ID-Sen: Shockingly close
Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 09:48:37 AM PDT
I ran into Larry LaRocco at Netroots Nation in Austin, and after some back-and-forth banter about his race, he dared me to poll the race, claiming it would be within 10 points. I didn't believe him, but on a whim, I commissioned the poll anyway. The results:
Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 7/28-30. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (No trend lines)
Risch (R) 42
LaRocco (D) 32
Rammell (I) 5
Undecided 17
Damn. It's 10 points. Now LaRocco has a long way to go, but with wealthy über-wingnut Rex Rammell in the race, he doesn't need to get to 50 percent (which would be a tall order indeed). With essentially two well-funded Republicans in the race, LaRocco appears to have a real chance to slip in with a plurality of the vote.
LaRocco has a 43/22 favorable/unfavorable rating, with 35 percent not knowing who he is. Republican Jim Risch is at 45/26, with 29 percent unfamiliar with him. LaRocco is narrowly winning independents 38-35 with 16 percent undecided, while Republicans are really torn -- 21 percent undecided, probably agonizing over voting for Risch (who few seem to like in his party) or their soul mate Rammell. Right now, Risch gets only 64 percent of Republicans.
Given those numbers, and with 17 percent of all respondents undecided, this race is shockingly wide open.
Want to know how Obama does in Idaho? Of course you do.
McCain (R) 53
Obama (D) 37
A 16-point deficit seems ugly until you consider that Bush defeated Kerry 69-30 in the state in 2004. This was one of my top pro-Obama arguments in the primary. LaRocco would have little hope of overcoming a 39-point deficit at the top of the ticket. But 16 or even 20 or 25? Not easy, but easier. By running tighter, Obama makes it easier for down-ticket Democrats to win.
Full crosstabs below the fold.
On the web: Larry LaRocco for Senate
Idaho Poll Results July 2008
Poll conducted July 28-30, 2008.
500 likely voters interviewed state wide by telephone
Margin for error 4.5%
Sample Figures
Men 245 49%
Women 255 51%
Dem 115 23%
Rep 240 48%
Ind 145 29%
18-29 105 21%
30-44 146 29%
45-59 139 28%
60+ 110 22%
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Larry LaRocco?
Very Very Not
Fav Fav UnFav UnFav Sure
All 16% 27% 13% 9% 35%
Men 14% 24% 16% 12% 34%
Women 18% 30% 10% 6% 36%
Dem 33% 46% 7% 4% 10%
Rep 7% 16% 17% 13% 47%
Ind 17% 31% 11% 7% 34%
18-29 19% 30% 10% 6% 35%
30-44 14% 25% 15% 11% 35%
45-59 17% 27% 12% 8% 36%
60+ 15% 26% 14% 11% 34%
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Jim Risch?
Very Very Not
Fav Fav UnFav UnFav Sure
All 18% 27% 17% 9% 29%
Men 20% 29% 16% 8% 27%
Women 16% 25% 18% 10% 31%
Dem 6% 13% 34% 16% 31%
Rep 27% 36% 8% 6% 23%
Ind 14% 24% 19% 9% 34%
18-29 15% 24% 20% 11% 30%
30-44 21% 30% 14% 7% 28%
45-59 17% 26% 18% 10% 29%
60+ 19% 28% 16% 8% 29%
If the election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Larry LaRocco, the Democrat, Jim Risch, the Republican or Rex Rammell, an Indep ent?
Risch LaRocco Rammell Other Undecided
All 42% 32% 5% 4% 17%
Men 45% 28% 6% 5% 16%
Women 39% 36% 4% 3% 18%
Dem 5% 81% 2% 2% 10%
Rep 64% 5% 7% 3% 21%
Ind 35% 38% 4% 7% 16%
18-29 38% 35% 4% 3% 20%
30-44 46% 29% 4% 3% 18%
45-59 41% 34% 6% 5% 14%
60+ 43% 31% 6% 5% 15%
Do you approve or disapprove of the job George W. Bush is doing as President?
Approve Disapprove Not Sure
All 43% 56% 1%
Men 46% 53% 1%
Women 40% 59% 1%
Dem 7% 93%
Rep 63% 35% 2%
Ind 38% 61% 1%
18-29 39% 60% 1%
30-44 46% 53% 1%
45-59 43% 56% 1%
60+ 44% 56%
If the election for President were held today, who would you vote for if the choices were between Barack Obama, the Democrat, and John McCain, the Republican?
McCain Obama Undecided
All 53% 37% 10%
Men 56% 35% 9%
Women 50% 39% 11%
Dem 9% 85% 6%
Rep 79% 7% 14%
Ind 44% 48% 8%
18-29 49% 40% 11%
30-44 57% 34% 9%
45-59 51% 38% 11%
60+ 55% 36% 9%
