House and Senate Roundup, 7/23
by brownsox
Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 02:30:16 PM PDT
CO-Sen: After a series of polls showing Democrat Mark Udall with a 9-10 point lead over Republican Bob Schaffer, here's the first one in a while showing a closer race. From Rasmussen:
Udall (D) 47 (49)
Schaffer (R) 43 (40)
Udall isn't likely to win by 12-15 points, or anything like that. Despite myriad missteps and scandals from Schaffer, and despite a solid campaign for Udall so far, this race is far from over. Nevertheless, the edge is Udall's, and has been since the race began.
NC-Sen: Elizabeth Dole's rather shocking attempt to get the high-profile AIDS relief bill named after her predecessor, the late Sen. Jesse Helms, has gone up in smoke.
Sen. Elizabeth Dole, R-N.C., introduced an amendment to add Helms, the N.C. Republican who died July 4, to the title of a $48billion bill passed Wednesday in the Senate that triples spending for a much-acclaimed program that has treated and protected millions in Africa and elsewhere from the scourges of AIDS, malaria and tuberculosis.
Her measure, though, didn't get a vote. The legislation was already named after two other lawmakers who fought against the spread of AIDS, former Reps. Henry Hyde, R-Ill., and Tom Lantos, D-Calif.
Dole's amendment came as a surprise, of course, because Helms spent a good bit of his life attacking AIDS victims:
Helms changed his view on foreign relief programs late in his Senate career, and teamed up with rock star Bono to help suffering populations overseas.
What many critics won't soon forget are Helms' comments like this one about people with AIDS in his own country: "There is not one single case of AIDS in this country that cannot be traced in origin to sodomy."
This, too:
Dole's amendment, quietly introduced Monday, was first reported Wednesday by the Huffington Post. The news quickly spread on the blogosphere, where there was a proliferation of Helms quotes – such as 1995 comments to The New York Times, which quoted him as saying people got AIDS because of "deliberate, disgusting, revolting conduct."
Dole's legislative career in the Senate has been underwhelming by any analysis. And if a failed amendment to get an AIDS relief bill named after the most controversial politician in North Carolina's recent history is her best attempt at padding her resume, it may be time to consider someone else.
NH-Sen: Plenty of movement in the Jeanne Shaheen - John Sununu race. Two polls out, both from pollsters of questionable reliability. From ARG:
Shaheen (D) 58
Sununu (R) 36
Too good to be true, right? So witness UNH:
Shaheen (D) 46
Sununu (R) 42
Too bad to be true? It is. MissLaura has a healthy dose of skepticism about the partisan samples used in the UNH polling, which she articulates at Blue Hampshire. The UNH poll, FWIW, showed Paul Hodes losing by 20-25 points, in late 2006.
Gazing at these polls, CQ Politics shakes their head, shrugs their shoulders, and moves the race to "Leans Democratic".
MS-Sen: For a race widely considered a tossup, or leaning ever so slightly Republican, Mississippi's Senate race has been relatively quiet. But Mississippi remains one of the closest Senate races in the country in polling, and Barack Obama's campaign apparently intends to seriously contest the state, expecting to increase the black vote in Mississippi by over 30%.
The Politico has an excellent article noting that even if this does not turn Mississippi to Obama, it could win the election for Musgrove.
It is possible for a Mississippi Democrat to win in a statewide election, but it would likely require 30 percent of the white vote along with nearly the entire black vote. In 2003, Musgrove lost his reelection bid for governor to current Gov. Haley Barbour, a Republican. Musgrave took about 22 percent of the white vote, and lost the election 53 percent to 46 percent. In 1999, when Musgrove beat Republican gubernatorial nominee Mike Parker in one of the closest races in Mississippi history, he performed even better among white voters, running well ahead of typical Democratic performance in Northeast Mississippi, a Republican stronghold.
The formula that has sometimes worked for Mississippi Democrats is directly at odds with Obama’s strategy for putting Southern states in play. Obama and his aides have made the case that Obama could increase black turnout so substantially — by 30 percent or more — that Southern states with large African-American populations would become competitive even without much of a change in the white turnout. But the math here is much harder than the Obama campaign asserts. If you take the 2004 presidential election results, increase the black vote by 30 percent and assume that the white vote stays the same, Obama would still lose Mississippi by more than 100,000 votes. And most analysts think that a 30 percent increase in the black vote is extremely optimistic. Obama will surely draw African-Americans to the polls in record numbers, but even a 10 percent to 15 percent increase in African-American votes would be historic. Add to that Obama’s problems in attracting white Mississippi voters even in the Democratic primary, where he attracted only a quarter of white Democrats.
What Musgrove hopes is that he can have the best of both worlds. He can run as a more conservative Democrat picking up moderate white voters, just as Travis Childers did in the House special election to replace Roger Wicker. But Musgrove might also benefit from Obama energizing and turning out the black vote even while Musgrove keeps his distance from the presidential nominee.
Musgrove is running even in the polls with incumbent Republican Roger Wicker, so even a small increase in the black vote in Mississippi would be a tremendous boon to Musgrove's campaign.
House Races
AK-AL: Kos wrote last night on the burgeoning scandal surrounding Alaska Governor Sarah Palin.
Long story short, Palin apparently had a personal vendetta against a state trooper (and her former brother-in-law), Mike Wooten,who had been embroiled in a nasty divorce from Palin's sister. Over 25 investigations and complaints were filed against him in an attempt to get him fired. All were dismissed save one, which was deemed not serious enough to sack him.
Allegedly, Palin subsequently pressured public safety commissioner Walt Monegan to fire the brother-in-law. Monegan didn't, and was subsequently fired himself.
Finally, Monegan's replacement, Chuck Kopp, is highly controversial in his own right, having previously been charged with sexual harassment by an employee.
Palin is not up for reelection until 2010, but her lieutenant governor Sean Parnell represents the biggest threat to a Democratic pickup in the House race. Parnell's main claim to fame is his association with the formerly universally popular Governor, and this scandal may sink him. From Kos:
Parnell has tied his entire campaign thus far to Sarah Palin, using her popularity to boost his efforts. Today, word is that Parnell has pulled all ads with references to Palin. Her brand is mud.
Yet without her, Parnell isn't shit either. He's dead in the water. (Don) Young will win his primary in several weeks, and prove easy pickings for the Democratic nominee.
Meanwhile, Palin was considered the fallback candidate in case Stevens got indicted. She no longer looks so hot. Nor can she be an asset for Stevens, Young, or any other Republican up and down the ballot in her state. Alaska's most popular Republican has essentially been neutralized. The "popular Republican" is now extinct in Alaska.
This could indeed kill Parnell's campaign, or seriously damage it. Parnell was Palin's golden boy; Palin's good name is his good name.
ID-01: Bill "Absolute Idiot" Sali has screwed up yet again. This time, he is one full week late in filing his FEC reports. His campaign claims technical difficulties:
I am unable to file the 2nd quarter 2008 FEC report, as FEC technical support is still attempting to fix the Sali for Congress data file. I first attempted to upload a file to the FEC site on June 6. I again tried on June 9, using the new FEC software update, without success. I then sent FEC technical support a copy of the Sali for Congress FEC file. FEC technical support is still attempting to fix the file so that it may be uploaded. I am in regular contact with FEC technical support and the FEC analyst, in an effort to resolve this matter.
Thing is, that was a full week ago. The response from Democrat Walt Minnick's campaign:
"Frankly it is outrageous that he has not filed this report, the people of Idaho deserve to know who his campaign contributors are. And for him to think that he can get away from not filing his federally mandated financial disclosure to the American people and Idahoan is really outrageous," said Foster.
AZ-03: The Arizona Democratic Party has a new ad opposing John Shadegg, on behalf of Orange to Blue candidate Bob Lord:
TX-10: Democratic candidate (and Netroots Nation attendee) Larry Joe Doherty now sports the endorsements of the NEA, the Texas State Teachers' Association, and the national and state branches of the American Federation of Teachers. From a press release:
With membership of more than 4.6 million educators nationwide, these four front-line organizations represent the teachers who are working hard in our classrooms everyday. In fact, in 2007, McCaul received an 'F' rating from the NEA due to his lack of support for 'quality public education.'
"Larry Joe Doherty will take the fight to Washington on behalf of our educators, students and schools," said Louis Malfaro, President of Education Austin. "We are proud to support a candidate who understands that a strong commitment to our public education system is the key to long-term economic health for Texas kids, families, and businesses."
Doherty is committed to working with these organizations to fix No Child Left Behind (NCLB). Republican incumbent Michael McCaul has voted to strip $806 billion in vital funding from the program (HR 3010, 6/24/05, Vote #321).
"I will be a dependable voice for our nation's teachers and students instead of a rubber stamp for a party whose policies are out of touch with the American people," said Doherty.
LA-07: Democratic candidate Don Cravins, Jr., was just added to the DCCC's Emerging Races list:
"In the short time that Don Cravins has been in the race, he's put together a solid campaign and shown that he is committed to making things easier for middle class families in Southwest Louisiana," said DCCC Chairman Chris Van Hollen.
Cravins is the 21st candidate named to the DCCC's Emerging Races program. In each of these races, Democratic candidates have generated excitement in their districts for their campaigns for change. As these campaigns continue to develop and demonstrate increasing strength, candidates will have an opportunity to qualify for the DCCC's Red to Blue program.
SD-AL: Congratulations to Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin and former Rep. Max Sandlin, who are expecting their first child together in December.
On the web:
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