I watched Republicans give one Indiana precint to Hillary

I served as a poll watcher today for Obama in Indiana.  The officials at the precinct were regulars at that precinct.  The clerks I watched and talked with throughout the day, one Republican and one Democrat, told me the precinct was usually fairly evenly split, with the Republicans usually holding a slight advantage in voters over the Democrats.

Today, however, they couldn't give away a Republican ballot.  

Remember that in Indiana, voters have to request either a Democratic or Republican ballot.  In the precinct I observed today, there ere 328 voters.  Using the poll watchers' years of experience, between 150 and 175 of those voters would normally be Republicans.  Today, there were only 52 Republican ballots requested.

Which means that somewhere between 100 and 125 Republican voters requested Democratic ballots.

Some would say that this represents a victory for the Democrats, because they pulled Republican voters.  And it's possible that some Republicans voted for a Democratic candidate today that they intend to vote for in the fall.

However. . . the clerks and I developed a feel for which Republican voters were the spoilers.  They were the ones who said, "I want a Democratic ballot today, but I'll never do this again."  They were the ones with the Bible verses on their shirts.  They were the ones with the nervous tics in their faces as they asked for a Democratic ballot.  They were the ones who couldn't even pronounce Democratic as they asked for a ballot.

Obama won this precinct by about 150 to 125 over Clinton.  But without those 100 or so Republican voters, this would have been an absolute landslide for Obama.

How many other precincts showed this same pattern?  Hard to tell.  But any analysis of the implications of this win for Hillary in the general election must include a serious recognition of the effects of "Operation Chaos."

Beloved Eun

•  She is a Republican to me now.

  by David Kroning on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:51:15 PM PDT

•  Rush Limbaugh

  just gave Indiana to Hillary.

  by gnat on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:51:53 PM PDT

  •  maybe

    maybe not

    let's see what the region does

    by boonagain on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:53:13 PM PDT

    •  WTF?

      You have the FIRSTHAND report of a POLLWATCHER.

      by MAORCA on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:54:19 PM PDT

      •  No

        but Lake County is very populous and overwhelmingly for Obama

        by boonagain on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:58:08 PM PDT

        •  It's pretty finely balanced actually

          Northern Lake County is heavily African American, parts of eastern Lake County are middle class in an Obama kind of way but southern Lake County is very Hillaryish.  Poblano's projections had it almost evenly split between the two.

          by decisivemoment on Tue May 06, 2008 at 08:32:59 PM PDT

      •  Inspector here

        We had record turnout in my Indianapolis precinct, we had people we knew were Republicans voting Dem and Obama kicked butt. It was like 260 O to 99 C. The precinct is usually closer to 50/50 Dem/Rep. And we usually have under 100 turnout total, often under 50. If you want first hand, there it is.

        I talked with my Dem judge and wondered if there are Repubs gleefully voting against Hillary because of a kneejerk reaction against the name Clinton. Maybe in my precinct that's what happened. We had two votes on a handicapped-accessible machine--both old white guys, veterans, appeared working class though in this neighborhood, they could also be retired academics. Both went for Obama according to the report my machine printed out when the polls closed. That flies in the face of their demographic.

        I had an interesting encounter with the woman who used to be inspector when the Repubs were in charge in my county. She asked for a Dem ballot. We were told at training that we shouldn't challenge for party affiliation. We were told how to do it but we weren't encouraged to do it. But since I knew her history, I couldn't help a jab: "So, you're changing affiliations? You've finally seen the light?" Her reply was venomous. "This is a protest vote! I'm voting to make sure the person who shouldn't get it doesn't." She seemed so hot under the collar, she could barely speak clearly. "What does that mean?" I wondered aloud. "That's for you to find out," she spat back. "Actually, I don't really care," I said. "It's your vote." That's when I wondered if Clinton hatred might not be driving some of the Repub vote. You never know.

        -5.88, -6.82

        by Debby on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:01:28 PM PDT

  •  My County Went Almost 3-1 Hillary

    With turnout approaching 50%

    Yet, she'll be lucky to clear 20% in the general here...

    by IndianaDemocrat on Tue May 06, 2008 at 08:04:04 PM PDT

•  Thanks for the firsthand report nt

  by MAORCA on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:52:51 PM PDT

•  Open primaries are a really stupid idea.

  I don't mind independents voting in Democratic primaries, but any state where Republicans can screw up Dem. primaries (or vice versa) by voting for the weakling needs to fix this before 2012.

  by Cat Servant on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:52:52 PM PDT

  •  Idiotic and supported by centrists & moderates

    like Broder who argue that it makes it easier to elect moderates and centrists instead of so called extremists on both sides.

    by doinaheckuvanutjob on Tue May 06, 2008 at 08:56:08 PM PDT

•  Operation Chaos gives IN to Clinton....

  ..and she loves it!

  17 percent of primary goers who said they would choose Sen. John McCain over Hillary Clinton in a hypothetical general election match-up, 41 percent of that group came from Clinton's own camp.

  by DRStarks on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:52:58 PM PDT

•  That bastard Rush

  is going to have to explain just exactly who the hell he thinks he is.

  There should be prosecution for this b.s.

  by murphy on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:53:10 PM PDT

  •  devil's advocate

    but didn't kos urge Dems to vote for Mitt in Mi.

    by boonagain on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:54:43 PM PDT

    •  Legal in Michigan, generally not in Indiana.

      by Jimdotz on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:57:24 PM PDT

      •  the fact different states have such different

        ways, not only of holding primaries (as regards the question of non-registered voters, indies, etc), but also of what constitutes election tampering, etc, speaks volumes about how screwed up our election system is. These things need to be federally uniform.

        by gnat on Tue May 06, 2008 at 08:01:26 PM PDT

    •  Yes he did

      And I hope that it doesn't come back to haunt us if the Michigan delegation is seated at the convention.

      by slatsg on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:58:21 PM PDT

    •  But it's illegal in Indiana

      I don't know about MI.

      But in Indiana, if you request a ballot of a particular party in the primary, you must, by law, have either voted for a majority of that party's candidates in the previous election, or intend to vote for that party's nominee in the general election.

      A whole lot of "value based" Republican voters committed fraud today.

      by Beloved Eun on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:59:26 PM PDT

      •  Illegal, But UNENFORCABLE

        Unless you plan on administering Sodium Pentathol to ever cross-over voter, to divine his/her "Future" voting intentions...

        by IndianaDemocrat on Tue May 06, 2008 at 08:00:54 PM PDT

    •  Well, Obama's name

      wasn't even on the ballot in MI.  Still, I take your point.  Sauce for the goose...  Politics is stinky business, unfortunately...  My hope is that Obama will be able to start processes in motion to clean it up.

      I feel absolutely safe in saying that without Fox News and hate radio, the Republicans would NOT have been in power these last 8 years, nor would they have a chance this year.   This is nothing less than corporate power having its say in Washington, perhaps in perpetuity...  This is the Republican agenda.  

      We need media reform.  And I haven't the slightest clue how to go about it in a country with free speech... but reinstating the equal time law (that Reagan did away with) would be a start.

      We are still a LONG way from home...

      by ceebee7 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 08:03:14 PM PDT

  •  he ought to go to jail

    for tampering with and attempting to swing an election. Even though it probably is legal? It's utter B.S. either way.

    by gnat on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:55:07 PM PDT

    •  For Doing What Dems Have Done FOR YEARS?

      Did you FORGET that KOS encouraged us all to do EXACTLY this in Michigan?

      That Tactical Voting has been a tool of Indiana Democrats FOR DECADES??

      GET OVER IT, or work to change the rules.

      It's our OWN chickens coming home to roost, after all...

      by IndianaDemocrat on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:59:31 PM PDT

      •  And I was strongly against it

        I had advised almost everyone on here to stay out of the GOP primary in Michigan.  

        by UpstateDem on Tue May 06, 2008 at 08:01:17 PM PDT

  •  You think he cares?

    The more people talk about "The Limbaugh Effect" and "Operation Chaos" the more that bloated, drug-addled pig gets to crow about how important he is.

    Indiana would have been nail-biter close either way. We're better off ignoring the Big Fat Idiot, or better yet, asking why McCain is so weak Rush needs to cheat for him in order to win.

    by AustinCynic on Tue May 06, 2008 at 08:01:51 PM PDT

    •  That is role of superdelegates....

      they are at least Democrats, so they get a shot at picking the Democratic Party nominee.  Hopefully the Rush Limbaugh effect is noted and discredited.

      by murrayewv on Tue May 06, 2008 at 08:15:54 PM PDT

      •  Exactly

        The more Rushbo gets associated with the boat anchor that is Hillary, the more ridiculous he looks.  If his presence is used to discredit her, it looks bad for him too.

        by decisivemoment on Tue May 06, 2008 at 08:35:05 PM PDT

    •  Awesome response!

      asking why McCain is so weak Rush needs to cheat for him in order to win.

      -5.88, -6.82

      by Debby on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:04:02 PM PDT

    •  So who is Richard Mellon Scaife....

      gonna support now that his BFF is going down the tubes.  Scaife was too crafty by far between his endorsement of Hillary and appearing in photos with her as a form of support.

      There is simply no way I ever saw him carrying that support beyond the primaries.  He and the hard right wing are apoplectic at what Obama represents....the potential to mobilize change and end the past decade of greed.  

      He's going hard McCain in the general.  Meanwhile, it appears GOP members of Congress are not enthusiatically emptying their pockets to support the party.  According to TPM and Josh, they are being browbeaten now by party leaders telling them they should be ashamed for their lack of contributions.

      Oooh it is going to be a fun fall.

      by dweb8231 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:42:08 PM PDT

      •  Bet we'll see an "Illinois Project"

        The sequel to "The Arkansas Project." But Barack Obama is no Bill Clinton when it comes to having skeletons in the closet, so I think they'll have a harder time coming up with something.

        And let me state for the record, I believe that Obama is a politician, not a savior--though I'm coming to believe more and more he's one of the more gifted  people we've seen in politics in a very long time. But he's never turned water into fermented grape juice, and he walks on the bottom of the pool when he swims, not on top of the water. As far as I know. ;-)

        by AustinCynic on Wed May 07, 2008 at 01:13:22 PM PDT

  •  For Acting DEMOCRAT Whjile Republican?

    Did you FORGET that KOS encouraged us all to do EXACTLY this in Michigan?

    That Tactical Voting has been a tool of Indiana Democrats FOR DECADES??

    GET OVER IT, or work to change the rules.

    It's our OWN chickens coming home to roost, after all...

    by IndianaDemocrat on Tue May 06, 2008 at 08:02:13 PM PDT

    •  Changing the rules

      to some sensible level of uniformity may be the great gift of this insane process over the past 16 months !

      by murphy on Tue May 06, 2008 at 08:07:51 PM PDT

•  I'll have a Democrat Party ballot, please.

  by palantir on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:53:17 PM PDT

  •  Do ya like my 'Mega Dittos' pin?

    by palantir on Tue May 06, 2008 at 08:15:50 PM PDT

•  I said this in a diary a few weeks back

  and I was right.  Rush Limbaugh gave Hillary Clinton Indiana.  

  by UpstateDem on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:58:04 PM PDT

  •  upstatedem

    What happened to the secret ballot? How were you able  to find out that the Republican crossover votes were cast for Hillary? Maybe their vote was responsible for the close vote.

    by DocbytheBay on Tue May 06, 2008 at 08:29:48 PM PDT

•  By exit polling

  I can tell that Rush gave Hillary a 10,000 vote cushion in Indiana.  If her margin is less than that, she can thank him.  

  by UpstateDem on Tue May 06, 2008 at 08:04:52 PM PDT

  •  Really a Phyrric victory on Rush's part....

    Maybe he did rustle up enough support to just give Hillary a win, but the margin is so narrow when Hillary was pegged to win fairly strong that she has effectively lost and now appears to be going into seclusion at least temporarily to assess where to head now. Reports are she has cancelled all appointments for Wed.

    Rush....essentially, your quest to get the woman you love to hate into contention against McCain has failed.  Better stock up now in extra oxy contin.

    by dweb8231 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:45:13 PM PDT

•  I don't know what's more disturbing

  Rush or the folks that listen to and follow his 'dreams'.

  We'll see just how powerful Rush is if there are riots in Denver this August. I'm sure there will be republican operatives there trying to start something, just like they did in Florida in 2000.

  Honestly, it should come as no surprise that the repubs will say anything and do anything to win elections. Their lust for power is unsurpassed.

  by SpiffPeters on Tue May 06, 2008 at 08:05:24 PM PDT

•  Oh

  I can only summon pity for the kind of people you describe.  Following Rush Limbaugh's life instruction would be a hell of a way to lumber through this mortal coil.

  by The Termite on Tue May 06, 2008 at 08:07:56 PM PDT

  •  I can't imagine the moral corruption it takes

    and the personal disconnect.  It may be legal but it's got to be soul damaging to use your voting rights that way.

    by Wendy Slammo on Tue May 06, 2008 at 08:12:50 PM PDT

    •  I agree completely

      I've argued against an Operation Chaos guy in just that way, but he won't even acknowledge the point.   Moral and ethical blind spot.

      by indybend on Tue May 06, 2008 at 08:17:33 PM PDT

•  um

  Remind me which candidate ran the ads "Be a Democrat for a day"?

  by LaEscapee on Tue May 06, 2008 at 08:22:56 PM PDT

•  We need to rethink primary rules...

  The fact that Rush might be able to deliver Indiana to Hillary (and that Kos urged Dems to vote for Mitt) turns voting into a game. I used the think folks should be  able to switch parties up to the last minute and that independents should be able to vote in primaries, but I no longer think so.

  Primaries are to select a party's nominee. If you're not invested in the party, why should you get input? I respect the position of Independents, that they want to vote for candidates, not parties, but all the people who declare themselves and work for Dem (or GOP) party ideals should be able to select their party's nominee.

  Rush Limbaugh's antics in verious states has probably cost the  campaign millions in fighting C (and maybe gave C false hope).

  I think a real discussion needs to be held at state level, about switch cutoffs--3 months before election?

  Thoughts?

  by MmeVoltaire on Tue May 06, 2008 at 08:52:13 PM PDT