Indiana is TOO CLOSE TO CALL (UPDATE)

I've been going through the numbers on Indiana for the past hour.  Now Hillary may indeed end up winning the state and as of right now I project that she will win by 2 percentage points but the media screwed this up big time by calling it too early for Clinton.  Obama may still win Indiana.

Begin here by clicking CNN election results

At the time I checked in, Clinton led by about 42,000 votes but those numbers should get tighter.

I then went through many of the counties where the vote has not been counted yet and this is good news for Obama.

What has come in thus far from Gary, Indiana?  Nothing.  And this city should be heavily Obama.

Obama is carrying Hamilton County by about 20 points with only 35% of the vote reported.  If this trend continues, add another 8000 votes to Obama.

Then there is Marion County, the most populous county in Indiana.  Obama leads by 46,000 votes (a 2-1 margin) with about 25,000 more votes to be counted.  If you break that up 2-1, add another 8000+ votes for Obama.

Then there is Monroe county where Obama leads 2-1 but 3/4ths of the vote is not in.  If this trend continues, add another 4500 votes for Obama.

When I do the math I have Hillary winning by 2 but certainly my margin of error is greater than 2 points.

The media is just so lazy when it comes to reporting.  This is just another example of it.

UPDATE - About 82% in, many of the remaining counties where Clinton was stronger have come in.  Still nothing from Lake county and 11% remaining from Marion which translates to about 15-20 thousand votes.  This will get closer.  Obama though will probably fall short though.

•  still time

  by davefromqueens on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:39:21 PM PDT

  •  lake county

    still nothing yet and still close.

    by waitingforvizzini on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:43:05 PM PDT

  •  it seems that

    Obama's congratulations to Clinton on Indiana, well, might be all she has to cling to at the end of the night...

    by wade norris on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:44:28 PM PDT

    •  "appears to be"

      is the operative phrase

      by waitingforvizzini on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:45:55 PM PDT

  •  Last week I figured she'd win by 8...

    ...this morning I figured 5 was reasonable.  As of right now we're at 4, could go to 2, or- Obama might actually win.

    Wow.

    by pakaal on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:59:47 PM PDT

•  OMG!!!!!

  by Blue Waters Run Deep on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:39:43 PM PDT

  •  chuck...

    ...todd said he'd need 54% of the remaining results to win! We can do it!!!

    by MichaelPH on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:49:39 PM PDT

•  He's going to win by a few thousand votes nt

  by The Bagof Health and Politics on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:40:50 PM PDT

  •  this is a case where

    I'd be delighted with 50% + 1 vote.

    by alizard on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:42:13 PM PDT

    •  8 votes dammit-Gotta beat Guam....nt

      by Theghostofkarlafayetucker on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:43:15 PM PDT

  •  From your fingers to God's ears.

    It would end this thing once and for all, and aside from Obama being our nominee, that is the second best result.

    by Vera Lofaro on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:45:24 PM PDT

•  It would be ok with me if he wins IN!!!! too.

  by leema on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:41:02 PM PDT

•  Keeping my finges crossed n/t

  by ScientistMom in NY on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:41:19 PM PDT

•  The media is just so lazy

  They wanted to give Hillary a win so people could go to sleep.

  by Bill White on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:41:31 PM PDT

  •  or see the results - not bother to vote Obama n/t

    by alizard on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:42:49 PM PDT

•  Chuck Todd has been on this

  He is only one on TV worth listening to other than KO.

  by Mother of Zeus on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:42:34 PM PDT

  •  Agree, he just laid out a compelling scenario

    for an Obama win.  It may come up just short because classes are out for the semester at Purdue, and thousands of undergrads have gone home.

    by Mogolori on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:49:13 PM PDT

•  Lazy or overly anxious?

  I was just thinking they're so desperate for the scoop and be ahead of everyone else that they call things far too early, solely to be ahead of their news peers.

  Either way, it's not particularly helpful.

  by ssmt on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:42:40 PM PDT

•  Lake County still not in and that will

  go for Obama

  by leema on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:42:53 PM PDT

  •  Not that I doubt you

    'cause I know nothing about the state, so I'm not being confrontational when I ask: How do you know that? (Because I REALLY hope you are right!)

    Is that county the part close to Chicago?

    by Brooke In Seattle on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:13:51 PM PDT

    •  Yep

      Lake County is the northwesternmost county in Indiana and it's part of the Chicago Metro area. Gary is in Lake County.

      by Munchkn on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:31:03 PM PDT

•  DAVE!

  awe-sum!
  evansville, too!  u of e down there!

  by stagemom on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:43:17 PM PDT

  •  not till 11 pm says tim russert?

    i am going to go out for a walk with the pooch.

    by stagemom on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:04:02 PM PDT

•  A close race is good enough for me!

  This is a great night!

  by RadicalGardener on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:44:10 PM PDT

  •  Indeed.

    Obama did exactly what he needed to do.

    by Same As It Ever Was on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:51:23 PM PDT

•  Could he possibly pull the upset here?

  I think I would just be all too giddy if this happens...please let it be :)

  by netgui68 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:44:49 PM PDT

  •  It would be like Christmas all over again.

    by Vera Lofaro on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:46:52 PM PDT

•  Wow.

  Poblano:  smart poll analyzer, or the smartest poll analyzer?  Discuss.

  by kismet on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:45:50 PM PDT

•  Agreed

  Nice, even handed, factual analysis here.  

  This one is too close to call at the moment...not sure Obama (who just credited Clinton w/ the win) didn't speak too early.

  I think your prediction of 2 points may be right on. Clinton should still win it, but not by much more than that.

  Good work.

  by BraveheartDC on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:46:30 PM PDT

•  The Obama camp says: lose by 15K votes

  That was just said on TV.  Their internals are probably pretty good.

  by beachmom on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:46:45 PM PDT

  •  Still close enough that

    even they could be wrong.  That's what 1%?

    by Same As It Ever Was on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:49:20 PM PDT

  •  Sounds like a victory to me

    n/t

    by ssmt on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:50:37 PM PDT

•  Results are coming in REAL slow for IN

  Just clicked over to 76% in...still C +4

  by catnap1972 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:46:57 PM PDT

  •  Some precincts in diff. time zone.

    by pointsoflight on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:48:41 PM PDT

•  here's my rundown

  (already out of date no doubt)

  Statewide @ 69%:
  +47K Clinton

  remaining net gains if current ratios hold:
  Marion@77%: +12K Obama
  Lake@00%: +24K Obama (assuming 25 point margin)
  Hamilton@35%: +8K Obama
  Porter@24%: +4K Clinton
  Monroe@24% +5K Obama

  ???
  Tippacanoe (pop. 142K)
  La Porte (pop. 109K)
  Hendricks (pop. 98K)
  Wayne (pop. 71K, likely strong Clinton)

  by jethropalerobber on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:47:03 PM PDT

  •  That CNN map is cool= I like Hamilton &

    Tippacanoe odds for big gains......

    by Theghostofkarlafayetucker on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:52:43 PM PDT

  •  updated @ 74% statewide

    Statewide @ 74%:
    +38K Clinton

    Obama gains remaining (if current ratios hold):
    Lake@00% +24K (assuming 25 point margin)
    Hamilton@35% +8K
    Marion@91% +5K
    Monroe@24% +5K
    Tippacanoe@33% +3K

    Clinton gains remaining (if current ratios hold):
    Porter@50% +2K
    Hendricks@12% +3K

    Unknown@00%:
    La Porte (pop. 109K)
    Wayne (pop. 71K, likely strong Clinton)

    by jethropalerobber on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:58:37 PM PDT

    •  Hamilton now 84% O up 8K

      by Theghostofkarlafayetucker on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:07:03 PM PDT

    •  & Tippacanoe looks 60/40 Obama

      by Theghostofkarlafayetucker on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:11:54 PM PDT

  •  updated @ 83% statewide

    Statewide @ 83%:
    +42K Clinton

    Obama gains remaining (if current ratios hold):
    Lake@00% +34K (if turnout and ratio match Marion)
    Monroe@24% +5K
    Marion@94% +4K
    Tippacanoe@49% +3K
    Hamilton@90% +1K
    TOTAL +47K

    Clinton gains remaining (if current ratios hold):
    Porter@71% +1.5K
    Hendricks@12% +3K (i think the current @74% numbers are wrong - way too low)
    Clark@89% +1K
    TOTAL +4.5K

    (La Porte@52% is currently a wash)

    by jethropalerobber on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:32:42 PM PDT

•  We need 15000 votes!!

  Thats the projected margin for her according to chuck todd

  by American by Choice on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:47:07 PM PDT

  •  Come on Gary IN!

    by MadAsHellMaddie on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:51:23 PM PDT

•  If he pulls it off

  the pressure on her to withdraw will be tremendous.  The media will call the race for Obama.

  by Same As It Ever Was on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:50:37 PM PDT

  •  either way

    it will be either 33 to 15 or 32-16

    by davefromqueens on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:58:02 PM PDT

    •  Yes. But symbolism is everything

      in media world.  If she wins, she will be seen as limping along.  If she loses, she's finished.

      by Same As It Ever Was on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:02:48 PM PDT

•  I did some calculations

  Extrapolated total margins from partially reported counties by assuming that precincts reported proportionally, and the percentages were about the same. For counties that hadn't reported yet, I used Poblano's projection numbers. That gave Clinton the victory by 35,000 votes.

  I would note however that Obama might do a lot better than Poblano projected in NW Indiana, especially as the exit polls have him up by 10 points there. If he takes Lake County by a huge margin, he could win it.

  by Michiganliberal on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:51:54 PM PDT

•  Gas Tax Holiday

  blew up in her face.

  by Same As It Ever Was on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:54:15 PM PDT

•  Hillary frit?

  The delay in Hillary's "winning" speech is significant.  Her internals must show it so close that they cannot call it and with a significant county still to make any declarations (as per CNN), she must have real concerns that she has not won.

  I suspect the crowd waiting for her speech are in for a long night.

  by Lib Dem FoP on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:58:08 PM PDT

  •  you know it would be funny for her to give a

    victory speech and then have to retract it later!!!

    by heartsandflowers on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:42:09 PM PDT

•  115,000

  voted for Kerry in 2004 in Lake County.  If 100,000 vote and Obama takes 65% of the vote or more, he can take the state, acc. to my quick calculation.

  by Hiraga on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:59:32 PM PDT

  •  I offset this

    by a couple of other areas.  give me a margin of error of 3 percentage points.

    Best case scenario, Obama wins by 1.

    by davefromqueens on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:02:11 PM PDT

    •  I'll settle for Obama

      by .0001

      by Same As It Ever Was on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:03:30 PM PDT

•  Keith just said STILL TOO CLOSE TO CALL

  by Blue Waters Run Deep on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:00:35 PM PDT

•  Why Munroe for Obama?

  It sticks out in the middle of otherwise Clinton-favored areas....

  And what about neighboring Jackson?

  by pakaal on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:02:07 PM PDT

•  Obama wins IN.

  If it's within 3% then I believe that Limbaugh/NRL is responsible for the margin.  If it's within %2 we should declare victory.

  by play jurist on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:02:20 PM PDT

  •  Arguable.

    But the argument does add some incentive to try and fix a few things so that it doesn't happen again - on either side.

    by pakaal on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:04:03 PM PDT

    •  Fine.

      Make them argue it.

      by play jurist on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:05:02 PM PDT

      •  My point exactly! :-)

        by pakaal on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:09:55 PM PDT

•  I was....

  very sad earlier Today when I thought that Hillary would win my state of IN by double digits.

  Even if she ends up winning, I'm happy and proud of my State for giving my Obama a chance!!

  Thank you Indiana for keeping it close!! And thank you to all of you who worked so hard in this State to make this happened!!

  by LatinoBama on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:03:48 PM PDT

•  Time to get ready to welcome our wayward

  Democrats back to the fold.  Write on the blackboard 50 times, we must play nice, we must play nice, we must play nice........................

  by Neon Mama on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:09:59 PM PDT

  •  They may vote for Democrats

    but they need to learn who to be democratically minded citizens.

    by heartsandflowers on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:40:36 PM PDT

•  They disenfranchised so many voters today

  I spoke with a Black female voter who is a university professor and they would not accept her ID. She said they let the 3 people ahead of her in line who are white vote without asking them for ID. She went to the DMV got a new ID and went BACK to that polling place and told them she was filing a complaint. But how many others have been turned away? I heard about the nuns. Obama is so close to winning the state but if he doesn't [he was projected to win] it will surely be because of this.

  by heartsandflowers on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:38:42 PM PDT

•  projection @84% statewide...

  Statewide @ 84%:
  +42K Clinton

  Obama gains remaining (if current ratios hold):
  Lake@00% +34K (if turnout and ratio match Marion)
  Monroe@44% +3K
  Tippacanoe@49% +3K
  Marion@98% +1.5K
  Hamilton@90% +1K
  TOTAL +42.5K

  Clinton gains remaining (if current ratios hold):
  Porter@71% +1.5K
  Hendricks@33% +1.5K
  TOTAL +3K

  (La Porte@52% is currently a wash)

  by jethropalerobber on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:43:28 PM PDT

  •  Statewide@85%:

    Statewide@85%:
    +41K Clinton

    Obama gains remaining (if current ratios hold):
    Lake@00% +34K (if turnout and ratio match Marion)
    Monroe@44% +3K
    Marion@98% +1.5K
    Hamilton@90% +1K
    TOTAL +39.5K

    Clinton gains remaining (if current ratios hold):
    Porter@71% +1.5K
    Hendricks@33% +1.5K
    LaPorte@67% +.5K
    TOTAL +3.5K

    by jethropalerobber on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:53:55 PM PDT

  •  statewide@85% (updated)

    Statewide@85%:
    +40K Clinton

    Obama gains remaining (if current ratios hold):
    Lake@00% +35K (if turnout and ratio match Marion)
    Monroe@44% +3K
    Marion@98% +1.5K
    TOTAL +39.5K

    Clinton gains remaining (if current ratios hold):
    Porter@71% +1.5K
    Hendricks@33% +1.5K
    LaPorte@67% +.5K
    TOTAL +3.5K

    by jethropalerobber on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:59:37 PM PDT

  •  statewide@85% (update 2)

    Statewide@85%:
    +40K Clinton

    Obama gains remaining (if current ratios hold):
    Lake@00% +35K (if turnout and ratio match Marion)
    Monroe@54% +2.5K
    Marion@98% +1.5K
    TOTAL +39K

    Clinton gains remaining (if current ratios hold):
    Porter@71% +1.5K
    Hendricks@33% +1.5K
    TOTAL +3K

    by jethropalerobber on Tue May 06, 2008 at 08:07:02 PM PDT

  •  statewide@86%

    Statewide@85%:
    +39.5K Clinton

    Obama gains remaining (if current ratios hold):
    Lake@00% +35K (if turnout and ratio match Marion)
    Monroe@54% +2.5K
    Marion@98% +1.5K
    TOTAL +39K

    Clinton gains remaining (if current ratios hold):
    Porter@71% +1.5K
    Hendricks@67% +.5K
    TOTAL +2K

    by jethropalerobber on Tue May 06, 2008 at 08:18:40 PM PDT