Most Annoying Possible Outcome (predictions!!!)

Riffing on an Andrew Sullivan complaint about especially annoying outcomes, I thought I'd throw in a few media-monitoring metrics to set expectations.

One metric is Most Annoying Possible Outcome (MAPO), in which the result is plausibly spinnable by both sides. There are many things annoying in politics, but the MAPO is a particular election result that proves nobody's point. In this case, it means a continued slow death by superdelegate trickle for Hillary Clinton, but it means the campaign goes on and the possibility that another event or metric later on could change things back toward Hillary Clinton. It means the status quo.

There are other definitions of Elrodica to consider here:

A Marginally Interesting night means more spin and more diaries posted at MyDD for said candidate gloating, but not a lot of Superdelegate movement. Howard Wolfson and/or David Axelrod sweat profusely on national television in excitement/despair, but the race doesn't change too much.

A Big night means several days of media talking heads about new momentum and lots of articles by Important Journalists about what's Wrong with one of the candidates. Superdelegates pause if Hillary has a Big night and motion toward big chunks if Obama has one.

A Game Changer means superdelegates start reversing to Clinton in big numbers and Obama collapses; or they publicly call for Clinton to quit the race and rush to Obama.

So what is the MAPO tomorrow? What is a Marginally Interesting night? What is a Big night? And what is a Game Changer?

I think of it in ranges:

MAPO:
North Carolina: Obama wins by 8-11 points

AND/OR

Indiana: Clinton wins by 5-8 points

Marginally Interesting for Clinton:
NC: Obama wins by 4-7 points
IN: Clinton wins by 9-11 points

Marginally Interesting for Obama:
NC: Obama wins by 12-16
IN: Clinton wins by 1-4

Big night for Clinton
NC: Obama wins by 1-3
IN: Clinton wins by 12-14

Big night for Obama
NC: Obama wins by 17-20
IN: Obama wins by 1-3

Game changer for Clinton
NC: Clinton wins by any result
IN: Clinton wins by 15 or more

Game changer for Obama
NC: Obama wins by 21 or more
IN: Obama wins by 4 or more

There could, of course, be partial results. Obama could have a "big" night in NC but only a "marginally interesting" night in IN or some other possibility. But that gets too complicated.

What do you think will happen tomorrow?

•  Prognostication

  Hillary takes Indiana by 5-6%, Obama takes NC by 10-12%.

  by Swordopolis on Mon May 05, 2008 at 09:57:15 PM PDT

•  My prediction?

  I predict Obama will have a big night. Screw the polls. I think HRC has doomed herself with her negative campaigning and Bush III politics.

  Senator Clinton has JUST left the building.

  Now, would someone please force her to sign her political obituary?

  by gabbardd on Mon May 05, 2008 at 09:58:43 PM PDT

  •  Rec'd for "testicular Forttude" nm

    by MooseHB on Mon May 05, 2008 at 11:25:23 PM PDT

  •  Insurgents Win Big Event !!!

    

    2nd oldest prediction behind "Messiah Returns Tomorrow."

    by Gooserock on Tue May 06, 2008 at 01:07:17 AM PDT

•  I hope it's a "Game Changer"

  in either direction. It's time to stick a fork in this thing and focus on McCain.

  by davybaby on Mon May 05, 2008 at 10:00:02 PM PDT

•  disagree with your numbers

  all of your sets suggest Obama needs to do better in NC than Hillary does in IN. An example:

  Marginally Interesting for Clinton:
  NC: Obama wins by 4-7 points
  IN: Clinton wins by 9-11 points

  Marginally Interesting for Obama:
  NC: Obama wins by 12-16
  IN: Clinton wins by 1-4

  I'd go, in this marginal category, with equivalent wins. Obama by 5, Clinton by 10 is equivalent in "gosh-ness" to Obama by 10, Clinton by 5.

  There's also no reason for Obama to have to win NC by 21 and IN by 4. Really, a 7 pt NC win plus any IN win for Obama and it's pretty much done.

  by Shahryar on Mon May 05, 2008 at 10:02:28 PM PDT

  •  I disagree

    Any win in IN would be big, but it wouldn't be fatal. Not for Hillary Clinton at least.

    by Elrod on Mon May 05, 2008 at 10:08:03 PM PDT

    •  I suppose

      It depends on what your definition of fatal is. If he won Indiana by a few thousand votes, less than 25k, I don't think she would drop out, but I do think we'd see an avalance of SD's to him and this race would start looking a lot like Huckabee-McCain post Feb. 5th.

      by safik on Mon May 05, 2008 at 10:18:53 PM PDT

•  I'd guess

  Clinton by 7 in IN, Obama by 8 in NC.  Basically MAPO as you define it, on the edge of marginally interesting for Hillary.

  By the way, if you really want to see how people respond to your question, add a poll.

  by UU VIEW on Mon May 05, 2008 at 10:07:57 PM PDT

  •  Good idea

    I'll add a poll.

    by Elrod on Mon May 05, 2008 at 10:08:25 PM PDT

  •  Experts Agree!! Most Annoying Possible Outcome

    as of 4am ET / 1 PT .

    by Gooserock on Tue May 06, 2008 at 01:05:26 AM PDT

•  MAPO.

  The polls seem to be underestimating early voters and AA percentage in NC. I'm expecting at least Obama +10.

  IN, I think, will break as OH and PA did, especially with late deciders. The crosstabs show some differences, but they aren't drastic, and I've lived too long in the Midwest to not understand this dynamic. I can see a lot of people not looking past the surface claim of the gas tax gimmick, making it a shamefully dishonest but politically effective stance. Clinton +8.

  The war of attrition continues.

  by differance on Mon May 05, 2008 at 10:52:11 PM PDT

  •  Various Commentatorers Have Been Saying

    AA are starting to drift back to Clinton.

    by Gooserock on Tue May 06, 2008 at 01:08:07 AM PDT

    •  Various commentators

      are drowning in a sea of their own spittle and hype.

      by differance on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:16:47 AM PDT

•  My prediction is not based on the polls

  but on the same analysis and chatter I'm reading..

  Seems everyone is trying desperately to find the silver lining, just like before PA, just like before OH/TX.  

  It is so similar could go back and cut/paste those same threads to save the time for having to retype it all.

  This tells me with out a doubt, the most annoying result possible is assured.  

  Obama wins NC but loses the white vote massively.

  Clinotn win IN and wins the white/working class/rural vote massively.

  There is no possible way for Clinton to win, but there is no possible way to get her the hell out of the race.  

  The Democratic leadership will show their patented lack of leadership.  Will be weak kneed and impotent in the face of Clinton spin and this thing goes to convention.  

  If the SDs hadn't ended it already, what evidence is there they will end it after tomorrow night or after June 3rd.  

  by audiored on Mon May 05, 2008 at 11:00:49 PM PDT

  •  Yep, MAPO Rules!! nt

    by Gooserock on Tue May 06, 2008 at 01:09:08 AM PDT

•  Prognostication

  I am predicting Obama +14 in NC and Hillary +6 in IN, but I think this would qualify as marginally interesting for Obama.  Therefore, I voted that way even though my numbers don't officially qualify according to your standards.

  I think if the numbers come out this way, the biggest narrative is going to be that "Obama survived his horrible month and Hillary just lost one of her key chances that remained to catch up."  I was surprised by how strong the rhetoric was describing Hillary's supposedly huge win in PA (ridiculous since she outperformed final polls by maybe 2 or 3 points, nothing earth-shattering), and I think Obama is going to get the advantage this time.

  It all depends on him winning NC by several points more than she wins IN, and I think 7 or 8 is around the magic number.

  by sasatlanta on Mon May 05, 2008 at 11:26:29 PM PDT

•  My predictions

  Obama wins NC and IN (any margin, whether it's 10% or 10 votes in IN): Supers endorse en masse this week and force Hillary out. This is really the only possible scenario that I could consider a game changer.

  Obama wins NC and Hillary wins IN (by any margin): Not much changes. Maybe some supers will endorse and she'll concede, but I think we'll go on to the next primary.

  Hillary wins NC and IN: Definitely the least likely outcome. Even then, I don't think it will change much. She'll claim momentum, much like she did after PA. She'll say it's a game changer, and she's more electable, and Obama can't win big states, and Obama can't seal the deal and continue spinning it, but the math will still be against her.

  Obama wins IN and Hillary wins NC: Hell freezes over. Satan, in search of a warmer place, comes to earth to rule the world. All of the world's governments are disbanded due to Satan being in charge, thus, making the Democratic primary irrelevant and unnecessary. Hillary and McCain, since they're most like the prince of darkness, fight to the death to determine who will be Satan's vice ruler of the world. Hillary has the advantage in the duel due to her uncanny ability to evade sniper fire.

  by yg17 on Mon May 05, 2008 at 11:27:59 PM PDT

•  BO Wins IN and NC

  and millions of icebergs reattach to Arctic and Antarctic ice shelves.

  by Gooserock on Tue May 06, 2008 at 01:10:09 AM PDT