this goverment has not a good trackrecord when it comes to telling the truth.BUT YOU STILL BELIVE THE POLL RESULTS AND TAKE THEM AS FACT FOR DISCUSION
  What foreign policy are you talking about
  (blackmailing the rest of the world is maybe a strategy but no policy)
  or do you mean the wars where i am not shure if that topic will help MCSANE (you all look like you could need a little peace eh)

  by gerald 1969 on Wed May 28, 2008 at 07:40:53 AM PDT

•  Democrats didn't expose GOP failures...

  in 2000, 2002 and 2004, and lost all of these elections.

  Invading and occupying an Arab country that was no threat to us was the worst possible foreign policy decision the U.S. could have made, and McCain is 100% behind this disaster. Getting the American electorate to wake up to McCain's malfeasance is hard work, but it is necessary work to flush these misconceptions out of our collective brains.  Obama is doing a great job on this so far.

  by Greasy Grant on Wed May 28, 2008 at 07:41:41 AM PDT

  •  And, when we finally did confront the GOP...

    ...on foreign policy, in 2006, we won by very solid margins. And, in fact, many of the candidates who tried going the traditional DLC route of taking foreign policy off the table, ended up not benefiting from the anti-GOP climate.

    by metal prophet on Wed May 28, 2008 at 08:49:04 AM PDT

•  i think all obama has to do is neutralize mccain

  on foreign policy. he doesn't have to win b/c domestic policy tilts completely in his direction.

  by ye ye ye on Wed May 28, 2008 at 07:45:16 AM PDT

  •  Obama Has The Strenght Of 70% of Americans Who

    Are sick and tired, so your title is misleading. McCain is attacking Obama from a position of weakness, which is futile.

    by DFutureIsNow on Wed May 28, 2008 at 07:48:10 AM PDT

•  diarist is wrong

  I agree with some commentators, Obama needs to neutralize McPaid on foreign policy issues and for sure is going to beat McSameBush on domesitic issues.

  by jeanba on Wed May 28, 2008 at 07:55:21 AM PDT

•  When it comes to foreign policy, I think

  Obama needs to emphasize that he is a multi-lateralist in an increasingly multi-lateral world. The USA needs to carve out its place at the multi-lateral table and forgo the 'bully' gunboat policies of Bush/McSame. We are being left in the dust by the BRIC countries when it comes to diplomatic and economic relationships with the emerging countries of the world.  The unilateral bullying policies of Bush and the war in Iraq have made USA the most hated country in the world.  We need 'smart' policies and negotiations that make America stronger rather than the bullying policies that have obviously made America weaker.  McCain's foreign policies are those of the past, policies of Bush and do not see that globalization and inter-connectedness of communication have really changed the world.
        I don't think Obama should fear taking on McSame when it comes to foreign policy; Obama just needs to offer a course that is future-directed, encompassing, that seeks a peaceful course but is unafraid of necessary military action to protect the country but a policy that welcomes change and is not fear-based. We need to find another 'Manifest Destiny' but one that is directed to bringing stability in the world, increasing the strength of America here at home in rebuilding its infrastructure and manufacturing base and that real leadership is not isolationist.

  by Jbeaudill on Wed May 28, 2008 at 08:26:04 AM PDT

•  You attack your opponent...

  ....where they're strong, and then they have nothing to stand on. That's something that Karl Rove understood very well. McCain's only (perceived) strength is foreign policy, so we can't ignore the issue. Indeed, we attack him head on and destroy his unearned credibility on that issue.

  by metal prophet on Wed May 28, 2008 at 08:40:12 AM PDT

•  Also:

  You're basically recycling the Democratic strategy of 2002, which was to let the Republicans have their way on foreign policy and then try to win on economic issues. We thought that by taking foreign policy off the table, we could use our strengths to best effect. Well, you remember how well that turned out. Your idea is a foolish one.

  by metal prophet on Wed May 28, 2008 at 08:41:41 AM PDT

•  Here is where the D[umb]s lose.

  With 82% of the country stating in polls that Bush has led the country astray and not liking the direction the county is headed, the Democrats still fear to give up beligerance as a political tool!

  They are ALWAYS shy of being thought anti-war and pro-people.  Gosh, lets not have any of that showcasing of human rights stuff, ok?  No grandstanding for peace, ok?  Just keep the troops behind their guns and let the media spin "democracy" into a web of dollars for the mercinaries during government privatization.

  It is too clear to me that the Democrats have no plan that is measurably different from the Republicans or this issue would not be a quandry for left-wingers.

  by Silverbird on Wed May 28, 2008 at 08:56:45 AM PDT

•  Go after their strengths

  especially when they are really weaknesses. Obama is showing that he is not afraid to engage in foreign policy. Watch what happens over time, not this week's Gallup poll.

  by JavaManny on Wed May 28, 2008 at 09:14:47 AM PDT

•  years of experience..

  at failure cannot be used as a plus against a younger opponent, such as "McCain has years of experience in Foreign Policy."  It is like saying "The Cubs have years of experience in MLB, so it makes them better than the Diamondbacks."  

  The whole experience argument is ridiculous.  It happens at my work all the time.  Newer guys like myself have new ideas that would make our processes cheaper and more efficient.  However, there are dinosaurs who say, "We have been doing it this way for 20 years, and it still works."  Just because it is older does not make it better overall.

  I think Obama is right to attack McCain at his perceived strong point, because it will expose McCain for what he really is: a charlatan posing as a pro-military, anti-establishment maverick.  

  We are all seeing now that he is just more of the same broken bureaucracy/oligarchy that has driven our country into the ground for the last 28 years.  If McCain doesn't have his foreign policy "I am a war hero" shield to prop him up, he is just an older and dumber (is that possible?) George Bush.

  by rickrocket on Wed May 28, 2008 at 09:47:19 AM PDT