It's been a few days since Iowa, enough time for sober reflection. Iowa was a shock, in several respects. Nobody called it right.
Specifically, nobody here called it right. It's not the first time that's happened, either; in fact, it seems to happen quite regularly... the Democrats were going to make huge gains in the 2002 elections -- remember that one?
That's something worth talking about. The dKos community represents an incredible concentration of political acumen. We should be able to do something about getting blindsided so often.
In the software development company where I work, after a new release is sent out the door we hold what we call a "Key Learnings Session," in which we all get together and brainstorm about what went wrong, what went right, and how we might be able to improve the process to do an even better job next time.
So here's a place to think about process. Here are a couple of questions to start off with, but feel free to suggest others:
- How do political junkies like us get out of step with what real live voters are thinking, despite our compulsive addiction to polls? Can anyone suggest other important sources and trends we should be paying attention to, as a reality check?
- What's the difference between a consensus grounded in data, and groupthink? What are the warning signs when wishful thinking, or excessive fearfulness, is warping the common judgment?
An example. Right now, there are a lot of people saying here that Dean is, pick one:
- already dead
- fatally wounded
- on the critical list with a very doubtful prognosis
- or, at the very least, in dire need of the intensive care ward.
Is this true? Or is it a manic-depressive overreaction to the end of "Dean is inevitable"?
Now... you could argue this one either way. dKos could collectively be right this time, or, it could be another case of getting it wrong. Maybe six months from now Dean's yell will be remembered, if at all, as a minor blip, or maybe it will indeed be seen, as people are predicting now, as Dean's critical "jump the shark" turning point. Time will either confirm the prediction, or reveal it as wrong; I mention it only as an instance of a group judgment that has not been proven, either way -- one where we don't yet have the benefit of hindsight.
What I want to talk about here is not which view is right, so much as... can we, perhaps, learn to notice when a group mentality is taking hold? Are there symptoms that should make us suspicious? And, very important -- can we figure out some corrective measures? Some reality checks?
I don't want to be led astray and start believing things that aren't true. I suspect no-one else here wants that, either. There are a whole lot of very bright people here. Let's see if, together, we can come up with a few ways to be right more often.