Daily Kos

Final Indiana Prediction Roundup *UPDATED* (with updated homemade Map!)

by ObamaManiac2008

Sun May 04, 2008 at 09:04:52 PM PDT

    I think I finally figured out why so many pollsters are having such a tough time polling Indiana.  It's because Indiana is the only state that has a law which prevents pollsters from using automated machines.  This might be one of the reasons why the polls have been all over the place.  We've gone through entire cycles of Obama being ahead, then Clinton, and so on.  

UPDATE:  NEW ZOGBY POLL:  Obama 44   Clinton 42.  Obama trails white voters by just 7 points!

SECOND UPDATE:  Poblano has posted his excellent analysis at fivethirtyeight.com regarding Indiana.  He was within 1.8% of the popular vote in Pennsylvania using his prediction model.  His model says HRC will win Indiana by 2 points 51% to 49%.  http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/...

    In an article published a couple of days ago, Insider Advantage bemoaned the Indiana state law, claiming that it is unfair and makes for unreliable polling results.  They claim that automated polling is more accurate than live polling.  I really don't know much about that, but if that is true, we could be in for some relative surprises.

    My latest prediction is going to be a daring one:  Obama wins the popular vote by 2 tenths of a percentage point, and they split the delegates 36 - 36.  

    Most people look at a state like Indiana and think that Clinton has a clear advantage.  But let's not forget that Indiana has a higher percentage of high school graduates, a lower median age, and a lower percentage of seniors than the United States as a whole.  Also, there are far fewer white Catholics in Indiana as compared with Ohio or Pennsylvania.

    That having been said, these differences are mitigated by the fact that Southern Indiana has a lot in common demographically with Southern Ohio, though Clinton's margin of victory will likely be less than it was in that portion of Ohio.

Overall, I think the regional differences in Indiana will make the results shape up like this:

                      % of vote      Obama    Clinton
Northern Indiana           30          55         45
Central Indiana            40          54         46
(incl. Terre Haute)
Southern Indiana           30          40         60
(incl. Bloomington)

These results give Obama 50.1% of the vote to Clinton's 49.9%.  (Were the Guam results a bellwether?)

This of course, depends on a few key things:

  1.  That Obama is able to win some of the Northwest counties by comfortable margins.
  1.  That Obama is able to tie or narrowly win Allen County
  1.  That Obama is able to win Marion County by 20 points or more and win a couple of the surburban counties (Hendricks and Hamilton, for instance).
  1.  That Obama is able to win Monroe County (Bloomington) by huge margins.
  1.  That Obama is able to win Tippecanoe County.  (the median age there is 28 so I see no reason why he can't)

    A huge win in Monroe County (60-40 or better) would offset many of the other Southern Indiana counties where Clinton is likely to win by 30 points or more.  In many ways, Monroe County is similar to Centre County in Pennsylvania where Obama won by the exact margin of 60% to 40% (which matched my exact prediction for that county).  But Monroe County has an even younger electorate so that should work to Obama's favor.  

    I also expect Obama to be somewhat competitive in Evansville and the Louisville area - perhaps limiting Clinton's margins there to 15 or 20 points.  Generally, I believe that as Allen County goes, so goes the state in this closely fought Democratic primary.  Of all the recent primaries, I believe that this one has the greatest chance to turn out like Missouri did - with many of the pollsters showing a slight margin for Clinton, but with Obama edging her on election day.

    After having received a lot of feedback from Indiana voters on this site, I have revised my map of Indiana and included a reference map:

title=
Dark Blue - Obama strong
Blue - Obama
White - tie or tossup
Red - Clinton
Dark Red - Clinton strong

And here is a reference map of the counties:
title=

And now, a recap of the different districts and how they should split up

IN-01:  6 delegates, Northwest Indiana.  This district is 35% ethnic minority.  I predict Obama will just barely squeak past the 58.4% to get the 4-2 split.  I could be wrong though.  CQ thinks it will be a 3-3 split.

IN-02:  6 delegates, South Bend area.  This should be roughly a tie for a 3-3 split.

IN-03:  4 delegates, Fort Wayne/Northeast Indiana.  Clinton will take it narrowly perhaps but it should be a 2-2 split.

IN-04:  4 delegates, Western Indy suburbs plus Lafayette.  I predict Obama will win the district narrowly for a 2-2 split.

IN-05:  4 delegates, Eastern and Northern Indy suburbs and northeast of there.  Should be somewhat close for a 2-2 split

IN-06:  5 delegates, Eastern Indiana.  Clinton is the prohibitive favorite for a 3-2 split.

IN-07:  6 delegates, Indianapolis proper.  Obama should run away with it for a 4-2 split.

IN-08:  6 delegates, Southwestern Indiana.  Strong Clinton turf for a 4-2 split.

IN-09:  6 delegates, Southeastern Indiana.  Strong Clinton territory - should be roughly a 60-40 popular vote ratio for a 4-2 split.

Because I believe Obama will win the popular vote narrowly, he should edge Clinton by one delegate among delegates that are not chosen by Congressional districts.  I believe this will result in a 36-36 tie.

(By the way, I am openly looking for people from Lake County to chime in and give me a sense on the ground there?  What will be the margin of victory for Obama there if he wins it?)

Poll

What will be the delegate result from Indiana?

35%115 votes
26%87 votes
37%121 votes

| 323 votes | Vote | Results

Tags: Barack Obama, Indiana Primary Prediction, Homemade map, Indiana (all tags) :: Previous Tag Versions

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