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Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 9/17-18. Likely voters. MoE 5%.

Luetkemeyer (R) 49  
Baker (D) 40

Full crosstabs below the fold. Not bad numbers at all for Democrat Judy Baker, particularly in an R+6.5 district where Obama is getting beaten quite badly, 56-37. This is roughly comparable to Kerry's performance in the district, where he lost 59-41.

All the polling released so far - a Baker internal, a SurveyUSA poll, and now Research 2000 - has shown Baker getting around 40%. It seems that when leaners are not pushed, Republican Blaine Luetkemeyer is also around 40%...and when leaners are pushed, his numbers jump 9-10 points.

Still, Luetkemeyer's advantage in this poll is due largely to superior name recognition and a natural district advantage as a Republican. Leaners breaking his way also indicates his support is somewhat soft.

Luetkemeyer escaped a pretty ugly primary on the GOP side (one featuring our dear friend Brock Olivo), but appears to have shrugged off any ill effects from it; his favorable/unfavorables are at  pretty solid 45/28, and Republicans in particular love him. Baker's favorables are also pretty good; 37% favorable, 24% unfavorable. Notably, Baker gets higher marks from Republicans than Luetkemeyer does from Democrats.

The polling also indicates that the largest group of undecideds is among women, 8% of women voters. Somewhat surprisingly, Luetkemeyer merits a small edge among women (45-42), but if Baker does catch him, it will likely be in this demographic.

Baker's close enough, and well enough liked in the district, to win this race, but she needs to close very strong. She needs to pull solidly ahead among women voters in the district, where she may currently be underperforming slightly thanks to Sarah Palin. Both campaigns have gone on the air, so it's quite possible there will be significant movement in this race, one way or the other, over the next month.

MO-NINTH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT POLL – SEPTEMBER 2008
                                                                 
This survey was conducted by Research 2000 of Rockville, Maryland. A total of 400 likely voters in the Ninth Congressional District were interviewed by telephone between September 17 and September 18, 2008.

Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the district. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by district.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 5% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.


SAMPLE FIGURES:

Men                  192 (48%)
Women                208 (52%)

Democrats            124 (31%)
Republicans          155 (39%)
Independents/Other   121 (30%)

18-29                 70 (18%)
30-44                129 (32%)
45-59                123 (31%)
60+                   78 (19%)


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Blaine Luetkemeyer? (Iffavorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 11%         34%         18%         10%         27%

MEN                 13%         37%         17%          9%         24%
WOMEN                9%         31%         19%         11%         30%

DEMOCRATS            6%         22%         33%         18%         21%
REPUBLICANS         18%         46%          8%          5%         23%
INDEPENDENTS         9%         32%         15%          9%         35%

18-29                8%         31%         21%         12%         28%
30-44               12%         36%         16%          9%         27%
45-59               10%         33%         19%         11%         27%
60+                 14%         37%         16%          8%         25%


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Judy Baker? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                  8%         29%         16%          8%         39%

MEN                  7%         27%         18%          9%         39%
WOMEN                9%         31%         14%          7%         39%

DEMOCRATS           13%         41%         10%          3%         33%
REPUBLICANS          5%         20%         22%         13%         40%
INDEPENDENTS         8%         28%         15%          7%         42%

18-29               10%         32%         13%          6%         39%
30-44                7%         27%         18%          9%         39%
45-59                9%         30%         14%          7%         40%
60+                  6%         27%         19%         10%         38%


QUESTION: If the election for Congress were held today would you vote for Judy Baker the Democrat or Blaine Luetkemeyer the Republican?

                LUETKEMEYER    BAKER       OTHER       UNDECIDED  

ALL                 49%         40%          6%          5%

MEN                 53%         38%          7%          2%
WOMEN               45%         42%          5%          8%

DEMOCRATS           11%         81%          4%          4%
REPUBLICANS         80%          7%          6%          7%
INDEPENDENTS        49%         41%          7%          3%

18-29               45%         43%          5%          7%
30-44               53%         38%          7%          2%
45-59               47%         41%          7%          5%
60+                 51%         39%          5%          5%


QUESTION: If the election for President were held today would you vote for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin or another candidate?

                   MCCAIN      OBAMA       OTHER       UNDECIDED  

ALL                 56%         37%          3%          4%

MEN                 61%         34%          3%          2%
WOMEN               51%         40%          3%          6%

DEMOCRATS           18%         76%          3%          3%
REPUBLICANS         85%          8%          2%          5%
OTHER               58%         34%          3%          5%

18-29               53%         41%          3%          3%
30-44               57%         35%          4%          4%
45-59               56%         38%          3%          3%
60+                 58%         34%          1%          7%

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Sat Sep 20, 2008 at 11:30 AM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Wake UP Missouri !!! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    pedmom

    "The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants." -Thomas Jefferson

    by ezdidit on Sat Sep 20, 2008 at 11:31:38 AM PDT

  •  In this race (0+ / 0-)

    Crazy Sarah might help as a contrast to reasonable, sane Baker

  •  If anyone wants to donate to Judy (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    pedmom, kudgel

    her ACTBlue page is right here.

  •  We need to help Paul Kanjorski (PA-11) (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    WayneNight

    He's currently facing a very strong challenge from rabid anti-immigrant Lou Barletta in Pennsylvania's 11th distict.  Many polls have shown him behind.  I don't know about you, but I'd rather not lose any seats this cycle.

    Pragmatic progressivism is the future.

    by Pragmaticus on Sat Sep 20, 2008 at 11:59:07 AM PDT

    •  I hope Kanjorski... (0+ / 0-)

      ...can pull it off, but I have my doubts.  He doesn't seem to be a very good campaigner.  Certainly not against someone who's playing off of peoples hatreds.

      I really think that he and Nick Lampson (in Texas) are the two Dem Congressmen who are almost certainly not going to be around in 2009.

  •  Undervalued?? (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Blueiz, WayneNight, pedmom, JesusFists

    Some quick thoughts. Baker is behind by nine in the district while in this district only Obama is behind by 19. First this illustrates why the work we are doing here in Mid Missouri especially in Columbia is so important to make Missouri possible. Secondly looking at the demographic break down the the 18 - 29 age group strikes me as possibly being low. Now I don't pretend to be a statistician or know the historical averages right off. However, personal experience which can be overweighted way too easy tells me there is going to be a stronger turnout in this category. New registrations are up. The Universty population is very active and excited by the race. The Obama campaign is working night and day to locate, identify and mobilize this group. My suspicion is that in this race there is a good chance that even though Obama appears to be drag in the current polling he will actually help Baker on election day. Obama and Nixon are going to be very attractive top of the ticket people to this group of voters and may well carry on down the line

  •  Even if we don't win here... (0+ / 0-)

    ...at least we're tying up GOP money in a GOP majority district.

    It sure as hell beats being in a situation where they can send that cash to Lou Barletta, or some other wingnut taking on an incumbent Dem.

  •  39R/31D? (0+ / 0-)

    c'mon.. that's probably a few points too generous to Republicans.

    But Baker has to knock down Luetkemeyer's favorability numbers and boost her own numbers.

    "Our country right or wrong. When right, to be kept right; when wrong, to be put right" - Carl Schurz

    by RBH on Sat Sep 20, 2008 at 03:32:22 PM PDT

  •  Judy just needs to get her name out there (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    charliestl

    The numbers show that she's quite popular, and her 15 point net gain in unfavorables among the opposing party shows that she has major downticket crossover potential.  She just needs the support of good progressives like us to push her over the top.  Hint, hint, Orange to Blue!

  •  Hmm... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JesusFists

    with mine being the 13th comment in this diary, could this be the least-commented front page diary in years?

    What's going on here, people?  Congress is still a pretty damn important thing, even with the presidential race sucking up most of the air.  Or was everyone watching college football today?

  •  Population vs Palin (0+ / 0-)

    Lets just say that if this district had Sarah Palin in it she would be right at home.  They might even call this district Kunning Khrist Kronies, or Nockoff Astringent Zootsuits International. This is the district that Jeff Foxworthy gets a lot of material from. A LOT!

    •  Uh, that's quite an exaggeration (0+ / 0-)

      As a resident of Columbia, the population center of the 9th District, I can say that we're not at all like that stereotype.  Besides the fact that Foxworthy is a Georgian, it's also a fact that northern Missouri is more rural farming communities than "redneck," which is more characteristic of the southern half of the state.  I should know, as I spent my adolescence in the Ozarks (south-central Missouri for me), where there actually were active branches of the KKK not long ago, and probably today still.  Columbia in particular is quite progressive thanks largely to the University of Missouri, and we have an active peace / progressive movement that even managed to pass city referendums in 2004 that legalized medical marijuana and reduced small possession to a misdemeanor.  Hardly Wasilla, right?  The rural areas lean right, of course, just as they do in Iowa or Illinois or nearly anyplace else, but they're certainly not the caricatures you present.  Even if this were West Virginia, though, you'd be wrong in attempting to write off an entire population as ignorant and bigoted.

      By the way, the crazy "redneck" home of my youth is represented by Ike Skelton, a Democrat.

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