House, Senate, Governor Roundup 5/6
by brownsox
Tue May 06, 2008 at 02:30:17 PM PDT
Senate/Governor Races
NE-Sen: With just a week left until Scott Kleeb's primary, help him raise $20,000 by Friday! mcjoan wrote an excellent piece yesterday on the efforts of Kleeb's primary opponent, ex-Republican businessman Tony Raimondo, to buy this primary with his vast personal fortune. Let's show Raimondo what people power is capable of, and show Kleeb some love!
NC-Sen: Today is primary day in North Carolina, and aside from the presidential race, there are three major statewide races of interest; the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, and the Democratic and Republican primaries for Governor.
In the Senate race, State Senator Kay Hagan looks poised to deliver a convincing victory in her primary. Public Policy Polling shows her leading her closest challenger, Jim Neal, by 30 points, while SUSA shows her ahead by twenty-five.
Assuming she wins, she'll go into the general election as a clear underdog against incumbent Elizabeth Dole. Still, Hagan should be considered one of the strongest second-tier Senate challengers this cycle. Real Clear Politics has an interesting article about this race, comparing Hagan to Jim Webb:
But Hagan has raised an impressive $1.52 million, much of which she has spent on making the primary with Neal a blowout. And trailing by just seven points in public polls is on par with Webb and others from the 2006 cycle; a Democratic poll taken in late June, 2006, showed Webb trailing Allen by a 46%-39% margin, and a Mason-Dixon poll in late July had Allen leading by a whopping 16 points. And Hagan's campaign brags that only Missouri's Claire McCaskill and Ohio's Sherrod Brown have raised more money through the First Quarter of 2006.
As for the North Carolina gubernatorial primaries, Lieutenant Governor has a wide lead over State Treasurer Richard Moore in the Democratic primary, while Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory (considered the strongest Republican general-election candidate) faces a tough challenge from State Sen. Fred Smith. I'm hoping that Smith manages to pull off the upset today.
IN-Gov: There's a primary tonight in Indiana, of course, and one of the hottest races here will be the Democratic primary for Governor of Indiana, where architect Jim Schellinger faces former Congresswoman Jill Long Thompson. The winner will get to take on unpopular GOP incumbent Mitch Daniels in what should be one of the closest gubernatorial races of the fall.
Polling has indicated a dead heat in the primary race, and that both candidates are competitive with Daniels. We'll see how things shake out tonight.
House Races
NY-13: Vito Fossella may face jail time for drunk driving, should he be found guilty. It's difficult to say how much of an effect this scandal will have on his chances for reelection. He had already been targeted by the DCCC, his district leans very slightly Democratic, and he has two challengers in the race; attorney Steve Harrison, who gave him his toughest challenge yet in 2006, and New York City Councilman Domenic Recchia, who currently has more cash-on-hand than the incumbent Fossella.
However, one major advantage for Fossella is geographic; his challengers both hail from Brooklyn, while Fossella-and the majority of NY-13 voters-live in Staten Island.
LA-06: The fallout from the Democratic pickup in LA-06 is looking pretty severe for the Republicans. The Hill notes serious infighting in the GOP caucus, following their second humiliating special-election loss in a row, with NRCC chairman Tom Cole lashing out at his Republican brethren:
Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.) chastised his colleagues Tuesday for not contributing to the GOP candidate in an increasingly crucial Mississippi special election, saying those who have not helped "ought to be ashamed of themselves," Republican sources said.
The harsh admonition from the head of the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) was the latest rallying cry from GOP campaigners, who have repeatedly cited a lack of enthusiasm and giving from members. House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) told his colleagues earlier this year that they needed to get off their "dead asses" and raise money for the NRCC.
Boehner and Cole continued that theme Tuesday at a House GOP meeting, asking members to focus on the Mississippi race just days after the party suffered a second loss of the cycle in former Rep. Richard Baker’s (R) conservative Louisiana district.
There had been rumors that Cole would be relieved of his position if the GOP lost the special election in IL-14. Obviously, this has not occurred, but I doubt the GOP caucus is especially happy with Cole's stewardship of the NRCC, and he certainly doesn't seem happy with their contributions.
Cole's biggest mistake may have been to rely on demonizing high-profile national Democrats in this race; the traditional media is already pushing the narrative that that strategy has failed. From Roll Call:
Vulnerable House Democrats, touting their independence in their re-election efforts, might be breathing more easily this week after Republicans failed in their bid to make Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) a political albatross.
In the first test-case for the strategy, the special election Louisiana’s 6th district, Democrat Don Cazayoux pulled out a win, making him the first Democrat to hold the seat in 32 years.
Donna Brazile agrees:
While Cazayoux was busy campaigning about helping those still struggling in Louisiana and bringing positive change to Washington, Republicans were trying to win by hook or by crook. National conservative groups, a veritable who’s who of Washington special interests, spent nearly a million dollars trying to brand Cazayoux as an Obama/ Clinton/Pelosi tax-and-spend liberal Democrat. The National Republican Congressional Committee and Freedom’s Watch even brazenly skirted federal campaign finance law by coordinating their attacks.
At the end of the day, they failed, making this race the second time this year that Republicans unsuccessfully tried to hold onto a conservative-leaning House seat by injecting national politics into the race.
Ultimately, the Republicans can scream all they want about Clinton, Obama and Pelosi. It won't disguise the fact that their candidates are bad and their ideas are bad.
CA-50: Greenberg Quinlan Rosner has polled this race, and finds surprisingly strong numbers for Democrat Nick Leibham in his quest to unseat Republican Brian Bilbray, who won a relatively close special election in June 2006 against Dem Francine Busby. Bilbray leads Leibham 52% to 34%, but there are several reasons for optimism. Swing State Project's James L. notes:
That's about where you'd expect this race to be at this point. But looking deeper into the numbers, Democrats have a 43%-39% generic congressional ballot preference advantage here, and a 47%-40% generic presidential advantage. And after a positive bio is read of both Leibham and Bilbray, the gap closes to 49% Bilbray, 46% Leibham.
Bilbray's re-elects aren't stellar either, with only 42% of voters saying that they will vote to re-elect him, while 39% say that they'll cast their ballots for someone else.
MS-01: The DCCC keeps putting money into this race, with an additional expenditure of $100,000 now increasing the total spent to just shy of $1.4 million. That's insane for an R+10 district.
The Republicans are pulling out the big guns, sending Dick Cheney himself to campaign with Greg Davis. Frankly, I know this is solidly Republican territory, but even so, I'm not sure Cheney's going to help much. For more, check out Cotton Mouth Blog.
WV-02: Kossacks clammyc and thereisnospoon have conducted an exclusive interview with Democratic candidate Anne Barth, as part of an ongoing series of radio interviews with progressive candidates. Check it out!
Update: Check out Swing State Project's terrific list of Competitive House Race Rankings. Seriously, don't miss it.
Race tracker wiki: NE-Sen NC-Sen NC-Gov IN-Gov NY-13 LA-06 CA-50 MS-01
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