Senator Obama is running as the candidate for change. McCain is attempting to get on the change bandwagon, but his efforts are almost laughable. A McCain election will obviously mean more of the same: the continued move to the right on domestic issues, the continued abandonment of working class Americans, more confrontation with other countries including a probable war with Iran.
When I think of change instigated from above (as opposed to change from below, such as the civil rights struggle or the union movement) FDR stands out as the positive standard and Reagan the negative. President Clinton, on the other hand, didn’t really change the political paradigm. He accepted the Reagan limited government, free-market model. The status quo was maintained during his tenure.
What can we expect from Obama? After 8 years of an Obama presidency, what changes will there be? Will he be a Roosevelt or a Clinton? I have listed a number of issues below and how I see an Obama administration addressing them. It is not an exhaustive list and the comments represent only one person’s opinion. One can never predict what will happen on the political stage. Supreme Court Justices Earl Warren and Hugo Black are obvious examples.
Domestic issues
Supreme Court and reproductive rights: The status quo will be maintained primarily because it is largely out of Obama’s hands due to the fact that there is little likelihood that any of the conservative judges will resign. Obama will appoint judges who support a woman’s privacy rights, but the only replacements will likely be for liberal or centrist judges, most likely Justice Stevens. If Obama can get another judge as liberal as Stevens on the court, that will be a win, but I see a more moderate appointment.
Health care: Since every Democratic candidate has made this a core issue, there has to be some movement here to maintain even a shred of credibility. It will be a hard slog against an entrenched and well finaced opposition. I see a compromise that will benefit the health care industry as much or more than the working poor.
The economy: I have read nothing to indicate that Obama will make transformative changes in economic policy. His economic team has a decided free market slant. I expect that there will be some minimum wage increases, but it is unlikely that the 25 year growth of income disparity will reversed. NAFTA may face a few modifications, but will not be repealed or significantly altered. The movement toward free trade pacts will be lessened but not reversed.
Civil Rights: Gay rights - Minimal change. DOMA will remain the law of the land. Minority rights – mixed bag. The African-American and Latino bourgeoisie will find more opportunities and acceptance, and will face less discrimination (I anticipate less DWB occurrences for instance), but the underclass will see little change in their status.
Constitutional freedoms: No significant change here. No new laws will likely be added, but neither will the MCA or FISA be repealed or significantly altered. Minor modifications may be made to the PATRIOT Act.
War on drugs: Status quo will be maintained on this failed program. Since no politician has the courage to question the basic premise of the program or the reasons for its failure, this country will continue to incarcerate its young people at a world leading rate.
Separation of church and state: Faith based government programs will be maintained. Religious belief will continue to be a quasi-qualification when running for political office. If anything I see the line between church and state will becoming more blurred.
Education: Obama has stated that he believes that NCLB had the right intent. It didn’t. The ultimate aim was and is privatization. If the sections on privatizing are removed, NCLB won’t be renewed due to Republican opposition. Expect continued rhetoric from both sides of the aisle on our "failed" education system.
Global warming: I expect some real progress here, but I do not see the radical change in the national conversation. There should be a real increase in mileage standards, a move to fuels with a lower environmental impact, and a greater effort toward a reduction of greenhouse gases. I do not see a type of the commitment necessary to make the real life-style changes to avert the impending ecological crisis, but an Obama administration will move the country in that direction.
Foreign affairs
The occupation of Iraq: The number of troops will be significantly reduced but the occupation will not end by 2012.
The Bush Doctrine of pre-emptive wars of aggression: This illegal policy will not be rejected. The alleged "right" of the United States to invade another country will be maintained.
The Middle East and Iran: If we are lucky, we will have a lessening of tensions such as occurred during the Clinton years. If we are very lucky, Obama will actually follow through with his promise to engage all sides, including Iran and Syria, and there will be movement toward peace in the region. If we are not lucky, Obama will feel pressured to follow a "get tough" policy and things will only become more confrontational.
Guantanamo and POW rights: I may be overly optimistic, but I see Obama actually closing the Guantanamo camps. World opinion is so unfavorable that it must be closed. Unfortunately, I don’t see much backtracking on POW rights. The MCA will not be repealed nor will it be significantly modified.
International dialog and cooperation: A big improvement here, especially with our allies. I see a real attempt to repair the damage done by Bush, an effort to cooperate in areas such as global warming. Obama will most likely enter dialog with some of our adversaries, but despite our recent dismal history in the area of human rights, his team will likely lecture them and continue to promote the philosophy of American exceptionalism.
Latin American policy: I see less confrontation but no real change in basic policy. Leftist governments will still be anathemas. The pressure from Florida will prevent any change in Cuban policy. Obama will likely engage some of the more moderate left of center regimes. Corporate friendly governments will continue to be our primary allies, and human rights abuses by right wing corporate supporting regimes will continue to be overlooked and military aid will continue.
Globalization: Unfortunately, neo-liberal policies will likely continue, with the US government working with the WTO, IMF and the World Bank,meaning that corporate concerns will be given priority. The rising tide will lift the boats of those few who are fortunate enough to be in one. For the rest it will be sink or swim. Any improvement in the living standard of the poor will largely be coincidental.
In sum, I believe that an Obama presidency will halt the rightward surge in this country. Those expecting an FDR type of presidency will be disappointed. There will be a slight shift toward the center, more significant than in the Clinton years, but not enough to transform the this country’s political tilt to the right.
Various circumstances could alter this prediction:
1)An overwhelming electoral mandate for Obama which wouldgive him more freedom to break with the past.
2)Larger than expected Democratic Congressional majorities that would enable President Obama to effectively thwart Republican attempts to undermine his efforts
3)An infusion of more progressives in Congress in 2008 or 2010 which would push President Obama in a more liberal/left direction.