National Polls Show Obama Holding His Lead
by DemFromCT
Thu Aug 07, 2008 at 06:38:07 AM PDT
CBS 7/31-8/5/08 (RV) (July):
Obama 45 (45)
McCain 39 (39)
Obama's lead over McCain is built on stronger support from Democrats, liberals, African Americans, voters under age 45 and women. Most former supporters of Hillary Clinton are backing Obama, as are a plurality of working class whites, a group Obama struggled to attract during the primary.
McCain leads among conservatives, Republicans, white evangelicals and voters age 45 and over. The presumptive GOP nominee has a narrow lead with men and with whites.
Independents are evenly split between the two candidates.
From the detailed .pdf:
The enthusiasm gap remains: Obama’s supporters are three times as likely as McCain’s to be enthusiastic about their candidate.
BTW Bush's job approval is at 25%, equaling his all-time low (only Nixon at 24% and Truman at 22% were ever lower).
AP-Ipsos 7/31-8/4/08 (RV) (June):
Obama 47 (50)
McCain 41 (43)
TIME (LV with leaners) 7/31-8/4/08 (June):
Obama 46 (47)
McCain 41 (43)
For those who care, the Wednesday Gallup tracker has Obama +2, and Thursday Rasmussen has Obama (with and without leaners) +1. As usual, they run a few points behind the national polls.
Meanwhile, McCain is not making any headway despite the plethora of negative ads. Since the talking heads can't sell their Main Theme A 'race is tightening' idea (always relevant whenever it can be pushed), they've all moved on to Backup Theme B, which is "Obama is not closing the deal'. But why should he? It's summer, the conventions are a few weeks away, and there are plenty of undecideds out there who want to hear more about policy and learn more about the candidates before they make up their minds. CBS on uncommitted voters:
CBS News re-interviewed voters who said they were uncommitted, including those who had a candidate but said their minds could change, when we first spoke with them in a CBS News/New York Times poll in mid-July. In the July poll, that was about 36 percent of all registered voters.
The most recent round of interviews suggest that these uncommitted voters remain largely up for grabs.
Seven in ten remain uncommitted. And while a quarter of this group now say they have made a commitment to a candidate that they don’t think will change before the election, about as many as a month ago don’t have a candidate choice at all yet.
This group seems to have become less interested in the campaign since last month. When asked in mid-July how much attention they’d been paying to the 2008 campaign generally, 45 percent said they’d paid a lot. When asked in this poll how much attention they’d been paying in the last few weeks, only 18 percent reported paying a lot of attention.
On the one hand the race is stable because Obama has kept this lead up since clinching. On the other, the race is fluid because the undecideds have not - erm - decided. Keep that in mind when looking at pushing leaners to decide. Does it really make sense to do that? They'll make up their mind when they're ready...
So, back to basics. The convention will be the next big shift in the numbers (not the VP choice, which excites only the talking heads). As far as Obama's standing goes, the negative ads have not hurt, the trip overseas has not hurt, the idea that "whatever you can possibly think of is good for McCain" has not hurt.
Like it or not, this is hurry up and wait stuff (wait until September). And it doesn't matter how many journalists like McCain and carry his water. He's not doing any better because of it, even in TIME's LV poll (who can figure what an LV is this year?). Obama will neither clinch the election nor lose it in August. In fact, it's looking more like 1980 every day. But in the meantime, Obama's lead holds.
Update [2008-8-7 12:43:21 by DemFromCT]: from First Read:
If it’s August, that means that Democratic politicos are wringing their hands about their presidential candidate’s campaign strategy, even though this guy -- unlike the guy four years ago -- is actually winning in the mid-single digits.
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