Day's 2nd FLORIDA poll (ARG): Obama 49-McCain 44

A new wave of polls adds to the already very long list of polls released today:

• A new ARG poll finds him ahead by 5% in Florida (Obama led by 4% in a Quinnipiac poll released earlier today, and note that he had never led in a FL poll before today).
• Obama is also cruising in New Hampshire.
• BUT Rasmussen finds a tie in OH (Quinnipiac and PPP had found Obama ahead by 6-11 over the past two days).

Full roundup on Campaign Diaries.

The Florida poll is great news for Obama as they put to rest speculation that McCain has already put this state away. Republicans might still have an edge in the state (after all the party survived 2006 pretty well here, cruising to gubernatorial victory in an open seat) but McCain will definitely have to play defense in a state he really cannot afford to lose.

As an added bonus, ARG has polled the Senate race in NH and confirmed what we already knew: Shaheen is favored to beat Senator Sununu.

•  ARRGGGGGGGG

  by RandySF on Wed Jun 18, 2008 at 03:11:34 PM PDT

  •  Pirate polling.

    by Bindle on Wed Jun 18, 2008 at 03:18:21 PM PDT

    •  You Are a Pirate - Lazy Town

      4chan memes and Daily Kos collide for epic lulz.

      by Fro on Wed Jun 18, 2008 at 05:12:25 PM PDT

  •  Even if it is ARG

    the trend is good enough to make McCain WORK for Florida, and even if we don't win FL in the end, just his needing to work for it and invest in it helps us a lot!!!!

    That's the beauty of 50-state -- if we can make some of the red leaning swings just a bit unsteady, they have to spend resources -- it takes the battle to them instead of allowing them to invest everything they've go in our must-win swings.

    by silent no more on Wed Jun 18, 2008 at 03:38:16 PM PDT

•  tip jar

  by LeftistAddiction on Wed Jun 18, 2008 at 03:13:01 PM PDT

  •  I'd like to tip, but it's an ARG poll

    They just don't have a track record to stand on.  Pretty numbers though.

    by ourhispanicvoices on Wed Jun 18, 2008 at 03:32:30 PM PDT

•  too bad it's ARG............................

  maybe they are improving their polling techniques after so many failures. And it does line up with Quinnipiac...

  by fangorina on Wed Jun 18, 2008 at 03:13:45 PM PDT

  •  I know

    I'm trying to determine how much I believe their results.  They are extra shyte-y so often that I don't what to believe when correspond with another poll that I believe.  

    (scratches head)

    by christomento on Wed Jun 18, 2008 at 03:23:30 PM PDT

  •  Yeah, but that's good! They always UNDER-

    estimate Obama's poll numbers.  This means he's up by 30 in FL!

    by PittsburghPete on Wed Jun 18, 2008 at 03:25:43 PM PDT

•  All these polls mean is that McCain will soon

  be parroting bush's line of "Polls don't matter."

  by darthstar on Wed Jun 18, 2008 at 03:14:13 PM PDT

  •  He's lockstep with Bush on oil & Iraq

    He's a maverick in the media.

    by FishOutofWater on Wed Jun 18, 2008 at 03:18:09 PM PDT

  •  Florida doesn't count.

    by PittsburghPete on Wed Jun 18, 2008 at 03:26:06 PM PDT

  •  No, he'll be sitting in back rooms

    with good ole boys willing to offer him big money to develop some temporary illness. I don't think it will work, because his major disability is his ego, but they'll try because the down ticket races are looking more and more anemic.

    by MrMichaelMT on Wed Jun 18, 2008 at 04:16:41 PM PDT

•  Work hard!

  Regardless of what polls say there most likely be the strongest Republican attack machine ever created supporting every naive, stupid, scurrilous rumor against the first black president. We need to establish Obama and his wife as what they are: strong, nice, intelligent people with deep core values. He is also by far the best man to lead the country.

  by LWelsch on Wed Jun 18, 2008 at 03:16:24 PM PDT

•  Ras did a nat'l poll on drilling, FL data needed

  While voters in Ohio may think it's just fine to drill offshore of Tampa, Floridians may not be so thrilled.

  I suspect republicans looked at the national polls and  neglected the electoral vote implications. The drilling could hurt them in key areas in Florida and North Carolina.

  by FishOutofWater on Wed Jun 18, 2008 at 03:17:04 PM PDT

  •  It just agrevates me

    I bet a lot of the people who say it is ok to drill don't realize it isn't going to help at all.

    by sulthernao on Wed Jun 18, 2008 at 03:28:11 PM PDT

  •  These polls are before McCain's

    new drilling proposal off of FL.  These numbers should change dramatically as the GE continues.  This race is so volatile to me.  Just imagine when Obama and all his surrogates 'really' start campaigning.  This will be a tremendous landslide of a victory for Democrates united everywhere.  

    Obama/Webb '08

    by 3O3 on Wed Jun 18, 2008 at 04:46:38 PM PDT

•  New Hampshire

  Where does it say Obama is cruising in NH?  The last few polls I saw showed McCain slightly ahead in NH.

  I suspect that eventually NH will turn blue for this election, but I would like to see evidence of Obama surging ahead in this state.

  by lalawguy on Wed Jun 18, 2008 at 03:29:33 PM PDT

  •  They came out with another poll that had

    Obama by 12% in NH. It is ARG, but the last Rasmussen has Obama by 5% in NH. He might be turning it around there.

    by jj32 on Wed Jun 18, 2008 at 03:36:10 PM PDT

•  ARG: "Please love us again. We're getting better"

  by jamtown on Wed Jun 18, 2008 at 03:35:55 PM PDT

•  You need to add in the electronic "swing" factor

  by LRT on Wed Jun 18, 2008 at 03:55:59 PM PDT

•  Remember, the New York Blues

  aren't here right now. They will add to the margin since the majority vote here to avoid state income tax.

  by MrMichaelMT on Wed Jun 18, 2008 at 04:15:44 PM PDT

•  McCain's position on oil drilling is probably

  anathema to voters there. They don't want oil spills in the water. And that position is heavily unpopular. Even Charlie Crist has come out in favor of that and that isn't going to help the GOP ticket there.

  by oceanstar17 on Wed Jun 18, 2008 at 04:56:12 PM PDT