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We're finding with our first round of House polling that things are generally tough for the challenger party. We're playing offense in mostly Republican districts, always against better-known and better-funded Republicans. It's a tripple-whammy. But it's one we faced and overcame in 2006 as well, in districts all around the country. So all our current House polling serves more as baseline polling as the House campaigns truly gear up. Most of these races will be polled one more time in late October to gauge movement and momentum.

In any case, while most of our first-round House polls have given us reason to be positive, none so far have given us such clearly awesome news as this one:

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 9/23-25. Likely voters. MoE 5% (No trend lines)

McClintock (R) 41
Brown (D) 46

This is an open seat race, with McClintock a carpet-bagging but well-known conservative figure in California. Democrat Charlie Brown came close to upsetting the corrupt outgoing congressman John Doolittle in 2006, and Republicans pushed him out to improve their chances in the district. But the GOP primary was ugly, and it appears that the district wasn't just upset at Doolittle's shenanigans. They truly do appear to want change.

Brown peels away 13 percent of Republicans in this heavily Republican district (PVI R+10.9), which Bush won 61-37 in 2004. He's also killing with Independents, winning them 49-33. And while the nine percent of undecided Republicans will likely fall in line, the 10 percent of undecided Independents and five percent of undecided Republicans would probably provide the winning margin today.

Winning this district would be a political shocker. Keep this in mind -- only five Democrats (out of 236) hold seats more conservative than this one. And we're running a pro-choice, pro-environment, pro-comprehensive immigration reform, and pro-getting our troops home from Iraq (where his son is currently serving). He's not a Blue Dog in the making, but a honest-to-goodness Democrat running a Democratic campaign in a supposedly hostile district (McCain beats Obama 51-39 in this poll).

Charlie Brown is not just a Democrat, he's a better Democrat, and someone we are thrilled to have on our Orange to Blue ActBlue page. We've got the lead, Doolittle is on the run. Let's help Charlie have the resources to close this thing out. Contribute to his campaign today.

Full crosstabs under the fold.

This survey was conducted by Research 2000 of Rockville, Maryland. A total of 400 likely voters in the Fourth Congressional District were interviewed by telephone between September 23 and September 25, 2008.

Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the district. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by district.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 5% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.


Men                  193 (48%)
Women                207 (52%)

Democrats            132 (33%)
Republicans          172 (43%)
Independents/Other    96 (24%)

18-29                 71 (18%)
30-44                133 (33%)
45-59                120 (30%)
60+                   76 (19%)

QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Tom McClintock? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                  9%         32%         28%          7%         24%

MEN                 10%         35%         26%          6%         23%
WOMEN                8%         29%         30%          8%         25%

DEMOCRATS            4%         23%         44%         12%         17%
REPUBLICANS         14%         40%         17%          4%         25%
INDEPENDENTS         8%         30%         26%          4%         32%

18-29                8%         30%         32%          8%         22%
30-44               10%         34%         26%          7%         23%
45-59                9%         32%         29%          7%         23%
60+                  9%         32%         25%          6%         28%

QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Charlie Brown? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 11%         33%         16%          9%         31%

MEN                 10%         31%         19%         11%         29%
WOMEN               12%         35%         13%          7%         33%

DEMOCRATS           19%         48%          6%          4%         23%
REPUBLICANS          5%         21%         26%         14%         34%
INDEPENDENTS        10%         32%         13%          8%         37%

18-29               13%         36%         14%          7%         30%
30-44               10%         32%         17%         10%         31%
45-59               12%         34%         15%          9%         30%
60+                  8%         30%         18%         10%         34%

QUESTION: If the election for Congress were held today would you vote for Charlie Brown the Democrat or Tom McClintock the Republican?

                   BROWN       MCCLINTOCK  OTHER       UNDECIDED  

ALL                 46%         41%          5%          8%

MEN                 42%         46%          7%          5%
WOMEN               50%         36%          3%         11%

DEMOCRATS           86%          7%          2%          5%
REPUBLICANS         13%         72%          6%          9%
INDEPENDENTS        49%         33%          8%         10%

18-29               49%         38%          3%         10%
30-44               45%         43%          7%          5%
45-59               47%         40%          6%          7%
60+                 43%         44%          4%          9%

QUESTION: If the election for President were held today would you vote for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin or another candidate?

                   MCCAIN      OBAMA       OTHER       UNDECIDED  

ALL                 51%         39%          5%          5%

MEN                 54%         36%          6%          4%
WOMEN               48%         42%          4%          6%

DEMOCRATS           12%         81%          4%          3%
REPUBLICANS         83%          6%          5%          6%
OTHER               48%         39%          7%          6%

18-29               48%         43%          3%          6%
30-44               53%         37%          6%          4%
45-59               49%         39%          6%          6%
60+                 54%         37%          5%          4%

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 04:49 PM PDT.

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