Status of the Electoral College: August 5

Here is the map for August 5th. Notes are below (click map for bigger version):

Methodology

Numbers:

• Official count: Obama 243, McCain 154, Too Close to Call 141
• Strong states only: Obama 190, McCain 97
• Weak states only: McCain 57, Obama 53
• Count with "leaners": Obama 314, McCain 224

• Weeks until the Democratic Convention: 3 weeks
• Weeks until the Republican Convention: 4 weeks
• Weeks until Election Day: 13 weeks

All states with change of status:

• Arizona - Weak McCain to Strong McCain
• Mississippi - Weak McCain to Strong McCain

All states with new polling this week:

• Alabama - new poll July 31st
• Arizona - new polls July 30th & July 30th-31st
• California - new poll July 8th-22nd
• Connecticut - new poll July 31st
• Florida - new poll July 20th-28th, July 23rd-29th, August 1st-3rd
• Idaho - new poll July 28th-30th
• Kentucky - new polls July 29th & July 28th-30th
• Massachusetts - new poll August 3rd
• Michigan - new poll July 23rd-27th
• Mississippi - new poll July 28th
• Missouri - new poll July 29th-31st
• Montana - new poll July 29th
• Nebraska - new poll July 28th
• North Carolina - new polls July 23rd-27th & July 28th-30th
• Ohio - new poll July 23rd-29th
• Pennsylvania - new polls July 25th-27th & July 23rd-29th
• Texas - new poll July 30th
• Washington - new poll July 25th-27th

Also, see the spreadsheet.

This Week's Notes

This week was pretty much a "keep the status quo" week, despite having 18 states polled, including 6 "Too Close To Call" states.

Movement towards McCain's side was restricted to two of his strongest "weak" states - Mississippi and Arizona - moving up into the "Strong McCain" category.   This did not change McCain's overall total, but did increase McCain's "strong" state total to 97, the highest it's been since June 24th when the his "strong" total was last over 100.   McCain's "weak" total sits at 57, the lowest thus far, showing that McCain seems to be consolidating his strength in states that lean more towards him, restricting the battleground states to current battle grounds.

Obama didn't have any movement in the official count, but Ohio did slide back over to Obama's "lean" category, increasing his margin in the count with leaders to 314 to 224, ending his one week stint with under 300 electoral votes.  This is the highest total with leaners Obama has had since July 8th.

As I alluded to with McCain, this race appears to be increasingly paring down "mid-level" states as you will, with more and more states either going into either the "Too Close To Call" category or sliding into the respective candidate's "strong" categories.  We now only have a total of 110 "weak" electoral votes - 57 for McCain, more than half of which are in the state of Texas, and 51 for Obama, 40% of which are in the state of Pennsylvania.  There is now a grand total of only 10 states remaining in both candidate's "weak" categories, as compared to 27 states + DC in their "strong" categories and 13 states in the "Too Close To Call" category.

Overall, Obama still has the edge.  As I mentioned above, the candidates are nearly tied in "weak" EVs, with McCain having 57 and Obama having 53.  They are also nearly even in "lean" EVs, with McCain having 70 and Obama 71.  Where the difference is "strong" EVs, where Obama still leads McCain 190 to 97.

One possible warning sign for Obama is that more of his lean states are within 1% than McCain's, with Obama having 36 Electoral votes within 1% while McCain only has 11.  However, even if all of those states switched to McCain, Obama would still have the lead.

Currently the state on the bubble, the state at which, if Obama wins that state and all states stronger to him, he wins, and if McCain wins that state and all states stronger for him than that, he wins, is Colorado, which currently sits at +2% for Obama.  Such a win would be without Ohio, Virginia, or Florida for Obama.

Historical Graph

Click for bigger version:

As you can see, not much to talk about as all three numbers remained static.  Which direction they move next might determine where this race goes in the future.  Has Obama finished dropping, or is this just a lull before further McCain gains?

Polling Wish List

Finally, my polling wish list for this week is:

• Delaware (5th week) - Weak Obama, no poll for 158 days
• Indiana (3rd week) - Too Close To Call, no poll for 43 days
• South Dakota - Too Close to Call, no poll for 27 days
• West Virginia (3rd week) - Weak McCain, no poll for 63 days
• Wyoming - Strong McCain, no poll for 83 days

On Deck: Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Oklahoma, Tennessee

States which haven't had a new poll in over a month:

DC, Delaware, Hawaii, Indiana, Maryland, New York, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Utah, Vermont, West Virginia, Wyoming.

Sister states

These are states for each candidate where the margin in those states are within 1% of each other and are within 3 total electoral votes or 33% of electoral votes of the smaller state of each other.

• Virginia (Obama, 13 EVs, +0.4%) and Indiana (McCain, 11 EVs, +0.8%)
• New Hampshire (Obama, 4 EVs, +3.3%) and North Dakota (McCain, 3 EVs, +2.3%)
• New Hampshire (Obama, 4 EVs, +3.3%) and South Dakota (McCain, 3 EVs, +4.2%)
• Michigan (Obama, 17 EVs, +3.7%) and North Carolina (McCain, 15 EVs, +3.7%)
• Oregon (Obama, 7 EVs, +8.4%) and West Virginia (McCain, 5 EVs, +8.1%)
• Iowa (Obama, 7 EVs, +8.8%) and West Virginia (McCain, 5 EVs, +8.1%)
• Delaware (Obama, 3 EVs, +9%) and West Virginia (McCain, 5 EVs, +8.1%)
• Wisconsin (Obama 10 EVs, +10.4%) and South Carolina (McCain, 8 EVs, +10.9%)
• Maine (Obama, 4 EVs, +11.1%) and Mississippi (McCain, 6 EVs, +10.4%)
• Maine (Obama, 4 EVs, +11.1%) and Arkansas (McCain, 6 EVs, +10.5%)
• Connecticut (Obama, 7 EVs, +14.4%) and Oklahoma (McCain, 7 EVs, +14.8%)
• Connecticut (Obama, 7 EVs, +14.4%) and Kentucky (McCain, 8 EVs, +15.4%)

Electoral-vote.com Map

August 5, 2004: Kerry 307 (+55), Bush 231 (-55)
Changes by election day: Florida, Iowa, Missouri, New Mexico, West Virginia

Today: Obama 289, McCain 236, Tied 13
Total with same EV shift as 2004: McCain 304, Obama 234 (all 13 tied go to McCain)

Cross posted at Mad Wombat

•  mojo jarjo

  I'll probably also start posting weekly Election Day live thread diaries, possibly starting even next week, to start organization and planning for that (some of you might remember the project from 2006).

  by FleetAdmiralJ on Tue Aug 05, 2008 at 06:43:08 AM PDT

  •  Great project

    Very well organized.  You did a fine job.
    Oh how I would like FL to go from gray to light blue.

    by donnamarie on Tue Aug 05, 2008 at 06:47:18 AM PDT

    •  well, right now

      the computer is being pushed to the limit not to make it light red, unfortunately

      by FleetAdmiralJ on Tue Aug 05, 2008 at 06:48:33 AM PDT

      •  I know

        I'm very sorry to say.  Damn Panhandlers.

        by donnamarie on Tue Aug 05, 2008 at 07:04:42 AM PDT

  •  Thanks for the hard work on this

    and all the hard work to come.

    by theotherside on Tue Aug 05, 2008 at 09:33:58 PM PDT

•  Nice work!

  Now let go back and digest all this info.

  by MadGeorgiaDem on Tue Aug 05, 2008 at 06:47:18 AM PDT

•  Changing the Map

  Great diary. All week my Mom has been "Ohio, Ohio, Ohio!" and I've been telling her that it doesn't have to come down to just one state with a candidate willing to campaign anywhere and everywhere.

  Thanks for the updated info.

  by kath25 on Tue Aug 05, 2008 at 06:47:58 AM PDT

  •  A mother knows.

    I dunno, maybe I'm just feeling pessimistic, but I'm with Mom on this. Although I also feel that one of the best ways to compete in Ohio (or Florida, say) is by running in a dozen other states. So maybe I'm with you.

    I think my post-partisanship is showing.

    (And great diary, FleetAdmiralJ.)

    by GussieFN on Tue Aug 05, 2008 at 06:52:22 AM PDT

  •  Ohio is good but ...

    Obama now has several open roads to victory, actually more like multiple lanes on a wide freeway:

    The final Kerry strategy of the Kerry-Gore states plus Ohio.

    The Southwest strategy that was probed early in Kerry's campaign but didn't quite pan out last time, of the Kerry states plus New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada.

    The Gore strategy of the Gore-Kerry states plus Florida.

    The Virginia strategy of the Kerry states plus Iowa and Virginia.

    The White Bread strategy of the Kerry states plus Iowa,  Montana, Alaska, North Dakota, and South Dakota.

    So it's easy to see Obama getting to the 270 EVs needed to win.

    But I want a landslide to repudiate Bush and the Repubs. I can get to 366 this way: Kerry states plus IA, CO, NM, NV, MT, ND, MO, OH, VA, FL. But I can't get over 400 without cracking the South or grabbing Arizona. Still, if we get 366 EVs, with a 100 EV margin of McSame, and carry 10 more states, that will be fine.

    by Woody on Tue Aug 05, 2008 at 08:26:14 AM PDT

•  Obama is in Indiana today and tomorrow, need Poll

  by drmah on Tue Aug 05, 2008 at 07:04:48 AM PDT

•  Ugh. Heartburn city from here on out.

  Razor close race.  Gotta work our asses off.

  And redouble our efforts to prevent vote stealing, because this one will be close enough to steal.

  by Geekesque on Tue Aug 05, 2008 at 07:07:24 AM PDT

•  Florida Moved Pretty Sharply to McCain Yesterday

  SUSA has him up 6 there.

  by Davidsfr on Tue Aug 05, 2008 at 07:08:07 AM PDT

•  electoral map

  should show Obama way out it front. i cant believe he is allowing a 72 year old angry man stay competitive. this should not even be close.

  by claytoncharles on Tue Aug 05, 2008 at 07:18:21 AM PDT

  •  Yawn

    It has nothing to do with Obama "letting" anything happen.  The media wants a horse race and they are determined to have one.

    This one is going to stay close the whole way through.  Unless you've personally grabbed a clipboard and gone out to register voters, you really shouldn't talk about anyone else "letting" McCain stay competitive.  And if you have registered voters, you need to get out and register some more.

    This isn't about what Obama does.  It's about what we do.

    by snout on Tue Aug 05, 2008 at 07:26:22 AM PDT

•  Thanks FleetAdmiral: To me, this is more useful

  ... than the Gallup national tracking polls because the Electoral College maps seem to do a better job of showing where Obama (and we) need to concentrate our campaign resources in order to win this fall.

  The national poll numbers are nice to have (especially if they suggest movement in our direction), but that isn't how the ballots are counted to elect a president, so I tend to prefer surveys that look at things by individual states.

  by philimus on Tue Aug 05, 2008 at 08:40:23 AM PDT

•  Great Work

  I've posted a link to www.politicalbetting.com, because they are poll vultures, and love this sort of intense and detailed work!

  Good job - looking forward to the next one.

  by Morus on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 02:13:01 AM PDT