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I'm starting to believe in the bounce.

Political Wire reports that Research 2000 gives Obama a lead of 51%-39%, with Bob Barr at 3% and Nader at 2%.

I always thought that the overseas trip was a good long-term strategy, but I doubted how much it would mean in the short run.  Not anymore.

Here is the Research 2000 site.

Which does not have the poll up at this time.

Polling Report also cites this poll and gives internals for the curious.

This seems to be their first national poll of the season (I searched the usual places and couldn't find another) so there isn't an indication of trend for this one pollster, but this can't help but be good news.

For those who don't know, Nate Silver at Five Thirty Eight rates the pollsters by comparing their predictions to the actual results of the state primaries.  Research 2000 comes out well in this analysis, at 1.73 compared to Survey USA at 1.02 (lower is better), Rasmussen at 1.30, Quinnipiac at 1.75, and "average" at 1.97.  If you're keeping score at home, Zogby's interactive poll is not ready for prime time at 5.73.

Believe in the change we can make happen and keep working like we're 10 points down.

Originally posted to Actuary4Change on Sun Jul 27, 2008 at 08:11 PM PDT.

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