TX-Sen: dKos poll confirms close Senate race

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 5/5-7. Likely voters. MoE 4%  (9/24-26/07 results)

Cornyn (R) 48 (51)
Noriega (D) 44 (35)

That is nothing short of astounding. And lest anyone worry that it's an outlier, these numbers confirm a Rasmussen poll from earlier this week:

Rasmussen. 5/1. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines)

Cornyn (R) 47
Noriega (D) 43

I also pitted McCain against both Obama and Clinton, and here, the results are a little less encouraging:

McCain (R) 52
Obama (D) 39

McCain (R) 53
Clinton (D) 38

Crosstabs below the fold.

Race tracker wiki: TX-Sen

TEXAS POLL RESULTS - MAY 2008

The Research 2000 Texas Poll was conducted from May 5 through May 7, 2008. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.  

Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.

SAMPLE FIGURES:

Men                 295    (49%)              
Women               305    (51%)
Democrats           199    (33%)    
Republicans         244    (41%)    
Independents/Other  157    (26%)
18-29               102    (17%)
30-44               198    (33%)
45-59               204    (34%)
60+                  96    (16%)

QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of John Cornyn? (If favorable or unfavorable, ask if it is very or not):

              VERY                VERY   NO
              FAV    FAV   UNFAV  UNFAV  OPINION  
ALL           22%    28%    21%    20%     9%

MEN           23%    32%    19%    18%     8%
WOMEN         21%    24%    23%    22%    10%
DEMOCRATS     10%    17%    32%    33%     8%
REPUBLICANS   34%    39%    13%    10%     4%
INDEPENDENTS  20%    26%    20%    20%    14%
18-29         18%    25%    24%    24%     9%
30-44         27%    32%    18%    16%     7%
45-59         23%    29%    19%    18%    11%
60+           19%    26%    24%    23%     8%

QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Rick Noriega? (If favorable or unfavorable, ask if it is very or not):

              VERY                VERY   NO
              FAV    FAV   UNFAV  UNFAV  OPINION  
ALL           18%    24%    17%    14%    27%

MEN           16%    21%    21%    16%    26%
WOMEN         20%    27%    13%    12%    28%
DEMOCRATS     33%    40%    10%     5%    12%
REPUBLICANS    7%    12%    26%    23%    32%
INDEPENDENTS  17%    23%    13%    11%    36%
18-29         22%    28%    13%    10%    27%
30-44         15%    20%    22%    18%    25%
45-59         16%    22%    20%    16%    26%
60+           20%    26%    14%    12%    28%

QUESTION: If 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Rick Noriega, the Democrat, and John Cornyn, the Republican?

            CORNYN    NORIEGA   UNDECIDED    
ALL           48%       44%        8%    

MEN           53%       40%        7%
WOMEN         43%       48%        9%
DEMOCRATS     11%       82%        7%
REPUBLICANS   81%       13%        6%
INDEPENDENTS  45%       45%       10%
18-29         43%       49%        8%
30-44         53%       38%        9%
45-59         51%       42%        7%
60+           45%       48%        7%

QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the job George W. Bush is doing as President?

            APPROVE   DISAPPROVE            
ALL           37%       63%

MEN           41%       59%                            
WOMEN         33%       67%                            
DEMOCRATS      5%       95%                            
REPUBLICANS   68%       32%                            
INDEPENDENTS  31%       69%                            
18-29         31%       69%                          
30-44         42%       58%                          
45-59         40%       60%                          
60+           36%       64%                            

QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of John McCain? (If favorable or unfavorable, ask if it is very or not):

              VERY                VERY   NO
              FAV    FAV   UNFAV  UNFAV  OPINION  
ALL           22%    29%    21%    18%    10%

MEN           25%    33%    18%    16%     8%
WOMEN         19%    25%    24%    20%    12%
DEMOCRATS      7%    18%    36%    31%     8%
REPUBLICANS   33%    37%    11%    10%     9%
INDEPENDENTS  23%    31%    18%    15%    13%
18-29         17%    23%    25%    22%    13%
30-44         26%    34%    17%    14%     9%
45-59         23%    30%    20%    17%    10%
60+           19%    27%    23%    20%    11%

QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Barack Obama? (If favorable or unfavorable, ask if it is very or not):

              VERY                VERY   NO
              FAV    FAV   UNFAV  UNFAV  OPINION  
ALL           17%    21%    19%    18%    25%

MEN           15%    18%    23%    22%    22%
WOMEN         19%    24%    15%    14%    28%
DEMOCRATS     31%    34%    10%     8%    17%
REPUBLICANS    5%     8%    28%    27%    32%
INDEPENDENTS  19%    24%    17%    16%    24%
18-29         21%    25%    15%    14%    25%
30-44         14%    17%    23%    22%    24%
45-59         15%    19%    21%    19%    26%
60+           18%    22%    18%    17%    25%

QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Hillary Clinton ? (If favorable or unfavorable, ask if it is very or not):

              VERY                VERY   NO
              FAV    FAV   UNFAV  UNFAV  OPINION  
ALL           15%    21%    24%    23%    17%

MEN           13%    18%    28%    27%    14%
WOMEN         17%    24%    20%    19%    20%
DEMOCRATS     28%    34%    14%    11%    13%
REPUBLICANS    4%     8%    32%    32%    24%
INDEPENDENTS  17%    24%    25%    24%    10%
18-29         17%    23%    21%    19%    20%
30-44         12%    17%    29%    29%    13%
45-59         13%    19%    27%    27%    14%
60+           18%    24%    19%    18%    21%

QUESTION: If the election for President were held today, who would you vote for if the choice were between Barack Obama, the Democrat, and John McCain, the Republican?

            MCCAIN    OBAMA     UNDECIDED
ALL           52%       39%        9%    

MEN           56%       36%        8%        
WOMEN         48%       42%       10%
DEMOCRATS     15%       79%        6%
REPUBLICANS   83%        6%       11%
OTHER         52%       40%        8%
18-29         45%       44%       11%
30-44         59%       34%        7%
45-59         57%       36%        7%
60+           47%       42%       11%

QUESTION: If the election for President were held today, who would you vote for if the choice were between Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, and John McCain, the Republican?

            MCCAIN    CLINTON   UNDECIDED
ALL           53%       38%        9%    

MEN           58%       35%        7%        
WOMEN         48%       41%       11%
DEMOCRATS     16%       79%        5%
REPUBLICANS   84%        5%       11%
OTHER         53%       37%       10%
18-29         46%       42%       10%
30-44         60%       33%        7%
45-59         58%       35%        7%
60+           47%       41%       12%

•  Obama v McCain in both?

  I know. I know.

  by jalapeno on Thu May 08, 2008 at 02:58:16 PM PDT

  •  Damn, you're fast.

    by lineatus on Thu May 08, 2008 at 02:58:53 PM PDT

    •  Voting for Obama or Obama

      I wanna know who the 1% of Texans who prefer to vote for Obama over McCain, but then McCain over Obama.

      by WinSmith on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:03:40 PM PDT

      •  Well

        Obama and Obama are the only possible nominees now.

        by Replace Harry Reid on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:05:19 PM PDT

      •  Probably those...

        whose preference is affected by the order in which the candidates are named.

        by leberquesgue on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:07:40 PM PDT

    •  But Obama

      Does as well as Clinton. And I'm almost sure those undecided women voters will lean towards Obama over McCain when all is said and done. Not that it will happen, but if Richardson is on the ticket, Obama can win Texas.

      I know Texas is a conservative and military state, but stranger things have happened.

      by Craig Hickman on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:12:10 PM PDT

      •  McCain going in with 240EV base

        It's worse than we acknowledge.

        McCain begins the general election with a solid base of the south, including Florida-already out of reach for Obama, the border states of Missouri, AR, KY, TN, and W.V. McCain is up anywhere from 15 to 35pts! The plains and mountain states (not including Colorado) are his, plus Alaska gives McCain a 'base' of around 240EV's to start! Looks like he's going to win New Hamsphire as well.

        The only states where Obama has a chance to take away from the Republicans this year are Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Iowa and a real long shot in Virginia (not going to happen).

        Whereas, McCain is ahead in Ohio (state could go either way), is today ahead in Michigan and is virtually even in Pennsylvania.  In order for McCain to win, all he must do is win ONE of the three rustbelt states, just ONE!

        Had it been a Hillary/Obama ticket it would have been a landslide for us, but alas....NO.

        by richmond199 on Thu May 08, 2008 at 05:22:37 PM PDT

        •  Bear in mind...

          McCain has been "running" effectively unopposed for weeks and weeks.  Also, not very many states have had recent GE polling.  I am interested to see how the situation changes as the Obama campaign retools for the GE race.

          Do not discount Obama's HUGE lead in fund raising.  This will allow Obama to contest some of the 5% to 10% states, forcing McCain to expend resources to defend his "solid base". [cough] Texas [/cough]

          by hillgiant on Fri May 09, 2008 at 06:45:18 AM PDT

      •  25% still 'no opinion' on Obama, favorable or not

        That is, 25% in the poll said they had no opinion on him when asked if their opinion was favorable or not.

        That's a lot of folks who haven't decided if they like the guy.  I have to think most of those folks will like him when they learn more about him.  After all, the biggest reason most voters might have qualms about him is his race (like it or not, and I don't), and anybody who's sentient enough to vote ought to know by now that Obama is black.  

        I suppose some of those 'no opinion' folks might actually have an unfavorable opinion but don't want to say so.

        by david78209 on Thu May 08, 2008 at 06:30:20 PM PDT

        •  Hyde Park, IL Liberal

          America is going to learn a great deal about the state senator serving Hyde Park, IL and why its so much like its sister cities of Cambridge and Berkeley. Folks in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Ohio are really going to really relate.
          Seeing Pastor Wright 'sermons' in 5.000 Republican 527 ads right up to election day. Rezko testifying, convicted, and off to jail (how did that property sale go again, Michelle?). Forget about rural America- they are hugging their bibles and Colt 45's cuz they're bitter as lemons.
          Ahhh! it's only May and as a Rookie running for President I can expect dozens more of near fatal/fatal mistakes that will kill my campaign and all downticket Dem's stupid enough to have supported me.

          Wow!  We Dem's are about to make three losers in a row. Ain't we proud?

          by richmond199 on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:59:01 PM PDT

    •  Obama v. McCain

      How many of those choosing McCain over Obama were angry Hillary supporters. I believe if that's the case then the race is actually around O42 and M 48.

      by Sarella Sand on Thu May 08, 2008 at 06:10:00 PM PDT

      •  Hillary Vpters

        Yep, alot of those white working class voters in Michigan, PA, and Ohio who voted for Hillary will be voting for McCain in HUGE numbers.  There is NO indication that Obama can win them back.

        by richmond199 on Thu May 08, 2008 at 06:16:05 PM PDT

        •  Troll n/t

          by paintitblue on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:50:31 PM PDT

  •  it's just Kos

    keeping us on our toes

    by amsterdem on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:06:24 PM PDT

  •  There Really Is Some Noise in the Data

    For posterity:

    I also pitted McCain against both Obama and Clinton, and here, the results are a little less encouraging:

    McCain (R) 52
    Obama (D) 39

    McCain (R) 53
    Obama (D) 38

    Crosstabs below the fold.

    by BlackGriffen on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:08:28 PM PDT

  •  Cornynhole

    I don't really expect Obama to beat McBush in Texas..but I would LLLLLUUUUVVVVVVV to see the repugnant Bushbot Repuke John Cornyn go back into the hole he crawled out of...everybody send $$$$ to Noriega.......

    by StuHunter on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:14:25 PM PDT

    •  here's the link

      http://www.ricknoriega.com

      by KTinTX on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:15:38 PM PDT

  •  speaking of kos-commissioned polls

    Considering all of the media talk of an Obama/Clinton "dream ticket" and the benefits the pairing would bring to the race, etc, etc... I've been looking to see a poll comparing Obama/Clinton v. McCain to Obama v. McCain.

    I'm hoping the traditional media might shut up about a "dream ticket" when the numbers demonstrated that Clinton does not contribute to the ticket.

    Kos, any chance you'd pay for a poll like that?

    by Yirmiyahu on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:33:15 PM PDT

•  Much Love from Houston!!!

  We're very excited about Rick's chances! Thanks for the confirmation.

  by Steven R on Thu May 08, 2008 at 02:58:33 PM PDT

  •  Yes we are!

    I'm surprised to see Rick's numbers right now. Most people are unaware of his prestigious military background and academic expertise - I'm sure the numbers will become more favorable once that information is spread...

    by otheruser on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:15:04 PM PDT

    •  Yes, as a judicial candidate

      in Harris County (Houston) I am optimistic that those Noriega/Cornyn numbers must mean that Noriega is well ahead in this area (his home town).

      We're gonna GOTV in Harris County this time, and we'll win in a walk!

      by mengelhart on Thu May 08, 2008 at 04:05:22 PM PDT

•  so, even though the McCain numbers are

  disappointing, it's still better with Barack.

  by lineatus on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:00:16 PM PDT

  •  I don't think the Presidential race numbers

    are all that bad, for Texas.  They're close enough now (before the beginning of serious campaigning) that at the very least, McCain won't be able to ignore Texas, and with some work they could get very close indeed.

    by PeterHug on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:50:19 PM PDT

  •  they are the same

    Given the size of this poll, there really isn't much difference between the performance of the two candidates.

    I was there on March 4, though, and I still think it will be within 10 points.

    by UTBriancl on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:52:55 PM PDT

•  The problem is

  that all the whites are going for McCain or will resort to writing in Clinton.

  by Internets on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:00:17 PM PDT

  •  I'm white, I'm in Texas, and I'm not doing that.

    by khereva on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:02:36 PM PDT

    •  I think that was sarcasm! N/T

      by bmozaffari on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:03:26 PM PDT

      •  It's possible!

        by khereva on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:03:47 PM PDT

    •  Do you drink lattes?

      Do you drive a Prius?

      (snarking)

      by Internets on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:16:57 PM PDT

      •  My Prius runs on lattes

        by Red Bean on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:19:04 PM PDT

  •  You know the beauty of that argument?

    Clinton is implying that the racists won't vote for Obama and that she knows this because a good chunk of her supporters are racist. Never mind how she's insulting her supporters but she's also saying that if it weren't for racists, I'd be much more than 820,000 votes behind. In essence, it's the anti-Ferraro argument.

    by bmozaffari on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:05:04 PM PDT

    •  What an elitist

      she is

      by offgrid on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:24:43 PM PDT

  •  I don't think so

    I think you have a very bad impression of Texas and the voter turn out we had in March and will have again in November.

    by refinish69 on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:59:39 PM PDT

•  McCain is running against Obama twice...

  It sure feels like that.

  by RichM on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:00:30 PM PDT

  •  It is not "like" that.

    by khereva on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:02:59 PM PDT

•  Well, it IS Texas.

  The state which by far has executed the most African Americans in the nation.

  by Arclite on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:00:44 PM PDT

  •  That's disingenuous.

    We've executed more everybody than any other state in the nation.

    by Slastankya on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:44:36 PM PDT

•  Wow!

  McCain beats Obama twice!  Ouch!

  by Monstertron on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:00:50 PM PDT

•  But wait, Hillary claims she won Texas

  and since she won it it's one of those states that will be important in the fall...how come she is losing worse than Obama there currently?

  by Dreggas on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:01:00 PM PDT

  •  Because the voters who prefer her to Obama

    prefer McCain to her even more.

    I'll take my Most Obvious trophy now.

    by Geenius at Wrok on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:04:25 PM PDT

  •  Because shut up is why. nt

    by scrutinizer on Thu May 08, 2008 at 07:19:12 PM PDT

•  I'm glad to see the Senate numbers hold up

  even in a poll that has the general numbers against McCain as less favorable than Rasmussen.

  by smash artist on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:01:15 PM PDT

•  I want to see

  poblanos numbers.

  by Sassy on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:01:34 PM PDT

•  Texas' Electotal Votes will go the Republican

  for as long as the Republic stands.

  by Pazuzu on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:02:26 PM PDT

  •  Electoral, that is.

    by Pazuzu on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:03:11 PM PDT

  •  They didn't used to.

    by PeterHug on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:51:24 PM PDT

  •  Maybe not for all so long as that

    but for now and into the foreseeable future ... yes.

    Enthusiasm is a fine thing, but some folks are just plain delusional.

    by moiv on Thu May 08, 2008 at 04:18:40 PM PDT

  •  Obama needs to watch his back

    The states which may come in to play are much more likely to be the ones that any Dem should carry with ease.  Obama has a lot more to worry about in NJ and CT, for example, than McCain does TX.

    As I see it, Obama doesn't stand a chance, unless some of those Red states decide to send electors on the basis of a caucus :-)

    Following super Tuesday, where he showed cross-over appeal, his primary wins were pretty much based on caucus wins (unrepresentative of a general electorate) and states with lots of Black voters (over-represented in a Dem primary compared to the general electorate) who voted for him at a 90% clip.  Blame it on whomever you want, but he has not been viewed as the same candidate he was in Jan and unless he can get his groove back he's a goner.

    His problem is illustrated by primary wins in OK and MS, for example (which helps to get a nomination), but where he has no chance of winning in Nov.  His performance in battleground states was disappointing each and every time (OH, FL, PA).

    by MJBrutus on Thu May 08, 2008 at 04:48:43 PM PDT

    •  Thank you, Hillary's Talking Points.

      by Slastankya on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:03:58 PM PDT

•  Thanks for funding this poll, kos

  As a Houstonian, I find it extremely encouraging about Noriega.

  However, the posting you have for Clinton and Obama against McCain shows two results for Obama/McCain and none for Clinton. Is the bottom result for Clinton/McCain?

  "They're all crazy. They're all crazy except you and me. Sometimes I have me doubts about you." -- Garrett Fort

  by Spathiphyllum on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:02:34 PM PDT

•  This should seriously boost his fundraising

  Now that it looks like we have a real race, he should get a serious influx of cash. Massively needed as Cornyn  is an absolutely amazing fund raiser. DSCC has committed to Oklahoma, now they might do the same for Texas.

  by pierredude on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:02:36 PM PDT

  •  Yeah

    We should probably e-mail this poll as well as the Rasmussen poll to Chuck Schummer or someone over at the DSCC, maybe that'll get em to notice this race.

    by Huwcs on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:24:35 PM PDT

    •  Oh, he's seen it.

      I'm sure he's already talked to Noriega about it.

      by davybaby on Thu May 08, 2008 at 08:59:05 PM PDT

•  Go Noriega!

  Wow.  Just wow.  Would I love to see him win this Senate seat, not only to put another good Dem in the Senate but to be rid of the sleazy Cornyn.

  And TX will be closer in the Prez race, but I have never thought we'd turn it blue in this cycle, no matter who are candidate is.

  by Miss Blue on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:02:53 PM PDT

•  63% of TEXANS dislike the guy fm their own stat?

  WOW!

  Oh, how I'd LOVE to win a Senate seat in W.'s home state now that many have disowned him!

  by ScottyUrb on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:03:50 PM PDT

  •  69% of independents

    There's enough there to swing it.

    by dewberry on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:05:18 PM PDT

  •  That's because

    Bush isn't really Texan. :) I'm from TX and I constantly proclaim to anyone who'll listen that his accent sounds like a complete sham (much like the man himself). No one sounds like that in Texas!

    by schala on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:19:11 PM PDT

    •  It is a sham

      thought up, no doubt, by Rove

      Georgie is a blue-blood, northeastern elitist snob, with a phony Texas accent.

      All hat, no cattle, as they say.

      by offgrid on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:27:18 PM PDT

      •  good one :) n/t

        by schala on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:33:59 PM PDT

•  We're excited here

  also about our chance at Harris County elections.  Rick Noriega is the right candidate for Texas--he has the cred and won't be swiftboated.

  We'll have to see if those numbers tighten in the presidential race.  My gut tells me they will...but my gut has sometimes eaten bad sushi.

  by dewberry on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:04:08 PM PDT

•  If Cornhole sees this

  you'll probably hear the sound of him shooting bolt upright for several miles around.

  Let's see--a Republican incumbent Senator in Texas is polling below 50 percent in a presidential year.  And he's also only four points ahead of the Democrat.  Man, I hope this is right ...

  by Christian Dem in NC on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:04:09 PM PDT

•  Obama/Richardson ticket

  would help Noriega drive up black and Latino turnout, something crucial for a Democrat to do decently in Texas. Obama is very popular in Houston, Dallas, Fort Worth, and Austin, helping Democratic turnout in those cities, while Richardson and Noriega would both excite Latinos in San Antonio, El Paso, and South Texas. If Noriega can do some outreach to suburban whites to keep those Cornyn margins below 65%, we are looking at an actual pickup opportunity.

  by Nathaniel Ament Stone on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:07:11 PM PDT

  •  Could anyone other

    than Richardson or Sebelius end up as Obama's running mate?

    Both seem so obvious that it's hard to picture anyone else.

    At this point I'm leaning Richardson.

    by 1973ok on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:09:49 PM PDT

    •  I'm leaning Richardson, too...

      If we can hold the Kerry / Gore states and take some in the Southwest or Mountain regions, that gets us to 270, even without Ohio and / or Florida. We should contest in all these areas and see how many we get.

      by LearningCurve on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:28:39 PM PDT

    •  A female Latina

      governor of a midwestern/western state would be the ideal choice,actually she'd have a good chance of being at the top of the ticket! sadly she doesn't exist... yet!

      The closest perosn i think of is Loretta Sanchez CA-47. She represents a red district in orange county and is a relatively senior member of the house (elected in 96). She was going to run for governor in the 2003 recall election but bowed out to Lt Gov Bustamante. She's the second ranking member of homeland security cmtte and is on the armed services cmtte. She's a blue dog but had the vision and courage to vote against the war in 2002. However she has endorsed clinton.

      by Huwcs on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:36:20 PM PDT

      •  Hold out hope!

        Edwards endorsed Edwards in '04, after all!

        by falsified on Thu May 08, 2008 at 04:29:46 PM PDT

      •  You don't want Loretta Sanchez

        Did you see her on Bill Maher last year?  I don't know if she was on something or what, but all she could do was giggle and flirt with the men on the panel.  I contributed to Sanchez (heck, I would have contributed to Godzilla just to get Bob Dornan out of office) ... but if that's what she does in public, you don't want her on any ticket!  

        by dotalbon on Thu May 08, 2008 at 05:28:24 PM PDT

        •  i have a vague

          recolection of a large "is Loretta Sanchez a whore?" text on the screen on the colbert report a hwile back when she left the CHC over some alleged sexist comments by Joe Baca.  

          by Huwcs on Fri May 09, 2008 at 02:21:06 AM PDT

  •  Sam Nunn

    Obama must go older than him and a person with national security gravitas.  Sam Nunn is the guy! Solid, not exciting, choice, but Obama needs it, he needs it bad to have any chance at all.

    by richmond199 on Thu May 08, 2008 at 05:26:57 PM PDT

•  Youth strongest for Noriega

  Obama pushes up youth % in GE and Noriega wins

  Yes. We. Can.

  by jhpdb on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:07:14 PM PDT

  •  Richardson Veep helps too.

    by Uniter on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:49:51 PM PDT

  •  What's with the 30-44 age voters?

    They have the highest support for Bush and Cornyn.

    Interesting how close the under 30's and the over 65's are.

    by Janet Strange on Thu May 08, 2008 at 05:10:18 PM PDT

•  Maybe Obama can ride Noriega's coattails?

  Hopefully the nomination fight all over but the shouting will make the dems focus on McCain. All of that cash Obama has should help.

  by jck on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:07:49 PM PDT

  •  Indeed

    And if Noriega's got the cash to compete, they can ride each other's coattails in different areas of strength.

    But he needs help,

    Here's where y'all can donate.

    by sotoro on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:37:39 PM PDT

  •  "Reverse Coattails" don't work.

    by davybaby on Thu May 08, 2008 at 08:57:37 PM PDT

•  How can 10% of Texas Democrats

  have a "Very Favorable" view of Cornhole? He's one of the biggest, most obnoxious Republican ideologues in the Senate.

  I know the Democratic Party is a big tent, but does it really have to include -- ahem -- Cornhole lovers?

  by 1973ok on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:08:21 PM PDT

•  Why are the Senate numbers so close to Ras

  but the presidential numbers so different?

  by Angry White Democrat on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:09:52 PM PDT

  •  people know Noriega better? n/t

    dunno

    by 1973ok on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:12:26 PM PDT

    •  I mean

      why are the Senate poll numbers so close to the Rasmussen poll, but the presidential numbers so different?

      by Angry White Democrat on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:25:10 PM PDT

•  West Virginia

  I think BO needs to come within 10 pts in WV to shut HRC up for good.

  I hate her "white voters" comment

  by Nath 4 BO on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:11:37 PM PDT

•  I'd chip in to funding polls with different VPs

  To see if that would actually make any difference.

  Just a thought.  

  by bosdcla14 on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:11:47 PM PDT

•  holy SMOKES

  This is just amazing... plus

  A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.

  Woot! We just need to crank out lots of new voters, and that's that! BLUE TEXAS!

  by bhagamu on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:11:54 PM PDT

•  TX was semicompetetive in 1992 and in 1996

  Bush I won it by 4% in 1992, and Dole won it by around the high single digits in 1996. Because he is from TX the state has been more Republican than average in presidential elections. I fully expect McCain to prevail in TX, but by a lesser, albeit still comfortable, margin.

  As for Conryn the DSCC should force the Republicans to spend money here. As the DSCC has recruited top tier challengers in most of the key races and has very good second and third tier candidates, the NRSC is facing an electoral nightmare.

  by oceanstar17 on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:12:15 PM PDT

  •  Obligatory reply - Bush is NOT from TX n/t

    by bwintx on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:13:38 PM PDT

    •  When Bush ran for Congress in 1978

      in a Midland-Lubbock district, his opponent ran commercials featuring somebody in a car with Connecticut license plates asking for directions.

      The obvious conclusion is that he vowed to never be "out-Texaned" again.

      by davybaby on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:06:01 PM PDT

      •  I wish somebody would put that on YouTube

        so we could force-show it to all my fellow real Texans. Between knowing deep down how rotten a job he's done and seeing that video, some of them might at least peel off their frickin' "W '04" and "BUSH/CHENEY '04" vehicle stickers, if not necessarily change their voting patterns right away.

        by bwintx on Fri May 09, 2008 at 05:18:10 AM PDT

  •  I hate to have to say this but

    Bush's poor performance in Texas in 1992 was probably due to the high vote for Perot in his home state. I don't accept the argument that Clinton would have lost the election without Perot but I do think that Perot certainly did cost Bush votes in Texas

    Similary Perot won approximately 6 per cent of the vote in 1996 that, combined with Dole's image as a lackluster candidate, probably accounted for Dole's poor performance here.

    Texas is winnable for the Democrats (Carter did it in 1976) but sadly I think not this year.

    by PD41 on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:04:52 PM PDT

•  Texas is turning blue

  So can Oklahoma. Click my sig!

  by droogie6655321 on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:13:23 PM PDT

•  McCain held to 52% in Texas...

  ...maybe not all that discouraging!

  by Arlingtonian on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:13:45 PM PDT

•  That is nothing short of astounding. It isn't

  No it's not. I've been saying it for ages but most people, kossites included, have been very dismissive anytime I've brought it up. Texas has never been a deeply red state. Once more then: The current republican domination of Texas politics is both comparatively recent and fleeting. I wish Molly was still around. Nobody knew more about Texas politics than she.

  by MargaretPOA on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:13:56 PM PDT

  •  I agree completely

    There have always been plenty of Democrats in Texas, and this war is turning out a brand new batch of them in the younger generations.

    by schala on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:23:13 PM PDT

    •  And the rising price of gasoline n/t!

      by DripWise on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:56:56 PM PDT

•  Speaking of Polls

  Reality check: this is from Gallup.

  Obama’s Support Similar to Kerry’s in 2004

  Before anyone starts griping about the outcome of '04: DIEBOLD, BLACKWELL, LAPDOGS, Fearmongering. <60,000 votes final difference.</p>

  The perspective for me is that we already have >3.5 newly voters + the switched voters in large numbers. Obama is just rolling out his 50 state registration drive. These numbers compare the '04 exit polls with the current polls - 6 months out from the actual vote.

  So even if HRC wants to use the new Clinton math, the Superdels should be able to do reality based math. (This so makes me think of Karl Rove going up to Nov of '06)

  by Ginny in CO on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:14:01 PM PDT

  •  Lousy proof read

    that should be > 3.5 MILLION newly registered voters

    by Ginny in CO on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:18:06 PM PDT

•  Hmm...

  I just noticed in the fav/unfav opinion of Noriega a surprisingly high percentage across the board of N/Os.  Is this indicative of problem with Noriega getting his message out? Or is it more of a case of people reserving judgement until closer to election time?

  "They're all crazy. They're all crazy except you and me. Sometimes I have me doubts about you." -- Garrett Fort

  by Spathiphyllum on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:14:39 PM PDT

•  Oooh, I wish they had called

  me!  White, female, um - third age group.

  Damn, I should answer my phone more often.

  by texasmom on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:17:37 PM PDT

•  Likely voters

  This is the fun part of the equation.

  Obama's goal with the voter registration drive is to upset that math.

  Sure, it's likely that the people that register and vote will just reflect the state of things already. But it's more likely that those people aren't covered by polling.

  It certainly won't improve enough to be competitive just on that basis.

  More interesting to me is the idea that Texas is a split state as far as the Dem nomination goes. I wonder how many of those people that said they'd vote for McCain are Obama/Clinton supporters that are still in "I hate Clinton/Obama" mindsets.

  Not sure if that can be pulled out of the crosstabs. A quick scan above makes me think it can't be.

  I'm not yet ready to decide that Texas is lost to Obama. Good thing. Because the election is still months away.

  by reklemrov on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:17:47 PM PDT

•  Overstates McCain's support

  He's not winning women, no WAY.

  by bhagamu on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:19:16 PM PDT

•  I think Obama will take TX

  First, turnout in the Democratic Primary on March 4th was = to 99.5% of the vote Kerry got in the 2004 race against homeboy Dubya.

  Second, Kerry won the suburbs (20% of the total vote) 68-32.

  Third, Bush won the URBAN areas (64% of the total vote) 67-32.

  Bush also won the rural areas 69-31 and that was 16% of the total vote.

  With almost 5 million Texans unregistered in 2004 and over 1.7 million of those registered not voting, I think it's all upside from here.

  I actually think turnout for the Democrats nationwide this year will hit an all time record for either party and I suspect Republican turnout will be even less than Kerry's vote in 2004.

  We obviously have work to do and it's being done. We have the enthusiasm and our opponents are not only uninspired, they are subdued.

  My projection. Obama will take TX by at least 6 points.

  Obamanos!!!

  by PointGuard on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:20:20 PM PDT

  •  Let's hope you're right...

    ...and if we win Texas, its a landslide.

    We've got work to do witha 41/33 GOP/DEM registration gap, though.

    Dems will have to virtually sweep the independents, where McCain is currently quite strong, and also win the turnout battle by a big margin.

    I think it can be done, though, if:

    1. Obama continues to show what a great candidate he is

    2. We can show that McCain is no maverick--pin the 3rd Bush term label on him.

    3. Keep registering new Dems, esp young, AA and latino voters.

    4. GOTV like mad

    by LearningCurve on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:33:25 PM PDT

    •  More info on the 2004 contest

      Whites (non-hispanic) made up 48.3% of the population of TX in 2006. In 2004 they made up 66% of the Presidential vote which Bush won 74-25.

      African Americans made up 11.9% of the population of TX in 2006. In 2004 they made up 12% of the Presidential vote which Kerry won 83-17.

      Latino Americans made up 35.7% of the population of TX in 2006. In 2004 they made up 20% of the Presidential vote which Bush and Kerry essentially tied with Kerry getting a tiny edge 50-49.

      There is so much upside there it is unbelievable. TX is going blue in 2008 and it may remain blue forevermore once TX Dems taste the sweet flavor of Victory.

      Yes.We.Can.

      by PointGuard on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:50:37 PM PDT

      •  One more last point....

        The Obama campaign knows how many potential votes it has in each state. Remember, long before the counting was done they reported that they would come up around 10k votes shy in IN. They also knew what the turnout was going to be in TX on primary day. They know the numbers.

        Everyone who focuses on the Campaign rallies and speaches as tools of pursuasion are missing the point I think. The point of the campaign, the focus of this campaign isn't winning hearts and minds. They know in advance who stands with them. See poblano's work. The focus of the campaign each and every day, with everything that they do is simply GOTV.

        by PointGuard on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:55:59 PM PDT

  •  There's a good chance

    Especially if he can appeal to Latino voters.

    by schala on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:40:42 PM PDT

  •  Besides, most Texans

    HATE McCain. I live with a former Rep. (I successfully converted him to our side) and he doesn't think McCain will do well here.

    by BlueTexasDem on Thu May 08, 2008 at 04:16:01 PM PDT

  •  As a reference point

    Bush trounced Kerry 62-38.

    52-39 is a good starting point for Obama.  That margin will only shrink as Hillary supporters slowly get brought into the fold. I don't think he'll win because he would need to win an unbelievably high % of GOP or Independent voters, but I do believe his coattails will help out Noriega immensely.

    by unertl on Thu May 08, 2008 at 04:26:52 PM PDT

    •  My estimates

      2004 Bush Kerry Other

      White 4,857,600 3,594,624 1,214,400 48,576
      AA 883,200 150,144 733,056 0
      Latino 1,472,000 721,280 736,000 14,720
      Other 147,200 23,552 113,344 10,304

      Totals 7,360,000 4,489,600 2,796,800 73,600

      61.00% 38.00% 1.00%

      2008 McCain Obama Other

      White 5,148,000 3,346,200 1,750,320 51,480
      AA 1,584,000 95,040 1,488,960 0
      Latino 2,970,000 1,128,600 1,811,700 29,700
      Other 198,000 69,300 126,720 1,980

      Totals 9,900,000 4,639,140 5,177,700 83,160

      46.86% 52.30% 0.84%

      Note: In 2004 there were well over 9 million registered voters already in the state but only around 7.4 million participated. In the 2006 Senate race that number dropped to about 4.5 million participants. I figure this is the playbook we're working with this time around. In 2006 the number of potential voters age 18+ was over 17 million. Upside baby. Upside.

      by PointGuard on Thu May 08, 2008 at 05:23:14 PM PDT

•  Really great news for Noriega

  Two polls in a row showing him just 4% points behind Cornyn. And people said it couldn't be done.

  If you want to join the campaign, to to http://www.ricknoriega.com

  If you want to donate, hit him up on the Blue Majority ActBlue page.

  by KTinTX on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:21:01 PM PDT

  •  Yes it is!!!!

    Rick will be our Next Senator!!!!

    Netroots For Rick Noriega Act Blue Page

    by refinish69 on Thu May 08, 2008 at 04:01:43 PM PDT

•  I think Rick Noriega actually has more name

  recognition than John Cornyn. I'd say apart from Kay Bailey Hutchinson, few people in Texas know who their "other" senator even is.

  by Uniter on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:41:33 PM PDT

  •  That's because he's totatally useless

    "Do nothing" fits Corny to a T.  He and the bush king could have been separated at birth.  No real accomplishments to speak of, yet incredibly dangerous due to their positions of power.

    Let 2008 be the year we send them both to the pasture!

    by SoniaS on Fri May 09, 2008 at 08:05:40 AM PDT

•  Wowza

  I think Rick is the right canidate to do a major fund drive for. This is a race that we could win and would replace a horrible senator with a fantastic senator.

  by Populista on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:58:30 PM PDT

•  Cornyn sucks

  I am in  his district and worked to get Noriega on the ballot. Cornyn just signed on with McCain on his "GI Bill" instead of Webb's bill. I called the office and the girl working there got flustered when I asked why he wasn't supporting the troops.

  by BlueTexasDem on Thu May 08, 2008 at 04:12:56 PM PDT

•  % of HRC voters not supporting Obama?

  and vice versa?

  I believe that's a very important number to gauge his potential support in the state.  As a reference, 10% of Texas Democrats in 2004 voted for Dubya.

  by unertl on Thu May 08, 2008 at 04:19:00 PM PDT

•  IMHO it will be a long time before

  either TX or OH returns to the democratic fold. The religio/conservative/fale-capitalist dogmas are just too strong in either to be broken right now. Regardless of who our candidate is.

  by shigeru on Thu May 08, 2008 at 04:31:32 PM PDT

•  Cornyn's probably the most extreme

  member of Congress. And he looks like Jay Leno without hair.

  I hate him with a passion.

  by amsel on Thu May 08, 2008 at 04:56:02 PM PDT

•  I really hope Cornyn loses

  It would be symbolic of the end of the Bush nightmare if his sycophantic little lap dog in the Senate were sent packing. No Republican senator has been so servile to Bush as Cornyn and with his master leaving town, he serves no more purpose in staying.

  by gf120581 on Fri May 09, 2008 at 12:53:56 PM PDT