Skip to main content

I'm starting to believe in the bounce.

Political Wire reports that Research 2000 gives Obama a lead of 51%-39%, with Bob Barr at 3% and Nader at 2%.

I always thought that the overseas trip was a good long-term strategy, but I doubted how much it would mean in the short run.  Not anymore.

Here is the Research 2000 site.

Which does not have the poll up at this time.

Polling Report also cites this poll and gives internals for the curious.

This seems to be their first national poll of the season (I searched the usual places and couldn't find another) so there isn't an indication of trend for this one pollster, but this can't help but be good news.

For those who don't know, Nate Silver at Five Thirty Eight rates the pollsters by comparing their predictions to the actual results of the state primaries.  Research 2000 comes out well in this analysis, at 1.73 compared to Survey USA at 1.02 (lower is better), Rasmussen at 1.30, Quinnipiac at 1.75, and "average" at 1.97.  If you're keeping score at home, Zogby's interactive poll is not ready for prime time at 5.73.

Believe in the change we can make happen and keep working like we're 10 points down.

Originally posted to Actuary4Change on Sun Jul 27, 2008 at 08:11 PM PDT.

Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags


More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site