Hillaries Five Mistakes (Make that 6)
Thu May 08, 2008 at 12:55:29 PM PDT
Five Mistakes Hillary Made by Time.com
(Make that Six)
- SHE MISJUDGED THE MOOD
That was probably her biggest blunder. In a cycle that has been all about change, Clinton chose an incumbent's strategy, running on experience, preparedness, inevitability — and the power of the strongest brand name in Democratic politics.
There were times when I thought I could have run a better campaign. She also misjudged the anti war sentiment of the Democratic voters in the primary. If she were smart she would have said "I made a mistake on the Iraq vote but I'm against the war now and I will bring home the troops as soon as possible". She said too little too late. And the voters wanted her to be more honest. More straight talk than spin and games. She misjudged.
- SHE DIDN'T MASTER THE RULES
Clinton picked people for her team primarily for their loyalty to her, instead of their mastery of the game. That became abundantly clear in a strategy session last year, according to two people who were there. As aides looked over the campaign calendar, chief strategist Mark Penn confidently predicted that an early win in California would put her over the top because she would pick up all the state's 370 delegates. It sounded smart, but as every high school civics student now knows, Penn was wrong: Democrats, unlike the Republicans, apportion their delegates according to vote totals, rather than allowing any state to award them winner-take-all.
Did they have a numbers cruncher on the campaign that was in the loop? Were they neglecting small states under the same type of misconceptions?
- SHE UNDERESTIMATED THE CAUCUS STATES
While Clinton based her strategy on the big contests, she seemed to virtually overlook states like Minnesota, Nebraska and Kansas, which choose their delegates through caucuses. She had a reason: the Clintons decided, says an adviser, that "caucus states were not really their thing."
By the time Clinton's lieutenants realized the grave nature of their error, they lacked the resources to do anything about it — in part because:
Weren't they counting Pledged Delegates?
- SHE RELIED ON OLD MONEY
For a decade or more, the Clintons set the standard for political fund-raising in the Democratic Party, and nearly all Bill's old donors had re-upped for Hillary's bid... But something had happened to fund-raising that Team Clinton didn't fully grasp: the Internet. [H]er donors were typically big-check writers. And once they had ponied up the $2,300 allowed by law, they were forbidden to give more. The once bottomless Clinton well was drying up.
After the 2006 campaign she should have known the power of the internet and the power of hugh numbers of small givers.
- SHE NEVER COUNTED ON THE LONG HAUL
Clinton's strategy had been premised on delivering a knockout blow early. If she could win Iowa, she believed, the race would be over. Clinton spent lavishly there yet finished a disappointing third. What surprised the Obama forces was how long it took her campaign to retool. She fought him to a tie in the Feb. 5 Super Tuesday contests but didn't have any troops in place for the states that followed. Obama, on the other hand, was a train running hard on two or three tracks. Whatever the Chicago headquarters was unveiling to win immediate contests, it always had a separate operation setting up organizations in the states that were next. As far back as Feb. 21, Obama campaign manager David Plouffe was spotted in Raleigh, N.C. He told the News & Observer that the state's primary, then more than 10 weeks away, "could end up being very important in the nomination fight." At the time, the idea seemed laughable.
They seemed to not have a grassroots volunteer campaign that was ready to roll at the right time in most of the states after Super Tuesday.
Now, of course, the question seems not whether Clinton will exit the race but when.
"No matter what happens, I will work for the nominee of the Democratic Party because we must win in November." When the task at hand is healing divisions in the Democratic Party, the loser can have as much influence as the winner.
I sure hope that Hillary is being honest about that. Her credibility is on the line. If she really wants what's best for America she'll do EVERYTHING possible to get Obama elected.
- PLAYING THE RACECARD. This was my addition.
"I have a much broader base to build a winning coalition on," she said in an interview with USA TODAY. As evidence, Clinton cited an Associated Press article "that found how Sen. Obama's support among working, hard-working Americans, white Americans, is weakening again, and how whites in both states who had not completed college were supporting me."
"There's a pattern emerging here," she said.
As far back as South Carolina when they said that SC's loss wasn't important, since even Jesse Jackson had won there, there been that excessive race injected into the campaign. Any one of the statements by themself would probably not be overtly racist or racebaiting in itself, but the pattern that developed and continues even now has hurt Hillary's campaign and her image. It's not just Black voters that were put off by them. I think most Americans thought they were over the edge.
I hope Hillary can apologize for at least the appearance of racebaiting in the campaign. She should say there was no intent to racebait, but she see's how some could see that her campaign had racebaited.
I have had a lot of respect for Hillary and Bill for many years.
If Hillary and Bill do the right thing by Obama, and do EVERYTHING POSSIBLE to get him elected, they will have my respect and admiration for many years to come.
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