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Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 5/20-21. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines)

Lummis (R) 41
Trauner (D) 44

This is for the open at-large Wyoming seat Gary Trauner almost captured in 2006 (he came up 1,000 votes short).

I've also got presidential numbers:

McCain (R) 53
Obama (D) 40

This is a state Kerry lost 69-29. If Obama can keep it within 20 points, it makes Trauner's job that much easier.

Full cross-tabs below the fold.

On the web:
Gary Trauner for Congress
Blue Majority ActBlue page

WYOMING POLL RESULTS - MAY 2008
                                                                 
The Research 2000 Wyoming Poll was conducted from May 20 through May 21, 2008. A total of 500 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.  

Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4.5% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.


SAMPLE FIGURES:

Men                 244   (49%)
Women               256   (51%)

Democrats           120   (24%)
Republicans         239   (48%)
Independents/Other  141   (28%)

18-29                89   (18%)
30-44               150   (30%)
45-59               166   (33%)
60+                  95   (19%)


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Gary Trauner? (If favorable or unfavorable, ask if it is very or not):

                   VERY                   VERY    NO
                    FAV     FAV   UNFAV   UNFAV   OPINION  

ALL                 14%     38%     19%     12%     17%

MEN                 12%     36%     23%     14%     15%
WOMEN               16%     40%     15%     10%     19%
DEMOCRATS           26%     55%      6%      3%     10%
REPUBLICANS          7%     27%     30%     19%     17%
INDEPENDENTS        16%     43%     12%      8%     21%    
18-29               15%     39%     18%     10%     18%
30-44               15%     38%     18%     11%     18%
45-59               13%     37%     20%     14%     16%
60+                 14%     38%     20%     13%     15%


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Cynthia Lummis? (If favorable or unfavorable, ask if it is very or not):

                   VERY                   VERY    NO
                    FAV     FAV   UNFAV   UNFAV   OPINION  

ALL                 12%     37%     18%     11%     22%

MEN                 13%     38%     18%     10%     21%
WOMEN               11%     36%     18%     12%     23%
DEMOCRATS            5%     22%     38%     25%     10%
REPUBLICANS         17%     47%      6%      4%     26%
INDEPENDENTS         9%     33%     22%     10%     26%
18-29               10%     35%     19%     12%     24%
30-44               11%     37%     19%     11%     22%
45-59               14%     38%     17%     11%     20%
60+                 13%     38%     17%     10%     22%


QUESTION: If the election for Congress were held today, would you vote for Gary Trauner, the Democrat, or Cynthia Lummis, the Republican?

                  TRAUNER     LUMMIS      UNDECIDED        

ALL                 44%         41%         15%

MEN                 41%         45%         14%
WOMEN               47%         37%         16%
DEMOCRATS           85%         11%          4%
REPUBLICANS         15%         62%         23%
INDEPENDENTS        58%         32%         10%
18-29               46%         39%         15%
30-44               45%         40%         15%
45-59               43%         42%         15%
60+                 43%         43%         14%
NORTH               41%         45%         14%  
SOUTH               47%         37%         16%


QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the job George W. Bush is doing as President?

                  APPROVE     DISAPPROVE

ALL                 47%         53%

MEN                 51%         49%
WOMEN               43%         57%
DEMOCRATS            8%         92%
REPUBLICANS         72%         28%
INDEPENDENTS        38%         62%
18-29               44%         56%
30-44               46%         54%
45-59               49%         51%
60+                 49%         51%                            


QUESTION: If the election for President were held today, who would you vote for if the choice were between Barack Obama, the Democrat, and John McCain, the Republican?

                  MCCAIN      OBAMA       UNDECIDED

ALL                 53%         40%          7%    

MEN                 58%         37%          5%        
WOMEN               48%         43%          9%
DEMOCRATS            7%         88%          5%
REPUBLICANS         81%         11%          8%
OTHER               44%         48%          8%
18-29               49%         44%          7%
30-44               53%         39%          8%
45-59               55%         38%          7%
60+                 56%         38%          6%
NORTH               57%         37%          6%
SOUTH               48%         44%          8%

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Fri May 30, 2008 at 08:05 AM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  To GOP irrelevance at federal government levels! (8+ / 0-)

    n/t

    The doctor said I wouldn't have so many nose bleeds if I kept my finger outta there. - Ralph Wiggum

    by jim bow on Fri May 30, 2008 at 08:07:52 AM PDT

  •  God, somebody help me here. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JohnGor0, MKSinSA

    I went to the link and it looked like there were 6 Republican candidates in the primary for this seat. Has Wyoming already had their primary and should I assume from the info above that Lummis is the opponent? I ask this because whenever I read coverage of the Alaskan primary, there is a candidate that is typically not even mentioned and she is definitely running.

    Just trying to figure out what is going on and who Gary is up against.

    Just because your voice reaches halfway around the world doesn't mean you are wiser than when it reached only to the end of the bar. Edward R. Murrow

    by Pager on Fri May 30, 2008 at 08:13:01 AM PDT

    •  The primary is in August (6+ / 0-)

      barring disaster for Lummis, she's the heavily favored Republican in this. But yeah, there are a lot of them running.

      Those who would give up Essential Liberty to purchase a little Temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety. -- Ben Franklin

      by Joan McCarter on Fri May 30, 2008 at 08:30:03 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Thanks much, Joan. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MKSinSA

        Yeah, a half dozen, from the look of it. I think that actually helps Trauner quite a bit. Let the Republicans spend time and money until August while he sits pretty.

        Just because your voice reaches halfway around the world doesn't mean you are wiser than when it reached only to the end of the bar. Edward R. Murrow

        by Pager on Fri May 30, 2008 at 08:31:30 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yup, a case of a late primary (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Randall Sherman

          potentially helping us. It doesn't always work that way. Washington state has a very late primary, the third week of September, and in 2004, that really hurt Gregoire. It was a very competitive, and bruising at the end, primary. She didn't have a lot of time to recover for November.

          Let's hope we have a little bit of that bruising on teh R side in Wyoming.

          Those who would give up Essential Liberty to purchase a little Temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety. -- Ben Franklin

          by Joan McCarter on Fri May 30, 2008 at 08:36:06 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  I Disagree - (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        kainah, MKSinSA

        Lummis is only moderately popular among the Goppers in the state.
        Gordon has lots of bucks to use to win in the primary.

        Most people in GOP the know his personal story -
        Gordon's wife was killed in a hit and run accident when their two daughters were small.  He was a single dad until he remarried a few years back.  Lummis has name recognition, but she is viewed by many Goppers as a party insider and captive of Cheyenne - both of which can be huge handicaps in a party that thinks Wyoming created itself out of thin air.

        (No state has been and continues to be more dependent on federal $$$)

  •  very promising (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TheUnknown285, beltane, MKSinSA

    fav/unfav ratings by independents.  I hope the Repugs try that stupid "tie him to Obama" tactic that has been working so well for them in the special elections.

    Insight into change teaches us hope. No matter how bad the situation, anything is possible. - Buddha

    by zenbowl on Fri May 30, 2008 at 08:13:18 AM PDT

  •  Wow, Obama gets 88% of Dems in WY. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TheUnknown285, echatwa, MKSinSA

    That is astounding!  Awesome.

  •  All well & good, BUT... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MKSinSA

    It's the senate races that are most key especially if we're looking at criminal investigations against this administration, Supreme Court choices, etc. We have the House. Can you post more updates about Senate races? Thanks.

    •  keep reading (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MKSinSA

      this place(and ssp)has senate updates all the time

    •  Disagree (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Dallasdoc, MKSinSA

      All levers of government are important, and I'll take a Democrat in power wherever I can get one.

      In the House, Democrats still must vote on ending the Iraq War, universal health care, indexing the minimum wage, etc.  Those are items where Democrats need every vote they can get.

      Also, the more Democrats, the closer we can get to 2/3 majority for overriding Presidential vetoes if (ugh) there is a Republican President.

      Every public office counts.  That's the essence of the 50-state strategy.

      The doctor said I wouldn't have so many nose bleeds if I kept my finger outta there. - Ralph Wiggum

      by jim bow on Fri May 30, 2008 at 08:44:53 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  House is important, too. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Dallasdoc

      Those Chet Edwardses and Gene Taylors are great for keeping Republicans out of solid Red districts, but we need a bigger majority to be on sure footing, because there will ALWAYS be some Democrats who defect.  The FISA fight shows us that.

      You can think of the need for a bigger majority as DINO insurance, if you want.  More accurately, some Democrats, whatever their private inclinations, are required to vote in accordance with the will of the voters in their district, unless they're interested in losing to a Republican monster next time around.

      If we can improve our majority to, say, 267 seats, there will be that many more Democrats from "red" seats, to whom we can afford to give political cover to vote with the district instead of the party in case of conflict, without losing the overall vote.

      There's a lot of talk here about winning many Senate seats so that we will not need Traitor Joe's vote.  It's just as important to increase our House majority so as not to need most of the blue dog caucus's vote either.  Blue dogs are certainly better than Republicans, in districts that are not yet ready for a kick-ass progressive.  But they're not always reliable.

      GO TRAUNER!

      Friggin' WYOMING!

      "...And I woulda got away with it, if it hadn't been for that meddling Kos!" ---attributed to Tom DeLay

      by AdmiralNaismith on Fri May 30, 2008 at 11:24:03 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  That 30 days ad is killing the page loading (0+ / 0-)
  •  Confused (0+ / 0-)

    Whi is it Wy-AL?

    I always think it is some weird combination of Wyoming and Alabama

  •  To those who have never met Gary Trauner... (7+ / 0-)

    please consider supporting him with a contribution.

    I met Gary at DKos convention last year, and discovered we knew people in common.  It's a long damn way from my home to where Gary lives, and yet we knew more than one person in common.

    Why does this matter?  Well, it takes a fairly broad spectrum of interest and the ability to make strangers feel comfortable enough with you to get to those "degrees of separation" with people.  That, to me, shows some raw natural political talent.

    On the more generic front, I found him thoughtful, bright, and has a deep understanding of the need to connect people through their common interests.

    So pony up, please.

    Subverting the dominant paradigm every chance I get. And I get a lot of chances.

    by Casey Morris on Fri May 30, 2008 at 08:23:38 AM PDT

    •  Seconded (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Christopher Walker, Casey Morris

      Gary Trauner is a remarkable person, as even a casual meeting shows.  I've adopted him for monthly donations, along with four other House challengers.

      He's a terrific candidate who almost won last year, and WY is a very cheap market so your donation dollars go a long way there.  Trauner's a wonderful political investment for us small donors.

      Hanoi didn't break John McCain, but Washington did.

      by Dallasdoc on Fri May 30, 2008 at 11:42:01 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  and the money goes a long way in WY (3+ / 0-)

      We have to have one of the cheapest media markets going. So, yes, consider making a contribution (you can use the link in my sig line) because $10 in Wyoming is probably about the same as $50 in NY or CA.

      Turn the Mountain West blue! Support Gary Trauner for Wyoming's only House seat!

      by kainah on Fri May 30, 2008 at 12:55:49 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Again Obama overperforms (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TheUnknown285, echatwa, MKSinSA

    in the Western states.  If Obama gets 42% in WY, Trauner wins.  Clinton's 30% would mean that Trauner would lose.

    Too bad Freudenthal or someone else didn't run for the Senate seat.  We would have picked it up.  

    The Clintons are corrupt selfish race baiting zero character scumbags. I'd rather be run over by a tractor-trailer than willfully vote for any Clinton again.

    by IhateBush on Fri May 30, 2008 at 08:36:21 AM PDT

    •  two Senate seats up (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Christopher Walker

      Actually, both of our Senate seats are up. Enzi on regular cycle and Barrasso must run to finish out Craig Thomas's term. I'm not sure we could have picked up either of them, even if Freudenthal had gotten into the race. It will be huge if we can elect Trauner and that's where the focus will be for most of the Dem-leaning political volunteers. Obama at the top of the ticket will definitely help; Clinton would make the job much harder.

      Turn the Mountain West blue! Support Gary Trauner for Wyoming's only House seat!

      by kainah on Fri May 30, 2008 at 12:58:18 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Whoa, Pardner - (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    kainah, JohnGor0, Randall Sherman, MKSinSA

    Lummis is not necessarily going to be the GOP candidate.
    Many Goppers are lukewarm on her -
    Another candidate of the Huckabee/GOP mold is challenging her - Mark Gordon.
    http://www.gordon08.com/
    He is a rancher with deep pockets.

    According to at least one poll, he has a lead over Lummis.
    http://electionadvantage.blogspot.co...
    The primary is in August.

    So the polling data above should be viewed with a grain of salt.
    Lummis is not a shoo-in for the GOP nomination.

    Regardless of who gets the nomination, neither is as unpopular as Cubin was.  In a state with 2 to 1 GOP registration, it will be a tough race.

    I know, I did a lot of volunteer work last go round.
    Election night '06 was tough.

  •  Deciding factor will be Dem voter registrations (0+ / 0-)

    Last time around in 2006 you had
    Dem - 67,246 (25.56%)
    Rep - 162,952 (61.94%)

    The difference this time will be in voter registrations by party. I think Dems will pick up quite a few in this round which will help the down ticket immensely.

  •  Voter Registration (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TheUnknown285, Involuntary Exile

    Voter Registration for Wyoming - as of May 2, 2008
    Democrats:  59822  27.24%
    Republicans:  136968  62.36%
    Unaffliated:  22234
    Other:  611
    Total:  219635
    A slight improvement over 2006, with more gains hoped for by November.

  •  Whoa, I was confused for a minute (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TheUnknown285

    I thought I saw 51-44, but it's 41-44.  Looking good!

    Pragmatic progressivism is the future.

    by Pragmaticus on Fri May 30, 2008 at 09:29:43 AM PDT

  •  has anybody (0+ / 0-)

    seen any polls for South Carolina recently? The only one I know of was back in the end of Febuary?  Barack was only 3% behind Mcsame and it would be interesting to see a current poll.

    Free Tibet! We help those with the means to help themselves ~ Republican motto (from Family Guy)

    by Calev on Fri May 30, 2008 at 09:30:47 AM PDT

  •  48% Republican (0+ / 0-)

    Ouch. That has to be the highest percentage of registered Republicans in the country, doesn't it?

  •  Barr (0+ / 0-)

    How does Barr run in Wyoming.  I would imagine he could help a lot there.

    •  not sure (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      johnnygunn, Christopher Walker

      I always expect the Libertarians to do better than they usually end up doing. For a long time, they were a recognized party in the state with automatic ballot access because they kept hitting the magic qualifying number in the previous election. (I think it's 5 or 10%.) But they rarely got above that and, a few years ago, they didn't even make it so they lost their automatic standing. Libertarian philosophy is very big in WY but the votes don't usually end up supporting the party the way one would expect.

      Turn the Mountain West blue! Support Gary Trauner for Wyoming's only House seat!

      by kainah on Fri May 30, 2008 at 01:03:36 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I don't think we want Barr there (0+ / 0-)

      The problem is that he will get the disgruntled Republicans out to vote instead of letting them sit at home. They may not vote Libertarian for president, but they will vote Republican in downticket races, such as in the Trauner-Lummis congressional race.

  •  And by the way (2+ / 0-)

    The cook PVI for WY-AL is R+19. If the Republicans can't hold a seat as red as this, they're officially in full collapse.

    •  They may hold it (0+ / 0-)

      But they'll have to send Dick Cheney to prop up their loathesome candidate.  Which means he won't be fighting us as much in the tossup districts.

      We had a lot of close districts in deep red sagebrush country in 2006 (NE-3, ID-1, CO-5, NV-2, WA-5, etc.), and we lost almost all of them as squeakers.  Didn't mean those weren't worth fighting, as it took GOP attention away from many other districts, which we did win.

      "...And I woulda got away with it, if it hadn't been for that meddling Kos!" ---attributed to Tom DeLay

      by AdmiralNaismith on Fri May 30, 2008 at 11:28:00 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  We could even count it a victory (0+ / 0-)

      if we keep the Repub within single digits.  And with the Repubs likely having to throw in everything but the kitchen sink to protect Marilyn Musgrave in nearby CO-4 ... ahhh, I love the smell of napalm.

      Support our troops--end waterboarding!

      by Christian Dem in NC on Fri May 30, 2008 at 11:40:15 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Oh yeah, baby! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    kainah

    I want this one... wanted it in 2006 and came oh so close... want it big time this cycle.

    I guess everyone's got their own blog now.

    by zonk on Fri May 30, 2008 at 10:29:58 AM PDT

  •  Only 13 points? In Wyoming? (0+ / 0-)

    Holy crap ... I just looked it up, and aside from 1992 (when Bill Clinton came within 5 points largel due to Perot), we haven't come close to winning this state since 1992.

    So if McCain wins by less than 15 here, can we assume that the dam has officially burst?

    Support our troops--end waterboarding!

    by Christian Dem in NC on Fri May 30, 2008 at 11:38:05 AM PDT

  •  no difference between age groups (0+ / 0-)

    Almost everywhere else, young people are more likely to vote liberal than old people.

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