Expectations Reality: Tuesday's Results won't really matter

Let's be very clear here about what may or may not happen on Tuesday.  I know you may be fluttering about the latest SUSA poll showing Hillary up by 12% in Indiana, or the PPP with Obama up 10% in North Carolina... What's Zogby Smoking afterall.  Tweety is trying to set his expectations and Chuck Todd understands the simple fact but won't say it because it's bad for Business.  There is a simple, Clear Reality at play right now.

Tuesday DOES NOT* MATTER

No result Tuesday will be big enough to change the Race.  No Nuclear Option matters. Nothing matters at all actually because as you may have guessed, Barack Obama is certainly going to become the Nominee of the Democratic Party and there is nothing Hillary can do about it.  

*This is not to say to stop working; Hardly, there is much work left, and if Obama did win Tuesday, we'd get to the GE work much faster, so IN and NC, Come through for us!

I recommend you read this enlightening piece on how the race may actually come to a close sooner if Hillary does infact win in Indiana.  The way she's building her victories is winning her very few friends, and the Party is about to take a stand against her and her blight upon our Democratic Brand.

as Hillary moves up in various polls, keeps winning important states, etc, superdelegate sentiment actually drifts towards Obama. I noted last week that, even as his poll numbers among whites plummeted, Obama had finally caught up to Hillary in Hill supers. And now, the LA Times reports some superdelegate wavering within the Clinton camp:

Christopher Stampolis of Santa Clara, a superdelegate who endorsed Clinton after the Iowa caucuses, said that he remained in the New York senator's camp but that his commitment expired with the end of the primaries.

Superdelegates are all that matter today, tomorrow, June and July.... The Pledged Delegate Contest is effectively over.  Even if Hillary manages to win with the Nuclear Option and seat Florida and Michigan IN FULL, her lead amongst Pledged Delegates doesn't magically materialize.  And what won't magically go away is the conduct that Hillary Clinton, potential Nominee, potential Next Democratic President, has had on display for Supers to take note of these last many weeks.  More Eve

Clinton, obviously, is hoping the flow will go in the other direction after the end of the primaries. In fact, her whole strategy rests on the idea that if she closes the vote gap with Obama, the superdelegates will rush her way. But the way in which she's closing that gap -- inveighing against "this mindset where elite opinion is always on the side of doing things that really disadvantage the vast majority of Americans" -- may well make the opposite happen. I bet her new anti-economist shtick turns off some superdelegates (who, remember, are explicitly the "elite" within the Democratic party) even if it wins primary votes. Members of Congress have already treated her gas tax idea with total disdain and disgust. I can easily see a situation in which she does heroic work to narrow the pledged-delegate and, especially, the popular-vote gap with Obama by June, but the supers then refuse to play the role she has written for them.

I keep thinking of the line from Mark, "What does it profit a man to gain the whole world and lose his own soul?" What does it profit Hillary to win all these votes and narrow her gap with Obama if she loses the superdelegates' favor?

This are critical question every worried dKossack should consider.

1. At what cost to Democratic Principles and Party is Hillary winning Indiana and Pennsylvania?

2. What values of the Democratic Party are Hillary championing? Or is it truly only about her and her advantage?

3. Given the cover of the Pledged Delegate Lead for Obama, what would motivate Non-Clinton Loyalists to retain her services?

4. Given the cover of the Pledged Delegate Lead for Obama, what would prevent Non-Clinton Loyalists from Purging her from the party?

Reality begins to set in... See this Delegate Tracker new from the NY Times.

Also Obama is back to 50% in the Gallup tracker.

The trouble with Hillary's campaign of late is that she's run to the Right of Obama or at least tried too, in order to sway White Working Class voters and win these late states. This will not change, and this is simply not going to excite the Party Insiders.

The race is over.  The Media knows it but can't say it because it's Sweeps Month, don't cha know?

The Candidates know it... Obama's General Election Campaign is underway.

The Deadline is May 5th for those Obama Organizing Fellows among us.

Voter Registraton in 50 States on May 10th; Sign Up Today!

The Superdelegates know this.  Again today, Obama crushes on the Superdelegate pick up front with an astonishing +6.

It won't be long now.  There is less than a month to go until Montana weighs in.  Nothing that happens tomorrow in Indiana and North Carolina will change the reality ahead. Simply, that Barack Obama has already wrapped up this race and this is all simply about ratings...

Obama/Clinton Sunday TV showdown ... In Indianapolis:

ABC [Hillary] THIS WEEK 1.3 rating/4 share

NBC [Obama] MEET THE PRESS 8.5 rating/21 share

•  Tips/Recs for Clarity

  Obama can't say it, so we do.

  by kubla000 on Mon May 05, 2008 at 11:17:34 AM PDT

  •  RWCM is working for McBush, using HRC

    HRC is just a tool, although lately a willing tool, for the rich greedy corporate masters who own the news organizations.  They determined long ago that HRC would be easier to beat than Obama, so determined to have her installed as the Dem nominee.

    Very similar to 2004, where Dean would have been a break with "politics as usual", so he was destroyed so that Kerry could weakly carry the banner against bush (while keeping his safe Senate seat).

    RWCM is all about control, they would love a McBush vs. HRC campaign, with the Black/Penn PR firm being the ultimate winner since they owned both candidates!

    by MD patriot on Mon May 05, 2008 at 11:44:07 AM PDT

•  Well said!

  Let us move on and get the gawd damned Republicans out of office!

  by crazyshirley2100 on Mon May 05, 2008 at 11:22:40 AM PDT

•  Tuesday could matter

  if Obama won both states.  But he probably won't so it will seem like it didn't matter.  I'm afraid Indiana is going to pass on their opportunity to knock down Hillary's house of cards and make us keep going like we are until the end of all primaries.  She can't catch up but we'll have to keep seeing if Hillary, teamed up with the GOP and an unscrupulous press corps can destroy Obama before people get to know him.

  I think Tuesday could be an historical day if enough voters had the wisdom to make it so.  Because a vote for Hillary at this point is just a bid to weaken our nominee and that's it.  Most people have no idea that's the case, however, so we're probably going to see another round of people voting against their own best interests.

  by Sun dog on Mon May 05, 2008 at 11:23:12 AM PDT

  •  people have voted against their interests before

    Look at 2000, and even worse, 2004 when the slimy bush had already ruined the economy (covered up by bubbles greenslime) and started a disastrous war.

    by MD patriot on Mon May 05, 2008 at 11:45:45 AM PDT

•  Obama is the winner.

  Hillary is spinning as fast as she can to convince SDs otherwise, but it's not gonna happen.

  She is toast.

  by llamaRCA on Mon May 05, 2008 at 11:23:57 AM PDT

•  Doesn't matter but...

  I REALLY don't want to have to hear about Hillary as the "comeback kid" if she wins IN and somehow gets within 10% in NC.

  by My mom is my hero on Mon May 05, 2008 at 11:31:26 AM PDT

  •  oh my god me either!!

    That's one of the many things I hate about this!! I'm so over this race it's not even funny!

    by sillycilla on Mon May 05, 2008 at 11:48:36 AM PDT

•  I agree

  Even if Clinton were to win the all remaining states 10 points better than her margin in all the polls, she'd still need 2/3 of the remaining undeclared super delegates, and there's no reason or indication they would swing to her en masse.  If the final results look like the current polling, she would need 86% of the remaining super delegates.  Ain't gonna happen.

  Only a literal or political meteor strike can prevent Barack Obama from being the nominee.

  by CA Pol Junkie on Mon May 05, 2008 at 11:31:37 AM PDT

•  Agreed

  You're saying something I think we all know, but thanks for saying it again, and nicely done too. tipped and rec'd.

  I wish Clinton would just get the f-ing message already. My once-substantial respect for her is damn near gone.

  by pacotrey on Mon May 05, 2008 at 11:37:42 AM PDT

•  Ok so why is she still in the race?

  To pacify her block of supporters?
  To run down Obama to the ground and make him "unelectable"?

  She hopes Obama self destructs under Wright II?

  Is it political self immolation? Doing penance for?
  HRCs blind ambition for powr is amazing. Burn down the house to get power is her motto

  by wuod kwatch on Mon May 05, 2008 at 11:43:56 AM PDT

  •  HRC has no Plan B

    Her plan was to just waltz into the nomination, hopefully on "Super Tuesday" way back in February.  Once that did not happen, she is just bitterly hanging on, unable to come to grips with reality, and of course she doesn't care at all that she is ruining this country- disgusting display of entitlement.

    by MD patriot on Mon May 05, 2008 at 11:47:56 AM PDT