Checkmate for Obama: Clinton Supporter on Rules Commitee Rejects Nuclear Option

In the wake of Tuesday's primaries, Hillary's slim chance of winning the nomination hinge on her being able to seat the Florida and Michigan delegations pursuant to the "beauty contest" primaries that were held in January. It's always been a specious argument, but in the world of Clintonian politics, anything's possible so long as it benefits them, to hell with the rest of the Democratic Party.

For her to seat Florida and Michigan however would require, to start, a vote of the DNC rules committee at its meeting on May 31 reversing its earlier decision to strip Florida and Michigan of their delegates. Right now, according to DemConWatch, Clinton supporters make up a plurality, but not a majority, of the committee (twelve have endorsed her, eight Obama, ten are neutral).

Therefore, for her to succeed would require at a minimum unanimous support amongst her supporters. Well, now it looks like that tiny window of opportunity has been slammed shut. Today's LA Times reports that Clinton supporter and DNC rules committee member, Gary Shay, plans to object to the Clinton proposal to count Florida and Michigan:

I don't let my political feelings interfere with what I believe to be right and just under the rules.

In my mind, that's pretty much checkmate. It's over, whether or not Hillary knocks over her own King.

•  It's Too Late- Obama Is Too Far Ahead - It's Over

  by bincbom on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:18:39 AM PDT

  •  I Just Saw Senator Bill Nelson...

    ... lying his ASS OFF regarding the legality and "awesome turnout" in the Florida primary.

    Call his office and give 'em an earful.

    202/224-5774

    The theme of my message was to quit lying to us like we're a bunch of ignorant fucks who'll always fall for the spin.

    by brentmack on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:28:50 AM PDT

    •  Good luck

      I've been flat out lied to by his office regarding FISA. Nelson is a liar and exactly the kind of democrat that needs primarying.

      by discocarp on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:39:45 AM PDT

    •  Give them a polite earful, please

      The staffers who take the calls don't need yelling.  

      by lineatus on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:41:46 AM PDT

  •  Even if everything tweaks Clinton's way...

    which it won't she's still behind by 35 delegates. She will make up some of that, but then if in doing so, she somehow pisses off supers or edwards or edwards' delegates, it goes to the convention and the loses then.

    by Uniter on Thu May 08, 2008 at 04:31:27 PM PDT

•  Great catch! Recommended!

  You might retitle it to "Nuclear Option goes Bust-Clinton Support Bolts"

  by Steven R on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:19:14 AM PDT

  •  Thanks

    I changed it.

    by pragprogress on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:23:00 AM PDT

  •  "Clinton's nuclear option fizzles"

    She no longer has critical mass.

    Oh, my bad.  That's latte-sipping, Prius-driving, Birkenstock-wearing talk.  (Never mind that I NEVER drink coffee, I drive a used pickup truck that burns oil, and I own no Birkenstocks.)

    by Alden on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:38:22 AM PDT

    •  Maybe if we keep

      talking this way, someone will buy us a Prius.

      And for shoes, one word-

      Mions

      by Remembering Jello on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:43:08 AM PDT

    •  No way!

      I think he/she should title it:

      Goat eats can, pukes lid

      Just 'cuz.

      by MichaelPH on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:47:01 AM PDT

•  This poll

  needs adjusted

  by kestrel9000 on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:20:35 AM PDT

  •  Boy, the deluded are showing up to vote! n/t

    by llamaRCA on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:33:09 AM PDT

•  just a note

  from the article:

  Several party officials said Wednesday that they did not support the Clinton strategy of reinstating the states' entire delegations.

  "I don't let my political feelings interfere with what I believe to be right and just under the rules," said Clinton supporter Garry Shay, a Democratic National Committee member from California who sits on the rules committee and plans to object to the Clinton proposal to count Florida and Michigan.

  Stress is mine.

  I'm assuming the Clinton proposal is to count all the delegates as is.  However, how the article is worded, this would not necessarily count out the proposal made by the Democratic Party to split it 69/59 with each delegate getting 1/2 vote.

  Having said that, even if you did reinstate the entire delegations...it still won't matter at this point.

  by FleetAdmiralJ on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:24:14 AM PDT

  •  Yeah 69/59

    would be a drop in the bucket compared to what she needs to pull even with Obama.

    by pragprogress on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:31:31 AM PDT

    •  You forgot the Superdelegates from the two states

      who are going to owe HRC big time with only one opportunity to pay that off, if any of their delegates get seated at all.  A lot of them are die hard Clinton supporters which is why this mess has gone on and on - they wanted her version of success or riots in Denver, and even showed up to riot a bit in DC last week. Seems to me a fair proposal splits them as well. It has to or all the supers also go into the pot for her.

      by Christy1947 on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:42:42 AM PDT

  •  Heh.

    Stress is mine.

    I'm right there with you.

    by mengelhart on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:35:04 AM PDT

  •  People are counting

    the pledged delegates as if they are static. They are not. Hillary's only path to the nomination is to cajole and convince pledged delegates to turn at the convention. Meanwhile, she wants to control the narrative as long as she can to convince the media and those wavering pledged delegates that she is the only electable candidate in November.  At the same time she will be able to "freeze" the remaining pledged delegates. Now she has her shills, Ed Koch and others, echoeing that spin.

    I truly do not believe that she will drop out until the vote at the convention, once and for all, gives the nomination to Obama.

    As long as she can see a path to the nomination, she will not stop. As I have said before, Obama's greatest and most brilliant weapon to defeat her is to continue to outspend her.

    by Batbird on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:50:20 AM PDT

    •  very unlikely

      Yes, Hillary has repeatedly stated that pledged delegates are actually free to change their minds at the convention. That said, how many of these delegates are actually wavering and subject to persuasion? I would wager: very, very few. The pledged delegates are the most die-hard supporters of whichever candidate they were selected to represent.

      The delegates I wonder about are all the ones Clinton locked up before the primaries even started. I wonder how many of them are having buyer's remorse?

      by Joe Bob on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:27:17 AM PDT

    •  The truly hilarious thing about this strategy

      is that it leads to the obvious question: Why have the votes in the first place? Just send X number of delegates to the convention from wherever and let the candidates and their proxies win over who they will. We could save hundreds of millions of dollars and hold our convention in January, and we'd only ever nominate the machine candidate.

      Unfortunately, there were all those primaries and caucuses and they elected highly committed delegates and for the Clinton campaign to pretend that they're in play is completely delusional. It's even more delusional if her pitch really is "zOMG TEH BLAXX0RZ!"

      by oldjohnbrown on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:49:52 AM PDT

•  I'll relax when the supers line up in sufficient

  numbers to render the seating of MI and FL immaterial.

  Then perhaps she'll see that her position is not tenable, that she can't gamble on a convention coup, and she'll quit, taking her racist horseshit with her...

  by oxon on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:28:05 AM PDT

  •  They should do it now. We need to get

    the show on the road.  Clinton is beyond unreasonable about her ability to stage a comeback.

    by nupstateny on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:50:33 AM PDT

•  Obama could negioate for historic Black 3/5 votes

  and would still come out ahead while painting Hillary with her own Racist brush.

  by drmah on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:55:35 AM PDT

  •  How did you guess

    That's her new "I won the popular vote" strategy.

    by Slartibartfast on Thu May 08, 2008 at 04:19:05 PM PDT

•  Um...

  When did everyone here start believing politicians, let alone party apparatchiks?

  If I was a Clinton goon in the rules committee bent on staging a coup, I'd say something like this too rather than announce it and give someone the chance to shut me down.

  The Clintons are powerful, with many favors to hand out in the years to come, and if the ten neutral members have anything they want, I'd be scared for Obama.

  by NoMoreNicksLeft on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:13:37 AM PDT

  •  that's a touch paranoid, don't you think?

    The Clintons are the ones with no more sticks left, and are down to grasping at the very few remaining straws.

    by elmo on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:36:16 AM PDT

  •  If this is a head fake, it's made of FAIL

    You make a head fake to disguise a move that you're going to make immediately afterward in order to disable or divert any attempt to stop it until it's too late. The convention isn't until July, and Mr. Shay can't possibly have any idea what the lay of the land will be in July.

    The only reason I can see for him to say this on the public record as the narrative settles on Obama as the nominee is to preempt Clinton's FL/MI strategy. Either she gets 2024.5 delegates by the time the convention votes or it's over.

    by oldjohnbrown on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:55:51 AM PDT

    •  If I understood correctly...

      The convention is in July, but when they'd change the rules is coming up soon.

      by NoMoreNicksLeft on Thu May 08, 2008 at 11:53:22 AM PDT

      •  Convention's in August

        and the meeting to consider changing the rule is on May 31.

        by pragprogress on Thu May 08, 2008 at 01:30:29 PM PDT

        •  OK, that makes a little more sense n/t

          by oldjohnbrown on Thu May 08, 2008 at 01:43:24 PM PDT

•  Michigan Uncommitted

  People are forgetting that Obama doesn't get Michigan delegates.  Officially they are uncommitted.  I live in MI, attended the District convention and am here to tell you, Clinton supporters were elected as uncommitted delegates.  That is fact.  How many is the question.  It's not out of the realm of possibility that she get 35 uncommitteds.  The delegation from Michigan must not be seated.

  by CandyKat on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:01:29 PM PDT