Why I've stopped worrying about Hillary

People have been discussing whether Hillary "needs" to win North Carolina. If Hillary comes within 10 in North Carolina, it proves Obama has been weakened. Unpleasant to contemplate. But reality.

The catch is that Hillary doesn't just need to convince a supermajority of the uncommitted superdelegates that he's been weakened. She needs to convince them that she's more electable than he is.

Even if she were running for the Democratic nomination effectively unopposed, given the, uh, strong reactions people have to her, it requires the maximum application of the McSame negatives to picture her having even an underdog chance at a GE victory.

But it's far worse than that. If the superdelegates give the nomination to her, she'll be starting with what should be her own bedrock of support among registered Democrats riddled with fissures of resentment. [continued]

I don't think the superdelegates are looking at the national polls half a year out from the general election. You want a demonstration?

Quickly, without looking it up, can you name whichever political story most had people's knickers in a twist in December 2007?

[And if you're reading this, you're in the top 1% of the population in terms of your currency with this shit.]

No, I think the superdelegates are looking at who has raised the most money. Who has shown the best organizing skills. Whose grassroots support seems more of a future asset to the down-ticket.

And as the post-PA SD declarations by elected officials have shown, they are almost unanimously replying to Hillary, if not in so many words, "If he's weakened, it's largely your fault. Once we get rid of you, we can start dealing with it."

•  I stopped worrying a long time ago

  she lost.

  by Feanor on Sat May 03, 2008 at 10:05:43 AM PDT

  •  Yes. But I still worry about...

    ...how badly she'll hurt Obama for the GE.

    A long time ago (as these things are measured) I thought she was a Party player.  No more.

    by Jaime Frontero on Sat May 03, 2008 at 10:35:03 AM PDT

•  Tip jar for first-time diarist

  Celebrate with the intoxicant of your choice the return of Guamentum!

  by Joe Beese on Sat May 03, 2008 at 10:05:45 AM PDT

•  I actually remember the issue back then

  It was Obama's teenage drug use, Mark Penn and others in the Clinton camp were making it a huge issue. Haven't heard about it since. Same thing with Wright 6 months from now

  by Johnnythebandit on Sat May 03, 2008 at 10:08:24 AM PDT

  •  great job!

    I was raking my brains

    by wuod kwatch on Sat May 03, 2008 at 10:20:45 AM PDT

  •  We should have paid more attention to...

    "I didn't inhale."

    In retrospect, we can see that everything always depended on what the meaning of "is" is.

    by Joe Beese on Sat May 03, 2008 at 10:24:42 AM PDT

  •  No. Wright won't go away. n/t

    by Jaime Frontero on Sat May 03, 2008 at 10:35:53 AM PDT

  •  Who's Mark Penn?

    I seem to remember a guy by that name...a guy who was helping pass a trade deal that his candidate claimed to oppose. But it's all foggy now. Maybe if he'd been a black pastor I would remember. But I barely read or heard anything about the obvious hypocrisy, so perhaps it never happened...

    by Johnny Gentle Famous Crooner on Sat May 03, 2008 at 10:57:07 AM PDT

•  it would get rid of the excuse

  This will probably get a negative reaction from some, but I think if they get rid of Hillary, then the "white working class" (read: tendency to not vote for an AA) will have no excuse.  While Hillary is still in the race, people can say they prefer her for other reasons, but if it's just Obama and McSame, there will be nothing to hide behind--unless they're willng to switch parties.  Then, maybe the ridiculous pundits will switch it up from why the AA candidate can't appeal to the "white working class" to asking the real question:  why the "white working class" they won't vote for an AA. And the answer will be pretty clear.

  by livjack on Sat May 03, 2008 at 10:10:34 AM PDT

•  You've learned to love the bomb?

  by mr crabby on Sat May 03, 2008 at 10:10:44 AM PDT

  •  No,

    I've learned to love the Obama!

    by god doc on Sat May 03, 2008 at 10:37:46 AM PDT

•  She's broke; he's flush

  That's the argument that's really going to weigh with the supers (though no one will ever admit on the teevee) and that's why I've stopped worrying about Hillary.

  by houyhnhnm on Sat May 03, 2008 at 10:15:37 AM PDT

•  I Don't Worry About Her Getting The Nomination

  I worry that the burden of reconciling Hillary supporters will be entirely with Obama.

  by HL Mungo on Sat May 03, 2008 at 10:19:23 AM PDT

•  She is desperate, has no quams about lying.

  Who knows what she and her team will do next. I am not worried but your dam right "I am concerned".

  by humphrey on Sat May 03, 2008 at 10:21:44 AM PDT

•  It's not Clinton that I ever worried about.

  It's her republican alliance and the concern about what promises she made to them to get their support to defeat Obama.

  by nupstateny on Sat May 03, 2008 at 10:28:52 AM PDT

•  U.S. News & World Report and Hillary chance

  It not happening for Hillary
  She could catch up and surpass Obama in the popular vote by the time the Democratic primary wraps in June. That, however, would be an improbable mathematical feat. U.S. News & World Report political analyst Michael Barone has calculated she would need to win 60 percent of the vote in Pennsylvania, 45 percent in North Carolina, and 60 percent in Indiana, and current polls just don’t support those margins

  by RomeyDa on Sat May 03, 2008 at 10:30:45 AM PDT

•  You can't worry

  This is going to play exactly the way HRC wants it to play out. All we can do is work to mitigate the damage that HRC and her consorts in the media is doing and will do to Barack.

  America may be way past redemption and if so we will see that in the fall.

  by kiki236 on Sat May 03, 2008 at 10:32:17 AM PDT

•  Only worried if Clinton wins IN,NC, and OR

  I think for O to be forced to withdraw for good of the party he would have to lose almost every remaining state. A total campaign meltdown. Not impossible by any means.

  But I feel pretty confident if he wins the last big state , NC, by any margin the supers will start flocking to him.

  by reformerdc on Sat May 03, 2008 at 10:39:19 AM PDT

•  BTW- the convention will turn everything around

  versus McCain. It's amazing how Dems come together and the whole campaign starts fresh once the conventions happen.

  Hats off to O for remaining civil and above the fray in the Democratic primaries so as to make the  coming-together easier ( I wouldn't have been able to take the BS O has endured, I would have ripped the Clintons a new one).

  by reformerdc on Sat May 03, 2008 at 10:42:57 AM PDT

  •  I'm not sure many of us would have had the

    level-headedness of Obama to not take the bait and switch to attack mode.  Heck, diaries are written daily here begging his campaign to exploit her obvious weaknesses and hypocrisy.

    The fact that he is winning and will win is evidence that there can be a new kind of politics. He is the type of leader we deserve after such a long period of dirty politics. History will treat Clinton harshly as it looks back on her campaign.

    by leawood on Sat May 03, 2008 at 10:56:01 AM PDT

•  If I had ANY confidence

  that this was a real democracy any longer, then the numbers suggest what should and ought to happen.

  However, Bush happened; a ne'er do well son of a former President; a media blackout on appropriate vetting, etc.  and he was still elected.  

  I am watching the corporate media enacting the same crap they did with Bush, and since many of them made their careers campaigning for the Clintons, (see the War Room- which CNN has adopted as it's theme in The Situation Room) and Stuffyourawfulness and Scarville are still talking heads; they have a personal investment in trashing Obama, so the giant milkflow to their personal coffers and powerbase can continue, not to mention the fact that their bosses/owners, are the private backers of an increasingly corporate propaganda that furthers the interests of a very, very few;

  Clinton has done mighty well in a few short years since NAFTA, and she has made only token efforts at any real Democratic platform through her "efforts" at legilation.  She is the top campaigner; not a leader.

  by Septima on Sat May 03, 2008 at 10:44:00 AM PDT

•  I still worry

  She's not going to go quietly.  She's "in it to win it," and although that is not likely to occur, she appears to be willing to pursue that goal with every sink that she can hurl.

  This has become a battle for the soul of the Democratic Party, and the DLC and every organ of the establishment are going to fight BHO's threat of real change with all that they've got.

  Ever wonder what the world looks like to her die-hard supporters?  I suggest that you take a peek over at TalkLeft.com.  It's a bizarro universe over there, and everything is breaking her way.

  by pelops on Sat May 03, 2008 at 10:49:02 AM PDT

•  after watching Obama last night

  the democratic party would have to be total idiots to not know where the future is.  It was starkly simple.

  by Livvy5 on Sat May 03, 2008 at 10:49:23 AM PDT

  •  AHHHHHMENNN and Hallelujah

    He was on his game and now that Wright has been put to bed (oh yes he has) this will be a no brainer for the Supers not to mention the country in November.
    Phone bank, people!

    by The Marthas on Sat May 03, 2008 at 10:53:49 AM PDT

•  I've stopped worrying about Hillary

  And started worrying about Barack.

  I now think she's a stronger candidate in the General Election. But the only way she can do it is, to win without alienating black voters forever.  

  It's all out of my hands now and I can just sit back and watch the oncoming train wreck.

  by stephdray on Sat May 03, 2008 at 10:56:56 AM PDT

•  ummmm

  who's Hillary again?

  by jbjowe on Sat May 03, 2008 at 11:18:30 AM PDT

•  I gave up worrying long ago

  SDs will make sure the nominee is the pledged vote winner.  There have been enough strong hints of that from a multitude of sources.

  And Sen. Obama is going to win the pledged delegate race on May 20 when he goes over 1627.

  by Satya1 on Sat May 03, 2008 at 11:20:31 AM PDT

•  Why I've stopped worrying about Hillary

  Because Obama has already won!

  by in2mixin on Sat May 03, 2008 at 11:35:34 AM PDT

•  The horror. The horror.

  I'm worried that I might have to keep hearing that voice smugly proclaiming bullsh*t and thinking she is coming across as likable.

  by LanceThruster on Sat May 03, 2008 at 03:39:04 PM PDT