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Research 2000 for Daily Kos. July 28-30. Likely voters. MoE 4% (4/28-30 results)

Dole (R) 50 (48)
Hagan (D) 42 (41)

Not much change, with Dole right at that 50 percent mark considered "safe", though I doubt anyone really thinks Dole can just slack off.

There are several races in which Obama's strength will have a say in the outcome of the Senate race, and this is certainly one of them, so let's see how he does:

McCain (R) 47 (50)
Obama (D) 43 (41)

Yeah, this one is a tossup. And it's likely even better than this. According to the 2004 exit polls African Americans made up 26 percent of the North Carolina electorate. The sample size of this poll is 22 percent black, and does anyone think black turnout will be down this year? Didn't think so...

So all things considered, these are pretty darn good numbers. You Tarheelers are going to be really busy this year.

On the web:
Kay Hagan for Senate

North Carolina Poll July 2008

From July 28 -30, 2008.
600 likely voters
Margin of error  is 4%


Sample Figures:

Men       286       48%
Women     314       52%

Dem       264       44%
Rep       216       36%
Ind       120       20%

18-29     108       18%
30-44     198       33%
45-59     180       30%
60+       114       19%

White     426       71%
Black     132       22%
Other      42        7%


Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of  Kay Hagan ?

         Very                Very                No
         Fav       Fav       Unfav     Unfav     Opinion

All       14%       37%       21%       11%       17%

Men       12%       34%       25%       13%       16%
Women     16%       40%       17%        9%       18%

Dem       20%       51%       11%        6%       12%
Rep        7%       20%       35%       19%       19%
Ind       14%       37%       19%        7%       23%

18-29     16%       41%       17%        7%       19%
30-44     13%       35%       24%       15%       13%
45-59     13%       36%       22%       11%       18%
60+       14%       36%       21%       11%       18%


Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of  Elizabeth Dole?

         Very                Very                No
         Fav       Fav       Unfav     Unfav     Opinion

All       19%       34%       21%       17%        9%

Men       21%       38%       18%       15%        8%
Women     17%       30%       24%       19%       10%

Dem       10%       22%       33%       28%        7%
Rep       31%       48%       10%        6%        5%
Ind       17%       35%       15%       14%       19%

18-29     15%       30%       25%       20%       10%
30-44     22%       37%       17%       15%        9%
45-59     21%       36%       19%       16%        8%
60+       18%       32%       23%       18%        9%

If the election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you vote for Kay Hagan the Democrat,  or Elizabeth Dole the Republican ?

         Dole      Hagan     Undecided

All       50%       42%        8%

Men       54%       39%        7%
Women     46%       45%        9%

Dem       18%       71%       11%
Rep       89%        8%        3%
Ind       50%       39%       11%

White     68%       27%        5%
Black      7%       81%       12%
Other      8%       71%       21%

18-29     43%       49%        8%
30-44     54%       39%        7%
45-59     53%       40%        7%
60+       50%       40%       10%

Ral/Dur   46%       47%        7%
Charlotte 49%       40%       11%
Green/WS  53%       38%        9%


Do you approve or disapprove of the  job George W. Bush is doing as  President?

         Approve   Disapprove

All       36%       64%

Men       40%       60%
Women     34%       66%

Dem        7%       93%
Rep       73%       27%
Ind       34%       66%

18-29     30%       70%
30-44     39%       61%
45-59     38%       62%
60+       37%       63%


If the election for President were held today, who would you vote for if the choices were between Barack Obama, the Democrat, or John McCain, the Republican ?

         McCain    Obama     Undecided

All       47%       43%       10%

Men       52%       39%        9%
Women     42%       47%       11%

Dem       16%       77%        7%
Rep       85%        6%        9%
Ind       47%       35%       18%

White     64%       26%       10%
Black      5%       89%        6%
Other      7%       72%       21%

18-29     39%       54%        7%
30-44     51%       39%       10%
45-59     49%       41%       10%
60+       49%       38%       13%

Ral/Dur   42%       48%       10%
Charlotte 51%       38%       11%
Green/WS  52%       38%       10%

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Fri Aug 01, 2008 at 08:50 AM PDT.

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