Hillary Will Surrender By the Oregon Primary

After Wisconsin, Obama and his supporters realized he had won.  After North Carolina, the MSM got it--Obama has won.  Obama gave Hillary "space" to reached a dignified end.

Instead, Hillary proclaimed that she is the candidate of white america.  In a way, in this is fitting.  Kos called this the Clinton Civil War.  Hillary's attempt of coup by superdelegate has failed.  She is broke.  Two superdelegates has flipped on her.  McGovern said it was over.  Wolfson looking for a book deal.  She lost $11.4 million in loans that she will never get paid back.

Now, she looks like Jefferson Davis who refused to surrender for more than a month after Robert Lee did.  

But Hillary cannot run for forever, the forces of Democratic Party unity are going to force a surrender before, or shortly after, Oregon.  Four superdelegates yesterday including one flipper (a DNC person in VA).  In addition, McGovern flipped on her.  Edward's campaign chair today.  Two congressman during the day.  Then two congressman in the dead of night (including one flipper--Payne).   Both flippers were AA elected officals, what AA elected superdelegate is going to stand by Hillary as she proclaims herself the candidates for whites.  

Gallup noted that Obama a very good night of polling on Wednesday:

The May 5-7 update, which includes the first night of interviewing following the Indiana and North Carolina primaries, shows the candidates once again locked in a statistical tie. Neither candidate has held a significant lead for the last 15 days of Gallup tracking. However, Obama did well in interviews conducted on Wednesday night, suggesting that as the full impact of Tuesday's results and the media coverage of the status of the nomination campaign sinks in with voters, he may move back into the lead. (To view the complete trend since Jan. 3, 2008, click here.)

Look for Clinton's poll to decline rapidly in the coming days.

Superdelegates treated Obama like a rock star today.  And one Clinton superdelegate asked Obama for an autograph on a paper that proclaimed Obama winner.  

At this pace, Obama might be up 30 superdelegates and Hillary down 10 by Oregon on May 20, 2008.

Speaking of Oregon, Hillary was way behind before North Carolina and Indiana.  She was behind by 12 points as Obama was trying to shake off Wright.  With Wright behind him and the big win Tuesday under his belt, I think Hillary could easily lose Oregon by 24 points.  If she can still afford internal polls, what is she going to do the night before the Oregon primary when she gets the internal poll that shows one of the whiteness states in America is about to blow her away.    

And after Oregon, Obama will win the pledged delegate race.  He will have 1627.  (He is 33 away now, and he figures to pick up 10 in WV, 20 in Kentucky and then at least 28 in Oregon).

The vast majority of undeclared superdelegates who are elected are Pelsoi club members according to Mr. Super.  (See April 24, 2008 entry in blog).  So, Obama can look forward to a massive gain right after Oregon.

And once Obama reached 1627,  Obama will have one metric in which he has won the race and I bet a lot of Clinton superdelegates will use that metric as an excuse to flip in the name of party unity.

Despite the babble out her camp, Hillary is going to surrender.  And she is going to surrender no later than the night of the Oregon primary.

UPDATED

Lizardbox pointed out that May 20th is also an ugly day for Clinton because the money reports are due at the Federal Election Commission.  Maybe she is $20 million behind.  $10 million in debt and $11.4 million in loans.  And zero cash on hand.

•  Tip jar

  by jhwvertigo on Fri May 09, 2008 at 12:30:43 AM PDT

  •  You know what else happens on the 20th?

    We find out how much money her campaign owes. That number will be scary.

    by lizardbox on Fri May 09, 2008 at 12:32:52 AM PDT

    •  Hope Obama says, "Hillary who"? ...

      ...when those final figures come out. I've got this sick feeling that somehow, some way, we're (we Obama supporters) are going to get stuck with that tab in some sort of back-door deal with her in exchange for her supporting Obama. Scary thought, that tab has got to be out of this world. I even got an e-mail from Bill begging me for a contribution, and they know I'm an Obama supporter, too!

      by ImpeachKingBushII on Fri May 09, 2008 at 12:40:14 AM PDT

      •  Obama isn't stupid

        to piss off his base by paying debt owed to Mark Penn. Won't happen.

        by lizardbox on Fri May 09, 2008 at 12:46:32 AM PDT

        •  It's against the law

          for Obama's campaign to pay off HRC's whole debt.  He is allowed to donate but there is a legal maximum, $5000 or something like that.  He should contribute the $5000.  It would be tacky not to.

          by clyde on Fri May 09, 2008 at 01:10:53 AM PDT

          •  He can fundraise for her

            And he ought to.  Fatcats can afford to pay her to stand down.

            by Seneca Doane on Fri May 09, 2008 at 01:21:22 AM PDT

      •  he should allow those owed the debt to come forwa

        (forward)

        and he should pay all the mom and pop stores and all the deli stores and all those debts directly.

        by Hey BB on Fri May 09, 2008 at 03:12:28 AM PDT

        •  NO. They knew what they were getting into

          when they decided to do business with Clinton.  They need to pay for their own mistakes. They had a choice, they chose poorly.

          by AvoMonster on Fri May 09, 2008 at 03:58:39 AM PDT

          •  Heh

            I don't think that Obama should pay back Clinton her loaned money, nor should he pay back the polling people.

            It does keep the small business owners from being shafted, and truth be told shows a willingness to help folks during these tough economic times.

            by Hey BB on Fri May 09, 2008 at 06:15:29 AM PDT

            •  I'm not unsympathetic,

              it's just that it has been well publicized that she has a poor record of paying her vendors, that her campaign is cash-poor, and the vendors do have a choice.  I have my own business and if I see that a potential client will be a problem I will pass them up, it's not worth the hassle.

              These vendors could possibly file a small claims court or start a collection action, like UC Davis.

              by AvoMonster on Sat May 10, 2008 at 03:54:58 PM PDT

    •  May 20 is gonna be more fun than May 6. n/t

      by jamtown on Fri May 09, 2008 at 12:43:08 AM PDT

    •  That's only up until April 30th

      by jfern on Fri May 09, 2008 at 12:58:07 AM PDT

  •  Note, Oregon's primary is 100% mail-in...

    So last-minute movement is more like penultimate-minute movement.

    by synductive99 on Fri May 09, 2008 at 12:36:48 AM PDT

    •  I think I read that only

      1/3 are sent in right away.  Ballots mailed May 2 to May 6, so plenty of room for damage to Hillary.  My daughter (who is at Reed College in Portland) got her ballot on the 6th.

      by jhwvertigo on Fri May 09, 2008 at 12:40:10 AM PDT

  •  So, you think you can take on Rachel Maddow?

    Common sense and common decency would dictate that Hillary surrended on May 20.

    She won't.  It will happen no time before the DNC meeting on Florida and Michigan on May 31, and once that's over, why not wait three days for the whole process to end?

    Expect a week of grieving, then a ceremony of party unity on Flag Day, June 14.

    by Seneca Doane on Fri May 09, 2008 at 01:20:41 AM PDT

•  McGovern's not a superdelegate nt

  by Replace Harry Reid on Fri May 09, 2008 at 12:33:08 AM PDT

  •  Not counting him as a flipper

    Payne in NJ and some woman who is in the state house in Virginia

    by jhwvertigo on Fri May 09, 2008 at 12:34:23 AM PDT

•  Frankly I don't want her to concede until after

  Kentucky, It would be embarrassing if Obama were to KY as the presumptive nominee.
  So I think it's good that she stay in until May 21st.

  by notquitedelilah on Fri May 09, 2008 at 12:36:02 AM PDT

  •  Sorry typo, meant to say Lose KY

    as the presumptive nominee.

    by notquitedelilah on Fri May 09, 2008 at 12:37:22 AM PDT

•  look I know you're using an extended metaphor

  but comparing Clinton to Jefferson Davis goes way overboard - this in light of the diary a spots down calling Clinton a member of the KKK.

  by bhagamu on Fri May 09, 2008 at 12:36:47 AM PDT

•  Perfect - the end for Hillary

  at the end of the Oregon Trail

  http://www.endoftheoregontrail.org/...

  by sara seattle on Fri May 09, 2008 at 12:39:08 AM PDT

•  True, Oregon is a pretty white state

  but it's full of eggheads. Doesn't count. Ask Paul Begala. Gotta have working, hard working white Americans, not dirty hippies and rainbow gays and lesbians.

  Oregon, a former home of mine. I lived in Portland for 13 years. And don't believe the hype, south of Woodstock Blvd in Portland and East of 82nd ave there are lots and lots of (not)working, hard working white Americans in Oregon. Lots.

  by magurakurin on Fri May 09, 2008 at 12:46:11 AM PDT

  •  For a long time, Portland

    was the whitest large metro area in USA

    by jhwvertigo on Fri May 09, 2008 at 12:49:06 AM PDT

  •  Whitness didn't seem to hurt Obama

    In states like Washington, Idaho, and Utah.

    by jfern on Fri May 09, 2008 at 12:59:03 AM PDT

    •  And Iowa.

      by BlueSky221 on Fri May 09, 2008 at 05:56:44 AM PDT

•  I can't wait to see the new Gallup numbers.

  Gallup said Obama's Wednesday numbers were good, so we shall see....

  by ObamaManiac2008 on Fri May 09, 2008 at 12:53:07 AM PDT

•  I can't freaking wait to post that night's diary

  It's already near-finished.  That's going to be fun.

  by PocketNines on Fri May 09, 2008 at 12:53:07 AM PDT

  •  PocketNines, my only regret

    if Hillary leaves before Oregon is not seeing your diary on how the congressional districts turn out.  Oh, after reading your posts in reply to something I posted on Open Left, I realize you were right and I was far too kind to Hillary.  She is done.  No, 2012 no matter how she well she exits this race.  

    by jhwvertigo on Fri May 09, 2008 at 12:57:25 AM PDT

    •  I'm posting it anyway.

      She's not dropping out.  The line that always goes through my mind is from The Terminator.  "... and it absolutely will not stop, ever, until you are dead!"

      I am trying to think of a good sports metaphor for the degree of voluntariness of the eventual exit.  Anybody seen any good horse races lately?

      I actually see her recent white comments as a giant Eff You to black voters, who might have given her the nomination if she hadn't run such a morally bankrupt racial code campaign.  Had black voters split merely 75-25 or even 80-20, she might've had a shot.  She'll never be president or the nominee now.  It was the cynically smug way in which she went about it, that will be remembered for a loooooooong time.

      by PocketNines on Fri May 09, 2008 at 01:08:47 AM PDT

      •  Great, I look forward to seeing Obama crush

        her in your diary.  

        by jhwvertigo on Fri May 09, 2008 at 01:10:18 AM PDT

      •  So you don't think that that was the opening shot

        of her 2012 campaign?  ;7)

        by Seneca Doane on Fri May 09, 2008 at 01:23:28 AM PDT

      •  Hmmm... good sports metaphor...

        just brainstorming here...some wouldn't quite work... maybe I'm a little too old to remember a couple of these.

        - a team that's folded, or folded up and moved to another city, or one that's lost all its support. - a coach taking out his starting pitcher, though the pitcher insists he can still throw a few high hard ones. - an umpire ejecting a starting pitcher for throwing at the head of his opponent once too often. - (I always liked the comparison of Hillary to Tonya Harding). - Jim Brown attempting to make a comeback, though no longer has his legs. - ABC Sports intro: The Agony of Defeat
        .

        by ayjaymay on Fri May 09, 2008 at 02:32:47 AM PDT

      •  She squandered the black vote

        obama was never expected to pull it like he does.  This is a reaction to HIllary's morally bankrupt, demeaning campaign.  I always thought he'd pull 65/35 once he became a real contender; but this is what will be written by historians:  how the Democratic candidate with the Clinton name in the 21st century, and a woman, so reviled the most loyal voting block of the Democratic party.  

        That the supers didn't come out en masse after the orchestrated "white vote" mantra from Hillary herself and every surrogate I saw all day, is appalling.  

        by 57andFemale on Fri May 09, 2008 at 02:58:13 AM PDT

•  I agree with the analysis . . .

  but not with the tone.  

  The outcome of the primary is clear, but the outcome of the general election is not.  At this stage I would give the other half of the family a little while to vent, but I wouldn't burn bridges by referring to "surrendering".  It will matter come November whether the Clintons are actively on board, or whether they signal their implicit disapproval by sitting on the sidelines.

  Even though they may not deserve it, I would still give them a little room for a dignified "step down".  

  If they keep this up throughout June I think a change in tone is unavoidable.  At this stage though I would just focus on the road ahead -- and not try to find ways to throw up new obstacles that make the end game even more challenging.

  by NotGeorgeWill on Fri May 09, 2008 at 01:11:32 AM PDT

  •  I see your point

    and I posted two diary that took a different tone  (see With Malice Toward None and Hillary, there is still good in her).  However, I find the white americans comment offensive and for me Hillary lost her chance to step down with dignity.      

    by jhwvertigo on Fri May 09, 2008 at 01:16:30 AM PDT

    •  I see your point as well . . .

      at this stage though I still personally wouldn't throw around a term like "surrender".  

      At this point Clinton is pretty much digging her own hole.  I don't think she needs any encouragement.  Her people are looking for a reactive response -- it's probably best not to give it to them.

      Don't know if you caught it, but I thought Joe Conanson's Salon.com column spells out the issue for the Clintons in bright red lettering.  I've seen the same message tonight in the Washington Post and in the NY Times.  The message to the Clintons is pretty clear -- if they aren't hearing it, I would expect to see more movement from supers over the coming days.  

      by NotGeorgeWill on Fri May 09, 2008 at 01:54:53 AM PDT

      •  Nice article thanks for the tip

        I have gone back and forth on the right approach.  A few days ago, I argued at heart that Hillary was a good democrat and would do the right thing.  My post unreleased a rash of rants that shook me.  And yet tonight while watching the late broadcast of Countdown on the West Coast, I found myself completely outraged by the "white americans" comment.  Perhaps,  the best view is that Hillary should just be ignored as irrelevant.  Events are now beyond her ability to control.  

        by jhwvertigo on Fri May 09, 2008 at 02:05:44 AM PDT

        •  That's one reason . . .

          that I no longer watch political coverage on TV.  The good news is that I think there are probably many who share your outrage over Clinton's remarks.

          On my own side, I think part of this for me comes down to a sense that Obama is coming down the home stretch.  His reception in the House of Representatives today seemed to confirm that reaction.  If Hillary was to go to the House tomorrow would she receive the same reception?  She attempted to meet in private with some supers on Wednesday and they just ignored her (the reason being ostensibly that they couldn't miss an important vote).

          I think the Clintons deserve a little room to vent -- and I have absolutely no problem with her staying in the race -- provided she keeps her focus positive and on the general election (not on the convoluted ways that the nomination could happen for her).  I also think the Clintons could potentially be a real asset going into the general election as surrogates -- although this could become a less open question if the shenanigans continue.

          I think the idea that you hit on -- that HRC will be ignored as irrelevant -- this probably is her (and Bill's) greatest fear.  I think some of the extreme behavior is a little bit akin to an late 20 something Britney Spears who feels that she has to do more and more outrageous things to get attention.  

          The key thing at this stage is to keep the eye on the prize.  Like you say -- events are pretty much beyond Clinton's control at this stage.  There are certain things that she can do to make things worse for herself -- and make the process move along faster.  Hopefully though, she takes her own "victory lap," appreciates the moment, and doesn't behave in a way that ensures her moment will be cut short by the party leadership.  (Clinton's "victory lap" won't lead to the nomination -- but it might give her some time to clear her head in advance of the general election).

          by NotGeorgeWill on Fri May 09, 2008 at 02:28:16 AM PDT

  •  While it is vitally important that

    Clinton supporters feel comfortable enough to come on board, principle dictates that there must be a limit to one's willigness or openness to tolerating bullshit, especially bullshit draped in racial innuendo, as was her "white Americans support me" comment. Hillary Clinton has lost her marbles to make a statement as racially divisive as that. Apart from the fact that it was daft, if you consider the flip side, she is losing the black vote 9-1. How the hell is she going to win the general election if she is perceived to have stolen the nomination from the first viable black guy -- which at this point is the only way she can get it. How is a Democrat going to win the general election if his/her arse isn't sitting pretty on the lion's share of the African American vote?  Furthermore, more importantly, there is an unspoken code of racial harmony that binds the blacks, whites, jews, latinos, gays and random immigrant groups together under the Democratic umbrella. Hillary Clinton is tearing that pact apart simply because things aren't going so well for her. The Clintons are a spoilt group and they need to grow the fuck up. The Presidency of the US, and indeed, any country -- except Zimbabwe -- is not a bloody chattel to be tossed around a family tree at one's whim or caprice. The American obviously electorate wants to move forward and the Clinton camp need to stop whining like a spoilt collection of babies just because they have failed to get their sequel.

    I don't give a flying fuck or a swimming shit if she stays in the race even after Obama has reached 2,025, my only request is that she stops chatting shit, stops laying her fingers on the presumptive nominee, and stop throwing about stupid racial nonsense. I wouldn't support the Democratic Party if this had been their track record.

    by The British Observer on Fri May 09, 2008 at 01:33:31 AM PDT

    •  Agreed . . .

      there are ways to call bullshit though.  

      It's one thing to say "surrender" -- it's another to say "cut out the bullshit HRC".  I've seen this phrase uttered today (and in tomorrow's papers) in about 1,000 different forms.  I think most people are on the same page at this point.  

      I think the key is to get the Clinton's to cut out the bullshit.  My instinct says that telling them to "surrender" won't achieve the desired objective, so I see it as counter-productive.  Maybe I'm wrong on this one.  I don't see anyone telling the Clinton's to "surrender" -- what will simply happen is that one day they will simply find themselves on the outside looking in -- if they don't change their approach.  I suspect that they (and their surrogates) are being told this as well in 1,000 different ways from party insiders tonight.

      I don't think the reality has fully sunk in yet for them that the nomination is a lost cause, but I think we're getting closer to that point.  

      This reminds me a little bit of when Ted Kennedy came out in support of Obama after South Carolina.  The move served as a reality check for Bill Clinton in light of comments that he'd made between New Hampshire and South Carolina.  It's worth noting that Bill has still made some bone-headed comments, but for the most part he's kept it clean since that last week in January.

      If HRC is not careful, she will have her own public Ted Kennedy moment.  The message that the Clintons are going to start receiving is that they are not only risking standing with the party, but a role within the party period.  No one is going to say that outright in public, but that message is probably being expressed to them in stark terms tonight from party leaders to their surrogates -- perhaps even directly to the candidate.  

      by NotGeorgeWill on Fri May 09, 2008 at 02:13:02 AM PDT

  •  I disagree, NotGeorgeWill...

    It will matter come November whether the Clintons are actively on board, or whether they signal their implicit disapproval by sitting on the sidelines.

    They didn't lift a finger to help Al Gore but he won anyway (even though the Rethugs stole it from him).  I honestly think that their active support would hurt Obama more than help him in November.  A gracious release of their delegates in his favor and an end to further shenanigans would go a long way in healing the party and helping Hillary to retain her Senate seat. If they are trying to pull some kind of extortion over the Obama campaign to secure the veep position, they should be told in no uncertain terms that not only will she not be getting the veep appointment but she will be actively opposed for her next Senate bid.  Not only the Clintons can play hardball.  The Obama campaign has the winning hand and with that comes the power to end this thing.

    by Wings Like Eagles on Fri May 09, 2008 at 12:39:48 PM PDT

•  I swear, I don't think the Clintons own a

  white scarf.  They never just give up.

  by browneyes on Fri May 09, 2008 at 01:35:05 AM PDT

  •  As I said;

    by The British Observer on Fri May 09, 2008 at 01:37:01 AM PDT

    •  Hillary is going to have to be dragged

      out of the race by her hair, kicking and screaming, blaming everybody else for her failed candidacy.

      by browneyes on Fri May 09, 2008 at 01:40:01 AM PDT

  •  As I said;

    I don't give a flying fuck or a swimming shit if she stays in the race even after Obama has reached 2,025, my only request is that she stops chatting shit, stops laying her fingers on the presumptive nominee, and stop throwing about stupid racial nonsense.

    In fact, for all I care, she can keep campaigning after the general election is over. She just needs to be sensible and grown up about it. This is a Democratic primary, no vote take precedence over the other. The electoral consequence of a black vote in South Carolina is equivalent to the electoral consequence attached to a white vote in Alaska. This idiotic attempt to somehow imply that Obama's support is limited to black people and thus, super delegates should overturn the clear results of the primary is not only alarmingly daft, but potentially dangerous. And I trust the Clintons are smart enough to understand this, so I don't understand why they are even making the argument.

    Watching the statement on youtube, I could not but feel like it is beneath her--a Democrat, who has ridden on the back of black votes, to make such an argument. It's petty, it is a sign of weakness, it is a sign of desperation and it is sad. In my humble opinion, HRC needs to be removed from the political process forthwith. She is poisonously divisive and continues to thread a path that has the potential to rip the Democratic Party asunder. The Democratic establishment has manifested institutional cluelessness and a collective lack of testicular prowess by failing to impress upon the Clinton duo that a nominee has emerged and it is important that he remains unscathed.

    by The British Observer on Fri May 09, 2008 at 01:48:44 AM PDT

•  What about Dorothy?

  And Toto?

  by catilinus on Fri May 09, 2008 at 01:40:20 AM PDT

•  I'm so tired of hearing things like:

  "She can stay in the race as long as she likes as long as she avoids pitting whites against blacks" (in so many versions).

  The fact is SHE HAS PROVEN HERSELF UNABLE TO DO SO, so these statements are just pipe dreams.  She has been given time to exit gracefully (ah, ELEVEN straight losses!).  We have known for several weeks that the ONLY way she could win would be by having the SDs endorse her instead of following the will of the electorate.

  The fact that there is no history of them doing that and the detriment to the party in general for doing it when we have a viable, charismatic, undisputedly better organized/financed AA candidate, etc. etc.--has been known for weeks.

  Therefore, to suggest that we should not use the word "surrender" because it might overstate the issue or be a slap in the face is simply ridiculous at this point.  She needs the slap in the face or an "intervention" in order to snap back and realize that it simply will not happen.  

  The longer we let it go on, the greater the disservice we do not only to Obama and the Party, but also to her.  For those of you who claim to be sympathetic to her suffering, think of this:  the longer she goes on, the more she damages her own legacy and that of Bill's.

  by flor de jasmim on Fri May 09, 2008 at 02:44:39 AM PDT

•  BREAKING NEWS

  REP Payne of NJ switches to Obama. Rep DeFazio endorses Obama.

  http://thepage.time.com/

  by blue2win on Fri May 09, 2008 at 04:06:03 AM PDT