It seems Hillary Clinton's new path to the nomination has been forged. Based on her and her strategist's statements over the last day or two, this path rests on one bold claim: Obama can't win white voters and is therefore unelectable.
Here's what their path to the nomination looks like:
Today: Hillary and her team drop not-too-subtle cues to the media that Obama cannot win the "working, hard-working Americans, white Americans" Democrats need in November. They will say Obama's support among white Americans is dwindling.
May 13: Hillary wins West Virginia by 20 points.
She holds a huge celebration/rally. Hillary thanks her supporters and again questions why Obama is struggling with the white working class. She will talk about how West Virginia is a traditional Democratic state, a "swing state" if she is the nominee against McCain. She will point to the primary results as proof that only she can beat the Republicans in West Virginia.
The re-energized media will ignore the fact that Obama was never favored to win West Virginia. Eager for the horserace to continue, the media will pick up Hillary's narrative. The media will wonder aloud if Rev. Wright has "scared away" white voters. They will ask whether Obama can beat John McCain in November without the support of white voters, while ignoring his strong support among whites in earlier states.
Meanwhile, Hillary continues to plead with supers to hold their endorsememnts until June 3 when "all voters will have had a chance to be heard." Hillary, Bill and Chelsea blanket Oregon.
May 20: Hillary wins Kentucky decisively and makes Oregon "closer than expected."
"What's wrong with Obama?" the Hillary camp will ask again. "Why can't he close the deal?" She will point to Kentucky exit polls showing her strong support among hard-working whites. She will claim a "comeback" in Oregon where she was down by "20 points" just a month earlier. She will more strongly than ever make the argument that Obama cannot win the general election without white support. Howard Wolfsen will talk about how voters are giving "a second critical look at Barack Obama" and how "Hillary has proven she can win the states that matter."
The media will play along. "Obama's White Problem" will be the topic of the Sunday morning and cable news shows. More clips of Rev. Wright will be played. The question "is Obama too black" will be asked.
June 1: Hillary wins Puerto Rico, as she has been favored to do for months. A huge celebration will follow. Hillary will claim to have strong broad-based support among hard-working whites, blacks, Hispanic and Latino voters.
With Obama's perceived "white problem" firmly implanted in the media, Hillary campaigns hard in Montana and South Dakota, hoping for positive movement in the polls.
June 3: Hillary hopes to win at least one, maybe both, of the states. If she can perform better than the expectations, she will claim a tie -- or an outright victory. If she can pick up even a handful of superdelegates after June 3, she will use it as "proof" that the nomination isn't sealed. She will then take the nomination to the convention floor.
* * * * *Of course, this is only speculation. My hunch is that Hillary won't have the resources to pull this off unless she dips heavily into her own bank account. And I'm not sure there's the stomach among top Democrats to see this strategy played out; someone would step in and end it. But if she were to go down this path, it has the potential to further divide and polarize the electorate and damage Obama in the process.
UPDATE: Math won't matter to Hillary. They've already made that clear.
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