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Update: here's a DIGG link

Gallup has released weekly breakdowns of Candidate Support by Region for the Sept 1-7, which includes the RNC convention.  My own analysis comparing these numbers to the previous two weeks (Aug 25-31: Post-DNC convention and Aug 18-24: Pre-DNC convention), it's easy to see:


The Palin bounce in national polls is being driven by a response in the South.

Even better news - over both conventions (Update [2008-9-10 11:3:2 by DaveV]:: title fixed):


Obama actually gained in the crucial Midwest and West.

The Palin bounce was largely contained to the South (+11) -- states that Barack does not need to win the election.  It was also fairly substantial in the East (+6), but the East is largely locked up for Obama.  The bounce was smallest in the crucial Midwest (+4) and nil in the West.

Over both conventions, McCain lost ground in both the Midwest and West -- areas that contain the crucial battleground states.

It's pretty hard to spin this as "good news for McCain."

Here are the raw numbers:

One final piece of comfort.  The Palin bounce is nowhere near as large as the bounce Bush got over Kerry in 2004.  

From RealClearPolitics(plus some additional info boxes from me):

Over the spread of both conventions, Bush picked up 6 points from 44.5 to 50.5, while Kerry lost 2.5 from 45.5 to 43.  The net bounce overall for Bush was 8.5 points.

Today, from the week before the DNC convention to the week of the GOP convention, Gallup shows Obama picked up 2 points among RVs (45 to 47, while McCain stayed flat 45 to 45).  The 2008 net convention bounce is +2 for Obama!

In other words, we're far ahead of 2004.

This is not meant to lull you into complacency.  We've still got miles to go (as the RCP chart shows from 2004, lots of things happen after the conventions).  We need tons volunteer groundwork to seal the deal.

Hopefully, this will make some of our more nervous colleagues feel a bit more, what's the word I'm looking for?  Oh yeah.  Hope.

UPDATE: A commenter asks for the definitions of Gallup's regions.  I couldn't find anything current, but if they are the same as defined in 1994, then the answer is here:

East: Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New York, New Kersey, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, West Virginia, District of Columbia.

Midwest: Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas.

South: Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Texas

West: Montana, Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Wyoming, Utah, Nevada, New Mexico, California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii, Alaska.

Notably, the South does contain Virginia and Florida -- so, that may be of some concern.  We'll have to look at the state polls as they come out.

Originally posted to DaveV on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 07:55 AM PDT.

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