Gallup: Shows "Palin Bounce" largely contained to South (Updated)

Update: here's a DIGG link

Gallup has released weekly breakdowns of Candidate Support by Region for the Sept 1-7, which includes the RNC convention.  My own analysis comparing these numbers to the previous two weeks (Aug 25-31: Post-DNC convention and Aug 18-24: Pre-DNC convention), it's easy to see:

The Palin bounce in national polls is being driven by a response in the South.

Even better news - over both conventions (Update [2008-9-10 11:3:2 by DaveV]:: title fixed):

Obama actually gained in the crucial Midwest and West.

The Palin bounce was largely contained to the South (+11) -- states that Barack does not need to win the election.  It was also fairly substantial in the East (+6), but the East is largely locked up for Obama.  The bounce was smallest in the crucial Midwest (+4) and nil in the West.

Over both conventions, McCain lost ground in both the Midwest and West -- areas that contain the crucial battleground states.

It's pretty hard to spin this as "good news for McCain."

Here are the raw numbers:

One final piece of comfort.  The Palin bounce is nowhere near as large as the bounce Bush got over Kerry in 2004.  

From RealClearPolitics(plus some additional info boxes from me):

Over the spread of both conventions, Bush picked up 6 points from 44.5 to 50.5, while Kerry lost 2.5 from 45.5 to 43.  The net bounce overall for Bush was 8.5 points.

Today, from the week before the DNC convention to the week of the GOP convention, Gallup shows Obama picked up 2 points among RVs (45 to 47, while McCain stayed flat 45 to 45).  The 2008 net convention bounce is +2 for Obama!

In other words, we're far ahead of 2004.

This is not meant to lull you into complacency.  We've still got miles to go (as the RCP chart shows from 2004, lots of things happen after the conventions).  We need tons volunteer groundwork to seal the deal.

Hopefully, this will make some of our more nervous colleagues feel a bit more, what's the word I'm looking for?  Oh yeah.  Hope.

UPDATE: A commenter asks for the definitions of Gallup's regions.  I couldn't find anything current, but if they are the same as defined in 1994, then the answer is here:

East: Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New York, New Kersey, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, West Virginia, District of Columbia.

Midwest: Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas.

South: Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Texas

West: Montana, Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Wyoming, Utah, Nevada, New Mexico, California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii, Alaska.

Notably, the South does contain Virginia and Florida -- so, that may be of some concern.  We'll have to look at the state polls as they come out.

•  Get fired up and volunteer to make this real.

  Follow the link in my sig today!

  by DaveV on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 07:56:27 AM PST

  •  Great perspective, thanks! n/t

    by fidellio on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:26:06 AM PST

    •  275 O - 262 Mc at 538 Virginia slipped

      and North Carolina went straight to Hell.

      This is not good news but it's not terrible news.

      Volunteer for Obama and make the margin grow.

      by FishOutofWater on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:40:11 AM PST

      •  Ground game, ground game, ground game!

        We can make a 5 point swing in any state by turnout alone.  We'll get Virginia if we work for it.

        by DaveV on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:43:35 AM PST

        •  I couldn't find a Digg link for your diary,

          so I added one here.  Good analysis Dave.  Digg it, y'all.

          by Involuntary Exile on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:04:53 AM PST

          •  Thanks! I put it in the diary up top. nt

            by DaveV on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:08:22 AM PST

        •  Ferraro bounced back then and faded...

          Let us ask mccain about his 'WET START' that resulted in the deaths of 100 on the USS Forresthal  or Keating 5
          
          We should be mindful that these polls do not get the cellphone only voter or the commuter that comes home between 5/7 pm...

          Calm down..remember the south is a clinton stronghold...if she has the gonads she will speak to them directly but her grace is doubtful!!

          by docb on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:56:13 AM PST

          •  Don't make stuff up

            The Forrestal Fire was caused by a missile that was improperly installed (no check for stray voltage before connecting up to fire control system) and the missile fired across the flight deck hitting a plane, causing fuel to be spilled, catching fire, and then very old 1,000 pound bombs, which should not have been in use because the high explosive was unstable started cooking off and exploding.

            Most of the loss of life was due to bombs exploding, including a 1,000 pound bomb exploding directly over a berthing area and killing most or all of the men inside.

            John McCain had nothing to do with the missile going off or the bombs blowing up, or the fire.

            Don't write this stuff and discredit Dailykos.

            A wet start is when a jet engine does not start properly and unburned fuel is expelled out the exhaust of the jet, then when the engine does light off, it ignites the fuel that has been thrown out the tailpipe, and can destroy the jet engine in question.  The Forrestal fire was not caused by a wet start.

            Keating 5 is fair game.

            by Ohiodem1 on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 10:59:17 AM PST

            •  I've seen the footage

              You can SEE the fucking missile firing and hitting the other jet.  McCain is a piece of shit but this is garbage.  The real mystery is how more Forrestal fires don't happen all the time given the close proximity of fuel, explosives and open flames from jet engines.

              by Event Horizon on Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 02:38:42 AM PST

              •  From my own experience

                on an aircraft carrier during Vietnam, I can tell you that fires happen frequently on carriers.  A group of fire fighting professionals called the Flying Squad are charged with being the first on the scene to contain the fires.  Hardly a day goes by without a call on the 1MC (shipboard intercom) to check out a high temperature alarm or smoke alarm or fuel spill or machinery fire, always with the compartment code, and the command "Away the Flying Squad".

                The George Washington is in port getting a massive rework right now because of a fire due to unathorized smoking in a flammable storage area that cost the CO and XO their jobs.

                So, yes, fires happen frequently on carriers, and the Flying Squad saves many lives, and keep the fires out of the newspapers.  BTW, I was never on the Flying Squad.

                Every avaition sailor in the Navy has seen that film many times.  Every sailor in the Navy is a trained fire fighter.  In my four years, I attended some kind of fire fighting school 8 times, and fire fighting was nowhere near my specialty area.

                by Ohiodem1 on Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 05:46:49 AM PST

        •  Double up effort

          I have doubled my efforts to get more boots on the ground. How did we win Iowa? Boots on the ground plus best message for America.

          Lets go get folks.

          Empty the piggy bank!

          by nyacker on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 10:27:14 AM PST

          •  Speaking of Iowa

            As a resident, I pay a little extra attention to my state.  In the 538.com numbers, Iowa has been solidifying behind Obama for the last week.

            We know pigs.  Lipstick don't play here.

            by MooseHB on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:56:12 PM PST

        •  ....but we are going to NEED that 5 points....

          ....to compensate for the 5 points that the republicans will easily STEAL.

          BAZ

          by bmcphail on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 10:54:54 AM PST

          •  NC and VA state gov't are controlled by Dems

            it'll be much harder for them to steal these states.  Not like Florida with Jeb Bush and Charlie Crist.

            by William S on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:52:32 PM PST

      •  North Carolina only dropped...

        ...because of that SUSA super-outlier.  It's still in play, though not as much as VA.

        by SLKRR on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:56:19 AM PST

        •  Good discussion on pollster.com

          about that SUSA poll.  The switch in part ID was like net 14 points to the GOP.  Brian Schaffner says that's just not realistic.

          by DaveV on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:00:11 AM PST

          •  Sept 9 PPP NC Mc 48 O 44

            The PPP poll is consistent with other polls. The 20 point spread of Rass is way out there.

            With strong GOTV we still have a fighting chance to win. It's a very tough challenge, but it's worth fighting for.

            by FishOutofWater on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:47:33 AM PST

        •  I'm Told Southern Baptists Despise Pentacostals

          A NC baptist tells me that they will not be thrilled with her church. They said this is a really big deal for a Pentacostal to tell the Baptits what's what. I guess they had a a big split over what flavor of Millenialism they favor.

          by bernardpliers on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:02:35 AM PST

          •  Baptists have a real problem with

            the glossalia ("tongues") stuff. The more you emphasize that her particular church practices it, the less they'll like her. It's not as powerful as the way they felt about the Plastic Mormon, but it's real and it's there.

            And, y'know, there is the occasional Baptist who actually doesn't like adulterous, lying, whining, warmongering sonzabitches at the top of the ticket, either. But they've been conditioned to overlook the faults of their Republican overlords.

            by bwintx on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:34:38 AM PST

            •  Thanks

              I was unaware of the fine distinctions. I always kind of figured everything to the "right" of Methodist was redneck, except Mormons get a special category.

              by TBarta on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:53:51 AM PST

            •  It's not just occasional. It's more like pretty

              damned common. Don't confuse Baptists in all their varieties with the mega-churches that have charismatic, crackerjack-box ordained preachers. You'd be surprised how many Southern Baptist preachers have divinity degrees from places that practice pretty damned orthodox Christianity. The place I work is almost exclusively composed of folks who think the Jonesers are first-class nutters, and we're basically down the street from them, for all intents and purposes.

              by steve davis on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 10:43:02 AM PST

              •  Used to be one of 'em, just FYI

                so I kinda have a wealth of experience with (and scars from) it. In fact, there's more to the story, but after what happened to droogie (i.e., re making himself easy to ID), I hesitate to say more.

                Still, your points are well taken.

                by bwintx on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 11:59:07 AM PST

                •  "One of 'em" = Southern Baptist, not

                  Pentacostal -- just to clear that up.

                  by bwintx on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 11:59:55 AM PST

          •  fine - let them fight each other over the Rapture

            I'll just wait and get all their stuff!

            by CParis on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:34:54 AM PST

      •  The one flaw with 538, and I love Nate.

        Is that he goes off of "respected pollsters". So regardless if their polls are good or not (pary ID,weighting,etc.) he still uses them in his numbers, even if their flawed. I guess he does this, so he doesn't appear partisan or like the arbitrator.

        The other thing I don't like Nate does, is when these these things happen, he immediately shifts his model, insteaad of weighting to see is it a trend.

        by Excelscior1 on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:00:09 AM PST

        •  Well, the hope is that the flawed polls

          will average out.  So, the estimate of mean support is consistent, but the variance gets bigger.  Unless they're all flawed in the same direction, then the modeling won't help.

          by DaveV on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:01:16 AM PST

      •  Obama in Va yesterday and today!

        by VA Breeze on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:14:48 AM PST

      •  PPP Says McBush's NC Lead Is 4 Points...

        http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpoi...

        SUSA's result is probably an outlier.

        by majcmb1 on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:18:33 AM PST

        •  PPP is the outlier

          PPP routinely is over-optimistic about Dems, it's a Dem outfit. PPP had Obama up 8 in Ohio in June. Just forget PPP.

          by Ohiobama on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:30:41 AM PST

          •  But SUSA sucked in the south throughout the

            primary. The truth is probably somewhere in between the two polls.

            by paintitblue on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:41:19 AM PST

          •  PPP is based in NC and their polls were accurate

            in the primaries in NC.

            Each polling outfit polls better in certain areas.  PPP is great in NC and awful everywhere else.  SUSA is great in the midwest and rustbelt and sucks in the South.

            by askew on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 10:13:41 AM PST

          •  No, It's Not.

            PPP has been consistent with other state polling. The SUSA NC Poll is clearly an outlier. Nobody goes from up 2-3 points to up 20 points in such a short time, especially when it's been close in NC for three months.

            by kefauver on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 02:29:04 PM PST

      •  I'm not going to worry until after the debates.

        I do beleive Palin/McCain numbers are going to fall like  a box of rocks after the debates.

        The ISSUES have to come back into play after all the Palin gushing stops.

        by Esjaydee on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:24:01 AM PST

        •  Don't trust American people to have good sense

          Anymore after 2004 debates.  George Bush couldn't have been any more foolish if he had come out on stage dressed like Cindy from the Brady Bunch in blonde curly pigtails, striped mini-skirt and white go-go boots.  I thought surely people would see what a nuthead he is in comparision to a far greater intellect -- it is all over for him.  And he still got enough votes to convincingly steal the election, even with the dismal and dippy debate performances.  That 2004 response DOES make me worry.

          Nothing can be taken for granted and we cannot expect Obama and Biden to do this alone in the debates or elsewhere. We need to get out there for them.  

          by jzso on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:33:01 AM PST

          •  true. however...

            this ain't 2004.  and mccain/palin aren't bush/cheney.

            and obama/biden sure as hell ain't kerry/edwards.

            by Latex Solar Beef on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:54:37 AM PST

          •  Roger that - don't count on debates

            By the time they arrive, we're unfortunately fighting for low-information voters who will be watching candlepin bowling, Sponge Bob, How I Met your Mother, anything but something requiring thought and listening power.

            At least that's the lesson of the 2004 debates.  Looks like we'll be entering into this ahead, which is crucial.  Once the debates come around, only a cataclysmic failure on the part of one candidate or another--worse than GWB's astonishingly embarassing first debate in '04 evidently--will affect the current projected election outcome at the time.  If such a breakdown is possible, the only person who would be liable for it would be John McCain.

            by waytac on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:59:47 AM PST

            •  Hey, now.

              Sponge Bob maybe, but HIMYM is only popular with cool people.

              I think the show you were looking for is "Two and a Half Men." Or perhaps "Fat Schlub and his Absurdly Hot Wife."

              by ladyv on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 03:15:15 PM PST

      •  not necessarily - PPP poll had NC within 1 sigma

        Margin of error (sigma or standard dev) was 4 points,
        McCain 48 Obama 44

        Make the repubs spend in VA and NC which are not sure things at all.

        by dlcox1958 on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:53:21 AM PST

      •  Watch out for VA voter suppression

        First it was the Repub Party claims - at the moment the Obama campaign began gearing up in VA - that voter drives left voters vulnerable to ID theft - with a WaPo editorial (!!!) - calling this fraudulent voter suppression a couple of weeks ago (!!!)

        Most recently it is the VA Board of Elections sending out mailers to college students with false claims that student registerees will lose scholarships, parents' ability to claim them as dependents, etc etc.
        All untrue and had to be retracted...

        The powers that be in VA are working hard to stop the Democratic ground game.

        by puffmeister on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 10:30:26 AM PST

        •  Possibly not completely untrue

          if they're getting scholarships based on their state of residency, AND they're considered an independent student or over 23, they might lose that state-based scholarship because they will be seen as having changed residency.

          It shouldn't have any real bearing on anything if they're still a dependent student, but if they're not, it could make a difference.

          by mmacdDE on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 10:40:24 AM PST

      •  It's the SUSA poll

        SurveyUSA is pretty good in most of the country but they're pretty shitty in NC(they were one of the worst during the primary) and also picked one of the worst possible times to do their polls(Labor Day Weekend, when college students and recent arrivals will be most likely to be in other places, and the fundies will be most likely to have just gotten home from church)

        by William S on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:51:25 PM PST

    •  thanks so much

         It uplifts this pissed off Dem.

      by gwh on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:12:37 AM PST

  •  Totally consistent with the fact

    that no state that was for Obama pre-conventions has flipped.  Hold NM, IA and CO and Ohio can seal the deal.

    by mspicata on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:29:39 AM PST

    •  Don't even need Ohio

      Kerry states+NM, IA and CO would be 273 EVs, a win...

      by skywaker9 on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:37:17 AM PST

      •  NM I think is okay

        It was almost a tie in 00 and 04, and I think Udall's reverse coattails plus Richardson plus turnout puts Obama over the top there.

        IA is a little shakier, I think, now that the fundies are excited. Where I would really try to pick up is NH...they are NOT culture warriors up there, they are more anti-government fiscal conservatives, and also older. I think they don't like Palin and don't trust McCain. Also the entire New England region is very strong for Obama. So NH and its 4 EVs can go blue easier than in Iowa.

        4 from NH plus 7 from NM plus 9 from CO plus Kerry = the magic 270.

        by ekthesy on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:43:05 AM PST

        •  Ia is NOT shaky

          The State R party is basically in complete disarray there according to friends on the ground.  It was almost as close as NM in both 2000 and 2004...

          NH will stay blue too.

          by skywaker9 on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:45:12 AM PST

          •  Thanks for the IA reassurance

            I always was shocked that Iowa City was one of the most liberal cities in America...I'm just figuring it out this cycle that Iowa is an odd state, politically. I know they love them some Obama.

            by ekthesy on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:51:31 AM PST

            •  I lived in Iowa for several years

              It is not the fundie belt - it's actually the most educated state in the nation!  

              The Repubs there are more like their neighbors in the Great Plains states than those in the South.  And notice how the Dakotas have shifted sharply blue-ward since the last election!  Of the states won by Bush in 2004, Iowa will have the largest margin of victory for Obama.  

              by SLKRR on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:00:05 AM PST

            •  And Grassley is sitting this one out.

              Taking a nap.......................

              by vets74 on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:34:31 AM PST

        •  Iowa isn't shaky at all

          Iowans hate McCain, and racial politics don't work there.  Iowa is less shaky than Wisconsin (which isn't really), which is less shaky than Michigan (which shouldn't be a problem with good turnout).

          by DelRPCV on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:56:41 AM PST

          •  agreed on WI. from my work on the ground, the

            way we look at it is, it will be close as always in WI.  every year our state flirts with disaster (2004, anyone?)  just a few points in the end, but Obama will win.

            a small margin of victory is still victory.

            by krwlngwthyou on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:05:27 AM PST

          •  Don't be so sure...

            I think we will win Iowa, and probably by a large margin, but it isn't in the bag.  I live and canvass in Grinnell, IA, home of Grinnell College and an extremely  progressive rural small town.  Iowa is a state with a large older population and I was shocked during my canvassing of DEMOCRATS how many undecideds there were and how much straight-up racism came into play. (One quote "I'd like to, but he's the wrong color")  The older crowd here is definitely of the "I vote for the person, not the party" mentality and they don't know that McCain is a true piece of garbage.  They see POW and the commercials that are all about the 60s, which doesn't seem so long ago to them, since they were already freakin' grandparents by that point.

            IOWA IS NOT A DONE DEAL!!!
            DO NOT LOOK AWAY FROM THE BALL!!!

            by Wednesday Bizzare on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 11:58:05 AM PST

        •  Kerry won NH so not a pickup.

          by PasstheBill on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:13:28 AM PST

        •  Your numbers are off

          First, NM is 5 votes.  The Kerry states, including NH's 5, give Obama 252 EVs.  IA adds 7 to 259; NM adds 5 to 264.  CO adds 9 to 273 or NV adds 5 to 269 (barring a faithless elector) and a presumable win in the House.

          by Seneca Doane on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:44:27 AM PST

        •  Iowa is definitely not shaky.

          Palin isn't going to play well in Minnesota or Iowa.  She is way out of the mainstream in these states.  Palin will play better in Missouri, Ohio and the south.

          by askew on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 10:15:43 AM PST

        •  The latest Iowa poll had Obama +15

          55%-40%

          Former Rep. Jim Leach, who represented Iowa in Congress for 30 years as a Republican, has endorsed Obama, and spoke on the Monday night of the Democratic Convention.  

          Chances are you missed that speech, since the corporate media didn't cover it.  They were too busy covering the mindless blabbering of their actors anchors.  

          by Big River Bandido on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 10:31:11 AM PST

          •  Leach is a definite help,

            but please read my post upthread. Iowa is NOT a sure thing.

            by Wednesday Bizzare on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 11:59:20 AM PST

            •  I grew up in Davenport

              and still have family and friends there.

              Prior to 1988, only Republicans could count on Iowa.  Theodore White in 1960 called Iowa "the very Citadel of Republicanism".  

              Since 1988 it's been a near balance, with Democrats winning by close margins in every year except 2004, when Bush won by the absolute narrowest of margins.  His second term succeeded in alienating what was left of his (and the Iowa Republican Party's) margin;  there are plenty of old-line Republicans in Iowa (like Leach) who are appalled at what the party has become.  All indications are that this year, the pendulum has finally swung.  I don't ever recall seeing a Presidential poll of Iowa voters in which the Democrat led by 15 points.  

              Iowa is never a sure thing.  But the fact that Obama leads by that much at this point, is indicative.  It's also indicative that from the beginning he's attracted critical support from Iowa Republicans, like the 3rd-term Republican mayor of Brooklyn, who caucused for Obama in January.  

              by Big River Bandido on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 04:51:22 PM PST

        •  I don't think IA is full of THAT kind

          of fundies, kwim?

          by jenesq on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:13:23 PM PST

          •  There are enough

            only to swing a Republican primary.  There are not enough Christianists in Iowa to swing a statewide election, when all other factors are equal.  

            by Big River Bandido on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 04:43:39 PM PST

      •  Without Ohio -

        It gets PRETTY slim.
        I'll take Ohio, thank you very much.

        by johnnygunn on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:43:19 AM PST

        •  Or FL, or IN or MO, or VA

          Any one of those states and it's all over...

          by skywaker9 on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:44:23 AM PST

          •  I think that State polling will show

            that if Palin is helping at all she will help in places like IN and MO.  BO needs to seriously overperform in IN to win that State and I doubt that will happen.  I don't know what the deal is with MO but it never seems to come around.  I think OH, IA, VA, CO, NV, and NM are the best pickup opportunities and we need to keep an eye on MI.  I know the polls who it tight but I just can't get my brain around BO winning FL. Very little racism out west and those States are hard hit with the housing slump.  

            by PasstheBill on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:18:54 AM PST

            •  Palin was targeted principally at Ohio and

              has the largest effect here, of any battleground state. See my diary http://www.dailykos.com/...

              by Ohiobama on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:23:14 AM PST

            •  Missouri is more southern..

              except around some of the college towns and big cities. The rural areas are very religious. In fact, my hubby considered going back to school there until we found out that to homeschool in Missouri, we would have to prove that it was due to religious grounds. We would essentially have to sign a statement of faith in order to teach our children at home. It is nothing like the upper midwest..more like Kansas I think.

              by rian90 on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 10:05:47 AM PST

            •  I'm surprised there's not more action in NV

              It seems the NV goopers are in disarray.  

              I too am having a hard time getting my head around winning FL.  The one PUMA holdout I know is there.  Plus I know racists there.  Plus I know some of the GOP type there who are very keen on tax cuts for the wealthy.

              by flight2q on Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 03:56:49 AM PST

        •  Forget Ohio.

          It's all about the mountain west.

          You'll see.

          by beatpanda on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:45:39 AM PST

          •  I Live in the West -

            But I'd still rest more comfortably if we had Ohio.

            by johnnygunn on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:50:40 AM PST

          •  Nevada and Montana

            sound fine to me. Also if it is made clear how fundamentalist and fundamentally reactionary Palin really is, I like our chances in Florida too.

            by global citizen on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:54:29 AM PST

            •  Palin probably scares Jews in Florida

              Wild eyed fundies put them off their mah jong.

              And they likely have some confidence in Obama/Biden's foreign policy approach. Jews are sick of warmongering.

              The crackers were all in for McCain anyway.  

              A younger Hispanic generation will offset the older Cuban vote.

              I imagine the ballots will be more clear.

              North Florida has lots of blacks.

              Gays in Miami and Key West.

              I like our chances in Fla.

              by bob zimway on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:37:20 AM PST

              •  Just in general we older people

                are more aware of mortality and more aware that Palin is pretty near to be likely to be President and to then run as an incumbant will all the advantages that holds. Now that is a frightening thought. As awful as he is I would hope against hope for good health for McCain every single day lest she be in there and get a personal message from God.

                by global citizen on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:52:03 AM PST

              •  Unfortunately,

                Its the fundamentalist who make up a large portion of the population along with the wealthy Republicans on the coasts. Crist is very popular here. I would love to see Florida go blue but I have my doubts. It won't stop me from working hard though!

                Crackers, by the way, is a rather racist term for old Florida white families that settled here long ago. Not all of them are fundamentalist and not all of them are Republicans. In fact, I think at least half the people I have met through our local Democratic clubs call themselves crackers. Might not be a good word to use to insult Floridians.

                by rian90 on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 10:03:13 AM PST

                •  My mother is from Live Oak

                  and I grew up in East Tennessee. I've earned the right to say the word.

                  by bob zimway on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 10:11:07 AM PST

          •  I wish I could

            but I live here dammmit
            I really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really wish that Ohio wasn't in play again

            But, since it is, another after-work canvassing trip for me I guess...  

            by Comrade Brad on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:25:32 AM PST

        •  Ohio should count as South in this poll

          because Appalachian Ohio, where Ohio's swing votes are, is distinctly southern in response to Palin. This poll washes that out with the larger Midwest.

          Major strategy changes are needed to win Ohio. See my diary at http://www.dailykos.com/...

          by Ohiobama on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:20:59 AM PST

          •  Don't Know If You've Seen This Map -

            2008 primary results

            

            Obama didn't do well outside of Cleveland/Columbus/Dayton/Cincy.

            by johnnygunn on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:43:05 AM PST

            •  Palin was aimed right at the dark brown

              counties on that map

              by Ohiobama on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:45:06 AM PST

              •  You Mean -

                Northern West Virginia??

                by johnnygunn on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:46:24 AM PST

          •  Ohio is 4 states in one

            the northeast quadrant:  part of the Northeast
            the southeast quadrant:  part of Appalachia
            the southwest quadrant:  part of the South
            the northwest quadrant:  part of the Midwestern farm belt

            These are all broad, cultural generalizations, mind you.  But they work to describe the politics in each part of the state.

            by Big River Bandido on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 10:34:04 AM PST

            •  Plus it has

              rustbelt urban centers, go-go high growth Repubican suburbs, prosperous rural areas, and high poverty low educational level rural areas.

              Hold up a mirror to Ohio and you see the United States.

              by Ohiodem1 on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 11:23:30 AM PST

              •  Demographically, yes

                less so today than, say, 40 or 50 years ago when the Rust Belt was the Steel Belt...but still largely true.  

                Illinois is even more demographically proportionate to the nation as a whole.

                by Big River Bandido on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 04:35:21 PM PST

      •  I needed a comma...

        Thanks; that's what I meant.

        by mspicata on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:08:20 AM PST

  •  There is also other neighbor to neighor and ...

    ... peer-to-peer campaigning to do. In addition to Letters to the Editor if you are in a swing state and helping swing state residents with LTE's, there is also the online commentary of newspapers and the Yahoo/Google/AOL that are infested with right wingnuts energized by the Palin pick ... a couple of thousand kossacks hammering at the McCain+Palin=BUSH message in a couple of thousand different ways could make a serious difference.

    Plus we need to google-bomb McCain and Palin ... if the media will not be consistent in repeating their coverage of the McCain ticket lies, we can make sure that the coverage they have provided gets seen when people do the google to get information over the next critical 30 days.

    by BruceMcF on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:32:15 AM PST

  •  excellent DaveV

    now let's hope all those Chicken Littles will stop clucking!

    by louisev on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:08:26 AM PST

  •  4 x's tip 2 u...thank u

    by catty on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:43:15 AM PST

  •  Maybe she puts Georgia and NC out of play,

    but I don't think she has much of an effect on Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, etc.

    by Big Danny on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 10:57:06 AM PST

  •  Nice to see dissipation of the PalinPanic(tm)

    Rational analysis shows flaws in the polling methodology, and as some of the more responsible in the MSM have reported, the Palin pick was about shoring up base and firing up the R GOTV and fund-raising efforts, not capturing the swing voter who decides the election.

    McCain now has the Palin decision albatross around his neck.  How can he lead America and change Washington if he won't stand up to the radicals in his party?  Why did he pick a political tyro who is completely unknown, knows nothing about economics or foreign affairs, has a tremendous downside that everyone will be actively seeking, and that he did not vet or even want, if reports that he really wanted Lieberman or Ridge are accurate.  Does he make good, or does he make rash decisions?

    I think that the Palin decision will wind up being the blunder that loses the election for John McCain.

    by Ohiodem1 on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 11:17:57 AM PST

  •  FIRED UP HERE!!!!

    Thanks for the diary!!!

    by Wary on Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 04:11:21 AM PST

  •  Followed your link -- the site won't accept my

    address (which is correct -- I know that much, at least).

    Filed with the Feedback Forum, but got bounced back to the address page...

    Any advice?

    (I realize that's not your job, but has anyone else had this problem?)

    Thanks very much.

    by Yasuragi on Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 04:32:37 AM PST

    •  That's strange.

      I would say try again today; use a different browser if you can.  If no luck, then barackobama.com has a list of field offices; look for one in your area and call them.  They will get you signed up.

      by DaveV on Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 11:34:31 AM PST

      •  Thanks -- got an e-mail back from them saying

        they'd contact me shortly about the problem.  So I guess they will.  Shouldn't be too long.

        Thanks again.

        by Yasuragi on Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 12:09:47 PM PST

•  Whistling Past Dixie

  by methinshaw on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 07:57:53 AM PST

  •  was that snark?

    Whistling past the graveyard, or whistling dixie?

    Was that a play on words conflating those two?  very clever!

    by mengelhart on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 07:59:26 AM PST

    •  It's the title of a book

      ...that I'm pretty sure Dr. Howard Dean has read. In a nutshell, it's about how the Democrats should stop sucking up to the South and other solid-red Bible Belt states, and conversely, winning the  necessary electoral votes through other states.

      by Jank2112 on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:06:01 AM PST

      •  50-state strategy

        is SO important.  I am a Southerner.  I am a Democrat.  Now I live in Virginia.  It's a "swing" state.  Now my vote counts.  But Democratic votes in Tennessee and Florida would have mattered in 2000 too.  Unfortunately, there are some ignorant people in this region that vote aganist their needs and buy into values and image and all that malarkey.  I saw that in the OH and PA primaries this year too.  It easy to blame the South.  It's a cop out!  Run an effective campaign and Democrats can win anywhere.

        by tidalwave1 on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:12:24 AM PST

        •  They're not ignoring VA

          but yesterday's news seemed to indicate a decision to cede Georgia.

          by CPT Doom on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:14:03 AM PST

          •  I know.

            Living in the DC media market it's all political ads all the time!  And there are many more Obama bumper stickers out there than McCain ones.

            by tidalwave1 on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:17:45 AM PST

            •  Trying for 80% turnout in Northern Virginia.

              The registrars are hiring more workes.

              by Jim W on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:52:53 AM PST

              •  Given the amount of dead data on the voter rolls

                I'd say 80% is probably close to every eligible voter who's still living there and alive.

                by mmacdDE on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 10:46:30 AM PST

          •  Which, I can say on the ground there, is probably

            for the best.

            Perdue wasn't challenged.

            Sack-of-Shit Chambliss, who has done nothing good for the state, but has both an (R) and an (Incumbent) by his name, leads big in polling over Jim Martin (who is about as Progressive as you can get around here).

            Many of the folks I know who will vote for Obama still say "ah, McCain's not really that bad."

            by John Shade on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:40:12 AM PST

          •  I Missed That

            What was the news?

            by chaboard on Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 03:21:31 AM PST

        •  This is true. But...

          It seems like they took a serious look at every state rather than accepting the map of 2004.  But after the analysis you do have to accept those states that don't work this year.  I think the net effect is that Obama is going aggressively (and has been for some time) after states like Montana, Virginia, North Carolina.  And I think you can make an argument that he never would have put those states in play if he hadn't taken them seriously from the get-go.  That's the benefit.  But he can't waste his time on the states that McCain just locked up with Palin.  

          So now, the challenge is to do the same thing next time and see if we can't push the borders just a little bit.

          by yazilikaya on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:26:25 AM PST

          •  Yes, and if he can just get the netroots to ...

            ... get past its silly "gate" dreams of the McCain campaign imploding in scandal and get on target using her biography as governor of a state swimming in oil revenue to tap into resentment against oil companies, then it would be possible to neutralize the benefit of the Palin pick in the Ohio River Valley and then some in the outer suburbs of Cleveland, Columbus and Cincinatti.

            Remember, its a state by state election ... a swing vote in a Republican county is worth every bit as much as a swing vote in a Democratic county.

            by BruceMcF on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:44:06 AM PST

        •  Well of course

          we want the Democrats to "run an effective campaign" and win anywhere.

          But there is the matter of who you get to choose as your candidate and where resources are allocated.

          I'm a Southerner too and I agree with the premise of "Whistling Past Dixie" 100%.

          Why?  It's very simple.

          The Democratic Party, in order to appease a region of the country that has abandoned it, has now watered down its platform and its values to the point of not being able to excite the other regions of the country who ARE open to a Democratic message.

          This does not mean we are "writing off" the South, it means that we are drawing a line in the sand that traditional Democratic values are not up for negotiation just to make conservative Democrats happy.  Those tactics of Southern appeasement are what have gotten us into minority status in the first place!

          We are not going to be the "pro-business" and "pro-life" party just because the South wants us to be.  It would be one thing if those messages actually won elections here, but they increasingly do not.  More and more, I see Southern Democrats running as "pro-business" and "pro-life" and STILL lose their races.  Why?  I hate to say it, but in the South, the programming on talk radio and in church, coupled with a horrible public education system, is too strong.  Many of the voters here simply will not vote for a Democrat - even a pro-lifer - because they still think that candidate is a "liberal".  They don't really even know what a liberal is, but they know that all the Democrats are liberals and they hate them all.

          So why should the national party continue to play that game?  Voters in the Midwest and the West are totally in play and the Democrats should be focusing on bringing them into the Democratic Party as it is, rather than try to change who we are to make some Southerners happy (especially when that tactic isn't working).

          The stakes are too high now.  The South will eventually come on board after they get to see firsthand that a black or liberal president isn't the end of the world.  They may even find that once Obama is in office that he's going to do some things that help them and that will be the beginning of a new, permanent Democratic majority.  But for now, the DNC and the Obama Campaign are smart not to put its eggs in the Southern basket.

          by The Crusader on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:42:37 AM PST

          •  indeed

            it's hard harder to march into hostile political territory and say "this is what we believe" than to either write that area off and spare yourself the discomfort, or to change what you're saying to avoid confrontation.

            by wu ming on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:26:24 AM PST

          •  thanks for saying that

            by CParis on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:39:04 AM PST

          •  Excellent Post.

            Thanks. Excellent post.

            by npb7768 on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 10:34:38 AM PST

          •  Couldn't agree more

            I hate to say it, but in the South, the programming on talk radio and in church, coupled with a horrible public education system, is too strong.  Many of the voters here simply will not vote for a Democrat - even a pro-lifer - because they still think that candidate is a "liberal".  They don't really even know what a liberal is, but they know that all the Democrats are liberals and they hate them all.

            Bingo!

            The stakes are too high now.  The South will eventually come on board after they get to see firsthand that a black or liberal president isn't the end of the world.  They may even find that once Obama is in office that he's going to do some things that help them and that will be the beginning of a new, permanent Democratic majority.

            Again, spot on. That's the ONLY way it's going to happen. Even now, when the South is probably as amenable to change as it's been in a long time. It's still not quite enough. If it were a popular-vote election and getting 48% or 49% mattered, it might even be worth the effort, but it's not going to happen this year, especially with Palin on the ticket. This is the one region of the country where repeating all the scary fundie stuff about Palin that alarms folks on DKos will be greeted with, "And your point ...? The South is redeemable, but it's going to take a generation of reprogramming. I say that as a native Southerner with roots going back nearly 300 years in the Deep South.

            You folks in states or even metro areas who have alternative media available and a history of diverse political opinion enough that you actually have CONTESTS where the outcome is in doubt can't understand how monolithic it is here and how demonized the Democrats have been over the years. We don't even have that many metro areas and big cities that are clearly Democratic, as many red states in other regions do.  The cities may be more Democratic than the burbs and the rural areas, but that's only a matter of degree. And don't be fooled by the number of D's after politicians' names you might see on a list of Southern officeholders. Even the Dems here who are in office are nothing you'd recognize as a Democrat anywhere else.

            In the South, it's not just wall-to-wall Rush, Hannity, Savage, Dr. Laura and Fox News, it's the addition of religion to the mix that makes the South so intransigent. You turn on the radio and whatever stations aren't carrying 24 hours of Rush et al (and local Rush clones) are dominated by sports or religious programming. Plus, people actually go to church here; they take religion seriously. So they get a double dose of this quasi-political religious philosophy in the pews on Sunday. And the lingering victim-resentment from the Civil War and Reconstruction is stronger than you would think after 150 years.

            The South needs to get over its damn self. It doesn't need this self-importance indulged. And I don't say that as some damnyankee who thinks it's some icky exotic racist swamp. The south is indeed worth working on, in the way Howard Dean, bless him, is striving to do, but don't count on it yet. It's not worth the soul of the Democratic Party to pander to these states. The best way to win them over is to let nature take its course. Reality has been intruding on the Republican-love for several years now. Bush has been largely responsible for the gains that have been made. A successful Democratic administration may complete the work, and a successful African-American president will have even more impact. But we have to get there first. And we won't get there by the old Republican lite politics and a blurring of differences. We shouldn't "write them off" in the sense of burning any bridges or being blatantly disrespectful or hostile, but don't hurt ourselves elsewhere by trying to fit into a mold that doesn't comport with reality anyway. Lead, don't follow. We'll get more respect that way.

            by Val on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 10:53:57 AM PST

        •  But Honeychile -

          The Democrats haven't won in the South for some time.
          And if the Democrats become Republican Lite - they lose.

          Here's the dope - -
          The Dems got ZERO electoral votes from the South in both 2000 and 2004.  With a Southerner on the ticket each time.  In 1992 and 1996 the Dems got fewer EVs in the South than the Goppers even with a Double Bubba ticket.

          Meanwhile the Democrats have NEVER, EVER run a Westerner on the ticket even though Western votes have been essential to the Democratic coalition.  Never, ever.  The Republicans, on the other hand, have run a Westerner in nearly every race since WWII.  

          Any coincidence that the GOP has dominated the presidency?  No, we shouldn't play one region off against the other - but given the fact that the Dem tickets have been dominated by Southerners with meagre results from the South, perhaps it is time to allow the West its first slot on the ticket, eh?

          by johnnygunn on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:49:49 AM PST

          •  I guess it depends on how you define "Westerner"

            Bob Dole's Kansas is part of the "Prairie" (or sometimes called "The Middle West"), and Ronald Reagan's California is the West Coast.  Both are quite distinct from "the West".  I suppose you could make the point that Cheney was sort of from Wyoming, even though he spent the last 40 years in Washington DC and Texas (the South).  

            I wouldn't call Kansas or California part of "the West", and I certainly wouldn't call any of those three men authentic, bona fine "Westerners".  Phony Westerners, or WINOs, perhaps.  

            Brian Schweitzer, OTOH, is the genuine article.  The rise of such figures in the Mountain West (which is what I think of when people say "West") bodes well for the Democratic Party in the near and distant future.  

            by Big River Bandido on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 10:44:14 AM PST

            •  The West -

              And its definition have long been a subject of debate.

              Although there are subregions in the West, California is, most certainly, part of it.  Mexican American War, Gold Rush, conflict with native peoples, public lands, water issues - the Golden State at the end of the rainbow, from forty-niners to Okies.

              Read Walter Prescott Webb about the Great Plains.  Although the Pyrenees separate France from Spain, the dividing point between Midwest and West is amorphous.  Is it a point beyond which grain agriculture cannot take place without irrigation?  Is it some calculation of population density?  Quite often the 100th meridian is used - roughly the midpoints of the Great Plains states.

              McGovern came from Mitchell, South Dakota - agricultural and Midwestern.  Dole came from Russell, Kansas - astride the border. LBJ from the Texas hill country - not Western.  As for Cheney, he grew up and went to college in Wyoming and represented Wyo in Congress.

              However, Earl Warren, Richard Nixon, Barry Goldwater, Ronald Reagan, George W. Bush, Dick Cheney, John McCain, and Sarah Palin are all Westerners.  You may argue a "this" or a "that" but the overall contrast is pronounced.

              by johnnygunn on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 11:18:27 AM PST

              •  Of those

                I would only put Goldwater in the "true Westerner" camp.  He's the only one who truly had that mentality and maintained it throughout his career.  The others were all career pols who cultivated only the image.

                California certainly may have its founding history to butress its Western image, but its actual history and development diverged from that myth a long, long time ago when modern industries began to take hold.  Certainly there are still large areas of California that retain the aura of '49 (1849, that is).  But San Francisco and Los Angeles are the dominant voices in California politics, and culturally speaking, they are much closer to New York and Miami than they are to Billings or Boise.  

                by Big River Bandido on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 04:42:01 PM PST

                •  Do the Dutch Have to Wear Wooden Shoes -

                  To be Dutch?

                  California is western, period.
                  The city is the late-twentieth century western form.
                  Nearly every western state is dominated by one or two urban areas.

                  Nevada - Las Vegas
                  Colorado - Denver
                  Arizona - Phoenix/Tucson

                  Yet, even in their early years, western states were far more often characterized by urban development that states further east.  Agriculture struggled to establish itself throughout the West - while boomtown "cities" like Virginia City, Nevada and Dawson City, Yukon Terr. popped up overnight.

                  by johnnygunn on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 05:00:37 PM PST

        •  Fully consistent with Whistling Past Dixie

          In order to run a 50 state strategy, the Democratic party has to be responsive to national concerns, and that will force it to take positions that may not play in some of today's southern states (and some nominally "northern" ones, like Ohio and Indiana.

          by DelRPCV on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:59:57 AM PST

        •  Agreed: I'm in NC

          and the contested primary was gold for us here:  we have so many newly registered voters, and so much excitement over Obama's campaign, especially in the ground game and younger voters-- I've never seen anything like it.  

          The fact that Obama even has a campaign office in my very conservative town speaks volumes about what we can do with the neighbor-by-neighbor approach.  It helps that the senate race (Dole-Hagen) is tight and that the national campaigns are spending advertising bucks here.  The 50 state strategy has turned NC from a forget-about-it place to a real pick up opportunity.  And no matter how the state goes on NOv. 4th, the attention from the national parties and the establishment/strengthening of the party volunteer base will continue to keep us in play for future elections.

          by mrsdbrown1 on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:39:01 AM PST

          •  NC Has Been -

            The golden ring on the carousel for 20 years.
            That's one reason Kerry picked Edwards in 2004.
            What happened?

            by johnnygunn on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:45:27 AM PST

            •  Kerry

              Edwards didn't pull in NC for Kerry, BUT many offices in NC are held by Dems. And the demographics get more blue every time some one moves into NC from eleswhere.

              by TBarta on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 10:03:45 AM PST

            •  Edwards

              was actually pretty unpopular here in NC.  Lots of people saw him as too opportunistic-- just using his Senate seat as a campaign launch pad and neglecting North Carolinians back home. The economy here, especially in the larger cities, has remained pretty strong, so that has never been as much of an issue as it might be in other southern states, and didn't give Edwards as much traction as elsewhere. We're also home to a large military presence, and Edwards in general didn't connect at all to that demographic.

              But yes, the change comes a lot from new residents. We're a very, very fast growing area with most new transplants coming from northern Democratic states.   The state has been running with a Democratic state congress and Democratic governor, so it's been gradually "blue-ing" for some time now.  Add to that the idea that every time McCain says "DRILL" that's our offshore he's talking about!  Folks here love them some beach front and coastal properties & tourist trade, and the prospect of oil rigs on the ocean horizon does not sit well locally.  The strain of the Iraq war on the military families is also leading to a shift in party loyalties.  Add to that a large African American population, with many people being inspired by Obama to take part in the process for the 1st time, and yeah, we may yet get to a tipping point here in Carolina!

              by mrsdbrown1 on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 01:39:52 PM PST

  •  interesting. perhaps Ms. Palin can assist

    the south in an AIP / succession from the union movement....

    I live in the South, I would just need a couple of months to sell the house and "get the hell out" - which I plan to do anyway in the spring.

    by left my heart on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:33:57 AM PST

    •  Come to New Jersey!

      You'll love it and reports of the bad smells are grossly overexaggerated :)

      by ekthesy on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:44:22 AM PST

      •  thanks for the invite - I actually have lived

        in Manhattan....and, I have worked in New Jersey....but, my moving plans call for the Lake Placid area or Northern Vermont....

        by left my heart on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:46:44 AM PST

        •  Vermont is fantastic

          Brattleboro or Burlington or Montpelier. Anywhere else is really hard to find a job and is pretty remote, although remote might be what you're getting at!

          Lake Placid is also beautiful but also pretty isolated. And cold. Lake Placid/Saranac Lake in January makes Vermont look like Hawaii. I was up in Saranac Lake a few winters back and the temperature dropped down to 30 below.

          Good luck with the move, don't rent from U-Haul :)

          by ekthesy on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:49:50 AM PST

          •  thanks for the info - I spend a great

            deal of time in Lake Placid/Upper Saranac....and, I would be living there from June-mid Jan, then heading for Florida for the remainder of the winter, mud season and black fly time!

            The type of work that I do doesn't really require that I be in any particular geo area.

            by left my heart on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:56:05 AM PST

        •  If you're a skier, go to Vermont. There is

          a reason Whiteface mountain is dubbed Iceface.  It's still a nice mountain but it is always extremely icy.

          If you're a hiker the Adirondacks are the best.  Grew up in upstate NY and for everyplace i've been, Rockies, Swiss Alps, Alaska Range, Shenandoah, nothing is more homely than the Adirondacks.

          by Ex Real Republican on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:40:48 AM PST

      •  That would depend

        Newark? Totally not overexaggerated. I once pulled over on the NJT to throw up on a hot summer day. :p

        by Eddie in ME on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:59:34 AM PST

•  Thanks DaveV, 'we' needed that!

  by AntKat on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 07:58:40 AM PST

  •  this seems to reinforce the pre campaign meme

    that the gop is  becoming a REGIONAL SOUTHERN party.

    let's help make that a reality  :)

    donate, register voters, make sure they verify they ARE registered and write LTE's asking when the media and the McCain campagn are going to start addressing the real ISSUES American voters want to hear solutions to.

    by KnotIookin on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:24:21 AM PST

  •  this was excellent!!!!

    by fhamme on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:33:40 AM PST

  •  Who do you think you are? Pablano?

    Nice analysis. I agree, much needed perspective.

    by mndan on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:50:47 AM PST

    •  No simulations were harmed in the making

      of this diary.  :)

      Poblano's stuff is great.

      by DaveV on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:54:37 AM PST

•  When you want something so bad

  it's hard to understand how anyone can not see the reason that you see.

  by IowaEdwardsSupporter on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 07:59:17 AM PST

•  Do you know which states

  qualify as South, East, West and Midwest? Where are VA, FL and PA? I would think OH is midwest.

  by Rebecca74 on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 07:59:37 AM PST

  •  Think of the Big Ten Conference

    = Midwest (and to a lesser extent the Big 12 and MAC)

    SEC = South

    ACC & Big East = East

    Mountain West & PAC 10 = West

    by mengelhart on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:03:17 AM PST

    •  LOL, okay

      and for those who don't follow college sports?

      by Muzikal203 on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:38:07 AM PST

      •  See the update in the diary. Thanks!

        by DaveV on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:42:17 AM PST

      •  sorry

        you're SOL.

        ;^P

        by mengelhart on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:03:16 AM PST

  •  Great question. I don't know.

    Anyone?

    by DaveV on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:06:54 AM PST

    •  FLA north of I-4 is the south n/t

      by tidalwave1 on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:13:53 AM PST

      •  Why yes, yes it is.

        We like to call it southern, GA.

        by blueocean on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:24:31 AM PST

      •  You are dead on with that description.

        Many counties in the I-4 corridor are full of low-info, dare I use the word 'red-neck'voters. I know, my brother is one and I lived there for 12 years. I was a strong Clinton supporter back in the 90's and my elementary school-age kids were called "baby killers" by their classmates. What we do have all over that area are retirees and the Repub. views on S.S. and medicare should be used to scare them.

        by imapugdog on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:48:00 AM PST

    •  Panhandle

      The Florida panhandle is the deep south.

      by morbie5 on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:38:53 AM PST

      •  When I lived there....

        ....we called it LA  (Lower Alabama)

        by roxtar on Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 02:24:29 AM PST

    •  Thanks for the update!

      by Rebecca74 on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:43:32 AM PST

  •  We here in Virginia are considered southern

    But not really, especially northern Virginia.

    On the other hand, there's DC -- "All the charm of the north, and all the industry of the south."

    by Catatonia on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:35:40 AM PST

    •  Perssonally I find the North

      much more charming than the South but maybe that is just me.

      by stevej on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:38:40 AM PST

      •  I'm from the South:

        Texas, originally, living in NoVA now.

        And I whole-heartedly agree. I've never been in a nicer place than New England and Upstate New York.

        by Robobagpiper on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:49:09 AM PST

    •  Outside of Northern VA,

      the rest of Virginia is southern.

      Not too long ago, Maryland and Delaware were basically part of the south too. In the last 40 years industry and population growth has turned them into more North Eastern states. However, if you go to southern MD you'll find that it is the south still.

      by morbie5 on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:45:13 AM PST

    •  Maryland once was considered a

      southern state

      by TNforkerry on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 10:46:50 AM PST

  •  The diary has been updated to answer. Thanks!

    by DaveV on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:42:01 AM PST

  •  Yes, with a border w/ an Atlantic seaboard ...

    ... state and a that accepts Atlantic shipping, definitely "MidWest".

    "Industrial Midwest" means "Inland Northeast" in reality, but the media is geographically challenged, so 100 year obsolete terms are much easier.

    by BruceMcF on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:51:06 AM PST

•  Comforting....

  Good news and analysis is like a fresh cup of coffee.  Thanx for the refresher.

  by sp0t on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:00:14 AM PST

•  This is the best diary I've read all week!!

  It really placed the bounce into context!

  Recommended. (This should be on the rec list)

  by jenontheshore on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:00:38 AM PST

  •  Isn't it funny....

    how everyone in the media simply says "poll results!!!" without any analysis as to how the poll was conducted or what the details were or any sort of analysis like this.

    What has happened to the journalism profession?

    by sp0t on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:04:40 AM PST

    •  Chuck Todd understands polls...

      most of the rest of them just read the script in front of them.  they dont have a clue what an internal IS.

      by KnotIookin on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:30:17 AM PST

      •  Good point!

        by sp0t on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:45:23 AM PST

  •  Looks like it won't make the rec list.

    But do feel free to talk about the results and point people to the diary when appropriate.

    Thanks!

    by DaveV on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:12:29 AM PST

    •  Rec list or no, I'm sharing this diary.

      I can already think of a few people whom I want to email this to.  Yours is an important perspective, and we need to get that information out there.  Because growing an 8-point lead in Alabama to an 11-point lead doesn't exactly change the dynamics of a presidential race!

      by Larry McAwful on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:24:19 AM PST

    •  It made it!

      by jenontheshore on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:25:48 AM PST

      •  Cool!

        by DaveV on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:30:40 AM PST

•  This is some very good news.

  Rec this up immediately!

  by madmsf on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:00:39 AM PST

•  That bounce in the independent Midwest over

  both conventions for Obama is sweeet!  

  Those swing state voters in the midwest just made my morning...and this from Gallup. Gallup has been shown in previous years to poll more GOP and skew their numbers...so this is very good news!  

  by SallyCat on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:00:44 AM PST

•  They like her in Big Sky Country, too

  Did you see the latest Montana poll? I guess the moose hunting did it for them.

  by Pazuzu on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:01:03 AM PST

  •  Well....wait a few weeks....the whispering

    and coffee talk among the conservative / independent thinking women is not good for her. Geez, my little sis (51) in Utah and her fellow school teachers are appalled at the Palin pick.

    If Utah women aren't happy...give the MT women a break...they'll see the light!

    by SallyCat on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:07:46 AM PST

    •  Liberal

      School teachers are a little more liberal than the average person, even in Utah. lol

      by morbie5 on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:05:41 PM PST

  •  Yeah!

    Nothing like killing a defenseless mammal to improve your popularity! Imagine if Palin had shot a man in reno just to watch him die? She would be the nominee not McCain!

    by Anne Elk on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:08:41 AM PST

•  Now...That's what I'm talking about.

  I thought this is what the numbers would show! Thanks for doing the homework.

  Now to all of you handwringing chicken littles: All is not lost, people!

  Fight, Donate!

  BO in 'O8

  by trixied13 on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:01:04 AM PST

•  Nice Analysis

  Only problem is that the MSM never reports any of this. I have become entirely convinced based on the coverage of this election that we need more nationalized media conglomerates, more akin to the BBC. Nothing is unfiltered anymore. It's an absolute disgrace, and clearly evidenced by the most recent lipstick outrage.

  by DieHardBlue on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:01:19 AM PST

  •  The media wants a story.

    Because the headline "Candidate X's Lead Grows From 14% to 16%" doesn't sell papers or drive internet hits.

    As to the "balanced" media: that pig is just covered with lipstick...

    by Larry McAwful on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:09:02 AM PST

•  No, no, NO!

  We're doomed, dagnabit!  Why can't you just accept that we are going to lose the election, instead of showing off your fancy "facts" and "statistics based analysis"?

  by DH from MD on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:02:08 AM PST

•  but it's because she's a woman

  

  by tassojunior on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:03:22 AM PST

•  Did you mislabel one of the charts?

  The first two charts say "Change weeks of August 25 to Sept 1" but contain different data.

  Otherwise, very well done.  

  by daemonw on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:03:34 AM PST

  •  nevermind, already fixed

    that was fast

    by daemonw on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:04:53 AM PST

    •  Thanks for noticing! nt

      by DaveV on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:07:53 AM PST

      •  Two Great Poll Analysis Diaries...

        In the span of three days! More mojo to ya.

        But I'm still a bit confused about the headings of your first two data charts. If they're to show post-convention and post-Palin bounces, shouldn't the dates end after Sept 4 and include the data from Sept 7?

        I have a feeling that I'm missing something here, but I may not be the only one. Then again, maybe I'm just nit-picking because of envy...

        by OnlyWords on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:53:33 AM PST

        •  Bad headings...

          The data are for the weeks of Aug 18-24, Aug 25-31 and Sept 1-7.  So even though it says Sept 1, it includes the whole week.

          See the raw data, and you'll find the math is pretty simple addition and subtraction

          by DaveV on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:56:07 AM PST

•  It's interesting.

  Thanks.

  by citizen31 on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:04:20 AM PST

•  Nice analysis...

  Hopefully this will calm the masses. Obama is doing just fine. We're in perfect position!

  by First Amendment on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:04:44 AM PST

  •  Lots of work to be done -- but yes,

    we're in good position to win this.

    by DaveV on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:08:15 AM PST

•  Very encouraging. All the same...

  ...I'm getting involved with the Obama campaign starting this coming Saturday.  Even though there's no cause for panic at this time, we still need to work on getting him elected!

  Great diary!  Recommended!

  by Larry McAwful on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:06:06 AM PST

•  Validation!

  This is what I was saying yesterday based on some speculation.

  It's good to see some hard-numbers to back up the hypothesis.

  This is good news -- although it still means there's lots of work to do.

  by NotGeorgeWill on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:06:35 AM PST

•  Thanks Dave V, great context!

  by math4barack on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:09:02 AM PST

•  I noticed the same thing...

  when I checked the Gallup poll. Glad someone took the time to diary it.

  It makes sense, too, because Palin's politics play well in the conservative south, but not so well in middle-of-the-road states, which is most of the rest of the country.

  Also, much of McCain's national "lead" (if he actually has one) includes BIG leads in a handful of conservative southern states, plus places like Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, etc. With the possible exception of Ohio, most battleground states are still leaning toward Obama.

  by Jeremy Zilber on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:09:32 AM PST

  •  Remember Too

    The Obama/Biden campaign has not yet begun to hammer McSame/Extremist Barbie on the abortion issue. That should bring a good number of women back to the Democratics fold.

    by CPT Doom on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:15:46 AM PST

•  the west is particularly heartening

  I keep focusing on Colorado and New Mexico....

  This is very encouraging and does help make sense of the national numbers in tandem with the state polls.

  Thanks.

  by dcprof on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:12:04 AM PST

  •  The whole "values"

    discussion took a hit in Colorado with the reality of the "minister of meth", Haggard.
    Hard to say that its is all about values when one of the biggest mega-church folks get caught up...

    by paul94611 on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:14:34 AM PST

  •  I agree.

    I think the west is where this thing can be won.  Colorado, New Mexico, and even Nevada is a possibility.  I'm a little more unsure about the dakotas and Montana, but who knows.

    by bleigh82 on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:15:49 AM PST

  •  Aren't we winning in NM right now?

    by Muzikal203 on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:39:22 AM PST

    •  yes

      by memofromturner on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 10:53:30 AM PST

•  As a resident of

  Marsha Blackburn's TN-7 district I hope that Obama does not waste time & money here.
  These folks are all about fixing the blame rather than fixing the problem.  My neighbors actually believe that the democratic party has been in control of congress since 1800.  (NOT a snark)

  by paul94611 on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:12:16 AM PST

•  sweet

  not to brag, but that's exactly what I predicted here: Interpreting the McCain/Palin Bounce, although I may have been wrong about Ohio.

  by fitz2 on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:17:46 AM PST

•  Great work, DaveV.

  Thank you for presenting this. Very heartening about gains in the midwest and west. Yo' east (I say this as a NYer) what's up with you? Falling for McMaverick crap?!

  by srkp23 on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:20:57 AM PST

•  what puzzles ME is where the 'EAST" bounce

  came from??

  any internals explaining that ?   surely he didnt get a bounce from NY...  where did it come from?  

  by KnotIookin on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:20:58 AM PST

  •  New Jersey ? nt

    by PoliMorf on Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 03:04:03 AM PST

•  I don't call

  them polls. I call them guesses. Which pollster knows how many African American voters will turn out? How many youth voters between 18-24? To paraphrase Bob Dylan, something is happening here and you don't know what it is, do you Mr. Gallup?

  by Red Bean on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:23:15 AM PST

  •  Buffalo Springfield not Dylan

    by BrighidG on Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 02:56:47 AM PST

    •  No, it was Bob Dylan.

      "Ballad of a Thin Man" from the album Highway 61 Revisited: "'Cause something is happening here and you don't know what it is / Do you, Mister Jones?"

      Legend has it that Dylan wrote the song about a clueless reporter from Time magazine who had recently interviewed him.

      by Night Train on Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 04:34:34 AM PST

      •  Thought they was referencing

        "For What It's Worth"

        by BrighidG on Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 09:25:42 AM PST

•  Thanks for an interesting diary

  by PeteGF on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:26:29 AM PST

  •  Sadly

    Speaking from someone who lives in Tom DeLay's old District (now represented by Nick Lampson), I can tell you right now that the South has had a problem with the "Black" thing from day one.

    While it isn't said out loud and directly, the undertones of it are everywhere.

    I still have hope for Texas one day, as even Electoral-Vote.com shows Texas as pink instead of dark Red.....

    We aren't all Racist Rednecks!!!!!

    by MarciaJ720 on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:26:30 AM PST

    •  We'll let you guys vote for McCain

      if you'll give us Rick Noriega in the Senate in exchange... ;)

      by Cali Scribe on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 10:25:50 AM PST

•  + this doesn't take into account the party issue.

  wouldn't that bump things up further for obama?

  ps - don't forget, these are just polls! not reality...

  by fidellio on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:28:01 AM PST

  •  Well, maybe -- but I'm trying

    to capture electoral strategy here.  There may be some funny party weighting going on -- but Obama has to win a plurality of all votes, not just Dem votes.

    by DaveV on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:31:51 AM PST

•  Not Lulled into Complacency. Just Fired Up!

  Thanks for the good news.

  by kefauver on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:28:11 AM PST

•  As an Idahoan

  I am thrilled to see her bounce was nil here. So much for all the talk that Westerners would buy her schtick.

  I'm done worrying about Sarah Palin. The truth is going to win out this time.

  by Red State Rebel on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:32:04 AM PST

•  Unmitigated gall

  She's at their rally right now.  She AGAIN repeated bridge to nowhere line, the day after every single network told American people it's a lie.

  Where on earth do these people get their nerve?

  by Julie Gulden on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:32:09 AM PST

  •  Answer

    trained their followers to respond with Pavlovian faithfulness to certain terms. Say ''conservative,'' and they wag their tails. Say ''liberal'' and they bare their fangs. More to the point, say either and all thinking ceases,

    From another diary today by by Rian Fike here. Enjoy.

    by CcVenussPromise on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:48:03 AM PST

  •  She's a trained puppet who cannot be

    re-programmed. It's great she's still spitting it out.

    It's a tidal wave of lies that is going to drown her and that old man who is hiding behind her.

    by shpilk on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 11:29:34 AM PST

•  As I've writtne elsewhere, the selection of

  Sarah Palin is a clever, if cynical, way to appeal to racism in the U.S.

  Palin provides an out for white people that can't bring themselves to vote for a black man. It lets people that would normally, or begrudgingly, vote for a Democrat, deceive themselves into thinking that they are voting for a fellow redneck instead of allowing their racism dictate their actions.

  by Spud1 on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:32:32 AM PST

  •  I thought she appealed to

    the Fundamentalists more than the racists.  She makes that repuslsive form of conservatism 'respectable' again.  (Kentuckian here.)  She works out for both groups, however, whatever her choice was originally for.

    by Silverbird on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:42:57 AM PST

    •  coincidentally racists and fundies occupy

      a lot of the same real estate... go figure.

      by mollyd on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:49:58 AM PST

    •  Appeal: "small town girl"

      translation from another commenter:

      Any time you hear the phrase "small-town values," you need to understand what it really means:  White, Straight, and Christian.

      by Outcast in the comments here.

      by CcVenussPromise on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:58:15 AM PST

•  Edit your headline

  largely contained to South

  I'm sure ylu meant "confined to South."

  by Frank Palmer on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:33:31 AM PST

•  awesome

  That explains why Obama came out ahead in Colorado. I love being from the west, even if other westerners fear Californians. :P

  by Giodude on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:35:23 AM PST

•  I figured the "bounce" was going to be in

  states where their base is strong (i.e., the south). How much did the pollsters use the South in the polls that had everyone freaking out?

  by Muzikal203 on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:36:39 AM PST

  •  Good question. Probably about 25% of the pop.

    I think the regions are somewhat balanced in terms of population.

    by DaveV on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:46:01 AM PST

•  McCain still doing jack in Oregon

  Despite claims of a bounce, I have yet to see a single campaign ad from either side, which given that McSame trails by 8-10% here in Oregon says he doesn't think he can win...

  I've been in a swing state two cycles in a row, not sure how to feel about not being in one anymore...

  by skywaker9 on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:38:21 AM PST

  •  Actually Oregon will probably be close...

    We're just now starting to see McCain signs here as well.  Obama signs and bumper stickers have been around for months but people are coming out of the woodwork now for him.  It was close here in 2000 and 2004, so we need to get to work.  Support Merkley and you'll help Obama too.

    by VJM on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:53:15 AM PST

  •  McCain's toast in OR but we're not lettin up

    and many are campaigning for Merkley for Senate, who has a tough incumbent to beat in Smith.

    Anyone want to do some phonebanking? The Merkley campaign is about to set up out-of-state automatic speed dial that picks numbers statewide.

    by bob zimway on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:56:24 AM PST

•  miles to go...

  we can't get complacent.

  donate, phone bank, door to door. everybody needs to do what they can.

  even though I live in a area that gave Kerry 92% of the vote in 04 I am still going to do whatever I can.  

  its a marathon and we can't fall back at the last minute and get overtaken.

  by db27 on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:39:39 AM PST

•  Midwest roolz yay

  seriously the Midwest is the most anti Iraq war region, suspect that there is a connection.

  by stevej on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:40:52 AM PST

•  Thanks DaveV. Signed up to canvass in Indiana &

  GOTV for November.  Take action everybody!  Tipped & Rec'd.

  by jdmorg on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:42:18 AM PST

  •  It would be lovely to get Indiana.

    Ground game there will be crucial.  Good luck!

    by DaveV on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:52:21 AM PST

•  That's mixed news, actually.

  The "South" ioncludes North Carolina, Florida and Virginia. Three states Obama was hoping to pick up.

  It also means that Senate races in the South suc as the Hagan/Dole race are in jeapoardy now. Especially that one. Picking palin may have saved Elizabeth Dole from defeat.

  by Hesiod on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:46:40 AM PST

•  Thanks DaveV

  These are the kinds of details we need.

  No Drama. Deep Breath.

  Repeat.

  by SJLeonidas on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:48:12 AM PST

•  will the msm report this?

  I wonder of the network analyists can decern this for themselves or if they'll even report good news like this.

  by cacamp on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:50:41 AM PST

  •  At some point...

    They will decide that the new meme is that Obama is the real comeback kid.

    by DaveV on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:53:07 AM PST

•  The Obama people need to push this hard!

  Point out that John MCcain basically got a boost in states he was going to win anyway. That Obama is ahead of McCain in every region of the country except the South, and that he is on track to win the election in the electoral college.

  by Hesiod on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:51:14 AM PST

  •  uh, no

    Obama does not say that some states are unimportant.

    by flight2q on Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 03:11:04 AM PST

•  They can always count on the Ignorance Belt

  ...but I don't think it'll be enough this time around.

  by Tinyboss on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:52:03 AM PST

•  State Results are Crucial

  When all we had were the national results, showing WcCain +1 over Obama after both conventions, there was reason to worry (even if not reason to "panic", because polls are descriptive, not predictive, and full of flaws). Now that we've got regional breakdowns, we can see less reason to worry, because each state requires only "50%+1" to win, and 60:40% state victories are a waste, "making the rubble bounce", rather than spending the extra resources converting losing states to winners.

  (Of course, bigger margins make governing more possible, rather than deeply dividing the country in each state, as Republicans have shown us in every way, but we're focusing on victory, the way Republicans do, for a change.)

  So when do we get the per-state breakdowns? I want to see that Electoral College map light up Blue as a spruce for the next 55 days.

  by DocGonzo on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:53:24 AM PST

•  Good news here

  This election is going to be won in the West and Midwest.  Colorado, Nevada, Michigan, and Ohio are the key states.  Take two of them and we win.

  by NMMatt on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:54:35 AM PST

  •  NV + CO

    is not enough if Obama loses MI + OH. MI (+NH) + any of the other three you mention would do it.

    So, mind you, would FL all on its own.

    by distantcousin on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:11:13 AM PST

    •  Michigan is the only MUST WIN state for Obama

      by rhodeislanddemocrat on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:25:00 AM PST

    •  Good point

      I'm heartened though that at the height of McCain's bounce, Obama appears to retain his lead in MI.  I think we're in a good position.

      by NMMatt on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 11:38:32 AM PST

•  Rasmussen shows Obama one point ahead

  when leaners are included. McCain's bounce is fizzling out pretty fast.

  by Zoltan on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:58:08 AM PST

•  New WV poll 44 M, 39 O

  If anyone has time to put up a proper diary on it (via TPM Electiion Central).

  By Blankenship, who is a respected pollster there.

  Details here Gap Between McCain and Obama narrowing in WV.

  -- Stu

  by sdf on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:58:43 AM PST

  •  Wow!

    The most telling number in that story, to me, is that only 55% of Democrats in WV say they'll vote for Obama.

    Who could turn that around? Hillary? Robert Byrd? Biden?

    by ipsos on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:32:56 AM PST

    •  I would think

      that any or all of the three people you name would be excellent choices to campaign there.

      -- Stu

      by sdf on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:43:37 AM PST

    •  What percentage of Dems in WV voted

      for Kerry.

      WV Dems have voted Republican on the national ticket since 2000 (and 1996 was a squeaker - 1% if I recall).

      by aisling on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 11:08:46 AM PST

•  southerners must be impressed by secession talk

  by fivefouranonymous on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:01:26 AM PST

  •  If we could only

    get them to do it again...no one would stop them this time:-)

    by FiddleDeeDee on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:04:15 AM PST

    •  Uh....

      yea... a few people would think about stopping them.
      Like, oh... the African-American population.

      by RElland on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:19:41 AM PST

    •  The reason the South was "stopped"

      the first time is because wealthy Republicans couldn't abide "losing" that fine real estate - the South held vast natural resources like virgin timber, had a considerably longer growing season, and had MUCH more coastline, with access to the Gulf of Mexico and points south.

      Woe be unto anyone living on land that Republicans covet, be it Southerners, Native Americans out West, Iraqis...  They WILL "railroad" your ass - that's who originally founded the party, after all: steel, railroad and other northern industrial interests.

      by Prognosticator on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:11:45 PM PST

      •  no

        It was all about slavery.

        by Jacob Bartle on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 02:33:00 PM PST

        •  It was about a vast number of things

          One of the Republican constituencies were the working class whites who found it hard to get a job because it was easier for potential employees to buy slaves.

          Slavery was definitely part of it, as was preservation of the Union and the urbanization of the North.

          by William S on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:42:29 PM PST

  •  it sucks

    by TNforkerry on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 10:58:26 AM PST

•  The Irony

  The Republican Party was basically founded as a Northern only party, they didn't even bother with the South.

  by Gangster Octopus on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:02:58 AM PST

  •  More irony

    An even greater irony is that in the past the democratic party was always the "all inconclusive party" that had a northern liberal wing and a southern conservative segregationist wing.

    by morbie5 on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:16:27 PM PST

•  I'm glad McCain only shored up his base w/ Palin,

  while Obama got some real help in swing states with Biden.

  The re-energized fundamentalist base puts southern states like North Carolina and Georgia out of reach for Obama.  And maybe Palin will help take Montana and the Dakotas off the board too.  

  The good news is that Obama has many paths to victory without any of those states.  And it's not clear that Palin will be any help in the most critical swing states like Ohio, Michigan, Colorado, New Mexico, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Florida.  

  by SunWolf78 on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:07:51 AM PST

•  South Bounce

  Best news I have heard all week. Leave it to the MSM and thank God for DailyKos. Obama 309 Electoral Votes.

  by Sode on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:12:14 AM PST

•  Convention timing

  seems there is some advantage to going second.  

  by David in Burbank on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:12:25 AM PST

  •  Probably true, but Bush's convention bounce

    faded away in 2004 -- and it was much larger than McCain's.

    So, timing may matter temporarily -- the GOP gets the first post-convention news cycle.

    by DaveV on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:15:18 AM PST

•  South is full of voodoo Christians like Palin n/t

  by quantumspin on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:14:00 AM PST

  •  HRed for religious bigotry

    by Ohiobama on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:32:33 AM PST

    •  i think you're a little quick on the trigger

      have you ever been to "voodoo christian" church? i have!

      by memofromturner on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 10:57:46 AM PST

    •  I agree.

      And voodooism (now, generally mixed with Christianity) is primarily a black religion, and is strong all over the Caribbean.

      by Prognosticator on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:17:44 PM PST

  •  Abso-fucking-lutely.

    I'd have to tell stories about going to Sunday school at a Baptist church.

    Wack jobs.....

    Everything ties to going to Hell.

    Everything.

    And the commitment to college football exceeds the commitment to breathing.

    And I do love the music.................

    "Voodoo Christians" is perfect. Palin and her Santuary States After the Rapture is beyond wack job.

    by vets74 on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:59:43 AM PST

  •  The preachers in the Southern Baptists churches

    will be telling their congregations how to vote.
    The snake handlers are in East Tennessee.
    I am Episcopalian. Usually we are pretty liberal but we are way out numbered by the nuts.
    1 out of 10 cars parked at Walmart have bumper stickers that read Jesus is my co-pilot or in case of rapture  this vehicle will be unmanned.

    by TNforkerry on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 10:57:51 AM PST

  •  Come visit NH, I'll show you real racists, up

    close and personal.

    It's not a regional thing.

    by shpilk on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 11:25:54 AM PST

•  Thanks for this

  Glad to see Obama didn't lose much in a place he was going to win anyway

  by ehalperin on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:16:53 AM PST

•  Nice to see an actual diary

  by rhodeislanddemocrat on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:23:34 AM PST

•  if the american south were a country

  it would resemble basically a third world country with white people.

  outside of a few enclaves of  innovation and tolerance in nc, virginia it is
  slacker region

  by maxnyc on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:31:00 AM PST

  •  I bet you win over a lot of voters

    with such sweet talk.

    by Ohiobama on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:34:55 AM PST

  •  Ever been to...

    Florida? Atlanta? Little Rock?

    by rian90 on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:46:03 AM PST

    •  there are blue pockets everywhere!

      in fact you go about 3 hours outside of nyc and you will find red america in new york state--minus the religious fanaticism of course

      by maxnyc on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 10:10:02 AM PST

      •  The red-state/blue-state divide is arbitrary

        If you look at county-by-county results you see that the cities tend to be strongly D and the vast empty areas around tend to be strongly R.  Democratic areas tend to be 8 times as population-dense as Republican areas.

        by William S on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:44:11 PM PST

•  Thanks for the diary!

  Personally, I've never lost faith that Obama will win this election, and while I know that dismissing others' concerns can be dangerous, this is a pleasing affirmation. I am also glad you did not insult people by calling them hand-wringers, chicken-littles, or concern trolls.  

  by angel d on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:34:35 AM PST

•  When's the new Gallup coming out?

  eom

  by OReillysNightmare on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:40:19 AM PST

  •  1pm eastern, every day.

    Today is 48M 43O, still a 5point spread, but McCain is down one from yesterday.

    by DaveV on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 10:24:51 AM PST

•  New Hampshire is a swing state

  And although it doesn't have that many electoral votes, everyone counts.

  New Hampshire has a history of loving McCain.  So saying the East is locked up for Obama is not true.

  NH could easily swing to McCain.

  by CTReformedRep on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:47:46 AM PST

  •  NH...

    I know folks from New Hampshire are saying they think NH will go to McCain. Even strong progressives there are worried.  NH has saved McCain too many times in the past for me to feel safe.

    by VJM on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:55:21 AM PST

    •  Same Here

      That six point swing in the East can probably mostly be attributed to NH.

      We spend time in NH every winter skiing.  We started going there when Vermont became too expensive.

      The difference between the two states is just amazing.   My husband and I have started to refer to it as the "Cheapskate state."

      People there are overly obsessed with taxes, getting everything at the lowest price possible etc.  Even the restaurants are kind of crappy because no one will pay for a truly good meal (we wind up heading into VT all the time).

      Last Winter when I was up there before the primaries GOP placards outnumbered Dem placards by at least 4 to 1.

      The McCain "message" of lower taxes etc., plays well here, even though its a bold face lie.

      by CTReformedRep on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 10:07:36 AM PST

      •  It's a good point. Need to see the state

        polls.

        by DaveV on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 10:25:29 AM PST

  •  This State has changed.

    The Republicans are in serious trouble generically here. Yesterdays primary turnout was miserable: and it was only Republicans battling each other this time.

    Bob Barr and Ron Paul have strong support in the State, which is under reported as well. McCain cannot win here, with Barr and Paul wresting away support.

    My town, which is one of the most red of them all [very affluent] is loaded with Obama signs.

    by shpilk on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 11:16:16 AM PST

•  can we stop calling it "The South"?

  And start calling it what it was and still remains: the Confederacy? Honestly, attitudes down there have only regressed since the Civil War. Calling it "The South" glosses over what a cultural and political drain the entire region has become on the United States -- and by extension -- the entire planet.

  by DavidHW on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:48:02 AM PST

  •  It's not the "Confederacy"...

    ...because the Union defeated the Confederacy in the War Between the States thereby forcing the Confederacy to join the United States of America.

    Many who post here are Southerners (like me) and, despite the political stupidity of the region we live in, we are still part of the United States of America. (And we thank Obama for using this motto as a campaign talking point).

    Bring  up the South on this board, and suddenly that "big tent" meme goes down the crapper.

    Lastly, lest anybody forget, recent Democratic heroes like Gore, LBJ,  Clinton & Carter are from the South.

    Think where the Democratic party would be right now without the aforementioned quartet.

    by wyvern on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 10:04:27 AM PST

•  very informative and insightful diary.

  by chriscom on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:48:51 AM PST

•  Don't worry. White trash are fickle.

  The "Palin Bounce" will get its time in the shitter.

  Nice thing is that McCain is dumb enough to hitch his chances to one fundie, small town mayor.

  That's what Sarah "Spears-Ingraham-Stevens" Palin is all about.

  White Trash gits name recognition working as a sportscaster. Gits elected mayor and learns to do lobbyist-bribery, big time.

  Lynne Spears + Laura Ingraham + all of the Cheneys.

  Family values + Wackjob mottos + Insanity.

  And McCain likes it that he got a poll bounce.

  Fuckin' -- once upon a time -- idiot.

  by vets74 on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:50:25 AM PST

  •  Nice going...

    Let's piss off the white trash and make them even less likely to vote for us.  Do you really think we can win with AAs, white collar intellectuals and progressive women?  This is why we needed Hillary on the ticket.  

    by VJM on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:57:07 AM PST

    •  Very, very few White Trash tune in to dkos.

      Anyway, you think any of them are gonna vote fer a nigger ???

      Much less that any of them would do it fer Hillary ?

      What'll happen, best case, is that the trash will git pissed at McCain and/or Palin and not vote.

      The South is gonna end up 50:40 for McCain with Virginia going for Obama.

      Its all the demographics......

      LPANITWH !

      by vets74 on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 10:15:05 AM PST

  •  btw vets74...watch the comments...cause I grew up

    trailer park white trash. And it still pisses me off when people use that term.

    So...kill the stereotypes...call them low info voters if you want. But white trash? b.s.

    by SallyCat on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 10:01:53 AM PST

•  Fired up the base though

  ours ;)

  I was certain this had gotten him virtually none of the voters he actually needed, just a lot of noise and thunder from the right. Who weren't voting for Obama anyway, North, South, East or West be they.

  Seeing the new energy from the other side though, the realization of just how serious this is with the prospect of a dominionist who wants the rapture to come soon -- priceless.

  It's weird really, McCain has done nothing but move far to the right since this thing started, and it was the last way he was going to win. And no, daily tracking polls based on convention bounces especially mean zilch.

  by TimeZoned on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:55:50 AM PST

•  mostly crackers renewing their vows to the

  Republican party.

  by LRT on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:58:04 AM PST

•  brilliant stuff

  perspective ! Yeah!

  at the end, national polls mean nothing, lectoral votes do. National polls are just to get viewers to watch news shows now.

  Keep writing

  by sageman on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 10:00:46 AM PST

•  interesting diary

  could it be that Palin has boosted McCain primarily among the "wrong" groups - the religious right, concentrated in the south, where he is already going to win anyway?

  I'll be very interested to see the Rasmussen poll  of NM later today. Al Giordano has a theory that Palin may go down badly among Hispanics, in which case we might hope to see a better result for Obama than in Rasmussen's poll of MT yesterday.

  For comparison, Rasmussen last polled NM on August 20th and gave Obama a +4 lead. I'm hoping he will hold that kind of level or even improve it slightly.

  by distantcousin on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 10:03:49 AM PST

•  If the confederacy decides it wants

  to secede from the union again I say we let them go this time. The south is truly a lost cause.

  by peckcheck on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 10:06:30 AM PST

•  Not surprising news RACE AND GENDER is

  what appeal to not just the south but across
  other part of America.
  Still early key is how poll look doing World series

  by RomeyDa on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 10:07:33 AM PST

•  today's Gallup has McCain by 5

  I'm sick of waiting for that poll to drop.  By 538's figures, this means McCain has another plus EIGHT yesterday.  Come on, America ... wake the fuck up already.

  by Tuffie on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 10:11:50 AM PST

  •  Looks like a McCain bounce in East and Midwest

    Sorry to rain on the parade, but it looks like McCain also got a bounce in the East and Midwest, even though the diarist claims it is limited to the South.

    I think it is important to face reality if we are going to have a chance of winning the election.  

    McCain's smear tactics are working.  We need to face them rather than deny them.  

    by diana04 on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 10:25:41 AM PST

    •  over the two conventions

      there is also a small move towards McCain in the east, but not in the mid-west. However this isn't going to help him except possibly in NH.

      by distantcousin on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 10:32:14 AM PST

    •  Er, come again?

      You write:

      even though the diarist claims it is limited to the South.

      Here's what the diarist wrote

      The Palin bounce was largely contained to the South (+11) -- states that Barack does not need to win the election.  It was also fairly substantial in the East (+6), but the East is largely locked up for Obama.  The bounce was smallest in the crucial Midwest (+4) and nil in the West.

      Did I miss something? Did you miss something?

      by TimeZoned on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 10:42:59 AM PST

    •  In the midwest

      From August 18-24, Obama was down 1 point.  From September 1-7, Obama was up 6 points.  That is a net gain.  That is reality.  

      by mark louis on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 11:00:42 AM PST

  •  He did drop 1 point today.

    But Barack did too.  Still, McCain's hit his ceiling -- and it's a lower ceiling than Barack's.

    See the RCP chart in the diary -- you'll see why ceilings are important.

    by DaveV on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 10:27:09 AM PST

•  Forget geography; North Carolina

  is not part of "the South." NC is going BLUE.

  by MsWings on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 10:23:03 AM PST

  •  Let's hope so.

    At the very least, let's kick Liddy Dole and Robin Hayes out.

    by William S on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:46:39 PM PST

    •  I'd add Howard Coble to the list, but

      I'm not optimistic.

      But Liddy & Robin have got to go!

      by MsWings on Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 03:58:40 AM PST

•  McCain ties Obama on Intrade

  for the first time today: 49.5 - 49.5.

  No, we are not "DOOMED!" Yes, the race is a dead heat. This is no longer a media concoction.

  by IvanR on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 10:34:26 AM PST

  •  Nah

    "Dead heat" on Internet trading hardly means anything bout the outcome. You can tell because whatever it said about the outcome last week is different from this week, and will be different the next week again.

    When electoral votes look anything close to split between the two, then I'll call it that. They don't right now.

    by TimeZoned on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 10:49:58 AM PST

    •  EVs are getting close

      Nate at FiveThirtyEight now has it at about 275 O to 262 McCain, with Obama victory probability at 52%.  

      Given that some states haven't been polled since the convention, I'd bet a full snapshot as of today would look a bit worse (though will improve as the bounce falls back).

      by dburbach on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 11:13:33 AM PST

•  By the way

  The Palin bounce was largely contained to the South (+11) -- states that Barack does not need to win the election.  It was also fairly substantial in the East (+6), but the East is largely locked up for Obama.  The bounce was smallest in the crucial Midwest (+4) and nil in the West.

  A four-point bounce in the Midwest, being the only one that matters here at all, is well within the expected convention bounce for any candidate. Bottom line is that when the bounce fades, all of this noise amounted to absolutely zero change in the real race from before the conventions. As expected.

  by TimeZoned on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 10:52:33 AM PST

  •  And it's not really fair to look at one bounce.

    If you capture both conventions by comparing the week of Aug 18 to the week of Sept 1 (my second table), then McCain actually lost 7 points of ground to Obama in the Midwest and 2 points in the West.

    by DaveV on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 10:56:48 AM PST

•  I'd like to see Obama go aggressively

  after the Southern voters now. The 50 State strategy is working, and he should go right after McCain's strengths.

  I'm serious about this.
  Take him on in NC, in GA, in FL.

  Break it wide open, and crush McCain/Palin as the hollow empty things they are.

  by shpilk on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 11:12:37 AM PST

•  Now I am really confused. This diary seems

  willing to accept the data generated by Gallup when another diary posted only this morning says that Gallup and other pollsters are conspiring to falsify the results.  Which is it?

  by hestal on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 11:14:48 AM PST

  •  Comparing Gallup data to Gallup data

    can still be helpful.  If the methods are consistent (even if they are consistently bad), then looking at changes tends to "difference out" those methodological flaws.

    I personally don't believe that pollsters are conspiring at all.  But I do believe that there are some weird things going on with party ID weighting that are probably a temporal anomaly -- and may be skewing results.

    by DaveV on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 11:45:00 AM PST

•  Look at the West for a moment

  California, Oregon and Washington will remain blue.

  New Mexico is strongly trending towards Obama.

  Colorado, Nevada and, yes, even Montana are very realistic pickups for Obama.

  Even in Western states where Obama won't win, with the exception of Utah Obama has a decent shot at getting within 10 points of McCain, and therefore forcing McCain to spend time and money in those states. If McCain is put in a position where he has to skip an event in Ohio or Florida to go to someplace like Boise, Idaho - or even Phoenix - that's huge.

  By my count that's a potential pickup of 22 EVs for Obama over Kerry, and we're not even looking at anything east of Denver.

  by W Lane Startin on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 11:22:17 AM PST

•  Thank you for this

  I was wondering.

  This isn't a "convention bounce". It's not a "Palin bounce".

  It's "the fundie bounce".

  The right wing religious extremists convinced McSame that he had no chance without them, and so he accepted the VP candidate that they (and only they) vetted.

  McCain and the GOP are already prisoners of the extreme religious right. We will be, if we allow them to win.

  This may easily be the most important election in any of our lifetimes.

  by Timbuk3 on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 11:32:52 AM PST

•  Blue Collar Voters: McCain 49 Obama 40

  Anyone else see this poll being paraded on MSNBC? I find it interesting they would site this poll when it has a MoE of 9.3%!! Boy does this media love a good "horse-race". What a bunch of crap.

  by bRan on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 11:50:48 AM PST

  •  MoE of 9.3%?

    Sounds like an Idaho poll. I don't know what's worse, the fact the media uses that sort of "data," or the fact people actually pay good money for polls like that in the first place.

    by W Lane Startin on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 11:55:08 AM PST

•  That there "Palin bounce"

  Is real. To wit,

  -It put Alaska out of reach for Obama.
  -It shored up states which everyone thought McCain would win anyway. Too bad for McCain that in the Electoral College system a win by one vote is the same as a win by 100,000.

  Meanwhile, Obama has been pulling away in Iowa and New Mexico - both Bush states in 2004 -  and according to the latest state polls is leading in three other Bush '04 states: Nevada, Colorado and North Dakota (North Dakota!?!? How'd that get in there?).

  As for McCain, he's made virtually no inroads in Kerry '04 states. Indeed if he's not careful, he may have a fight on his hands to keep Texas and Arizona, two states he shouldn't even have to think about.

  I think it's very significant that Obama is leading and over the magic 270 mark on the Electoral-vote.com map WITHOUT the aid of Ohio or Florida. I don't think Kerry was ever in that position, or Gore.

  by W Lane Startin on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 11:51:55 AM PST

•  Palin bounce in the South

  Whaddan effing surprise.  

  This is so frustrating and exasperating for me, born and raised in the Deep South.  I know the prevailing mind-set down there.  I wish I didn't.

  My family's reaction to the Palin nomination:

  "Oh, we're so excited!  She's just perfect!  We are just so pleased!"

  Ugh.  I'll be there from my very-comfortably-blue home state to visit later this month.  I am not looking forward to this trip now.  

  I'm seeing a repeat (totally) of the strife, vituperative vitriol, and petty taunts that I, as a progressive Democrat, had to endure during the 2000 and 2004 elections (and during all 8 years of the Clinton era).  My family also takes it very personally that we Dems in the family (definitely a minority) just won't kowtow and accept their Rethuglican dominance and righteousness.  So we deserve personal derision for our political convictions.  (But like all Rethugs, also refuse any reasonable, logical debate on the issues, or to research or accept any facts that contradict their illusions.)

  The whole culture in the South is like this.  Why does it have to be so ign'ert in the Southern states?  I wish I knew.  I barely escaped at a young age.  My whole Klan resides there, still, all within 3 miles of each other.

  They're just waiting for me to show up so they can shriek "PALIN!" in my face at every opportunity.  I just don't know, given all the factors I listed above, how to counter this moose shit.

  by sockpuppet on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 11:53:23 AM PST

  •  Sockpuppet,

    I just posted almost the exact same thing.  I live in the south and although it has many many great things about it, this is definately the worse part.  The racism and low-information voter is upsetting when trying to converse with people. The good news is my mother, in her 80's, is a big Obama supporter and there are many others.  Just sadly not enough to outweigh the "dumb and dumber" voters.

    There are many progressive people in the south but it is slow to change.  I'm hopefu however that one day it will be different.

    by Kyman on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 11:58:39 AM PST

  •  dont go home then! Yikes

    I wish you didnt have to put up with that (I have some family members like this - they is gun toting redneck and racist to the core - and they live in Illinois).

    by nika7k on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:19:54 PM PST

    •  I wish I didn't have to go home to the South

      Especially not so close to the election.  

      But I have to go.  My parents are seriously ill, both of 'em, so I must go to see them before it may be too late.  (At least I'm not expecting any political drivel whined at me from them, not this time.)

      But I can't say I'm not stressing about this trip now.  (Okay, so I was feeling confident and maybeeee a little smug about being there when I made the reservations for travel a month ago.  I was sure McSame was gonna choose Romney (despised in the South because he's a Mormon) or Polenty (who??) as his veep.  I woulda had reason to be, ah, "confident" while I was there.  The Klan mighta even listened to my views, if that had happened.)

      Nope.  It's Palin-mania down in the swamps and bayous where I'm from.  Hopefully the black folk in our region will hold strong and show up to vote in November.  (I did poll-watching there in the 2006 election in areas that were known to have voter harassment and voting machine irregularities on 2000 and 2004.  Proud to say my district had not a single report of problems.)

      I need to gird up.  This is an oportunity to wade into the morass of "low-information voters" and spread information about Obama-Biden.  I'm just not sure how to get past the obstinacy and entrenched racism.

      by sockpuppet on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:39:18 PM PST

      •  low information is letting them off the hook

        we should call a spade a spade - they are not low information - they know 100% of what they need - Jesus and guns.

        I have no patience and I cut no slack.  If your a racist pig, own up to it.  

        I have stood up to my racist relatives (was quaking inside and out, he had his fully automatic machine gun he had brought with him to GA ON VACATION .. ) but not because I figured I would make a difference but because I could not stand by as my mom made apologies about my black friends.

        Basta - Enough (whipping hand as you should when you say Basta)

        I will be thinking of you and hope your mom and dad get better!

        by nika7k on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:45:44 PM PST

        •  Thanks, Nika

          I'll remember what you said there when I find myself in the (often bewildering, like "down the rabbit hole) thick of the mooseshit and Spanish moss (and up to my ankles in alligators, which sometimes really happens there!).

          Be thinking of me and look for some of my possibly S.O.S. despairing posts here during that visit!  

          Thanks for the good wishes.

          by sockpuppet on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:55:17 PM PST

          •  heh, will keep an eye out

            Try not to provoke (just like you shouldnt provoke an aligator) and maybe you should remind them that Jesus was a community organizer.

            If it doesnt work on the youngins, perhaps the older relatives will feel some shame and then open up a little.

            Try to stay cool!

            by nika7k on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 01:45:52 PM PST

  •  Unqualified white trash?

    Yeah, I guess she is perfect for a certain group of voters.

    by irishhawkeye33 on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:44:34 PM PST

  •  I can barely...

    contain my outrage every time I surreptitiously log into my 72-yo Florida Panhandle living dad's email to check out the latest fundie insanity making the rounds. The "Sex Ed for Kindergartners," though...if I see anything coming around about that I don't think I can stop myself mass responding to the whole vicious bunch of 'em.

    by ladyv on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 03:18:22 PM PST

•  This is a reflection of several factors

  The southern area is "boosting" McCain's numbers because many southern women are "thrilled" with Palin.  I have seen this for the past week...democratic friends who I know were looking for an excuse to openingly support McCain (and not have to admit their racism)...Palin gave them that out.  

  When I question them about their opinion of her, they say "well she's a woman"...they support her because of that alone with little to no understanding of her policies.  What they won't say is "well he's black and I wouldn't support him if he was the only person running"...It is embarrassing and I feel sorry for them.

  This I believe is a southern thing.  And it is directly connected to low-information voters and rasicm in this part of the country.  But as far as I'm concerned, this doesn't help McCain in the least because he was most likely winning these states anyway.

  The good news is given Obama's numbers actually went up in the west and midwest, it gives me hope that there are informed voters who will vote this issues and what is best for the country.

  HOPE in the form of information, smart voters and seeing McCain for what he really is...An old white guy that has flipflopped, is out for the rich guy and now has picked a women to hide behind....Nice Going McCain...lol

  by Kyman on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 11:53:34 AM PST

  •  Ultimately I don't think it'll matter

    This election will be decided in places like Reno, Nevada, and Pueblo, Colorado, not the South. I've been saying that for months.

    The shift in politics we're seeing in large parts of the Intermountain West simply cannot be understated.

    by W Lane Startin on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 11:59:49 AM PST

    •  We Southern progressives

      hope you are right.  Seriously.

      by sockpuppet on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:04:05 PM PST

      •  I saw an interesting analysis

        by John King (yeah, it was surprising) using his big fancy map.

        He was stating that Ohio will be won by Obama if he can win the Cincinnati/Hamilton County area.  I encourage all Progressive Southerners trapped hopelessly in a red state (KY, WV, MS) to get our butts to Cincy and help out.  Winning Ohio would be
        the last straw on McCain's back and that is where we "progressives" can really have an impact.

        Who's with me?  Call, travel there, knock on doors..donate, send food to workers, etc.  Whatever you can do..

        by Kyman on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:11:09 PM PST

        •  Gotta get Catholics on board.

          Cincinnati is a bigtime Catholic area.  Hope the Bishops keep their noses out of the raise.

          by DaveV on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:31:21 PM PST

    •  Reno?

      I think you're wrong with that.  I live in Las Vegas, NV and I think this city has major influence as well.  Some may want to believe that it's liberal down here, but we have many conservative Mormons.  I think NV would have definitely gone to the Republicans if he had picked Romney.  But he really missed that mark.  Oh well...

      by Medina Mahmoud on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:24:56 PM PST

      •  You bet

        Clark County trends Democratic, but not by much. While it's true an overwhelming win in Clark carries Nevada regardless of what happens elsewhere in the state, the more likely path to a Democratic win in Nevada is through Washoe County. Kerry won in Clark County in '04, but had he won in Washoe too Nevada would have gone blue.

        by W Lane Startin on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 02:37:05 PM PST

•  The South

  I really don't understand the South.  Many of them I think focus only on social issues, because economically they don't do too well.  I'll be damned if Obama loses this election, because of the South.  

  by Medina Mahmoud on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:20:56 PM PST

  •  It isn't a popular vote election, so the South

    won't cause him to lose.

    by DaveV on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:32:03 PM PST

    •  ...and Florida is still in play

      Caribou Barbie has some serious negatives with Florida voters, and running the ground game in Florida will be VERY expensive for McSame, whereas Obama already has a good infrastructure in place there.

      We can let the south go, but Florida is a prize potentially within our grasp.

      by Mr Tentacle on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:44:27 PM PST

•  It looks like the biggest swing for McCain

  is from younger women.  So these are very religious women who probably would stay home rather than vote McCain or Obama.  This poll shows that McCain failed to attrack older white women, who are PUMA's.

  by kanuk on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:24:36 PM PST

•  Time to pull out

  http://rednecks4obama.com/...

  and "Fergit, Hell! Republicans = Yankees !" bumperstickers...

  by Prognosticator on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:26:25 PM PST

•  Hey look everybody!

  It's someone actually doing some journalistic investigating!  Nice work, Dave.  It's good to know that someone is actually looking at this stuff and analyzing it.  Any chance you could show the media how to do this "magical" analysis thing you do?      

  by Capn Sassy Jas on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:43:13 PM PST

  •  With any luck, maybe they read here now

    and then.

    by DaveV on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:50:07 PM PST

  •  the sooner we realize

    that what they do is essentially show business, not journalism, the less crazy we'll all be.

    It's like asking a clown why he isn't doing nuclear physics. He would just stand there, confused, honking his horn pathetically every few seconds as an attempted answer.

    by TimeZoned on Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 02:59:00 AM PST

•  If the GOP wants to operate

  as a regional southern party, that's fine with me.

  by irishhawkeye33 on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:45:38 PM PST

•  The REAL Palin Bounce

  ...  is the base.  They lust for her.  The stats presented here, showing the greatest bounce coming from the south supports this.

  The indies will turn off on Sarah due to the very real possibility that McCain will not complete a first term.  The thought of a President Palin will be frightening once the indies learn more about her record.  

  This is coming, and this is happening.  The real bounce will occur later, and will be in the negative direction.

  Shameless diary pimp-
  Listen Up Pundits- The REAL Palin Bounce: w/ POLL

  by Vanne Garden on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 12:46:33 PM PST

•  The polls

  I think it's important to remember that McCain just had the best week he's going to have in the course of this campaign, yet he's neck-and-neck with Obama.  His ground operation is a joke compared to ours.  My gambling money is on Obama/Biden.

  Onward !

  by Eagleye on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 02:00:20 PM PST

•  Of course her biggest fan base is in the South.

  Now there's going to a shortage of bleach, starch and Kerosene in good ole boy country. Her crowd wants to look it's best for the next rally, especially after the cross is lit.

  by geez53 on Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 03:53:53 AM PST

•  On the plus side...

  ...when you look at pollster.com, you see that Obama's "strong" total very nearly equals McCain's total of "strong" and "leaner" states.

  Not that that's any guarantee. But ---

  This is the best week his stupid campaign is going to have between now and November. And if the election were to be held today, it looks like Obama would win it.

  But for the 50+ days left, independant voters will be reminded of McCain's positions and policy ideas, and Palin the Unready will be forced to speak for herself. Neither of these will help McCain.

  by Greasy John Doth Keel the Pot on Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 06:53:19 AM PST