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Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 6/9-11. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines)

Inhofe (R) 53
Rice (D) 31

Inhoffe over 50 percent, Rice is 22 points back. Looks rough. But check this out:

If the election for US Senate were held today, would you to reelect Jim Inhofe, would you consider voting for another candidate or would you vote to replace Inhofe?

Reelect 39
Consider someone else 23
Replace 28

That's a remarkably low re-elect number. So what is keeping Rice down? Name ID.

Do you have a favorable or un favorable opinion of Andrew Rice?

Not sure: 52

Less than half of Oklahoma voters know who Rice is, but over 50 percent will consider voting for someone not named Inhoffe.

So yeah, this race is currently decidedly third-tier, but if Rice can get the resources to get his name ID up, we could make a run for it. Perhaps this is what the DSCC saw when they decided to send up to 10 staffers to Oklahoma to help with this race.

Another good sign are the Obama-McCain numbers:

McCain (R) 52
Obama (D) 38

This is a state that Bush won by 32 points in 2004, 66-34. That same year, Tom Coburn beat Democrat Brad Carson by 12, so Democrats can certainly outperform the national ticket. Carson did so by 20 points. So if Obama can keep it close, ticket splitters could certainly put Rice over the top. Tough? Obviously. Likely? Nope. But it's within the realm of possibility.

Full cross-tabs below the fold.

On the web: Andrew Rice for Senate

OKLAHOMA POLL RESULTS - JUNE 2008

The Research 2000 Oklahoma Poll was conducted from June 9 through June 11, 2008. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.  

Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.


Sample Figures  
         
Men       290       48%      
Women     310       52%      
         
Dem       258       43%      
Rep       246       41%      
Ind       96        16%      
         
18-29     113       19%      
30-44     181       30%      
45-59     161       27%      
60+       145       24%      
         
East      110       interviews
OK City   176       interviews
Tulsa     169       interviews
West      145       interviews


Do you have a favorable or un favorable opinion of Jim Inhofe?
         
         Very      Very      No        
         Fav       Fav       UnFav     UnFav     Sure      
         
All       19%       28%       28%       17%       8%
   
         
Men       21%       30%       27%       17%       5%        
Women     17%       26%       29%       17%       11%      
         
Dem       7%        17%       42%       26%       8%        
Rep       31%       41%       13%       8%        7%        
Ind       19%       27%       29%       16%       9%        
         
18-29     16%       24%       32%       20%       8%        
30-44     22%       31%       25%       15%       7%        
45-59     20%       30%       26%       16%       8%        
60+       18%       26%       29%       17%       10%      
         

Do you have a favorable or un favorable opinion of Andrew Rice?
         
         Very      Very      No        
         Fav       Fav       UnFav     UnFav     Sure      
         
All       8%        24%       11%       5%        52%

         
Men       7%        23%       13%       6%        51%      
Women     9%        25%       9%        4%        53%      
         
Dem       13%       38%       5%        3%        41%      
Rep       4%        10%       19%       7%        60%      
Ind       5%        23%       7%        5%        60%      
         
18-29     11%       28%       8%        3%        50%      
30-44     6%        22%       13%       7%        52%      
45-59     6%        22%       12%       6%        54%      
60+       9%        25%       10%       4%        52%      
         


If the election for US Senate were held today, would you to reelect Jim Inhofe, would you consider voting for another candidate or would you vote to replace Inhofe?
         
         Reelect   Consider  Replace   Not Sure  
         
All       39%       23%       28%       10%

         
Men       42%       25%       25%       8%        
Women     36%       21%       31%       12%      
         
Dem       11%       23%       51%       15%      
Rep       69%       21%       4%        6%        
Ind       35%       25%       30%       10%      
         
18-29     36%       25%       32%       7%        
30-44     42%       21%       24%       13%      
45-59     40%       22%       26%       12%      
60+       38%       24%       31%       7%        

         

If the election for US Senate were held today, would you vote for Andrew Rice, the Democrat, or Jim Inhofe, the Repblican?
         
         Inhofe    Rice      Und      
         
All       53%       31%       16%
 
         
Men       57%       30%       13%      
Women     49%       32%       19%      
         
Dem       22%       62%       16%      
Rep       85%       5%        10%      
Ind       54%       15%       31%      
         
18-29     48%       34%       18%      
30-44     57%       28%       15%      
45-59     56%       30%       14%      
60+       51%       32%       17%      
         
East      55%       29%       16%      
OK City   54%       30%       16%      
Tulsa     48%       35%       17%      
West      57%       28%       15%      
         
         

If the election  for President were held today, would you vote for Barack Obama, the Democrat, or John McCain the Repblican?

         McCain    Obama     Und      
         
All       52%       38%       10%

         
Men       56%       36%       8%        
Women     46%       44%       10%      

Dem       20%       70%       10%      
Rep       84%       7%        9%        
Ind       55%       33%       12%      

18-29     48%       43%       9%        
30-44     56%       34%       10%      
45-59     54%       35%       11%      
60+       50%       40%       10%      

East      54%       36%       10%
OK City   54%       37%       9%
Tulsa     46%       43%       11%
West      56%       34%       10%
         
         

Do you approve or disapprove of the job George W. Bush is doing as President?
         
         Approve  Disapprove  Not Sure
         
All       40%       56%        4%

         
Men       42%       55%        3%
Women     38%       57%        5%
         
Dem       11%       88%        1%
Rep       71%       23%        6%
Ind       39%       56%        5%
         
18-29     36%       61%        3%
30-44     44%       52%        4%
45-59     42%       53%        5%
60+       39%       58%        3%
     


Do you have a favorable or un favorable opinion of Andrew Rice?
         
         Very      Very      No        
         Fav       Fav       UnFav     UnFav     Sure      
         
All       8%        24%       11%       5%        52%
     
         
Men       7%        23%       13%       6%        51%      
Women     9%        25%       9%        4%        53%      
         
Dem       13%       38%       5%        3%        41%      
Rep       4%        10%       19%       7%        60%      
Ind       5%        23%       7%        5%        60%      
         
18-29     11%       28%       8%        3%        50%      
30-44     6%        22%       13%       7%        52%      
45-59     6%        22%       12%       6%        54%      
60+       9%        25%       10%       4%        52%      

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Thu Jun 12, 2008 at 12:53 PM PDT.

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