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Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 6/2-4. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines). * denotes incumbent.

Roberts* (R) 50
Slattery   (D) 38

Roberts is right at the 50% mark, teetering on the edge of the danger zone. Slattery trails by twelve points, an almost direct confirmation of an earlier Rasmussen poll which showed Roberts leading 52% to 40%.

I thought that Rasmussen poll was almost too good to be true, despite the twelve-point gap. Roberts is a two-term incumbent from a state that hasn't elected a Democrat to the Senate since the New Deal.

Slattery, meanwhile, has been out of politics since 1994, when he was thrashed in his race for Governor of Kansas. He has only just officially filed for the race, and started campaigning and raising money only in mid-March.

For him to be so competitive with Roberts, so quickly, in such a red state, is truly remarkable.

Meanwhile, McCain leads Obama 51% to 40%.

KANSAS POLL RESULTS - JUNE 2008

The Research 2000 Kansas Poll was conducted from June 2 through June 4, 2008. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.  

Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.

SAMPLE FIGURES:

Men                 289     (48%)              
Women               311     (52%)

Democrats           198     (33%)    
Republicans         270     (45%)    
Independents/Other  132     (22%)

18-29               114     (19%)
30-44               192     (32%)
45-59               162     (27%)
60+                 132     (22%)

District 1          148 interviews
District 2          150 interviews
District 3          151 interviews
District 4          151 interviews  


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Pat Roberts? (If favorable or unfavorable, ask if it is very or not):

                   VERY                    VERY    NO
                    FAV     FAV    UNFAV   UNFAV   OPINION  

ALL                 24%     32%     21%     19%      4%

MEN                 25%     34%     21%     18%      2%
WOMEN               23%     30%     21%     20%      6%
DEMOCRATS           11%     17%     35%     34%      3%
REPUBLICANS         35%     44%     10%      8%      3%
INDEPENDENTS        21%     30%     23%     19%      7%
18-29               21%     28%     25%     22%      4%
30-44               27%     36%     17%     16%      4%
45-59               26%     35%     18%     18%      3%
60+                 23%     30%     23%     20%      4%


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Jim Slattery? (If favorable or unfavorable, ask if it is very or not):

                   VERY                    VERY    NO
                    FAV     FAV    UNFAV   UNFAV   OPINION  

ALL                 12%     36%     22%     15%     15%

MEN                 10%     34%     24%     17%     15%
WOMEN               14%     38%     20%     13%     15%
DEMOCRATS           22%     50%     10%      6%     12%
REPUBLICANS          6%     25%     33%     24%     12%
INDEPENDENTS        10%     37%     17%     11%     25%
18-29               16%     41%     18%     11%     14%
30-44                8%     31%     26%     19%     16%
45-59                9%     33%     25%     18%     15%
60+                 15%     39%     19%     13%     14%


QUESTION: If the election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you to reelect Pat Roberts, would you consider voting for another candidate, or would you vote to replace Roberts?

                 REELECT   CONSIDER   REPLACE   NOT SURE  

ALL                 49%       24%       18%        9%

MEN                 53%       26%       14%        7%
WOMEN               45%       22%       22%       11%
DEMOCRATS           21%       23%       40%       16%
REPUBLICANS         72%       22%        4%        2%
INDEPENDENTS        45%       30%       14%       11%
18-29               45%       22%       21%       12%
30-44               53%       26%       15%        6%
45-59               52%       26%       16%        6%
60+                 46%       22%       20%       12%
                                                                                                                                             

QUESTION: If election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you vote for Jim Slattery, the Democrat, or Pat Roberts, the Republican?

                  ROBERTS  SLATTERY  UNDECIDED                              

ALL                 50%       38%       12%

MEN                 56%       34%       10%
WOMEN               44%       42%       14%
DEMOCRATS           13%       74%       13%
REPUBLICANS         78%       10%       12%
INDEPENDENTS        47%       42%       11%
18-29               46%       42%       12%
30-44               54%       34%       12%
45-59               52%       35%       13%
60+                 48%       41%       11%      
DISTRICT 1          55%       34%       11%
DISTRICT 2          46%       42%       12%
DISTRICT 3          46%       41%       13%
DISTRICT 4          53%       35%       12%


QUESTION: If the election for President were held today, would you vote for Barack Obama, the Democrat, or John McCain, the Republican?

                  MCCAIN     OBAMA     UNDECIDED

ALL                 51%       40%        9%

MEN                 56%       36%        8%
WOMEN               46%       44%       10%
DEMOCRATS           12%       78%       10%
REPUBLICANS         81%       11%        8%
INDEPENDENTS        48%       43%        9%
18-29               45%       45%       10%
30-44               55%       36%        9%
45-59               54%       37%        9%
60+                 49%       43%        8%      
DISTRICT 1          56%       35%        9%
DISTRICT 2          47%       45%        8%
DISTRICT 3          47%       44%        9%
DISTRICT 4          54%       36%       10%


QUESTION: If Barack Obama selected Kathleen Sebelius as his Vice Presidential running mate, would that you make you more or less likely to vote for Obama, or would it have no real affect on your vote?
                   MORE      LESS    NO EFFECT  

ALL                 32%       29%       39%

MEN                 28%       32%       40%
WOMEN               36%       26%       38%
DEMOCRATS           52%        8%       40%
REPUBLICANS         15%       47%       38%
INDEPENDENTS        36%       24%       40%


QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the job George W. Bush is doing as President?

                  Approve  Disapprove  Not Sure  

ALL                 37%       60%        3%

MEN                 40%       58%        2%
WOMEN               34%       62%        4%  
DEMOCRATS            8%       91%        1%
REPUBLICANS         61%       36%        3%
INDEPENDENTS        31%       62%        7%
18-29               32%       65%        3%
30-44               41%       56%        3%
45-59               40%       57%        3%
60+                 35%       63%        2%

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Thu Jun 05, 2008 at 12:10 PM PDT.

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