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Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 9/23-25. Likely voters. MoE 5% (No trend lines)

Diaz-Balart (R) 45
Garcia (D) 41

These are awesome numbers. Diaz-Balart is well under 50 percent, which of course is a danger sign for any incumbent. But Diaz-Balart is also fighting against the changing trends in this district and a blockbuster Obama operation.

And Democrat Joe Garcia? He's far outpacing his district's partisan leanings. Obama loses the district 53-38, so he's outperforming the top of the ticket by 11 points. As Obama narrows the gap, Garcia will get a boost. And that gap is being narrowed.

In an election for President of the United States in Florida today, 09/29/08, three weeks till early voting begins, Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain tie, according to a SurveyUSA poll [...] McCain gets 48% today, Obama 47%, an outcome within the survey’s margin of sampling error [...] Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released 09/18/08, McCain has lost 11 points among Florida men. McCain had led by 10 among men, now trails by 1. Obama is up in Southeast Florida, which includes Miami and Fort Lauderdale, where Obama had led by 12, but now leads by 22. McCain is up in Central Florida, which includes Orlando, where McCain and Obama had been tied, but McCain now leads by 14. In Southwest Florida, which includes Tampa, McCain had let by 14, now leads by 4.

This district is sort of the southern tip of the state, minus the Miami coast, so it seems to incorporate parts of both southeastern and southwestern Florida per SUSA's categories. Either way, the trendlines for Obama are solid and poor for McCain, and that's going to hurt the GOP effort not just here in FL-25, but in neighboring FL-18 (and O2B candidate Annette Taddeo) as well as FL-21 and Democratic challenger Raul Martinez against the other Diaz-Balart brother.

Both Diaz-Balart brothers are now facing well-funded top-tier Demcoratic challengers in a hostile political climate, in districts that are changing dramatically demographically. Claims that their Democrats are "communists", successful in the past, are falling on deaf ears this year. An influx of non-Cuban Latinos has diluted the potency of the issue, as has the growing percentage of younger post-revolution Cuban Americans, who are more interested in mainstream issues (like the economy and Iraq) than their parents' Cuba obsession.

With numbers like these, it's clear that this is one of our top O2B opportunities this cycle. Give, if you can, to Joe Garcia via our O2B fundraising page. Remember, every contribution is an anvil. Diaz-Balart is foundering. Throw him an anvil or two.

FL-25 CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT POLL – SEPTEMBER 2008
                                                                 
This survey was conducted by Research 2000 of Rockville, Maryland. A total of 400 likely voters in the Twenty-fifth Congressional District were interviewed by telephone between September 23 and September 25, 2008.

Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the district. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by district.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 5% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.


SAMPLE FIGURES:

Men                  197 (49%)
Women                203 (51%)

Democrats            135 (34%)
Republicans          148 (37%)
Independents/Other   117 (29%)

White                224 (56%)
Hispanic             148 (37%)
Black                 20 (5%)
Other                  8 (2%)

18-29                 72 (18%)
30-44                128 (32%)
45-59                116 (29%)
60+                   84 (21%)


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mario Diaz-Balart? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 11%         34%         24%         10%         21%

MEN                 13%         36%         22%          9%         20%
WOMEN                9%         32%         26%         11%         22%

DEMOCRATS            6%         22%         37%         15%         20%
REPUBLICANS         17%         47%         12%          5%         19%
INDEPENDENTS        10%         31%         25%         11%         23%

18-29                9%         30%         27%         12%         22%
30-44               13%         36%         22%          8%         21%
45-59               12%         35%         23%         10%         20%
60+                 11%         35%         24%         11%         19%


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Joe Garcia? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 12%         35%         22%          7%         24%

MEN                 11%         33%         25%          8%         23%
WOMEN               13%         37%         19%          6%         25%

DEMOCRATS           18%         46%         13%          3%         20%
REPUBLICANS          6%         24%         32%         12%         26%
INDEPENDENTS        13%         36%         19%          5%         27%

18-29               14%         38%         18%          5%         25%
30-44               11%         33%         25%         10%         21%
45-59               12%         34%         23%          7%         24%
60+                 11%         35%         23%          6%         25%


QUESTION: If the election for Congress were held today would you vote for Joe Garcia the Democrat or Mario Diaz-Balart the Republican?

                   DIAZ-BALART GARCIA      OTHER       UNDECIDED  

ALL                 45%         41%          1%         13%

MEN                 48%         37%          1%         14%
WOMEN               42%         45%          1%         12%

DEMOCRATS           10%         82%         -            8%
REPUBLICANS         80%          6%          1%         13%
INDEPENDENTS        42%         38%          2%         18%

WHITE               46%         40%          1%         13%
HISPANIC            48%         41%          1%         10%
BLACK                6%         63%          -          31%

18-29               42%         45%          1%         12%
30-44               47%         39%          1%         13%
45-59               46%         40%          1%         13%
60+                 44%         41%          1%         14%


QUESTION: If the election for President were held today would you vote for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin or another candidate?

                   MCCAIN      OBAMA       OTHER       UNDECIDED  

ALL                 53%         38%          3%          6%

MEN                 56%         37%          4%          3%
WOMEN               50%         39%          2%          9%

DEMOCRATS           17%         74%          3%          6%
REPUBLICANS         86%          5%          3%          6%
OTHER               52%         39%          4%          5%

18-29               49%         42%          2%          7%
30-44               56%         36%          3%          5%
45-59               54%         38%          3%          5%
60+                 53%         37%          3%          7%

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 02:10 PM PDT.

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