House and Senate Roundup, 5/3

Senate Races

TX-Sen: Kos wrote earlier about the shocking polling numbers out of Texas. Rasmussen indicates a slim four-point lead for John Cornyn, with Cornyn receiving 47% to 43% for Democratic challenger and Blue Majority candidate Rick Noriega. If the poll is accurate, it's fantastic news for Democrats.

Noriega still trails badly in the money race-he has just $300,000 on hand, compared to Cornyn's formidable $8 million war chest, so feel free to drop by the Blue Majority page and show Noriega some love.

NH-Sen: Yet another poll-the Granite State Poll-shows Jeanne Shaheen with a wide lead over incumbent John Sununu. Sununu has a cash advantage, but he remains the most endangered incumbent in the Senate. The House races in NH-01 and NH-02 were also polled; more on that below.

MN-Sen: Now for the bad poll news; the ever-reliable SurveyUSA shows Al Franken trailing Republican incumbent Norm Coleman by 10 points, 52% to 42%. This is lousy news, coming on the heels of reports that Franken owes $70K in back taxes. Franken has done quite well in fundraising so far; it may be a good time to start spending some of that money in order to start closing this gap.

NC-Sen: The day before the North Carolina primary, Kay Hagan holds a wide lead over Jim Neal in the U.S. Senate primary, 42% to 17%. Expect her to be the nominee against Elizabeth Dole.

VA-Sen: Mark Warner kicked off his Senate campaign today. He should cruise to victory over Republican Jim Gilmore, as he is dominating in both polling and fundraising. In fact, the best Republicans can say about this race is "well, maybe it's not macaca-proof".

Even Republicans acknowledge that Mark R. Warner is considered the heavy favorite. But, they say, he could still lose.

He could make a mistake the way then-Sen. George Allen did two years ago when he lost to a virtual unknown. He could be hurt by problems in the Democratic Party nationally in the coming months. He could be dragged down by his party's presidential nominee in a state that has voted for a Republican president for more than four decades.

"It can be done," said J. Kenneth Klinge, a prominent Northern Virginia Republican. "But it's going to take some luck."

House Races

NH-01, NH-02: Good news and bad news from the Granite State Poll. The good news is that Second District incumbent Paul Hodes (D) holds a wide lead over both his challengers, and is over 50% against both.

The bad news is that First District Rep. Carol Shea-Porter appears to be in serious trouble. Against former Rep. Jeb Bradley, whom she defeated in 2006, Shea-Porter actually trails by six points, 45% to 39%. Against the other Republican in the race, John Stephen, Shea-Porter leads 43% to 35%, but she is still well under 50%.

Shea-Porter surprised a lot of people in 2006, and overcame similarly bad polling numbers, but she is still one of the more endangered Democratic incumbents in the country.

NJ-03: Happy news from New Jersey's Third District; registered Democrats now outnumber registered Republicans in the district. The Third already votes like a lean-Dem district; Gore won NJ-03 by 11 points and Kerry narrowly lost it, 51-49. Best of all, we have an open-seat race featuring a terrific Democratic challenger in John Adler, who has over $1 million cash-on-hand and has already made the DCCC's Red to Blue list.

FL-13, FL-15: Two news items of note from last week's filing deadline in Florida. First, in the 13th District, Jan Schneider, who lost two previous races in the general election and one in the Democratic primary, is gearing up for a fourth run at the seat-as an independent.

She had considered running as a Democrat again, but apparently the national party sided with 2006 candidate Christine Jennings (no surprise, given that Jennings came within 400 votes of winning). So Schneider has decided to play Ralph Nader.

On the bright side, Dems have another serious candidate in the 15th District, home of the retiring Dave Weldon, in the person of former Air Force Lt. Col. Paul Rancatore.

More good news from Florida; there are now more Hispanic Democrats than Hispanic Republicans in the state. Our progress with this key demographic is wonderful to see, especially as there are nine House races in the state which are expected to be somewhat competitive (in the 8th, 9th, 15th, 16th, 18th, 21st, 22nd, 24th and 25th Districts). And oh, yeah, there are 27 electoral votes at stake, too.

•  Has Franken secured the nomination yet? n/t

  by Trix on Mon May 05, 2008 at 01:48:39 PM PDT

  •  FWIW...

    I think he's already repaid the $70k in back taxes.

    by Trix on Mon May 05, 2008 at 01:49:59 PM PDT

    •  I think he has a

      plan for that...not sure if he has paid it yet. But....

      Kos wrote earlier about the shocking polling numbers out of Texas. Rasmussen indicates a slim four-point lead for John Cornyn, with Cornyn receiving 47% to 43% for Democratic challenger and Blue Majority candidate Rick Noriega. If the poll is accurate, it's fantastic news for Democrats.
      Noriega still trails badly in the money race-he has just $300,000 on hand, compared to Cornyn's formidable $8 million war chest, so feel free to drop by the Blue Majority page and show Noriega some love.

      , beating Cornyn would be soooooooooooooooooooooooo satisfying ( and a cleansing process for the Senate! ). I am surprised the money situation isn't better. That needs to change.

      by eastvan on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:17:28 PM PDT

  •  Not yet.

    He most likely still will, but Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer (sp?) is still out there trying to get delegates.

    Since most people probably don't know about what happened to Franken:

    Franken said that he paid federal and state taxes on all of his income, but that the accountant had failed to properly distribute the tax payments.

    The net result, Franken said, was that between 2003 and 2006, he overpaid taxes in New York and Minnesota while failing to pay in 17 other states where he earned income.

    http://www.startribune.com/...

    by dagnabbit on Mon May 05, 2008 at 01:50:00 PM PDT

    •  Thanks

      I didn't think it was done deal yet.

      by Trix on Mon May 05, 2008 at 01:50:31 PM PDT

  •  Franken owes $5,000 not $70,000 Please check this

    This is a classic example of Republicans "framing" a news attack.  Franken wrote checks to 17 states totalling $70,000, but he's getting refunds for almost that amount from Minnesota and New York.

    The problem is that his accountant filed taxes where he lived, and not where he earned the income.

    It's a common problem for professional athletes, entertainers, etc.

    We're fighting like hell to keep the story straight in Minnesota, please help.

    I believe Al's going to be nominated in Rochester, MN on June6th, and the numbers will start turning upwards there, especially after Obama locks the presidential nomination.  

    by rohnjaymiller on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:11:45 PM PDT

    •  The amusing part:

      Franken is going to end up having paid about $5,000 more  to clear up the record than he already had, based on state taxes in Minnesota and New York. The money had to be paid in the states it was earned, not in the states where he lived. But, the Minnesota GOP is always bitching about how Minnesota (and New York, for that matter) is a "high tax" state. But when the taxes are redistributed to the appropriate states, Franken owes $5,000 more. Maybe we aren't really such a "high tax" state...

      We are men of action; lies do not become us.

      by ER Doc on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:36:19 PM PDT

  •  No, and he's taking on water fast.

    Al had only won over maybe half the delegates that will pick the nominee before this scandal hit. He needs 60% to win the endorsement. The other candidate, Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer, is now viewed as a serious contender. Party insiders are searching for another candidate and Mike Ciresi may get back in the race.

    by SlyDi on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:18:22 PM PDT

    •  Franken's problem is simple

      Because he was trying so hard back in 2003 to position himself as a tough, warmongering "liberal," he cannot now hang Iraq around the neck of Coleman.  In fact, slimy Norm may have better antiwar credentials than Al.

      So with trivial differences between them on the biggest issue in the election, the question returns to experience--and Norm has been a big-city mayor and has been in the Senate almost 6 years.  Those poll numbers do NOT represent a huge amount of support for Coleman so much as it reflects the disastrous decision Al made when he decided to support an illegal war.

      by techno on Mon May 05, 2008 at 05:37:36 PM PDT

  •  NH 2

    Hodes has more than two candidates. I think it is up to four. But, obviously, Horn and Clegg are the strongest Republicans at this point.

    by extratime40 on Mon May 05, 2008 at 06:20:58 PM PDT

•  Keep on goin', Dems!

  by RevJoe on Mon May 05, 2008 at 01:49:51 PM PDT

•  I want updates on Joe Garcia!

  His "One-Trick Pony" ad is nothing short of genius!

  by Pragmaticus on Mon May 05, 2008 at 01:50:18 PM PDT

•  I wouldn't read too much into the NH-01, NH-02

  polls. The sample size is about 250, the MoE is about 6.2%.

  by Elwood Dowd on Mon May 05, 2008 at 01:50:57 PM PDT

  •  Same pollster, Sept. 2006

    Had Bradley with a 19 point lead (PDF) over Shea Porter.

    I promise not to take the result too lightly, if you promise not to take it too seriously...

    by Elwood Dowd on Mon May 05, 2008 at 01:54:27 PM PDT

•  MN-03

  Open seat, and our nominee Ashwin Madia liveblogged here today as the newest member of the Obamajority slate.  Help him out!

  by Adam B on Mon May 05, 2008 at 01:51:40 PM PDT

•  Franken over paid in MN&NY

  underpaid else where.  I think it's still too early to say this is hurting him.  If the next set of polls show him down ten then it is probably an issue.  Norm is a slimy bastard.  He's somehow convincing people that he isn't tied to bush at the hip despite his voting record.

  My diary on the Franken tax problem.

  by Dr Colossus on Mon May 05, 2008 at 01:52:21 PM PDT

  •  I don't know that it's hurting him

    not yet, anyway.

    The 10-point deficit to Coleman is the same as it was in SUSA's last poll.

    by brownsox on Mon May 05, 2008 at 01:58:59 PM PDT

    •  Norms number are going to drop once the DSCC

      and whom ever his opponent is starts running abs about Norm's record.  I think it's early and people are not really thinking about Norm as an enabler of Bush.  I'm not worried, though a little puzzled at how he's polling so high considering how many seats the MN GOP has lost in the last four years.

      by Dr Colossus on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:04:21 PM PDT

      •  Norm's record du jour

        True to form, Norm has spent considerable effort tailoring his voting record to currrent political circumstances. From 2002-2006 he was a dyed in the wool loyal Bushie. He was even the designated attack dog sicced on Kofi Annan when Annan wasn't playing along with Bush's war.

        From 2006 to present, Norm's record is remarkably different. Until 2006 he voted with the GOP about 90% of the time. Since then, it has been about 65% of the time. The 65% hews more closely to Norm's current brand as a moderate conservative. Even though I find him revoltingly smarmy and disingenuous, he has been remarkably successful at whoring himself to the Minnesota electorate at large. If Franken and the DFL can't anchor Coleman to his prior voting record, and Bush, Franken is going to have a very hard time winning this race.

        by Joe Bob on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:42:43 PM PDT

•  Problem with widespread use of 'macaca'

  I thought the whole point of the controversy is that it was an ethnic slur, so how come everyone (here and even in the traditional media) keeps repeating that word?

  "Macaca moment" should have the same unpleasant impact as "dago moment" or "wetback moment." These are offensive words that shouldn't be tossed around so casually. By continuously using the word, it makes it seems as though the outrage was manufactured--it can't be that bad a word if everyone's using it.

  by Johnny Gentle Famous Crooner on Mon May 05, 2008 at 01:54:03 PM PDT

  •  Warner will NOT lose to

    Jim "I'll cut the Gas Tax and Bust the Budget the Year AFTER I leave Office" Gilmore.

    by Granny Doc on Mon May 05, 2008 at 01:56:40 PM PDT

•  Bill Young (old) must go!!

  http://www.house.gov/...

  by surfdog on Mon May 05, 2008 at 01:54:42 PM PDT

•  Noriega is looking good.

  While it's still just one poll, a 43% base for a Democrat in Texas is remarkable.

  by Slastankya on Mon May 05, 2008 at 01:57:01 PM PDT

  •  I was stunned and thrilled

    to read about this poll today. I just set up a monthly donation to Noriega. I am so tired of being represented in the Senate by Kay Bailey "cheerleader just like Bush" Hutchison and John "civil liberties don't matter if you're dead" Cornyn. Noriega should appeal to a whole lot of Texans - Democrats, of course, but also Hispanics, military people, and those not making enough to have an $8 million campaign chest like John Cornyn does. I can't wait to see Noriega's TV spots. There's so much to ridicule about Cornyn.

    A plea - if you are lucky enough to be represented by a safe Democrat in another state, please consider sending a little cash Rick Noriega's way! Here's his homepage. Take a look his bio. While Republicans seem to think that a patriot is someone who wears a cheap-ass pin made in China, this guy is the real deal. I'd love to see chickenhawk Cornyn serve a tour in Afghanistan, like Rick did.

    by Leap Year on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:09:37 PM PDT

  •  I met Noriega at Yearly Kos last year....

    ...he came up to me in the bar and we talked for some length of time, after he found out I was a native Texan.  He came across as very strong and very intelligent.  That won't play well with the Texan mouth-breathers, but fortunately not all the residents of my home state are like that.  Noriega will do well.

    Andy
    Alton IL

    by AAbshier on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:16:39 PM PDT

•  If Texas is close with the Senate and Pres. races

  Obama needs to do a day or two with Rick Noriega in South Texas or San Antonio and show support for the Dream Act which is one of Noriega's big issues, plus he is a veteran which is great! If Obama can get Hispanics to sway his way in Texas, he can win it. I live in Texas and we're ready for change!

  by ElizabethAM on Mon May 05, 2008 at 01:59:47 PM PDT

  •  a million times yes!

    an Obama/Noriega campaign appearance - that is a brilliant idea. South Texas would go nuts for them. Any Obama campaign staffers with pull reading this?  ;-)

    by Leap Year on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:11:20 PM PDT

    •  I hope so.

      Anyone who is close to the campaign please, please tell them! Seeing Obama work hard for Texas will mean a lot to us and mean a lot to the younger generation of Hispanics and in turn, their parents.

      by ElizabethAM on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:14:37 PM PDT

•  Don't miss Larry LoRocco liveblogging now

  in the recommended diary section.

  by JayAckroyd on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:01:22 PM PDT

•  NJ is going to be hard to call

  There is so much crap going on in the state budget wise right now, I really have no idea how the overall mood is going to go by November.

  We really need to merge towns, and that is going to lead to the elimination of municipal jobs. All the other alternatives are completely unpallatable to the electorate. Then again there isn't much support for merging towns either.

  Corzine is telling it like it is. So far people haven't like the being read the cold hard math of how screwed up our finances are.

  Really, this is going to be an odd election year. We'll go blue for the Presidential campaign, but anything below that I'm mildly worried.

  by Windowdog on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:02:40 PM PDT

•  Jennings (FL-13)

  the national party sided with 2006 candidate Christine Jennings (no surprise, given that Jennings came within 400 votes of winning).

  My recollection is that there was some technical screwup with the vote, but the most likely facts-on-the-ground seemed to be that more voters actually cast votes for Jennings than for her Repub opponent, Vern Buchanan. Pelosi's decision to seat Buchanan instead of exercise the House's prerogative to judge the qualifications of its members was one of the earliest of many disappointments of her speakership.

  by HeyMikey on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:05:01 PM PDT

  •  It could have been a number of things

    The undervote was dramatic-about 18,000 votes concentrated in one (Democratic) area of the district.

    Probably just bad ballot design.

    It's pretty safe to say that Jennings would have won without that ridiculous undervote, though. Hopefully she will this time.

    by brownsox on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:11:42 PM PDT

  •  IIRC, there was nothing that disqualified.....

    ...Vern Buchanan from taking the seat.  There was no way to definitively prove that the vote was stolen, or would have gone Jennings' way.  I suspect Pelosi was picking her battles, even at that point.

    The irony is, the same machines that mysteriously dropped 12K votes in the Congressional race delivered a "yes" vote on the mandate to change from paperless machines to a paper-trail voting system.  Heh.

    Andy
    Alton IL

    by AAbshier on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:11:51 PM PDT

    •  Pelosi could've refused to seat anyone . . .

      . . . unless and until a clear, fair election was held. What a concept.

      by HeyMikey on Mon May 05, 2008 at 06:43:24 PM PDT

•  House and Senate Roundup.......?

  by MCMetal on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:06:40 PM PDT

  •  Yeah

    I'm all for it ............Round them all up and deport them all for real progressives that give a shit about more than themselves , their godforsaken loser families , and their cronies ...........

    by MCMetal on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:07:58 PM PDT

•  Please rec. the food bomb diary!!!

  Many here are working to feed the volunteers and staff working offices for tomorrow's elections.

  If we rec. it up perhaps we can get more people working for a better world fed!

  We can't live on hope alone..though it makes a nice dessert. :)

  by Morgan Sandlin on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:07:10 PM PDT

  •  ..and the link is...

    Kossacks for Obama Food Bomb

    by Morgan Sandlin on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:08:36 PM PDT

•  FL-13: The story on Jan Schneider

  I used to live in this CD, and followed the congressional races in 2004 and 2006, and have met both Jan Schneider and Christine Jennings.  All of that doesn't make me an expert, but maybe I can add some perspective.

  Jan waged a lonely campaign in 2002 against Katherine Harris and actually did very well, considering that the campaign was done on a shoestring budget.  In 2004 she easily defeated Christine Jennings, who had mounted a primary challenge, but finished 9 points or so behind Harris in the general election.

  So 2006 comes around.  FL-13 is going to be an open seat because of Harris pursuing the Senate seat held by Bill Nelson.  Jennings has geared up to challenge Schneider again--then at this point the DCCC jumps in (then led by Rahm Emmanuel) and throws their support to Jennings, BEFORE the Democratic primary is held!  Needless to say, Jan is completely incensed, as are her longtime volunteers.  Jennings, with much more resources, won the primary easily in 2006.  

  One can argue that Rahm called ir right that year, because Jennings came so close to beating Vern Buchanan.  I will say that she came across better on the stump that Jan did, and I was also somewhat impressed with her when I talked to Jennings for some length of time.  But a lot of us were incensed at the DCCC's meddling in the race, and it appears that Jan hasn't gotten over it, at least at this point.  I don't know how the FL-13 race is polling at this point, but it seems to me that Jan should withdraw and let Jennings have a clean, Diebold-free, run at the seat.

  Andy
  Alton IL (formerly of Sarasota, FL)

  by AAbshier on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:09:27 PM PDT

  •  She needs to get over it.

    She lost the primary. Plenty of outsider candidates have won primaries over people with establishment support (Carol Shea-Porter, for instance), so it's not like it was insurmountable odds all other things being equal.

    by MissLaura on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:15:39 PM PDT

    •  The story I heard....

      ...is that Jan Schneider and Chris Jennings got along like fire and gasoline--and this was well before Jennings achieved any prominence as a politician.  

      I agree, I hope cooler heads prevail on this one.

      Andy
      Alton IL

      by AAbshier on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:18:03 PM PDT

•  Yeah , sure...............

  "It can be done," said J. Kenneth Klinge, a prominent Northern Virginia Republican. "But it's going to take some luck."

  Is "luck" the new GOP code-word for Diebold ?

  by MCMetal on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:10:10 PM PDT

  •  I think Mark Warner has a Diebold-proof lead...

    ...he's 17 points up over Gilmore according to Pollster.com.

    Short of catching Warner in bed with Miley Cyrus, motor oil, and a goat, I don't there's much to worry about.

    Andy
    Alton IL

    by AAbshier on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:14:36 PM PDT

•  Anyone know anything about NM-01?

  I don't have much more than a hunch to base this on, but I think we've got a great shot here of electing a Dem.  The district voted 51-48 for Kerry in 04 and Heather Wilson, the incumbent Republican only won by .4 of one percent (50.2-49.8) in 06.

  Is the DNC showing NM any love this cycle?

  Anybody know where I could find out more?  Maybe find some polling or something?

  by Yorick on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:11:44 PM PDT

•  NH-01

  Ive always thought this was one of our five most endangered incumbents. The DCCC needs to reserve some extra $ for ads in this district against Bradley.  One should include the 2002 appearance with Bradley and Bush standing together the night before the election.

  by UpstateDem on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:14:24 PM PDT

  •  Bradley may not win

    John Stephen, who had a state-wide presence at HHS is probably the stronger candidate. Bradley seems tired on the stump too. Not a lot to say.

    by extratime40 on Mon May 05, 2008 at 06:20:15 PM PDT

•  Frankin DOES NOT ower 70,000 in back taxes

  This is lousy news, coming on the heels of reports that Franken owes $70K in back taxes. Franken has done quite well in fundraising so far; it may be a good time to start spending some of that money in order to start closing this gap.

  I'm surprised at Kos for perpetuating this myth.  Al Franking has paid that $70K in taxes, he just paid it to the wrong state.  He was given bad tax advice and he paid it all to Minnesota.  Now he finds out that he really owes that money to several states where he was when he earned the money.  

  The way you presented it and the way his opponents are presenting it, sounds like Frankin is stiffing on his taxes.  That IS NOT the case here folks.

  by Katiebegood on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:23:47 PM PDT

  •  This was cleared up on Olbermann

    last week. Somebody check out the clip !

    http://www.youtube.com/...

    by murphy on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:49:27 PM PDT

•  No, Franken does NOT owe $70,000 in back taxes.

  After the earlier mess with New York and California, he had someone review his tax filings. They found that, in an extension of his accountant's earlier mistakes, the Frankens had paid taxes on all their income to the state where they lived. (NY, then MN)

  Apparently, and this part of the tax law is confusing to me, he was supposed to pay income tax on the earnings from each state, in that state.

  (I always thought a C-corporation paid their taxes in the state where they were headquartered; then again, I'm not an accountant and never had to learn this stuff!)

  Anyway, he paid taxes at the higher MN and NY rates, when he should have (could have) paid some of those taxes in other states.

  In one case, I thought I saw that the taxes due were $27 and some change.

  Turns out the total over several years that should have been paid elsewhere, plus penalties, was $70k. That's also roughly what he overpaid in taxes to MN and NY.

  His federal taxes are, apparently, correct.

  It was Franken and his campaign who contacted the media, and all of the DFL delagates in MN before the story hit the news, with the story.

  Of course, the MN GOP is doing everything in their slimy power to make it sound like Franken never paid those taxes, which is simply NOT true.

  They paid taxes on everything, just to the wrong place, thanks to a cascade caused by a few initial mistakes.

   
  And yes, shit like that can happen. A friend of mine ended up with serious back tax bills because Olsen Thielen, a major, "reputable" accounting firm in Minnesota didn't file his corporate forms properly. They didn't send in the corporate filing, which meant the IRS thought he was one type of business, when he was another. Olsen Thiilen charged him a buttload to look into it, then denied all responsibility on their part. So yeah, accountants can screw up. Usually, it's small stuff, but sometimes, one screwup leads to a BIG mess.  

  by Lashe on Mon May 05, 2008 at 06:50:58 PM PDT

•  FL 24- Kosmas is the real deal

  Suzanne Kosmas is on the road to beating Jack Abramoff's Scottish golf buddy, Tom Feeney.  After only two quarters, Kosmas leads Feeney in cash on hand.  

  A long time state legislator from Volusia County, Kosmas knows how to get it done in this lean Republican part of Florida.  Moreover, she is a solid progressive voice on health care, education and choice.

  by consdem on Mon May 05, 2008 at 08:01:13 PM PDT

•  Senate and House races in MN

  For one, Franken is not yet the nominee, and locals have true progressive Jack Nelson Pallmeyer showing a lot of momentum with the delegates.  Pallmeyer would be the real spiritual and political heir to Paul Wellstone.  Second, MN Dems have nominated a Iraq war vet, Steve Sarvi, to take on veteran John Kline....looks to be a slugfest.  Hopefully, Dems can wrest this seat from the "Bush way or the Highway" John Kline.

  by anim8sit on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:57:48 AM PDT