How did Howard Dean win 3 delegates in the Arizona primary, where he finished below the 15% viability threshold with 13.87%?
Why do Dean's 18% of "State Delegate Equivalents" net him only 2 delegates in the Iowa caucus ... and not the 8 delegates widely reported in mainstream sources?
To understand this, you need to understand one or two things about 2004 Democratic Delegate Selection Plans (DSP's).
DSP's vary -- enormously -- by state, but they all have some features in common.
Every state allocates delegates proportionally. There is no "unit rule" winner-take-all event.
Every state applies a 15% "viability" threshold at each step in the delegate selection process.
Every state selects some of its alloted delegates at Congressional District level. If your state has five CD's, it has the equivalent of five separate primaries or caucuses.
Dean finished with 15.3% in Arizona's 4th CD, 17.4% in the 7th, and 16.6% in the 8th, to take one delegate in each. (He's still below threshold for any share of the 19 delegates allocated at State level, pro rata the statewide vote totals.)
In the Iowa caucus, Dean captured 18% of delegates elected at precinct caucuses, but narrowly missed threshold in Polk County (Des Moines). This leaves him "nonviable" in the 4th CD, and at State level as well.
Dean finished nonviable in 37 of Iowa's 99 counties, leaving him viable (for one delegate each) only in CD's 1 and 5.
That's not the end of the story. There's always some fall-off in attendance at the second-tier (county) caucus, and discouraged Deanies might show up less religiously than their more established and energized Kerry and Edwards rivals. Dean could lose one -- or conceivably both -- of his "won" delegates.
On the other hand, Dean supporters can recruit other delegates (Gephardt? Kucinich?) to join their ranks ... and might even remedy the Polk County shortfall at the next-tier caucus.
For an example of pretty-darned-good reporting of the game as it is scored, check out the AZ Democratic party site.
See New Mexico for honorable mention.
See any of several other state sites for comprehensive NON-reporting of who really won anything.
And let me know if you find any mainstream news organization that took time to understand the rules, keep score, and report it.