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Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 7/14-16. Likely voters. MoE 4% (5/12-14 results)

If 2008 election for Congress were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Ethan Berkowitz, the Democrat, and Don Young, the Republican?

Young (R) 40 (40)
Berkowitz (D) 51 (50)

If 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Mark Begich, the Democrat, and Ted Stevens, the Republican?

Stevens (R) 45 (43)
Begich (D) 47 (48)


If the election for President were held today, who would you vote for if the choices were between Barack Obama, the Democrat, and John McCain, the Republican?

McCain (R) 51 (49)
Obama (D) 41 (42)

Full cross-tabs are below the fold.

It's been two months since the last polls, but the numbers are fairly static, bobbing around well within the margin of error. Obama has lost three points, Begich has lost three points, and Berkowitz has gained one. Of course, even if it's just float within the MoE, it looks nicer when the numbers are trending in our direction. There's no doubt that this Senate race will be particularly tight.

This is a dirt-cheap state to advertise in. The cheapest, or second-cheapest, depending who you ask and how they count it, and the most efficient place to spend your money according to one of Poblano's analysis.

Note, Don Young is facing two challengers in the GOP primary (August 26), so root for the corrupt old bastard over challengers Sean Parnell and Gabrielle LeDoux, and pray that federal investigators don't swoop in with premature indictments before the primary. Be particularly glad that the anti-Young vote is being split in two. Young will need just a plurality to survive.

Democrat Ethan Berkowitz is also facing a primary against Diane Benson, the 2006 nominee. Berkowitz has so dominated the money race (with an 8-1 disparity on CoH) that I've failed to see a reason to include Benson in this polling. That may be a bad call on my part -- the most money doesn't always win. But one other data point has kept me skeptical of her chances: The Benson campaign released a poll last year taken between 10/27-11/2 that showed her trailing 29-21. There's been no subsequent polling released in the race, which doesn't necessarily mean the Benson campaign is hiding bad news (they could be trying to lull Berkowitz to sleep), but still means the only public poll on the race showed her at 21 percent with little money available to help drive those numbers up.

Still, these matchups aren't necessarily the matchups we might see post-primary day, but are the most probable. I hate late primaries.

New Mississippi numbers coming within the next two weeks.

On the web:
Orange to Blue ActBlue Page (Begich is an O2B candidate)
Mark Begich for Senate
Ethan Berkowitz for Congress
Diane Benson for Congress

Alaska Poll Results July 2008

poll conducted 14-Jul 16-Jul 2008, 600 likely voters interviewed state wide by telephone. Margin for error 4%.


Sample Figures

Men       293       49%
Women     307       51%

Dem       121       20%
Rep       186       31%
Ind       293       49%

18-29     108       18%
30-44     210       35%
45-59     192       32%
60+        90       15%

Anchorage 289       48%
Cen/oth    95       16%
Fair/Jun  216       36%


Do you have a favorable or un favorable opinion of Ethan Berkowitz?

         Very      Very      Not
         Fav       Fav       UnFav     UnFav     Sure

All       20%       32%       16%       13%       19%

Men       18%       29%       20%       15%       18%
Women     22%       35%       12%       11%       20%

Dem       37%       47%        7%        5%        4%
Rep        6%       16%       24%       21%       33%
Ind       22%       37%       14%       11%       16%

18-29     24%       37%       10%        7%       22%
30-44     17%       31%       19%       15%       18%
45-59     22%       33%       14%       12%       19%
60+       16%       27%       21%       18%       18%


Do you have a favorable or un favorable opinion of Don Young?

         Very      Very      Not
         Fav       Fav       UnFav     UnFav     Sure

All       11%       26%       36%       25%        2%

Men       13%       30%       33%       23%        1%
Women      9%       22%       39%       27%        3%

Dem        4%        7%       54%       34%        1%
Rep       19%       43%       20%       15%        3%
Ind        9%       24%       38%       27%        2%

18-29      5%       22%       42%       28%        3%
30-44     13%       29%       34%       23%        1%
45-59     10%       24%       37%       27%        2%
60+       15%       29%       32%       22%        2%


If the election for Congress were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices
were between Ethan Berkowitz, the Democrat, and Don Young, the Republican ?

       Berkowitz   Young     Undecided

All       51%       40%        9%

Men       47%       45%        8%
Women     55%       35%       10%

Dem       86%        6%        8%
Rep       18%       71%       11%
Ind       58%       34%        8%

18-29     55%       34%       11%
30-44     48%       44%        8%
45-59     53%       38%        9%
60+       47%       44%        9%

Anchorage 50%       39%       11%
Cen/oth   45%       48%        7%
Fair/Jun  56%       37%        7%


Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mark Begich?

         Very      Very      Not
         Fav       Fav       UnFav     UnFav     Sure
All       20%       32%       15%       12%       21%

Men       18%       29%       19%       14%       20%
Women     22%       35%       11%       10%       22%

Dem       33%       43%        7%        6%       11%
Rep        8%       20%       26%       20%       26%
Ind       22%       35%       11%       10%       22%

18-29     25%       36%       11%        8%       20%
30-44     18%       30%       18%       14%       20%
45-59     22%       33%       14%        9%       22%
60+       15%       27%       18%       18%       22%


Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Ted Stevens?

         Very      Very      Not
         Fav       Fav       UnFav     UnFav     Sure

All        9%       27%       35%       26%        3%

Men       11%       31%       32%       24%        2%
Women      7%       23%       38%       28%        4%

Dem        3%       13%       51%       32%        1%
Rep       18%       41%       20%       18%        3%
Ind        6%       24%       38%       28%        4%

18-29      5%       21%       41%       32%        1%
30-44     11%       30%       33%       23%        3%
45-59      7%       24%       36%       29%        4%
60+       12%       32%       31%       21%        4%


If the election for U.S. Senate were held today,  for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Mark Begich, the Democrat, and Ted Stevens, the Republican?

         Begich    Stevens   Undecided

All       47%       45%        8%

Men       43%       50%        7%
Women     51%       40%        9%

Dem       83%        7%       10%
Rep       13%       81%        6%
Ind       53%       38%        9%

18-29     53%       39%        8%
30-44     43%       47%       10%
45-59     49%       45%        6%
60+       43%       49%        8%

Anch      49%       43%        8%
Cen/oth   40%       55%        5%
Fair/Jun  48%       43%        9%


Do you approve  or disapprove of the job George W. Bush is doing as President?

         Approve   Disapprove

All       37%       63%

Men       40%       60%
Women     34%       66%

Dem        5%       95%
Rep       72%       28%
Ind       28%       72%

18-29     32%       68%
30-44     40%       60%
45-59     35%       65%
60+       41%       59%


If the election for President were held today, who would you vote for if the choices were between Barack Obama, the Democrat, and John McCain, the Republican?

         McCain    Obama     Undecided

All       51%       41%        8%

Men       54%       39%        7%
Women     48%       43%        9%

Dem       10%       86%        4%
Rep       82%        8%       10%
Ind       48%       43%        9%

18-29     42%       50%        8%
30-44     56%       34%       10%
45-59     48%       47%        5%
60+       58%       33%        9%

Anch      51%       40%        9%
Cen/Oth   56%       38%        6%
Fair/Jun  49%       43%        8%

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 09:31 AM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Alaska is in play... Amazing (9+ / 0-)

    Barack Obama -- The President we were promised as kids!

    by Jimdotz on Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 09:34:34 AM PDT

    •  It has been for months (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Jimdotz

      Pollster      Dates      N/Pop      McCain      Obama      Barr      Other      Undecided
      Rasmussen 6/16/08 500 LV 45 41 - 7 6
      Global Strategy Group (D-DSCC) 6/5-10/08 600 LV 44 42 3 - -
      Rasmussen 5/14/08 500 LV 50 41 - 4 4
      DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 5/12-14/08 600 LV 49 42 - - 9
      Rasmussen 4/7/08 500 LV 48 43 - 5 4
      SurveyUSA 2/26-29/08 617 RV 48 43 - - 9

      ...but actually winning Alaska is problematic for a variety of reasons. "Close" is probably the best we can hope for. Bush won Alaska by 27pts in 2004.

      Here we are now Entertain us I feel stupid and contagious

      by Scarce on Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 09:40:10 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  how many places can you be at once? (4+ / 0-)

    and how can I do that?

    Tasty news.

    dissent not only welcome... but encouraged

    by newfie53523 on Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 09:34:35 AM PDT

  •  Excellent News (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    polecat, Randall Sherman

    Could I be hearing the rumbles of a landslide coming?

    President Obama - start getting used to the idea. ProgressiveThought.net

    by DJ ProFusion on Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 09:35:01 AM PDT

  •  Kos, when do you find the time to post this stuff (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SallyCat, Greasy Grant

    seriously?

    How much of your day do you spend looking at polls, doing research, watching those little pixels on the screen?

    (On your MacBook Pro, of course...)

    It would drive me batsh*t insane -- well, I might be already!

    Good work.

    Happy little moron, Lucky little man.
    I wish I was a moron, MY GOD, Perhaps I am!
    -Spike Milligan

    by polecat on Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 09:35:10 AM PDT

  •  Very Nice! (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SallyCat, RethinkEverything

    Looks good.  When Alaska is going Dem, the GOP is SCREWED.

  •  Bush is polling GREAT (0+ / 0-)

    I mean, 37% is OUTSTANDING!!!

    "If the good Lord had intended for us to walk, He wouldn't have invented roller skates." - Willy Wonka

    by RethinkEverything on Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 09:41:09 AM PDT

  •  Nice meeting you the other day Markos... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SallyCat

    And thanks for the good news from Alaska.

    A United States Marine, still fighting for our Constitution and our country! I Support and Defend the Constitution against all enemies foreign and domestic.

    by DemMarineVet on Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 09:45:02 AM PDT

  •  I really think we're going to be disappointed (0+ / 0-)

    on primary night if the governor's race is any indication.

    The governor finished THIRD in his primary.  I fail to see how Young will do better.

    I honor that service, and I respect [McCain's] many accomplishments, even if he chooses to deny mine. Obama 6/3/08

    by AUBoy2007 on Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 09:45:24 AM PDT

    •  That's what I worry about (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      AUBoy2007

      The House seat is probably out of reach if the GOP nominates not-Young. Still, I care much more about the Senate seat, and so far as I'm aware, Stevens isn't facing a primary challenge...it'll be tight either way, but Alaska is certainly a pickup we have to make if we want to be flirting with 60.

  •  Well those are very, very interesting! (0+ / 0-)

    I like that Congress is good, Sen could be better but it is early yet. Not sure what I think about the Pres numbers...but we're not getting blown out up there either.

    Enjoy TX and kick some butt down there for us back on the blogs!

    Anyone who has the power to make you believe absurdities has the power to make you commit injustices. Voltaire 1694-1778

    by SallyCat on Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 09:47:39 AM PDT

  •  AK is like NC (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    skywaker9, polecat, Greasy Grant

    I think the Obama campaign, if they have enough cash, will contest these two states to the bitter end if only because of the downticket races in both states.

  •  It's a pity Diane Benson isn't doing better. (0+ / 0-)

    She looks to be an interesting candidate, from the look of her bio. Anybody from Alaska on this thread? Can you fill us in as to what happened to her son? Her website mentions he was recovering at Walter Reed Hospital so I'm assuming he was in Iraq or Afghanistan? I'm halfway tempted to donate, particularly after I saw that all of her contributions came from private donors, not one single PAC unlike her primary opponent who raised nearly $40,000 through PAC's.

    An indigenous woman, worked for a union driving cement trucks while raising her son? God God. What a fantastic  life story she has and her real world experience is also fascinating. Why isn't she doing better with the voters?

    Just because your voice reaches halfway around the world doesn't mean you are wiser than when it reached only to the end of the bar. Edward R. Murrow

    by Pager on Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 09:54:55 AM PDT

    •  Ah, I found it. (0+ / 0-)

      I should have read her bio all the way through.

      Diane is the mother of Sgt Latseen Benson who served in the Iraq war until he was severely wounded by a road-side bomb. The months she spent at Walter Reed Army Medical with her son and visiting with other injured troops in Washington, D.C. motivated her to run for Congressional office.

      Just because your voice reaches halfway around the world doesn't mean you are wiser than when it reached only to the end of the bar. Edward R. Murrow

      by Pager on Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 09:57:11 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Having never been to Alaska, (0+ / 0-)

    what % of the population is African American? How does the Native American population stand on the issues? Can you give some insights into the racial/ethnic complexities?
    We need some strong advertising to show how voting GOP is NOT in anybody's best interest.  

    "Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." - JFK

    by moose67 on Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 09:57:05 AM PDT

    •  African American population in AK (0+ / 0-)

      is quite small. Not sure the numbers but definitely higher in military base towns,i.e., Anchorage, Fairbanks.

      The Native population is around 13%. In 1930 the Native population was 51% of the state! There is strong historical support for Don Young and Ted Stevens in the Bush. They have both brought home the "bacon" that has helped "modernize" village life. Also, Young's wife is an Athabascan from Ft. Yukon.

      The great tragedy of Science, the slaying of a beautiful hypothesis by an ugly fact. T. H. Huxley

      by realalaskan on Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 01:00:04 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Obama needs to go to Alaska! (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    nadeane, unertl

    Doing a few days up there would be very helpful.

  •  test (0+ / 0-)

    Here we are now Entertain us I feel stupid and contagious

    by Scarce on Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 10:05:06 AM PDT

  •  Hardly critical, but... (0+ / 0-)

    "...for whom would you vote for..."?

    Really?  I mean doesn't anybody edit this stuff before they call making 600 phone calls?

    Additionally, who speaks like this?  I wouldn't scoff if someone told me that there was research to show that pollers whose questions are phrased "for whom" get Obama-biased results and pollers whose questions use "y'all" get McCain-biased results.

  •  LeDoux must have a lot of money (0+ / 0-)

    I saw her ad on "The Filipino Channel" a few nights ago (which would have made it a nation cable buy). That was a lor of money wasted.

    "You know, God bless him, bless his heart, president of the United States, a total failure."

    by RandySF on Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 10:16:57 AM PDT

  •  Should we donate to the Alaska Democratic Party? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    skywaker9, nadeane

    How good is their organization?

    "You know, God bless him, bless his heart, president of the United States, a total failure."

    by RandySF on Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 10:18:04 AM PDT

  •  I know this has nothing to do with these polls... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    skywaker9

    But is there anyone else out there who LOATHES Frank Luntz as much as I do?  I just heard him on the Radio saying like the Republican Slob he is..."He (Obama)better not mess up over there....we are all watching".  You fat slob...since when did McCain never make a mistake -- OVER THERE??  I was so damn mad over that statement on Air America News I almost got in accident coming back from lunch today.

    Now, that I feel better...thanks for those poll numbers KOS.

  •  I've never understood... (0+ / 0-)

    ...how the state (Alaska) full of drifters, rejects, adventurers, free spirits & ancestors of gold rush mavericks can be so Republican.

    I would think Alaska would be a bastion of liberalism & progressivism.

    Isn't is legal to grow pot in your home in Alaska?

    But everybody is acting happy Obama is down only by 10 in Alaska (I realize the down tickets races look great & are cause for cautious optimism).

    Anyway, I've never understood Alaska's politically conservative slant.

    Maybe somebody from Alaska can explain it to me.

    •  It's not legal to grow pot (0+ / 0-)

      Anywhere in the United States, except for research purposes. There appears to be a personal privacy doctrine subscribed to by Alaska courts that has protected the possession of small amounts of marijuana for use in the home, but state lawmakers have repeatedly attempted to recriminalize such possession. It's largely symbolic in any event; if the DEA shows up at your door, they won't care what state courts have to say about your personal privacy rights, because marijuana is a Schedule I banned drug under the federal Controlled Substances Act.

      •  Possessing 1 ounce of pot... (0+ / 0-)

        ..or less in your home is legal in Alaska.

        Possession of one ounce or less of marijuana in the privacy of the home is legal.

        http://norml.org/...

        That's a pretty liberal ganja policy for a state that likes to vote for Republicans.

        •  Right, because of the courts (0+ / 0-)

          Alaska elected officials have been busily working to get that reversed, thus far with no success. So I think it's a mistake to conclude that this necessarily represents the will of the supposedly free-spirited Alaska voters. (Alaska Supreme Court Justices are appointed by the governor and subject to retention elections every 10 years, but such mechanisms are notoriously weak forms of popular accountability, and it is very difficult to unseat a sitting appellate judge except with a high-profile, well-organized campaign, such as the one that got Rose Bird ousted from the California Supreme Court in 1987.)

          And, as I said, it doesn't really matter much what Alaska says about this via any arm of its state policymaking apparatus in any event. The federal government has criminalized the possession of marijuana, meaning that even if you're in a state with (symbolically) liberal pot laws, you can still be arrested and punished by federal officials for possession, cultivation, or distribution of marijuana.

    •  It used to be (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      nadeane

      I would think Alaska would be a bastion of liberalism & progressivism.

      The pipeline changed everything.

      Rome is burning ... put down the fiddle.

      by ancblu on Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 11:22:32 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  RE: Ted Stevens (0+ / 0-)

    Can we send him and his Series Of Tubes packing?

    "I can't believe it, but people are strange. Our President's crazy. Did you hear what he said?" - David Byrne

    by Rob Dapore on Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 10:24:21 AM PDT

  •  Some voter registration numbers for Alaska (0+ / 0-)

    As of June 3, 2008, there were 72,076 registered Dems, 119,315 registered Reps, and 178,876 registered Independents.  As of July 7, 2008, there are 72,667 registered Dems, 119,813 registered Reps, and 180,019 registered Independents.  That means that voter registration basically flatlined in Alaska through the month of May with Dems only netting 600 more voters, Reps gaining 500 more voters, but with Independents netting 1,500 more voters.

    If Obama is to win Alaska he is going to need to win Independents.  In this poll he is down by 5% among Independents, but with nearly 10% undecided (and of course the margin of error in all polls) he has a shot of winning this group.  Admittedly he would need to win them by close to 10% points to offset the Republican edge in registered voters in Alaska, but perhaps apathy amongst those voters may be a boon to Obama.  Nonetheless, he needs to win Independents to have a chance.

  •  Benson vs. Berkowitz? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ancblu

    I met Diane Benson and was extremely impressed.

    I'll have to read up on Ethan Berkowitz.

    Good thing that elections aren't the only thing...as David Sirota's new book explains, there's also the need to build Progressive institutions:
    http://www.ourfuture.org/...

    Best Diary of the Year? http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/2/23/03912/3990

    by LNK on Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 10:35:54 AM PDT

  •  At the risk of sounding sexist (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    gogol

    This picture of Dianne Benson makes her look incredibly hot, rig and all.

    "You know, God bless him, bless his heart, president of the United States, a total failure."

    by RandySF on Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 10:42:52 AM PDT

  •  Alaska voter registration figures (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    gogol, ancblu, unertl

    As of July 7th (figures here):

    TOTAL: 476,472

    Democrats: 72,667 (15.25%)
    Republicans: 119,813 (25.15%)
    Undeclared+Nonpartisan: 253,601 (53.22%)
    Alaskan Independence Party: 13,532 (2.84%)
    Libertarian Party: 7,356 (1.54%)
    Green Party: 3,042 (0.64%)
    Republican Moderate Party: 4,330 (0.91%)
    Veterans Party of Alaska: 2,131 (0.45%)

    So the likely voter model in this poll oversampled both Democrats and Republicans (Republicans by 1% more than Democrats), undersampled Independents by 4%, and ignored minor parties (or else folded them into the "Independent" category, in which case that category was undersampled by a lot).

    Now, these figures may be accurate, and Democrats and Republicans are both more likely to vote in November than Independents - but they are off from the registered voter numbers by a fair amount.

  •  Markos -- thanks mucho for giving recognition (0+ / 0-)

    to Diane Benson.  Here in AK we progressives feel she deserves a lot of respect, even if she is outgunned this cycle. She is certainly of and for the people, and is in a primary contest with another great candidate who will in all liklihood prevail.  Kudos to her, and to you for adding her name into the commentary.

    Rome is burning ... put down the fiddle.

    by ancblu on Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 11:17:45 AM PDT

  •  Irony (0+ / 0-)

    Alaska and Hawai'i were admitted to the union as a "pair", albeit one year apart.  The received wisdom then was that Alaska would be firmly Democratic and Hawai'i would be firmly Republican.  (Rememer Senator Hiram Fong?)  Now, the two have flipped.

  •  When Is the Last Time a Presidential (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    because, nadeane

    candidate physically went to Alaska to campaign>

    Never.  Right?

    If Obama wants to garner a lead over McCain, all he need do is hop on a jet and make a 3-day tour of the state.  The Republicans, in their arrogance, aren't even going to bother.

    You want to play 50 state strategy?  Then go to Alaska and give them a "charge."

    They burn our children in their wars and grow rich beyond the dreams of avarice.

    by Limelite on Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 01:16:42 PM PDT

  •  Any data on Berkowitz / Parnell? (0+ / 0-)

    Just wondering what happens if the Rs do something unexpected and dump Young in the primary. It would be good to have a "just in case" baseline.

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