Posted this, and realized that it really needed to be a diary...
You know, it's really been fun
watching the Republican assumptions and strategy about this election implode....
There are so many of them, I can only list a few...
1) Underfunded Dem Candidate. They just knew that they would be facing an opponent hobbled by matching fund limits..They just counted on Dems opting for that...after all, how else would anyone survive a primary battle with nine opponents without matching funds? And they just knew that we Dems would punish anyone who turned them down..feeling any pain yet, Dean and Kerry?
Their strategy: raise too much money for Dems to counter at the same time choke off what they felt was the source of big money by making corporate contributors give the maximum. Then, while the Dem candidate struggled to stretch limited funds, they would flood the airways in March with negative ads, giving the knockout punch to the Dems, and cruising to re-election.
Well...Kerry has raised $100 million and counting after Dean showed that it was safe to decline matching funds to the tune of $54 million. So much for underfunded. And Kerry doesn't need to go very much to corporate money. Grass-roots dems are yet to max out across the board. Some folks have yet to give dollar one. Kerry is in more danger of running out of time than money for fundraising.
Uninspiring Candidate. Yes, Kerry isn't Mr. Magnetism, but they really did count on a Daschle or a Gephardt as nominee after Gore dropped out.
This would help compound the money advantage by leading to the absence of interest in the Dem candidate, and a subsequent lack of votes except by the Democratic hard core. Not only that, but they could easily be slammed as "typically liberal" milquetoast types by Rush and the crew. Dean took them by surprise, Kerry they thought that Dems would think his anti-war work in the 1970's toxic to electibility. Clark? a Dem General? Kucinich and the rest even they felt were long-shots. True, they made noises about Hillary, but as Hillary clearly surmised, this wasn't her year anyway. Now Bush faces a pretty strong contender who can at least hold his own, is ok at least, and has a military record.
The culture war has a lot of conscientious objectors. Gay marriage as a wedge issue is being greeted with a big yawn and a barrage of wedding announcements. Abortion galvanizes-the left. Everything else...only their base cares very much, and not all of them. Sure they will try to pass legislation,but little of it will stand up in court for very long, and even less if Congress goes Democratic.
Iraq triumph,with Saddam being paraded down Bagdad's best street? How about insurgents, torture, and the possibility of a General Uprising in the near future? U.S. Soldiers, instead of peacefully patrolling the streets arresting looters will the new Iraqi police, are in a shooting gallery now. So much for playing war hero and liberator. And being a war opponent is looking more and more like being a prophet now.
Spoiler. They just knew that the Democrats would have at least one credible candidate that would try to divide the party after the nominee was chosen. After all, there was Clinton-Brown, Carter and Kennedy, Humphrey and Gene McCarthy. Even Dukakis had his problems with Jackson. But everyone is united this year. Even Kucinich is campaigning more to keep the far left of the Democratic Party in the party than to ruin Kerry's chances. And plan B, Nader? Just think: he announced that he was entering the race in February and still struggles to get on the ballot somewhere under somebody's banner. And Democrats are actively trying to counter his efforts. So much for Democratic implosion.
No need to fund Republicans in lower levels. After all, Democrats would be unable to raise enough funds to make several races competitive, so Delay and others could concentrate of raising money for those handful of races where the Republicans would need to worry about. Thanks to Dean and the Net, some of these Republicans now must look to their own seats.