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Today's Daily Kos tracking poll (conducted by Research2000) continues to show a close race (MoE +/- 3.) McCain and Obama are tied at 47.

Rasmussen has McCain over Obama 48-45 (no change from yesterday), and the others have yet to report. A new Newsweek poll has the candidates at 46-46%

Of great interest are the internals. Look at Sarah Palin's fav/unfav, which is now below 50% (49/40) and worse than McCain's or Obama's (and Biden's, for that matter.) We'll need to keep an eye on those going forward; it's possible the unfavorable press is taking a toll. Assumptions about how this race is turning out may still need to be adjusted to fit the data (not the other way around). Note that we've been much more skeptical of Palin-as-candidate, based on polling numbers. For example, from Newsweek:

Quantifying how much of this McCain bounce is attributable to the Palin pick can be tricky. When asked, only 29 percent of respondents in the poll said Palin makes them more likely to support McCain in the fall, a proportion on par with other running-mate selections in recent history, like Al Gore in 1992 and Jack Kemp in 1996. In fact, 22 percent of voters say Palin makes them less likely to support McCain, more than any other recent vice presidential candidate.

Republican pundits who suggest she's made of teflon may need to reconsider.

Click the link for all the data.

DAILY KOS PRESIDENTIAL TRACKING  POLL 2008

QUESTION: If the election for President were held today, would you vote for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Republican ticket of  John McCain and Sarah Palin, or another candidate? (If "other", pollster respondent who he or she will vote for)

DATE      MCCAIN    OBAMA     BARR      NADER     OTHER     UND

13-Sep    47%       47%        2%        2%        1%        1%

MEN       50%       42%        3%        3%        1%        1%
WOMEN     44%       52%        1%        1%        1%        1%

DEM       13%       83%        1%        1%        1%        1%
REP       91%        6%        1%        0%        1%        1%
IND       49%       42%        3%        3%        1%        2%
OTH       48%       42%        3%        3%        2%        5%

WHITE     58%       35%        3%        2%        1%        1%
BLACK      4%       93%        0%        0%        0%        3%
LATINO    32%       65%        0%        1%        0%        2%
OTHER      5%       88%        0%        0%        0%        7%

18-29     32%       61%        0%        1%        0%        6%
30-44     50%       43%        4%        1%        1%        1%
45-59     46%       47%        2%        3%        1%        1%
60+       55%       39%        1%        3%        1%        1%

NE        39%       56%        1%        2%        1%        1%
SOUTH     56%       37%        3%        1%        1%        2%
MIDWEST   46%       49%        2%        2%        0%        1%
WEST      44%       50%        2%        1%        1%        1%


RESULTS FROM SINGLE DAY SAMPLE (361 respondents, MoE 5.1)

DATE      MCCAIN    OBAMA     BARR      NADER     OTHER     UND
12-Sep    47%       46%        2%        2%        1%        2%


MCCAIN FAVORABILITY
   
DATE      FAV       UNFAV     NO OPINION

13-Sep    55%       43%        2%


OBAMA FAVORABILITY

DATE      FAV       UNFAV     NO OPINON
13-Sep    55%       41%        4%


BIDEN FAVORABILITY

DATE      FAV       UNFAV     NO OPINON
13-Sep    50%       32%       18%


PALIN FAVORABILITY

DATE      FAV       UNFAV     NO OPINON
13-Sep    49%       40%       11%


GENERIC   CONGRESSIONALBALLOT
DATE      DEM       REP       UND
13-Sep    46%       40%       14%


POLL DEMOGRAPHICS

DEMOGRAPHICS:

Men            514     (47%)                                                        
Women          586     (53%)

Democrats      386     (35%)
Republicans    285     (26%)
Independents   329     (30%)  
Other/Refused  100      (9%)

White          803     (73%)
Black          145     (13%)
Latino         140     (13%)
Other/Ref       12      (1%)

18-29          198     (18%)
30-44          360     (33%)
45-59          298     (27%)
60+            244     (22%)

Northeast      243     (22%)
South          315     (29%)
Midwest        307     (28%)
West           235     (21%)


NOTE

The tracking  poll has a baseline of 1100 likely voters nationwide.
Results are based on a three day rolling average.
The margin for error is 3% for the overall tracking.
The margin for error is 5.1% for individual day tracking.

GEOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN:

Northeast:
DC, ME, VT, NY, MD, PA,CT, DE,  MA, NH, RI, WV, NJ

South:
FL, NC, SC, AL, MS, GA, VA, TN, KY, LA, AR,

Midwest:
IL, MN, MI, OH, WI, IA, MO, KS, IN, ND, SD, OK, TX, NE, CO

West:
NM, CA, OR, WA, AK, HI, MT, ID, UT, NV, AZ, WY

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 09:11 AM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  How do we get Nader to (8+ / 0-)

    take a very long vacation?

  •  Obama needs to run an ad calling out (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    fireflynw, Boulderinionian

    McCain's lies, and say "America deserves better"! ENOUGH!

  •  Obama needs to take down McCain's favorables. (5+ / 0-)
  •  And so, here we are (30+ / 0-)

    less than two months from the election with approximately 47% of likely voters claiming that they're going to vote for John McCain and Sarah Palin, and about 4-5% undecided.  Bob Herbert in the New York Times says:

    I’ve gotten the scary feeling, for the first time in my life, that dimwittedness is not just on the march in the U.S., but that it might actually prevail.

    and

    The likes of John McCain and George W. Bush can do the craziest, most irresponsible things imaginable, and it only seems to help them politically.

    Is it true?  Seems like it right now.  What an absolutely depressing thought

    "Only the most deluded of us could doubt the necessity of this war." John McCain at the RNC, August 31, 2004

    by Pangloss on Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 08:53:39 AM PDT

    •  Lincoln said it best as usual (6+ / 0-)

      "You can fool all of the people some of the time..."

      McCain/Palin: The Real Bridge to Nowhere

      by Anne Elk on Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 09:14:38 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  yep (6+ / 0-)
      This country -- 51 percent of it anyway -- is fundamentally unserious/uncaring.  They pay attention to politics for two months every four year, and this is whaty we get.  I'm not physically or psychologically capable of watching that turkey-skinned homunculus decompose before my eyes for the next 2-3 years before he croaks, then having this ridiculous caricature become President.  But I'd better get used to the idea.  

      Dear Democratic Party: Win This One or Just Disband

      by Tuffie on Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 09:18:50 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  It's the Murdoch effect (10+ / 0-)

        I truly feel that a significant number of Republicans, at least the ones that aren't bible thumpers, are really just more brainwashed by the Murdoch Media Fog than by being unserious or uncaring.  If you've been indoctrinated into the Limbaugh/O'Reilly/Hannity/Fox News/Savage/Drudge/Coulter axis of evil - made to distrust and hate all liberals, the NY Times, MSNBC & CNN, and the city of Berkeley - and have a closed mind, it's really more of a cult situation.  These people just need to be systematically deprogrammed.  

        These people think they are balanced because they get their news from various sources.  But they don't realize that all those rivers of lies originate from one source - the RNC/Rove/Murdoch talking point crowd.

        Don't they also wonder why most of those sources, specifically Drudge and NRO, DON'T allow comments?

        Daily Kos is the most democratic of sites because regular people can comment.

        •  Murdoch should have his US citizenship (0+ / 0-)

          revoked, should have his media empire disbanded, and should have his assets legally under siege.

          From there, I'd start moving towards a RICO prosecution case of News Corp. for committing acts of bribery and fraud in a conspiracy to manipulate or outright overthrow the US Government.

          McCain, Republican Party, Palin = Captain, Sinking Ship, Anchor.

          by Pescadero Bill on Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 09:46:40 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  need to be systematically deprogrammed (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          fantanel

          Unfortunately, TradMed appears to be "turning" too late. Now their Lying Meme is falling on deaf ears.

          I have to laugh at the Republicans that I interact with in daily life to keep from crying. If only they realized how ridiculous their Language of Rove (sometimes verbatim from the TradMed headlines) is. The lack of depth is astonishing. If one attempts to engage them past the talking points, it's a blank slate. Just ask Charlie.

        •  If you are that easily brainwashed (0+ / 0-)

          then you are unserious or uncaring, or just plain stupid.

          It turns out that Bush IS a uniter... he united the good half of the country virulently against him.

          by fizziks on Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 10:18:57 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Yes, I spoke rightwing talking points by accident (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          The Worm

          People at my work used to listen to shock jocks, and when someone asked me a question about something I wasn't interested in (i.e. I wasn't informed about) I just unconsciously regurgidated the shock jocks views! It had seeped into my brain without me even knowing!!!

          The shock jock would also pretend to battle for the underdog, so people saw him as a good guy.

          Don't underestimate the effect of both blatant propaganda and clever manipulation.

          •  O'Reilly is the most blatant (0+ / 0-)

            Arch conservative Bill O'Reilly has successfully positioned himself - falsely, of course - as an Independent.  No matter how far aligned he is with current neo-con thinking, by just repeating the lie over and over again -- the mantra that he doesn't take sides and is fair and balanced -- most of his followers believe him and defend him as such.  Then they can say, well, Bill O'Reilly said such-and-such, and he's not even a Republican.

            What's even worse is that O'Reilly, like the tobacco industry, is trying to indoctrinate kids into his way of thinking with his childrens books.  Get 'em while they're young...just like he accuses "liberal" college professors of doing.  

            O'Reilly, more than even Hannity, is the meme-talking attack dog who has done more to brainwash certain people into instantly distrusting the NY Times, Frank Rich, Paul Krugman, Maureen Down, ie "liberal bomb throwers," Berkeley, than ANYONE on TV or Radio.  Now that MSNBC and Daily Kos are gaining influence, he's placed them (or Roger Ailes has placed them) on the top of his list of people to attack and discredit.

            He isn't about independent thoughts.  He is one of the Republican's most effective weapons of psychological insurgency because he has so successfully positioned himself as the crusader of the working class.  It's a masterful act and much more subtle and strategic than people think.

          •  Very enlightened (0+ / 0-)

            Your realization of what you had done subconsciously is very revealing.  I commend you on having the self-awareness to have caught yourself doing it.

            Hopefully, the thousands or millions of people currently suffering the same shock-jock-induced manipulations or brainwashing will also start to put two and two together when more of the lies that they are hearing don't jibe with the truth they see and feel in their own lives.  It happened with me, too.  It's so eerily similar to "The Invasion of the Body Snatchers" and because it IS our current reality in this country, it's actually scarier than a horror movie.

    •  It's that October suprise that has me concerned. (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bwintx, dotalbon, naviline, annominous

      While I fully am expecting that our military will "suddenly" locate Osama Bin Laden in October, I'm not sure how that would help McCain at that point.  But it's something we should all be prepared for.

      Reverend Wright, Ayers and Rezko will surely be making encore appearances too.

      •  Can we skip October? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        dotalbon

        Or call it something else. I don't want any surprises.

        What do you talk about when you have nothing to say? What do you talk about when you can't explain the last 8 years of failure?

        by apip0115 on Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 09:21:50 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  They have already (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bwintx, The Worm

        Taken to shifting the blame for 9/11 off Osama bin Laden. I've also noticed the GOP mainstream, notably Bush and Rice, working to sew up "loose ends" very quickly, in quiet defiance of McCain, who has made many enemies. In all probability, bin Laden will "show up dead of kidney failure" or some such, and some other person will become the face of radical Islamic extremism.

        There is something universal here; not just something personal. Ludwig Wittgenstein, On Certainty, 440.

        by LRLine on Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 09:32:55 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  October surprise not much of a surprise (0+ / 0-)

          We have to make sure EVERYONE expect the October "surprise."

          The LA Times starts it off:

          http://www.latimes.com/...

          •  totally telling, especially (0+ / 0-)

            the part that read:

            If U.S. special operations forces capture or kill Bin Laden, or if a CIA technician pushes a button and puts a Hellfire missile between his eyes, Bush will have made good on the vows he made seven years ago to bring the Al Qaeda leader to some sort of justice. In the eyes of many who supported him over the years, that would allow the president to leave office with at least part of his historical reputation intact.

            There also are many Republican activists who must hope that an October surprise involving Bin Laden would give McCain -- unswerving supporter of the war and advocate of a muscular, hard-line foreign policy -- a boost by association. At the very least, anything that makes his connection to his party's now dismally unpopular president less of a stigma helps the GOP candidate.

            Yeah, no one expects the Spanish Inquisition, but everyone has got to expect the October surprise!

            Good one.

            There is something universal here; not just something personal. Ludwig Wittgenstein, On Certainty, 440.

            by LRLine on Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 03:11:57 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  I had a horrible (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        worldwidehappiness

        nightmare and saw in detail a McCain ad that featured Wright...it was very detailed in my dream on how the ad went and I woke up trying to figure out how to combat it.

        I was to go to the Obama office today to help get rid of my fear but am stuck at home right now.

        •  Obama's books would have plenty of ammo (0+ / 0-)

          ... for an attack featuring Rev Wright.

          I had a powerful dream about the re-election of John Howard in Australia that turned out to be 100% correct.

          I'm jittering now you've mentioned your dream!

          Try to have a dream with a solution!!!

    •  I suspect that much of this... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      dotalbon

      little bounce McCain has gotten has been due to decreasing gas prices.

      Those just went up significantly and it will be a harsh reminder to the voters how bad things really are.

      Add in a Hurricane like IKE and all the other bad news for McCain and Palin then it won't be long before people wise up I suspect.

      Not that I really think we'll see much change in the polls as the yay they are done in a country that is somewhat split in thirds for party affiliationm republician, democrat and other, it pretty much guarantees that the results will come in this way. You could pretty much run random models of call/answer scenarios and get the same results...

      What we do for ourselves dies with us, what we do for others and the world remains and is immortal. (Albert Pine)

      by laughingriver on Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 09:21:17 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •   the 49% who STILL give Palin a favorable rating (6+ / 0-)

      Live in a vastly different universe than I do.

      Obama is beginning to realize that it isn't enough to just talk to those who think like grown ups.

      "So much time and so little to do. Wait a minute. Strike that. Reverse it."- Willie Wonka

      by crystal eyes on Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 09:21:24 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  You're a political animal (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        crystal eyes

        and they're not.  Big difference.  

        "Activism is not a trip to the corner store ... it is a journey into the dark." -- Rebecca Solnit

        by dotalbon on Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 09:29:26 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  civil division (0+ / 0-)

        I've seen a few (not many) RWblogposts that foment civil war in the case Obama should win. I'm sure everyone here who visits RWblogosphere has.

        As a country we ARE socially divided, and legalized abortion is the primary source of that division. There is no other such divisive issue, thought the GOOPers are actively seeking more (AGW, SSM, OReally's War on Christmas eg). The GOOP has taken total advantage of the choice/anti-choice schism to augment their base, and those they get are GOOP solids some of whom agree with democrats about other important issues like the WoT. It is IMPORTANT to note that RW control has not led to RvW overturning, maybe because the GOOPs need to keep their anti-choicers on edge and active politically, election after election.

        Pointing this out to anti-choicers might be useful.

      •  Amen (0+ / 0-)

        So do the people who 'like' her.  I wouldn't want this airhead and her trailer trash family getting anywhere near mine.

        It turns out that Bush IS a uniter... he united the good half of the country virulently against him.

        by fizziks on Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 10:21:53 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  yah, herbert made me so sad this a/m. n/t. (0+ / 0-)

      "The truth waits for eyes unclouded by longing." The Tao Te Ching

      by hester on Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 09:29:58 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Unbelievable that it is even close! (0+ / 0-)

      In a sane informed educated world, you would expect maybe:

      McCain: 20%
      Obama: 70%
      Not voting: 10%

      A guy that want's to improve education, health care, and international relations, and who has an IQ of 135 should be thrashing an old hack and his radical "soulmate"!

      Q: What happened?

      A: Many Republican voters might be against Bush, but not against Republicans. Also, some of those who are against Bush are against him because he's not right wing enough!

      The solution? Better education!

  •  Dumb question, perhaps (3+ / 0-)

    but when can we expect to see the impact of the new trad med narrative -- McCain/Palin "less than accurate," "not factually correct," or "out-and-out liars"?

    My guess, with a three-day rolling poll, would not be before Tuesday of next week. But that's just a guess.

    •  about a week (3+ / 0-)

      that's usually what it takes.

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 09:15:51 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  But the real effect--if it works-- (3+ / 0-)

        takes longer.

        Dishonesty in and of itself may shift some voters but the biggest potential shift comes later after voters decide McCain is untrustworthy and then when they hear his messages (ads, debates, soundbites) they dismiss whatever he says.

        That's when the real effect shows up -- if Obama is able to make use of it.

        "Don't Blink" means Don't Think

        by chicago jeff on Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 09:19:43 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  at this point he's so dug in to certain positions (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          chicago jeff

          that it's becoming established are just wrong, like 'Obama will raise your taxes', that it will be hard for him to start telling the truth without some serious changes to his whole message. That's if the word about his dishonest campaign ads keeps spreading. I don't think it has spread as far and as well as it could, potentially.

          •  right. the msm is crucial (0+ / 0-)

            because it validates that line of attack (can't easily be dismissed as obama's desperation) and because it muffles the meme that both candidates are equally dishonest.

            typically, if the news coverage gives each side equal weight, they appear to cancel each other out.

            "Don't Blink" means Don't Think

            by chicago jeff on Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 09:27:56 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  McCain is dug into his lies, you're right (3+ / 0-)

            What I would love to see in a debate when McCain pulls out one of his lies about Obama re: taxes, etc.:

            Obama calmly turns to McCain and asks, perfectly sincerely and with a genuine quizzical look on his face, "Why are you lying, John?"

            McCain will explode at having his "honor" questioned by that young upstart Obama.

            •  better yet... (0+ / 0-)

              that'd be a great time for obama to explain that repeated, deliberate lying from our leaders endangers our country, our democracy because it makes it harder for people to trust their leaders.

              imagine how damaging it would've been if americans had been unwilling to trust bush going into afghanistan or fdr into ww2 or the new deal.

              mccain talks about honor as though it's about himself.
              it's really about the quality of his relationship with us, we the people.  lying degrades that relationship and makes it harder for us as a nation to succeed in national security, healthcare, the economy ...

              *********

              That there would be the story of the debate and dominate public discussion for weeks.

              "Don't Blink" means Don't Think

              by chicago jeff on Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 01:31:17 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

      •  and even then, there are a lot of secondary (0+ / 0-)

        effects that will be more important. Somebody else said, if people start to internalize the idea that McCain is a liar, even if that doesn't poison them to him right away, they might take the claims in his ads or in the debate less seriously. When he says "I'm a reformer" they might wonder, "Is he really?"

      •  Say... (0+ / 0-)

        could you update the diary to include the overall daily tracking numbers going back a few days, so at least we can see if there's any trend developing?

        Also, since you have all the subgroup information, other than the Palin favorability ratings, do you see any other significant movement among any given subgroup?  (Yes, even while recognizing that their margins of error are much larger and less reliable to draw any conclusions from.)

  •  What catches my eye (5+ / 0-)

    is that 91% of Republicans intend to vote for McCain.  Only 83% of Democrats intend to vote for Obama.  You would think that more than 9% of Republicans would have become disgusted enough to vote against their party after the past 8 years, and that fewer than 13% of Democrats would be willing to vote for McCain/Palin.  I think that's because the Democrats haven't done enough to go after Republican policies as abject, proven failures.

    It doesn't do any good to say McCain is just like Bush and wants to continue the same policies unless you illustrate how and why those policies have led us to where we are.  I hope the debates will help do that.

    "Only the most deluded of us could doubt the necessity of this war." John McCain at the RNC, August 31, 2004

    by Pangloss on Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 09:00:04 AM PDT

    •  Here's what gets me.... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wishingwell, sherlyle, Mind That

      ...if it isn't the policies of Bush that did it, what IS it that they don't like about Bush? What do they think will be different, apart from a mild makeover?

      "It's Palin and McCain, Yes Palin and McCain , One is a pit bull, The other's insane" -Nina Katarina (thank you!)

      by Alec82 on Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 09:14:24 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  What they don't like, I think (4+ / 0-)

        is that he's now generally seen as a loser. We need to make McCain look like a loser. We need to find sad, pathetic images of him and keep them before the public.

        In fact, Obama's ad showing McCain some kind of disco-era doofus might be just the thing.

        Love, baby, that's where it's at. --The B52's

        by Mind That on Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 09:18:51 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  How is the man perceived as a loser NOW? (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Mind That, dotalbon

          He won twice for God's sake.

          "It's Palin and McCain, Yes Palin and McCain , One is a pit bull, The other's insane" -Nina Katarina (thank you!)

          by Alec82 on Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 09:19:58 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  The image of him as an idiot and incompetent (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Mind That, dotalbon, Alec82

            is what is doing it, a loser in that sense. A lot of Republicans and indies even think of the Bush administration as incompetent. But I think a lot of what does it is just the emotional tenor of the press coverage he gets anymore. Very different from 5-6 years ago, even.

            McCain needs to be beat with the 'sad and pathetic' stick in the media, the 'liar' meme is a good start, but I think what's really crucial is to show him as weak and untrustworthy.

          •  He's a loser because everyone is making fun (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            dotalbon, Alec82

            of him. They loved him when he was a "top of the world" bully boy, but now that ALL the comedians and even many of the conservative talk show hosts are mocking him, then don't want to be associated.

            Remember we're dealing with impressions, not reality.

            Love, baby, that's where it's at. --The B52's

            by Mind That on Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 09:26:11 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  You really believe that? (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Mind That

              The people you are talking about don't watch "liberal" comedians and talk show hosts.  And they do live in a reality, a different one.  Their reality is created by Fox News.  Did you not watch the GOP convention?  These people get together and chant "Drill baby, drill."

              •  "Drill, baby, drill," (0+ / 0-)

                isn't a cheer for Bush, it's a cheer for McCain.

                Hannity, Limbaugh, Savage . . . those guys are all running away from Bush as fast as they can. In fact, Savage savages Bush worse than any liberal.

                Bush is an incompetent loser -- every Republican I know buys that. And those same people see McCain as a competent winner right now. They don't care about issues. They don't care about policy. They only care about voting for a winner. The more we can portray McCain as a doddering old man with an anger management problem, the better our odds are.

                Love, baby, that's where it's at. --The B52's

                by Mind That on Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 10:29:38 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  You miss my point (0+ / 0-)

                  Or wish to ignore it.  That is, they don't care, they don't believe, and they won't listen to what you, the liberal media, or Rush Limbaugh say about their hero. (McPalin)   You're all liars living in a different reality.  But maybe I'm wrong, so keep trying.

        •  and by *won.... (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          fizziks, dotalbon

          ...I mean he successfully achieved the status of president twice.

          "It's Palin and McCain, Yes Palin and McCain , One is a pit bull, The other's insane" -Nina Katarina (thank you!)

          by Alec82 on Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 09:20:33 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  And who do disco doofus' vote for? (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Litvak36, Mind That

          What you are saying is the perfect example of why Obama may lose this race yet.  Not everyone is as hip as you or Barak Obama.  Many people, people who were Democrats before you were born, are stuck in the 70's, 60's, even the 50's.  Many of them are just hard working people trying to get by.  They vote Democratic because their daddy did.  But if you keep pissing them off, they'll vote GOP,  just like their neighbors.

          •  Hmm . . . (0+ / 0-)

            so are you saying our best bet is to make sure we don't make them mad?

            I'm sick of the way so many Dems think we have to walk on eggshells around these guys. This is why we can't win over working class whites in the south. When we walk on eggshells, they think we're wimps. They'd rather die with a cowboy than live with a wimp.

            We need to mock McCain. He's a senile old man. He's Grandpa Simpson. If the disco thing doesn't work for you, pick something else, but for heaven's sake don't worry about cracking those eggshells.

            Love, baby, that's where it's at. --The B52's

            by Mind That on Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 10:35:16 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Again, in your frustration you miss the point (0+ / 0-)

              When you insult McCain, do it in a way that won't insult the person you want to vote for Obama.  I suspect we have a generational difference here.  So, go ahead, kick some ass, someday your nose will be as short as mine.  I've cut off my nose to spite my face a few times too.  We're on the same side, but you want to win this election and I just want to fight the good fight.  

      •  my guess (0+ / 0-)

        is Bush is unpopular for the way he grew government and the way he (didn't) pay for it while his friends/cronies grow rich and the rest of us grow poor. Voters generally get it that he hasn't done anything really well, although his supporters feel "protected" since there hasn't been another attack on his watch.

        The Goopers, under Bush, basically either renegged on everything they stand for (anti-big govt), or didn't provide any RW push (no anti-RvW movement eg). McCain's draw is his maverickiness thing. Pointing out that McCain backed Bush 90% of the time doesn't address the image McCain has of having gone up against the GOOPers ... he was wildly unpopular with the RW for his pro-amnesty bill on immigration, but the democrats can't take advantage of that because they are even more pro-amnesty. Anyway, after that he flip-flopped and otherwise, you have zip, lately. Now McCain is careful to keep the talk off real issues, cause there he loses.

        Here's a wrinkle: McCain needs the line-item veto to really keep his anti-earmark promise. Well, Presidents since Carter (and probably before) have begged for the LIV, congress wouldn't give it to them. And they won't give it to McCain either. McCain will never be able to keep that particular promise without grinding govt to a halt; the RW might like that but in reality, bad for everybody. What is really needed is grass-roots support aimed towards our congresspeople, some kind of referendum for a permanent cap on the national debt that would be linked to a presidential LIV power kicking in. Nothing threatening today, but a tool that would kick in at some nebulous point in the future when the direness of the budgetary situation crossed some threshhold. This idea might not help Obama now, but he could use something like it to take on McCain's false promises. Some kind of plan for dealing with the debt would certainly help future Americans who will be struggling in serfdom.

    •  The ones that got grossed out (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wishingwell, Treg, fizziks, VeganMilitia

      stopped calling themselves Republicans.  To identify with the Republican Party these days is to endorse Bush-McCain-Palin

    •  Read my diary (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wishingwell, dotalbon, annominous

      Obama has to make some big speeches laying out some big ideas and goals for his administration. That's what is missing. It isn't enough just to say your opponent is a failure. You have to articulate in a clear and compelling way where you want to take the country and why.

      McCain/Palin: The Real Bridge to Nowhere

      by Anne Elk on Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 09:16:35 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  There is no such thing as a moderate republican (11+ / 0-)

      And there is not a shred of legitimacy in the Republican party.

      It is a crime syndicate, not a political party.

      The degree to which this is close is the exact degree to which you must fight

      by Blicero on Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 09:16:59 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Think about it. (7+ / 0-)

      A lot of the ones who were sick of what happened left the party, and no longer identify as Republicans.  So those who still do are largely those who stuck with the GOP even after all the bullshit.  They're the true believers.

      As for the 83% of Democrats, you have to remember that a portion of them are those Southern Dems like Zell Miller, who simply never changed their registration.  Obama is simply not going to win their votes, ever.

    •  Republicans could care less (9+ / 0-)

      If the Constitution were ripped up and their children were shot in front of them. As long as they are promised unlimited tax cuts that's where their vote will go.

      Now, people had lost their fear. From that moment I knew we would win. - Oscar Olivera

      by Josh Prophet on Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 09:18:23 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Yep, Yep, Yep. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bwintx, dotalbon

      That 91% Republicans for McCain is a total disconnect with the polls that show 80% or more of people think the country is on the wrong track.  That 80% has to include some Republicans, no?  And yet, here they are, in lockstep with a guy who is not going to change a damn thing.  And they know it.  They just can't get past the R.

      On the other hand, Obama still has his work cut out for him in terms of bringing home the base.  Some of these might be disaffected Hillary supporters who are holding out to the end, or who have made the move toward McCain.  Others might be traditional Dem voters who still have doubts about Obama's experience and leadership.  Obama has to move that 83% up, at least by 5 points, 7 would be better.

      •  Once the Clintons hit the trail (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        dotalbon

        I think things will improve dramatically among the base.  With the 9/11 commemoration and the emergence of Hurricane Ike, I think Barack's meeting with Bill Clinton probably got lost a little bit.  

        Once Monday rolls around and we're back into the swing of things, I expect the media to roll back into the swing of things, which luckily for us has become increasingly anti-McCain/Palin.

        If John McCain is elected president, he will make Cheney look like Gandhi. - Ironically, Pat Buchanan

        by peacesignmoose on Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 09:23:55 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  That's good to think of, but (0+ / 0-)

          I thought the Clintons were going to hit the campaign trail LAST week.  I know HRC made an appearance in Florida, but except for posts on kos I heard very little about it.  

          "Activism is not a trip to the corner store ... it is a journey into the dark." -- Rebecca Solnit

          by dotalbon on Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 09:51:00 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  to former Hillary supporters: remember to donate (0+ / 0-)

          She still has a large campaign debt. I donate the same amount (small but what I can afford) every couple of weeks at Clinton's and Obama's websites.

          Gov. Palin is not an acceptable substitute for Senator Clinton. There's no comparison. If there even is such a thing as a PUMA, it must be that their original support for Hillary was based on gender. Please remember to donate to Clinton's campaign.

        •  Or it may remind them of their bitterness (0+ / 0-)
          The Clintons can come and try to remind people it's about the issues and how Obama will be better for them and the country or it may it'll just reinforce what a better candidate Hillary Clinton would have been as the nominee or VP.
      •  And some are Democrats that won't vote (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        feebog, batgirl71

        for a black person no matter what.  Obama can't do anything about that so he has to move to those people who can.

        The thing about Republicans is that their ultimate scape goat for every problem is liberals and Democrats.  So even if they believe that the nation is going in the wrong direction, they don't believe that Bush did it, they believe those pesky liberals got in Bush's way and made him fail.  The ones with sense are indepedents now and the nine percent that don't support McCain. The rest are probably so used to voting for R's that it doesn't matter who is on the ballot, they are going to vote R no matter what.

      •  You also have to take it in to account (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        feebog

        that many of those that think the country is heading in the wrong direction blame it on congress and those in charge of congress.

        I personally think the Dem leadership has done the party a grave disservice by not having a more assertive strategy for dealing with the Repugs.

        The leadership has proven both weak and wanted to play it safe and it's costing us.

        But now if they try and act all tough, it will just come off as being politically motivated. And unfortunately that just leaves them in a position where they can't act in any meaningful way which perpetuates their appearance as weak and ineffectual.

        McCain, Republican Party, Palin = Captain, Sinking Ship, Anchor.

        by Pescadero Bill on Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 10:07:15 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  they're there no matter what (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      housesella

      it all comes down to staying on, no matter what. democrats are too nitpicky... they want everything (at least it seems that last 13% does). it is amazing that some r-people can disagree with everything except one issue... and their vote is still there. dems need some o' that...

    •  In the south (5+ / 0-)

      many democrats are southern democrats and they often vote Republican. I canvassed in small town Florida and at least 20% of the democrats told me they never voted democrat. They stay registered with the party..I have no idea why...maybe family roots? This is why even though Florida has more registered Democrats, we are overrun with a Republican legislature and usually go Republican in elections. I imagine the same is true in some of the even more southern states.

    •  Those are mostly older southern dems who don't (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wishingwell, Pazuzu, echatwa, dotalbon

      normally vote for national democrats.

      "Don't Blink" means Don't Think

      by chicago jeff on Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 09:21:12 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  channeling my inner Dr. Seuss (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sherlyle, dotalbon

    "McCain's a Republican:  100 percent"

    What does this have to do with this case? Nothing. Ladies and gentlemen, it has nothing to do with this case! It does not make sense! The Chewbacca Defense

    by dehrha02 on Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 09:13:03 AM PDT

    •  The sad thing is (0+ / 0-)

      that's a much better slogan than anything the Dem strategists have come up with.

      "No way, nohow, no McCain" -- lame.

      "A ten percent chance of change" -- lame.

      I keep waiting for our guys to master the art of sloganeering.  

      "Activism is not a trip to the corner store ... it is a journey into the dark." -- Rebecca Solnit

      by dotalbon on Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 09:52:39 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Nader needs to get a hobby...n/t (8+ / 0-)

    "We are a Plutocracy, we ought to face it. We need, desperately, to find new ways to hear independent voices & points of view" Ramsey Clark, US AG

    by Mr SeeMore on Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 09:14:28 AM PDT

  •  This thing couldn't be more tied (6+ / 0-)

    There is an element of mysticism in the end result.

    Either America will regain its senses and save itself on November 3, or it will not.

    It's all rather amazing.

    The degree to which this is close is the exact degree to which you must fight

    by Blicero on Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 09:15:20 AM PDT

    •  It won't be that apocalyptic (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      annominous

      although it may seem that way right now.

      If McCain wins, there will still be any number of re-energized grass roots Democrats, and several new blue Congresspeople to carry the torch.

      If Obama wins, he'll face an ignorant population, right-wing talk show hosts waiting to pile on him for four years,  and a unified opposition party that will throw wedge issues at him.  

      "Activism is not a trip to the corner store ... it is a journey into the dark." -- Rebecca Solnit

      by dotalbon on Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 09:56:28 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  yes, winning the presidency in '08 a mixed bag (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jennyL

        Whoever does win will be expected to pull us out of a recession that is likely to make the great depression look like easy times. This depression, that has already started btw (the bigshots cook the numbers so they can say there is no depression, so as to try not to let economic problems enter into the national psyche and drag things down worse) is one of several MASSIVE GOP FAILURES OF POLICY that can be laid directly at their feet. Particularly to blame, besides Bush himself, are the GOP congresses in the Clinton and Bush years, who overturned Great-Depression-Era laws that had protected us up until then.

        The '08 winner is very likely to be swept out in '12 as failure of Hooverian proportions.

  •  Conservative talk radio (7+ / 0-)

    This is a bit off topic, but can anyone please explain to me why talk radio leans so heavily conservative. Hannity and Colmes is a microcosm of the state of talk radio. There are token liberals out there, but the largest and loudest personalities are Rush, Savage, Ingraham, Levin, and others by far. I am concerned that as long as they distort their dialogue against Obama, they will continue to influence American politics away from the more rational mores of the center. One particular example: hammering away at the Bill Ayers connection when that is a totally incidental contact that cannot be helped from time to time when working on important reforms like overhauling education in Chicago's troubled school system.

    •  Conservatism lends (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wishingwell, jennyL, The Worm

      itself to talk radio for the same reason that single issue voters prefer the GOP.  

      Seeing the world in black and white, us and them, makes for better entertainment on the radio.  You can demonize easily, whip up people into froths, generally utilize hate.  

      It's why football is more exciting to watch than chess.

    •  because liberals care about what the other side.. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wishingwell, jennyL, The Worm

      has to say.

      Seriously, liberals are more openminded, more likely to try to put themselves in the other person's shoes, more curious about what the people who disagree with them are thinking.

      So liberals watch conservative talk radio, I know quite a few who do because they find it amusing, and are curious as to what dems are saying about them. Look at what that idiot Rush is arguing now.

      Liberal talk radio isn't as angry, or biased. So it's less interesting, and few people, on either side find it amusing.

      Also, most liberals get their news from online. They listen to current music in the car. Conservatives are often old people who haven't figured out quite how to turn on a computer yet, like John McCain for one.

    •  Guessing here (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jennyL

      It appeals to the huge numbers of Americans who have never traveled outside of the US, who have never spent a lot, if any, time doing any critical thinking, dont read newspapers, have low curiosity about the world outside their homes....Conservative talk radio knows how to pull out the issues that are important to these people and exploit them. These people get a slight taste of the view of the world as Fox News/Rush/Hannity want them t it, and that is good enough for them.

      Politics is like driving...if you want to go backwards, choose R. If you want to move forward, choose D.

      by fireflynw on Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 09:22:43 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Talk radio is mostly conservative because (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wishingwell, MariaWr, jennyL, Loose Fur

      our media is largely owned by a handful of giant corporations. Giant corporations care about nothing but making as much money as possible. Republican policies are specifically designed to allow them to make gobs of money.

      Liberals tend to want fairness and fairness will hurt the bottom line.

      We need to break up media monopolies (and frankly, Bill Clinton is party to blame for our current media consolidation) and work to strip corporations of rights as "citizens".

      Love, baby, that's where it's at. --The B52's

      by Mind That on Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 09:23:59 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Conservatives (0+ / 0-)

      would rather sit and passively listen. Liberals would rather read and discuss. Conservatives are spoon-fed talking points and they spit them back up. Liberals prefer facts with hyperlinks that you can check for yourself.

    •  It has much more to do (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jennyL

      with the appeal to people's fear.  Rush tapped a  wave of loathing of "the enemy" (feminists, blacks, the Left)  the same way Billy Sunday and Father Coughlin stirred up the hinterlands against Catholics and Jews in the days when radio was still a young medium.

      The education level in this country was never great.  Only since WW II has a college education become the normal expectation for the younger generation.  What's changed is that ignorance and fear have become formally enshrined in the political stances of a major party.    

      "Activism is not a trip to the corner store ... it is a journey into the dark." -- Rebecca Solnit

      by dotalbon on Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 10:02:14 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  No mystery. They get the ratings n/t. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jennyL
  •  Why is American Voting for an EX CON? (3+ / 3-)
    Recommended by:
    Josh Prophet, raf, jennyL
    Hidden by:
    FleetAdmiralJ, yg17, Mariken

    Obama is probably not tied with McCain but behind him in reality. The racism factor is an established fact with non-white candidates....

    I don't understand why a nation would even consider McCain and his listless girlfriend....

    It's not funny anymore. It's not something Jon Stewart should be making jokes about as if McCain and Palin and Bush and Cheney are loveable miscreants...

    They are killers, murderers, torturers, liars, thieves and they need to be put in JAIL.

    McCain already did 5 years in prison for the last unjustified, pointless unproductive and needless war.

    Send him back to jail with Bush...

    Call it preemptive jail time...putting him in jail for the crimes he's about to committ.

    •  That's a little harsh...... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Litvak36, jennyL, naviline

      ...but an important point. It just galls me that we seem to accept that McCain was protecting our country in Vietnam. Our intervention in the Vietnamese civil war was unjust and did NOTHING to protect our interests. As a song of the era went "What are we fighting for? Don't ask me I don't give a damn". We were fighting "communism" -- a philosphy.

      Was there ever any real danger that I wouldn't be able to put up an American flag on my front porch in the morning, because the North Vietnamese would prevent me from doing so? Were they at war with us? No.

      The Vietnam war was a debacle. We didn't "lose" that war, and it wasn't the first intervention that didn't turn out exactly the way we planned (Korea).

      I was never in any danger from the Vietnamese and John McCain did not protect my freedom from any Vietnamese threat to my liberty.

      If you are spending time denying accusations and repeating your accusers' own words in your denial, you are losing. -- Tucker Eskew, Republican Operative

      by Bensdad on Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 09:28:03 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  But they said, (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Bensdad, jennyL

        "We're fighting them over there so we won't have to fight them over here."

        I was never in any danger from the Vietnamese and John McCain did not protect my freedom from any Vietnamese threat to my liberty.

        Yes, they said it even then. There was a TV show called Hawaii five-o where this tough anglo-saxon police dude fought Asian gangs in Hawaii to protect the mainland. That show was the 24 of its time.

    •  You're going to.... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      limulus, Always Thinkin

      ...get nowhere with that argument, friend. Saying he was in jail when he was a POW will make us look like assholes. Let's not fight the Vietnam war again, please!

      *John McCain is aware of the Internet*

      by MichaelPH on Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 09:28:43 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Polls are meaningless (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wishingwell, jennyL

    Like a football game, regardless of the odds, any team can win at any time.  There are so many variables that can change in the next seven weeks it's ridiculous to speculate, but I suppose it's just a fun overall gauge and time-waster.

    I'm still wondering what Barack & Bill talked about on Thursday.  Though there has been nonsensical rumors that Hillary would replace Joe Biden as the VP nominee, I still think it's more likely that she'll either be on the Supreme Court, or a deal is in place to make her Speaker of the House, so she's 3rd in line for the presidency.

  •  I wonder how much Palin's favorability matters (0+ / 0-)

    This is what I mean.  Seems to me that McCain got a lot of points when he picked Palin for being a "maverick" and "independent." Even if she is now viewed as less favorable, does that unfavorable impression necessarily lower McCain's "mavericky" rating?

    I mean, I know it SHOULD (if people are logical),  but does that actually happen in the real world?  

    •  McCain picked Palin cause she's a "Christian" (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      dotalbon, fantanel

      and the conservative Christians who come into my library and home school their kids and head over heals in love with her.  That's the new found enthusiasm for the McCain campaign.

      The real reason why I don't think you'll see Palin & McCain campaign apart is because she will draw the large crowds while no one will come out to see McCain alone. Now that would be embarrassing.

  •  I think the GOP is in big trouble (6+ / 0-)

    Palin/McCain has no place to go - but down.

    Americans - in general - are fair people.  And McCain and Palin are so far out of the mainstream.

    The lies that they are telling with such ease - is hurting them.

    As parents - the one thing we do not want around our children is making lies appropriate.  and have a presidential nominee and his V.P. as the biggest liars around - as parents -- that is a NO-GO item.

    It would be a terrific video --

    Counterpoint McCain lying - with a parent telling their child that telling lies are so very wrong

    "Proud to proclaim: I am a Bleeding Heart Liberal"

    by sara seattle on Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 09:16:43 AM PDT

    •  Sara this is a different country (8+ / 0-)

      everyone lies. I spent a flight home with a teacher from an exclusive prep school in Connecticut and she said that the parents actually coach their children to cheat and lie and get away with as much as they can because that's how THEY made their own fortunes. Lies are no longer wrong in this country. What is wrong is not having the talent to get away with lying.

      Now, people had lost their fear. From that moment I knew we would win. - Oscar Olivera

      by Josh Prophet on Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 09:23:51 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  yiiikes (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        blut4rsky, naviline

        at our house -- lying is just about the biggest sin you can have.

        But then of course - in my house we are not Republicans

        "Proud to proclaim: I am a Bleeding Heart Liberal"

        by sara seattle on Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 09:28:15 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I've thought about this (0+ / 0-)

        there's got to be a sociological study out there about just how much people lie.  Probably a lot.  People respect a gifted and effective liar - "You do what you have to do."  But they don't respect someone who lies and doesn't get away with it, so it has to be called out.  

        •  When McCain's poll numbers go up (0+ / 0-)

          they consider that "getting away with it". Regardless if the lie has been exposed. People will still consider his lies to be an effective means to an end. So unless Obama can counter with his own effective lies he will continue to be viewed as weak by their twisted standards.

          Now, people had lost their fear. From that moment I knew we would win. - Oscar Olivera

          by Josh Prophet on Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 10:14:27 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Interesting (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    dotalbon, RadioGirl, EcosseNJ

    But it will still always come down to the state-by-state analysis.

    I think the "liar" meme will slowly erode McCain/Palin.  But for right now, I think the public is giving that wiggle room for McSame and Palin to be upfront on the Bridge to Nowhere and other things.

    A few more days and then, I think, people will stop giving them the benefit of the doubt and the polls will shift both nationally and in each state.

    NARAL and HRC endorsed Lieberman. Therefore, I can no longer endorse them.

    by LeftofArizona on Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 09:17:05 AM PDT

  •  Look at the midwest. (12+ / 0-)

    Obama is ahead in the midwest.  He's ahead in the Northeast and in the West.  It does seem that truly the bulk of McCain/Palin support is in the south.  

  •  not much is going to happen in the next 2 weeks (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jackieca, Bensdad, dotalbon, jennyL, Loose Fur

    the first debate will be huge because which evr candidate takes the lead in the polls is going to make the supporters of the other desperate.

    After Obama's eighth straight victory, Penn told reporters: "Winning Democratic primaries is not a qualification or a sign of who can win the general election.

    by nevadadem on Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 09:18:46 AM PDT

    •  Exactly (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wishingwell, dotalbon, jennyL, Loose Fur

      I'm glad that everyone has such low expectations of Obama in the debates. That is great news for us so when even if he is just okay, the press will praise him and that means John McCain is doomed.

      John McCain would be better served if his folks started to downplay his own expectations for the debate.

    •  And this is where we fucked up. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      dotalbon

      We let them select the topic of the first debate: Foreign policy. McCain will do well there. He is not a complete idiot on foreign policy, as odious as his foreign policy is. The first debate sets the tone.

      If you are spending time denying accusations and repeating your accusers' own words in your denial, you are losing. -- Tucker Eskew, Republican Operative

      by Bensdad on Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 09:30:53 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  The surge question (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jackieca

        That will occupy much of the first debate I expect.  And I hope Obama has a shorter, more concise answer than the one he gave to O'Reilly.  He may have to dumb it down for the masses in a less-nuanced way so that even Hannity listeners can understand without going to Wikipedia (if they even know what that is).

        Other than that, I think he'll do well, especially as McCain is prone to bumbling the various religious sects in the Middle East and country borders.  And McCain won't have Lieberman to whisper the answers in his ear.

      •  Actually Mccain (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        FleetAdmiralJ, kat68, Loose Fur

        has more to lose on the first debate becasue lets face it, he has made alot of gaffes such as sunni vs shites and his position on Iran is radical as well.

        Also the fact that he has a lobbyist who lobbys for Georgia will probaley be tossed out there as well, plus remember Mccain is easy to rattle, Obama will be able to needle that grouch old fucker easily, IMO.  

        •  They won't be getting into the weeds..... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jackieca

          ...on the first debate.

          They are going to talk about the surge, for sure. VERY unlikely that anyone will talk about the fact that his senior adviser is a shill for Georgia (and that this is probably why the conflict occurred in the first place).

          If you are spending time denying accusations and repeating your accusers' own words in your denial, you are losing. -- Tucker Eskew, Republican Operative

          by Bensdad on Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 10:53:56 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Trend not looking good (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Bensdad, Pazuzu, dotalbon

    The trend is not looking good here.

    McCain was up in last night single day polling.

    Obama needs to do something to firm the base....Too many voting for McCain.

    He's also showing a terrible trend in the midwest...If it continues , it'll mean bad news for CO , NV.

    •  we're okay (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Bensdad, wishingwell, dotalbon, Loose Fur

      If you don't see a change twice that of the MoE, ignore it.

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 09:22:58 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  ok (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        dotalbon

        The poll also samples about 9% more democrats then republicans.

        Dont you think it' a bit too high...I'd have it at about 7 at this moment.

        •  It also samples the south more than others. (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          dotalbon, Loose Fur

          This will have major effects on how many democrats say they support Obama (many southern dems are really republicans or have issues with race still).

        •  gallup's at 2 points (0+ / 0-)

          and Hotline's at one (for a McCain lead)... we're all in the same place... too close to call.

          "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

          by Greg Dworkin on Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 10:41:30 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  WAY too high... (0+ / 0-)

          Sorry to be cynical, but there's a reason this poll seems more favorable to the Democratic ticket than Gallup, Rasmussen, et. al.

          Look at the party breakdown:  Obama is winning Democrats by a smaller margin than McCain is winning Republicans.  He's also losing "Independents" (by 49-42) and "others" (by 48-42).  How on earth can you get those numbers and not have McCain up by at least four or five?  Only by cooking the party-breakdown figure to make the electorate more favorable toward Democrats.

          I hate to put it this way, but a poll structured like this only gives credence to those who would claim that this was set up by a liberal organization to give comfort to liberals when the other poll results were too depressing for them, rather than an actual attempt to measure the pulse of the American electorate.

    •  The base that would vote for him already is... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      dotalbon

      I would guess that the hold out democrats voting McCain or Nader are either...

      a). democrats in name only.

      b). racists that can't trust a black man. esp a black man whose former preacher said "unamerican" things.

      Obama can't and should try to win those people back.

      He should instead focus on the moderates who are actually openminded.

      Don't attack McCain. That will blow back on Obama.

  •  The Other race wise (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    dotalbon

    could make a big difference in Michigan. There is a large very active Indian population there, so I see the 88% for Obama as a good omen.

    Four out five sock puppets agree

    by se portland on Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 09:21:12 AM PDT

  •  obama's 55% women isn't enough (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Bensdad, dotalbon

    is it?

    the unfavs on palin are hilarious though.

  •  McCain gaining in the MidWest (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Bensdad, dotalbon

    Is not a good news. Too close for my liking.

    It's Always Darkest Before the Dawn

    by Friar on Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 09:21:57 AM PDT

  •  McCain is leading on "Five Thirty Eight" (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Bensdad, dotalbon, blueocean

    and "Electoral Vote". The current maps could easily be from 2004.

  •  via politico (10+ / 0-)

    "Obama camp: 'Disgusting lies,' 'not worthy'

    Sensing, perhaps, a turn in the media against McCain's stunts, Obama spokesman Bill Burton puts out a scorching statement:

    "We will take no lectures from John McCain who is cynically running the sleaziest and least honorable campaign in modern Presidential campaign history. His discredited ads with disgusting lies are running all over the country today. He runs a campaign not worthy of the office his is seeking.""

    OH SNAP SON!

    "We know Wham's songs are great, and we believe in presenting them in such a fashion that everybody knows it." -George Michael

    by jaylong on Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 09:22:21 AM PDT

  •  Her Negatives Will Go Up. She Was Unknown. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bluejeandem, jennyL

    Gov. Palin's negatives will go up as more is discovered about her, and her robot-like, programmed performances start to annoy even conservatives, which they have. They feel she is being reigned in. It's all downhill.

    Trying to make the libertarian Democrat a reality

    by Don the swing voter on Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 09:23:09 AM PDT

    •  not just her personal characteristics, but... (0+ / 0-)

      here very, very, very extreme views

      i can't see how any women could support someone who is against abortion even if you are raped - that is an extreme position

      this robot got some good press to start, but as we learn more she is a scary fascist

  •  Please be patient and trust the American public (7+ / 0-)

    Thats what I hope all of us are doing and Im sure thats what the Obama campaign is asking

    "Four seconds is the longest wait " -Sleater-Kinney

    by delphil on Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 09:23:20 AM PDT

    •  risky (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      limulus, housesella, dotalbon

      You cannt really trust the public...you have to do whatever i poible to force your message as hard as possible.

    •  It's almost impossible for me to trust the public (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      hester

      This is the same public that voted for a 2nd Bush term.

      McCain * Palin 08 - A Bridge To Nowhere!

      by Beelzebud on Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 09:31:01 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Trust the American Public?????? (0+ / 0-)

      After the 2004 election???? Not on your life. I trust Obama. I trust my gut. I do not any longer trust the American people b/c I think they like to believe out right lies.

      "The truth waits for eyes unclouded by longing." The Tao Te Ching

      by hester on Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 09:44:07 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  2004 was stolen (0+ / 0-)

        Check out the DVD "Uncounted" - a shocking expose on GOP voter suppression and fraud that the Bush people used against likely Dem voters in five key states.

        Among the hall of shame exaples: counties in OH with more votes than residents; a computer programmer employed by the GOP testifies how a FL congressman hired him to write the software to flip votes on DiBold machines; voters in OH & NM testify on how they showed up to vote only to find the polling machines broken for 8 hours.

  •  Who are these 13% (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    limulus, Calidad

    And why do they like McCain. I'm giving them a call.

    What do you talk about when you have nothing to say? What do you talk about when you can't explain the last 8 years of failure?

    by apip0115 on Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 09:25:34 AM PDT

    •  Seriously, though, on the 13% (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      apip0115

      Who are these people?  Nearly one in 7 Dems polled would vote for McCain?  I don't understand this.  Can anyone explain this?  The old crazy conspiracy theorist in me keeps whispering that there are wolves in sheep's clothing.

      Further, as part of the '30-44' demo, I'm rather appalled to see the 50% for McCain.  I can't think of another candidate more out of touch with my age group.  Someone earlier pointed out that this demo came of age during the Reagan years.  I remember those years, but I've been awake and aware since.

      - amo

  •  A pathological liar... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    aaraujo

    ...like McCain should not have a favorability rating of 55%.  That's ridiculous.

    McCain's isanely high favorability rating must be attacked by constantly pointing out McCain's addiction to lying.

    George Bush lies & his favorability rating drops to a much deserved 28%.

    McCain lies & his favorability rating soars to 55%.

    "The thought of [McCain] being president sends a cold chill down my spine."-Senator Thad Cochran, Mississippi Republican.

    by wyvern on Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 09:25:56 AM PDT

  •  palin's "bounce" will soon turn into a loss.... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    se portland, kat68

    when women see her extreme positions that include opposing abortion even in cases of RAPE AND INCEST - that view, among others, are so extreme that moderates (who at first liked her) are going to jump off that bridge to nowhere fast

    •  Palin was McCain's trump card (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      kat68

      He was not getting any Media attention before that and hasn't bad a press conference in a month. If he stays boxed up, Obama can start talking about the issues like the economy. If he takes questions from the press he will have to explain his lies. Either way, depending on the debates, I think we have seen McCain's high water mark.

      Four out five sock puppets agree

      by se portland on Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 09:34:41 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Question about men/women. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    radioactivepickle

    If women in sample outnumber men 53-47, and
    Obama leads among women by 8 and McCain leads among men by 8, then
    How can the race be tied 47 to 47?
    That doesn't make sense, unless McCain is being rounded up to 47 and Obama is being rounded down to 47.

    •  those aren't the only demographics (0+ / 0-)

      that are taken it account. think--some of those women and/or men may be different ages, ethnicities, in different parties.

      "Americans wish to be settled. Only so far as they are unsettled is there any hope for them" -Emerson.

      by kfd313 on Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 09:33:36 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I disagree, because (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        radioactivepickle, jennyL, Loose Fur

        Look at the cross tabs.
        There are 1100 respondents in the survey.  514 are men and 586 are women.  There is no third category.
        Obama gets 52% of women, ie 305 women.  He also gets 42% of men, ie 216 men.  Total Obama = 521.
        McCain gets 44% of women, ie 258, and 50% of men, ie 257, total McCain 515.  Balance to third parties and undecideds.
        So Obama actually leads 521 to 515, which is 47.363636...% to 46.818181.....  Which is actually a lead of 0.55%.
        However, if you round Obama's and McCain's percentages, you round Obama's down to 47 and McCain's up to 47, but Obama actually still leads by more than half a point.

  •  Important to remember that weekends aren't (0+ / 0-)

    usually good for us poll-wise and that the pants-on-fire narrative will take awhile to show up in the polls.

  •  debates will decide this (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    dehrha02, se portland

    Obama has to show he is presidential and that McCain is no different than Bush. It also wouldn`t hurt to have Biden wipe the floor with palin by showing her lack of knowledge.
    The polls are locked until the first debate, then it may break one way or the other.

  •  Are there any geographic differences in Hispanic (0+ / 0-)

    support? I know the sample size is small, but over a week, it's probably big enough to discern information.

    See the losers in the best bars, meet the winners in the dives -Neil Young

    by danoland on Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 09:30:02 AM PDT

  •  WE NEED SWING STATES DAY TO DAY TRACKING POLLS (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Loose Fur

    Does Kos have states poll coming for today?

    Forget a national tracking poll...We need state tracking poll.

    How about day-to-day tracking polls in CO , NM , NV , MI , PA , NH , WI

  •  This is crazy (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jennyL

    after 1 entire week of the media calling him out on his lies, after that embarrassing interview Palin give, the majority of Americans still want them to win? This is perplexing.

    We need money to win. Please Donate to Obama/Biden 08.

    by jbjowe on Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 09:33:23 AM PDT

  •  I'm not voting Democrat because of Obama & FISA (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    utuve12

    I'm not voting for Viagra Man & Silicone Girl either.  I'm voting Green for the first time because, if the candidate wants to ignore the base, he can lick his wounds after he loses.

    Palin is to governing as priests are to babysitting.

    by uc booker on Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 09:33:47 AM PDT

  •  Proof Of Reincarnation? (0+ / 0-)

    "I don't know what to do or where to turn in this taxation matter. Somewhere there must be a book that tells all about it, where I could go to straighten it out in my mind. But I don't know where the book is, and maybe I couldn't read it if I found it."
    --Warren G. Harding

  •  More states are in play (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Bensdad, Mariken

    When we wanted to extend the map, we certainly did not think extending this way.

    NJ +3 Marist poll
    WA +2 Rasmussen
    MI -1 InAdv/PollPosition
    WI +3 Strategic Vision
    PA +3 Quinnipiac

    These are the most latest polls from RCP. All these Kerry states are within margin of error. Now Obama has to spend time and resources in these states. NJ, I never thought could be in play.

    •  I doubt (7+ / 0-)

      WA and NJ are in play.  McCain got a bounce, but if you look at those polls Obama has 49% in  WA and 48% in NJ,  we have only seen on NJ poll so it could easily be an outlier and both WA polls have Obama at 49%.  When Obama gets such high numbers in a strong McCain period, it indicates that this is his "floor-level".  If you have a floor-level at this stage around 48-49 you win.  

      NJ and WA are not in play at all. McCain are not using much money there and he haven`t been there, so no they are not in play.  

      That MI poll is also the only MI poll with McCain ahead.. InAdv is not the best pollster out there either...  4 other polls this week have Obama up, two by more than MOE.

      Obama is up in all PA polls released after the convention.  

      You have to remember that those polls reflect the bounce for McCain.  Give it 1-2 weeks and things change.  And NJ is not in play at all.

      •  I know.. (0+ / 0-)

        that McCain can not win in these states, but if he and his 527s started to spend money in these states they could cost Obama resources. Certainly no one can think NJ will vote McCain in the election, but if Obama has to spend just one day there that would cost him plus he has to be in CA, and NY for raising funds.

        All the polls have Obama up, but the troubling sign is that they all are very close. I have another concern- what would change? Obama traditionally doesn't come out great in debates. and remember Kerry trounced Bush in debates and that did not move the polls much, Bush took small lead after Rethug convention and that continued till the election day.
        Obama should be up double digit in this year. what's wrong with people.  

        •  If McCain can't win those states, (0+ / 0-)

          why should Obama invest any time or resources there?  Let McCain waste his time and resources in a hopeless attempt to win them, while we focus on the real swing states.

        •  And re 2004, actually the debates (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jennyL, Always Thinkin

          helped Kerry immensely.
          He was down substantially after the Rep convention, and made up a huge amount of ground after the first debate.  Just never quite made it over the hump, although a lot of Ohioans and exit pollsters would disagree.

        •  I live in Oregon (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          utuve12

          and grew up in Washington.  the urban areas are super liberal and the rural places are not.  Washington is blue, but every big partisan election is close.  Its current governor won by literally a handful (100 or so) of votes.  I've run three local campaigns in a split urban/rural and won by very tight margins. No democrat in Washington or Oregon can sit on their laurels and hope to win.  It's the nature of our politics. Resources have to be invested here no matter what.  I know the Obama campaign knows this.  I doubt they were ever hoping they could take Washington or Oregon for granted.  The campaign is in both states, on the air AND on the ground.

    •  All 5 of those states (0+ / 0-)

      are states that every 4 years, the close polls entice the republicans to dump a ton of money into the state thinking they can flip it, but they never do. Especially NJ.

    •  Michigan poll flawed.. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Loose Fur, Always Thinkin

      Go to realclearpolitics and click on the Michigan InsiderAdvantage/Poll Position poll from Sept 11. It's here: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/...

      Look at the internals. It has McCain leading Obama 50% to 37% among 18-29. Has McCain beating Obama 63% to 37% among Hispanics. Something is wrong with that poll. It's flawed. All other polls from Michigan since June have Obama ahead. Don't freak out over one outlier poll.

  •  real clear politics (0+ / 0-)

    why doesn't RCL post this poll?

    they post every other poll except this one.  they must be biased against Kos.

  •  There are two things about this poll (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jennyL, Loose Fur, utuve12

    i find interesting:

    1. Palin`s favorable/unfavorable rating getting worse. Haven`t seen any other poll confirming this, so we don`t know if its true.  But it would be positive if it is true.  
    1. The strong performance by McCain with the age group 30-44.  I just don`t believe it.  Obama doing better with people from 45-59 than 30-44? I don`t think thats correct at all.  
  •  Obama's MSG: McCain WON'T cut your taxes (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    hester

    Forget everything else.  That should be his message.

    McCain WON'T cut your taxes then show a commercial with throngs of people and say that McCain's tax plan won't cut the taxes of any of these people.  That's the message.  Obama WILL CUT your taxes McCain WON'T.

  •  McCain health (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Loose Fur

    When will McCain's health issues take center stage? What is the life expectancy of a 72 year old who has survived several episodes of cancer? Especially when it is such a serious form of cancer. I'll bet the insurance industry's actuarial tables have a specific answer to that question.

    Is this being saved for a latter date?

  •  WcCain Is Finally Winning the *Electoral College* (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    utuve12

    WcCain is now beating Obama in the Electoral College (the only measure that matters), as he's been since yesterday, the first time in the entire campaign, owing to Florida now showing its 27 EVs for WcCain (by +5).

    "When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro." - HST

    by DocGonzo on Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 09:45:48 AM PDT

    •  Nooooo!!! (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DocGonzo

      I swear if we have another lose the popular vote, but win the election, I'm moving to Canada.

      But seriously, I think Obama could even have a chance at Indiana at this point, which is listed as "weak Republican" those polls take people who are "likely to vote" AKA, old people and republicans.

  •  Nader's a Jackass (0+ / 0-)

    "The difference between theory and practice is that there is no difference, in theory." - Yogi Berra (my paraphrase)

    "When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro." - HST

    by DocGonzo on Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 09:46:42 AM PDT

  •  Explain Bush failures and tie that to McCain (0+ / 0-)

    Obama needs to make a series of ads that explain the big failures of Bush and tie each of the failure to McCain.

    Unless we make McCain pay for Bush failures this election will be close.

    Also I think we need to start saying : McCain/Palin is the 3rd term of Bush/Cheney. Not only tie McCain to bush but tie Palin to Cheney.

  •  What are missing internals? Something is killing. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    dotalbon, jennyL

    If the internals are so good why is the top line so bad? Or do the internals need a reality check.

    End the  'it's the convention surge' - 'things always get tight'.

    Let's face it Palin has out performed Hillary with independents and McCain's surrogates have outperformed Obama's.

    Remedy - Find and reverse the internals that have tilled McCain's way then get those surrogates off their hind end. Stalling for 2012 is not an option.

    •  Remedy:Stop saying bashing her lack of experience (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      EyeStreetMom

      It's a LOSER.

      IGNOR HER.

      •  WRONG. Look at the cross tabs (0+ / 0-)

        Palin's popularity is sinking fast; her favorables are now below 50%, and her favorable/unfavorable margin is now the lowest of the 4 candidates, a complete change from a week ago.

        •  There is no issue that CONs love to debate more (0+ / 0-)

          than Sarah Palin's experience.

          •  Let them, it's a loser for them. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Always Thinkin

            Every bit of "experience" she claims is a lie.
            For the Bridge To Nowhere.
            Leading requester of earmarks.
            Turned Wasilla and Alaska into personal fiefdoms.
            Ready to deal with Russia because you can see it from an island.
            Sold plane on Ebay.
            Lied about going to Iraq.
            Plus:
            Made rape victims pay to get forensic evidence.
            Aerial hunting of wolves.
            Increased sales tax, including tax on food.
            Took Wasilla from balanced budget into debt.
            Greatly increased size of budget.
            etc, etc, etc.
            She has no good experience.

            •  But.. (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              jeffwtux

              its not, it would be throwing a grenade which will ricochet back to Obama. We can not hit her on experience as it will bring back that Obama is not that great on that front either, and will be comparing #2 on their ticket to #1.
              Bridge to nowhere flip flop will bring back public financing, and FISA
              Requester of earmarks will bring Obama's earmark and the fact that McSame has not requested a single earmark for AZ.  
              Sold plane on ebay is as good as lipstick on a pig, she put the plane on ebay, it did not sell so she sold it elsewhere, she did not keep the jet.

  •  Obama actually leads by .55% in this poll -- (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Allen, EcosseNJ

    Look at the cross tabs.

    There are 1100 respondents in the survey.  514 are men and 586 are women.
     
    Obama gets 52% of women, ie 305 women.  He also gets 42% of men, ie 216 men.  Total Obama = 521.
    McCain gets 44% of women, ie 258, and 50% of men, ie 257, total McCain 515.  Balance to third parties and undecideds.

    So Obama actually leads 521 to 515, which is 47.363636...% to 46.818181.....  Which is actually a lead of 0.55%.

    If you round Obama's and McCain's percentages, you round Obama's down to 47 and McCain's up to 47, but Obama actually still leads by more than half a point.

  •  Gallup 47M-450 Getting closer (0+ / 0-)

    Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things and no good thing ever dies.

    by pointman on Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 10:03:34 AM PDT

    •  You beat me to it (0+ / 0-)

      I wonder what Ras will say after 9/11 cycles off the 3-day.  It looks like JM had a big day then, but not the day before or after, if I'm reading things correctly

      "What is a political regime, when devoid of justice, but organized crime?" (Augustine, DCD)

      by Allen on Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 10:06:24 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yes, I agree. McCain up by 9% on 9/11, (0+ / 0-)

        race dead even on 3 days before and yesterday.

      •  I bet (0+ / 0-)

        when that day falls off, we move back to even. This thing is tight right now. Looks like the debates will have the opportunity to be the deciding factor. Be ready Barack!!!!

        Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things and no good thing ever dies.

        by pointman on Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 10:10:15 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  He moved (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Loose Fur

        to at 3 point lead from a tie.  That would indicate that Thursday was close to 9 point better than Monday.  Obama had a strong day Monday, but I would guess that McCain was up by 5 or 6 points Thursday.

        One interesting point about the Rasmussen poll, is that McCains "very unfavorable" rating is at its highest, still lower than Obamas but McCain has only been at 23% once and that was at the peak of the DNC.  Obamas "very unfavorable" is also close to its highest, but he has been getting 29% or more several times.  

        I will be interesting to follow the development, I don`t think McCain can handle a "very unfavorable" rating close to Obamas if his "very favorable" rating drops 3-4% as well. A lot of McCains campaign is build on his ability to "cross party-lines" and that people don`t dislike him.  That could be starting to change with the media attacking him for lies etc.  Rasmussen has a slight statistical lead for McCain, but that is only because of Thursday which I believe was statistical noise related to the pig-comment and 9/11.  I wouldn`t be surprised if all 4 tracking polls show a statistical tie on monday.  

        I could look like the Palin-hype is cooling down, I expect her to keep her base, but it also look like "our" base is hating her.  The question is what centrists think.  If they turn on her, it would be a  huge problem for McCain.  McCains slight lead in polls at this stage, is baser on a lead with independents and the fact that he is doing a little better with republicans than Obama is with Democrats.

    •  Gallup number blows (0+ / 0-)
      It means McCain was up 5 yesterday.  This country just makes me sick.

      Dear Democratic Party: Win This One or Just Disband

      by Tuffie on Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 12:29:20 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Hard to tell... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Loose Fur

        Such a claim would imply that McCain was up 8 on Tuesday.  It's possible, but Nate at 538.com posted a good article a few days ago on how difficult it is to figure out the internal days on a tracking poll.  I'd keep watching the trends and not try to figure out a given day.

      •  How do you figure (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Loose Fur

        I'm not saying you're not right, but the gallup gap has dropped a point a day the last 3 or 4 days.  I don' see how that works out to a +5 day yesterday

        "What is a political regime, when devoid of justice, but organized crime?" (Augustine, DCD)

        by Allen on Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 01:24:03 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  What's significant (and heartening)... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Loose Fur, EcosseNJ

      ...about that is that is not only that the margin is closing, but that the number of undecided is going up while McCain's numbers are going down.  That would indicate that some of those affected by the convention bounce are now returning to not being sure who to vote for, and can thus be reached through the rest of the campaign.

      Putting it mildly, it's far better to be behind 47-45 than 50-48, as you have a lot more room for improvement.

  •  I'm sorry but this is remarkably stupid (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Mariken, Loose Fur, utuve12

    only 29 percent of respondents in the poll said Palin makes them more likely to support McCain in the fall

    Only! What the f are you talking about -- 29% in this election to a candidate with the toxic GOP sewage is huge! This editorializing with the use of the word only is almost unforgiveably biased.

    "Economics is not something I've understood as well as I should." John Sydney McCain III

    by thefretgenie on Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 10:05:41 AM PDT

  •  the poll (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bwintx, Loose Fur

    I'm not too upset about that poll.  Let's remember than McCain just had the best week that he's likely to have in this campaign.  It's downhill from here...

  •  Me too! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Loose Fur

    I was just about to post it.  The bounce has faded, and its now a tie ballgame.  All up to the debates and the work on the ground.  I'd much rather be us then them right now.

    Hold onto all the Kerry states, and flip IA, NM, and CO.  That's game.

  •  Hotline -- McCain by 1 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    utuve12

    Where are the attack ads?

    by Paleo on Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 10:09:46 AM PDT

  •  Isn't it moving in the other direction? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Loose Fur

    Poll was +2 two days ago, +1 yesterday, and tied today.

  •  This race has come down to as it always was (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Loose Fur, utuve12

    about Obama rallying as much Dem base support as possible (compare his base support to McCain's) and getting Indies to come around.  The thing from the Rep convention that has sustained McCain's numbers is the switch over from Indies.  Like Steve Schmidt of McCain's campaign said in June when their whole Britney campaign began, we need to puncture McCain's ballon before he continues to raise out of our grasp.  If Obama has a Colin Powell endorsement (and I have no inside knowledge) then he needs to roll it out very soon (and please spare me the outrage progressives feel toward him because of his role in the Iraq war, Powell plays well with Indies and that is the group we need it is not like I'm asking for Obama to make him sec state).

  •  My own observations. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    utuve12

    We all know what's wrong with McCain/Palin. Unfortunately, most Americans will be drawn to them for stupid reasons. If there are any political reasons, it's perhaps due to Obama's campaign going soft on McCain.

    McCain confirms my worst fear that so-called war heros, whether they're active duty or veterans, will always be treated with a god-like status. Americans love war heros (I don't however). Even here on DailyKos, people rush to suck off any military people that present themselves.

    No one will care about how fucked up or hypocritical John McCain is due to the fact that they consider him a war hero so they'll make allowances for his disgusting behavior.

    As for Palin, while we know how much of a dangerous wingnut she is but most Americans will find appeal in her status as a soccer mom with a big family.

    Palin has a twisted "sitcom" appeal. I can't quite describe it, but that's what I see it as.

    Overall, my unprofessional observation is that at least half of Americans will vote for McCain/Palin for shallow personal reasons rather than political ones.

    If there are political reason, then most Americans still find some appeal to Republican politics. They have the illogic that "If it isn't broke, don't fix it.". They may be disgruntled with the Bush Administration in particular, but they don't hate the Republican Party in general. They just want a change in tactics.

    At this point, for all that is wrong with him, I hope that Obama wins. I will always be critical of him and when or if he's president I will challenge him when he fucks up. I'll take my chances with Obama nonetheless.

    One big question: what will you guys do if Obama/Biden lose?

    •  Not all war Heroes, only Resmuglicrooks. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      The Movac

      John Kerry was a war hero, but those sick bastards managed to make that a negative.  Psychological warfare knows no bounds, and its the only tactics the McPhalin campaign can use, just like our pal W.  If they were forced to consider the paradox it takes to support that ticket, Obama would win 98%-2%(some rich folks are actual Resmuglicrook constituents by the pocketbook).

      It is always better to have no ideas than false ones; to believe nothing, than to believe what is wrong. -Thomas Jefferson

      by Resmuglicrook Investigator on Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 11:06:36 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Good point about Kerry. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Resmuglicrook Investigator

        What's funny is that he shared a lot of Bush's positions. Perhaps the only reason his war hero status didn't help is, like you said, due to Republican smear tactics.

        If John Kerry was a Republican or at least had a more aggressively pro-war stance then he would probably have had a chance. Then again, that wouldn't be good for anyone!

        I don't know for sure. I only want Americans to pull their heads out of their asses and see that conservative Republican policies are NOT good for our country or the world.

        I wish the Democrats would stop trying to be Republican-lite too.

  •  McCain Sold The Shade (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Loose Fur
    a few night ago I read my son a story about a wealthy Chinese merchant who became indignant that a poor peddler kept seeking shade underneath his cypress tree. One day he offered to sell the peddler his shade. The peddler agreed, they wrote up a deed of sale and made the deal.

    One day, the peddler and his freind were playing cards under the tree. the game went on and the sunlight moved the shade into the merchant's living room. So inside they went and carried on with the card game. When the merchant got home he became angry that the peddler and his friends were in his house. The peddler showed him the deed and rightfully claimed the shade was his and he could have access to it, no matter where it went.

    The merchant could do nothing. Eventually, he had to buy back the shade for all he had. He got the house back, but his wife left him and he died a poor and lonely man.

    The point here is that, by engaging in a cynical, slimy campaign of outright lies and phony outrage, McCain has played right into Obama's hands without even knowing it. The MSM is clearly fed up and will not let him get away with it. The more he tries the worse he looks (see The View, Charlie Gibson, Today Show, etc.).

    As long as he's truthful, Obama has the moral highground to lay into McFraud with these devastating ads and the MSM (minus all Murdoch-owned entities) is behind him on plain principle. The AP, which feeds papers like the Lansing state Journal, has been skewering McCain all week.

    My friends, McCain has sold the shade and the only way to get his house back is to play fair. And on those terms, he loses big. I'm sure that over the next few days we'll see more memes about his lying on the tax issue, his dependence on lobbyists and the rest of his hypocrisy.

    Obama is back in control of the narrative. The money numbers are coming out, and soon enough the Palin-bounce will be yesterday's news.

    "Make them sell us the shade!"

    by jflack on Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 10:37:33 AM PDT

  •  Actually, the debates will be like Futurama. (0+ / 0-)

    McCain: I think we should go to war with Iran!

    Obama: I respect my opponent, he's an honorable man, but I agree with everything he just said!

    I guess Bob Barr is the closest thing we have to Cyborg Nixon.

  •  Forgive me for not reading the entire thread... (0+ / 0-)

    this question may have already been asked.

    Why the huge disparity in electoral votes on 538 these days? Why is there a sixteen vote difference?

    Popular vote split on 538 is currently Obama 48.6 and McCain 50.1 - where did the electoral vote shift come from?

    Thank you for anyone who can answer this.

    •  Nate is projecting Colorado going G.O.P.... (0+ / 0-)

      Flip that, and it's Obama 270, McCain 268.

      I'd say the polls there make it too close to call, maybe even leaning in our direction, but Nate's computer simulation shows Colorado going for McCain 56% of the time.  If his demographic assumptions are faulty, that may mean nothing...although, of course, it also means that his calling certain other "toss-up" states for Obama may be likewise off.

  •  Great, McCain is exposed as a lying sack of shit (0+ / 0-)

    and he's still polling ahead of Obama.

    WTF?

    "When I was an alien, cultures weren't opinions" ~ Kurt Cobain, Territorial Pissings

    by Subterranean on Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 11:46:07 AM PDT

  •  Democrats F***k-up again (0+ / 0-)

    If the Democrats can't win this election the whole DNC and Obama teams should resign from any positions of influence. That McCain is even close in the polls is a disgrace! If there was any election that should be a foregone conclusion it is this one!

    •  I would agree, but let's not declare (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Loose Fur

      defeat when a victory is there to be had.

      Alternative rock with something to say: http://www.myspace.com/globalshakedown

      by khyber900 on Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 12:52:09 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Dems aren't fucking up (0+ / 0-)

      Americans are fucking up.  If they chose McCain over Obama, then they will collectively get exactly what they deserve (except the wealthy elite, they are never held accountable for anything).

      "When I was an alien, cultures weren't opinions" ~ Kurt Cobain, Territorial Pissings

      by Subterranean on Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 01:23:45 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Exactly... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jennyL

        If we don't win this time, given the economic conditions and the unpopularity of the war in Iraq, it will reveal one truth that is, actually, far worse than the usual right-wing post-election "the Democrats are out of touch" meme -- it will mean that the average American, no matter how hard-hit by the economy, etc., has basically decided that no one is going to be able to improve their life, that their current lot is all that they can expect.  Given that assumption, it becomes easy to turn the election into a race about "small things" -- a personality contest, just as Student Council elections were (since the Student Council had no more power over what went on at school than the authority to schedule the pep rally or call for a bake sale).

        It means that American politics, for all intents and purposes, is no longer about the running of government and is now merely an entertaining  distraction along the lines of "American Presidential Idol."  And, if it remains so now, under these conditions, I see nothing that could happen in the future, for good or ill, that is going to change that attitude.

        •  Obama has run a good campaign (0+ / 0-)

          He is a far more charismatic and stronger candidate than Kerry or Gore, really a once-in-a-generation politician. In contrast, McCain POW-bio aside is completely bereft of ideas.
          If that is not good enough for the undecideds, I really have no hope for the country.

    •  Have you noticed (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Loose Fur

      Obama is what a risk communicator might term "exotic." Don't discount fear of the "other" as a factor for voters.  McCain sure hasn't

      "What is a political regime, when devoid of justice, but organized crime?" (Augustine, DCD)

      by Allen on Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 01:25:59 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  In a normal election... (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Allen, jennyL, Loose Fur, EcosseNJ

      ...the Democrats should win handily this year. But this is not a normal election with Obama as the Democratic nominee. As he himself recognized, he doesn't fit the typical profile of a presidential candidate, that's obvious.

      That's why you're seeing a neck-and-neck race. It's deplorable, but obviously race is a factor, perhaps an important factor. I still believe that, in the final moments of this election, the American electorate will rise above bigotry and do what's best for this country and for their own interest: elect Barack Obama.

  •  After all the lies of the Bush Administration (0+ / 0-)

    we cannot elect McCain  because we will get more of the same....lies, lies and more lies. Is that what we need...four more years of lies...do we like being lied to? I know I don't. What is the problem here? Just lie all you want and fool the people because the people are too stupid to know or care?
    We have got to stop the madness!

  •  Gallup's margin is now down to 2 points 47-45 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Loose Fur, EcosseNJ

    Overall this race really looks like a tie, with Obama holding his own during the flu epidemic known as the GOP bounce.

    The Palin virus has been contained and is weakening in strength each day. Her unfavorables are up to 40% on the Dkos tracker, and Obama has pivoted back to the issues.

    As far as substantive issues are concerned, the one where Obama can make the most headway is taxes.  McCain has lied about his record, and now the MSM has confirmed that he is in fact a liar who will say or do anything to get elected.  His interview on The View exposed his weaknesses.

    Obama has maintained his high personal rating and is coming across as honest and straight forward.  What he needs ios a full court press on the tax issue (ads please!!!) because I think the public will be receptive.

    Alternative rock with something to say: http://www.myspace.com/globalshakedown

    by khyber900 on Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 12:51:41 PM PDT

    •  Interesting metaphor (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Loose Fur

      Viruses don't actually, on a population level, weaken in "strength."  However, if the population is properly immunized, i.e., if enough of them come around to recognizing a lie as a lie . . .

      "What is a political regime, when devoid of justice, but organized crime?" (Augustine, DCD)

      by Allen on Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 01:27:52 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Does anyone actually look at the numbers? (0+ / 0-)

    I wonder.

    I look at some of the demographics

    http://www.dailykos.com/...

    •  Gary, thanks, I had a few questions, which you (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Gary Hurd

      addressed. Who knows what the answer is... Equation Doc thinks that Blacks & kids might turnout more, and I agree, but the lunatics might turn out in higher numbers too. Most important election of my life (actually, I'm 59, so it doesn't matter for me, but I've got a trophy wife and little ones that I adore).

      •  My guesstimate is (0+ / 0-)

        that the DK poll has slightly undercounted white males, and 18-29ers. The younger ones are thought to be more pro-Obama. Perversely, the last 3 youngen's I talked to about politics (1 Angelo and 2 nominally "Latino") were McCain supporters. The two "Latino" kids were brothers who both attend Rick Warren's right-wing mega church from a 3rd generation California family. My Spanish is much better than theirs.

        That is why statistics matter.

  •  Are you reaching voters that only have a cell (0+ / 0-)

    phone, or only those that have land lines?

  •  WTF is up with the independents? (0+ / 0-)
  •  The polls are rigged to show a close race for (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    soulsurfer99

    ratings.

  •  anecdote time! (0+ / 0-)

    Hi from a Scot in NJ,
    Just some anecdotes for you; one McCain sign in our area (Princeton-West Windsor) plus several Obama signs, tons of stickers and it's not even reached that mid-October bit where all the signs usually come out

    Secondly my parents-in-law (Red voters, Catholic prolife, sometimes 3 times a weekend church goers) are not voting for them, why?

    dad - she has no experience, he's too old longterm.

    mother - to her McCain is an adulterer and she still thinks erm.. a womans place is in the home sotospeak, aye aye aye!

    Okay, we're blue NJ, but I hope it resounds elsewhere and given their attitudes in the past, it's quite astounding... both hate GWB as well...

    Regards all!

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