Well today we continue with gubernatorial races in 2009-2010. Todays diary is the second half of Dec 31 diary. Then we talk about the hardest gubernatorial races finding in what of they democratic party can have more chance of win the race. And with we can see in this link, until now, Nevada and Arizona's races appear like more favourables:
2009-2010 ELECTIONS: Guvernatorial races in red states with republican incumbent or open seat
(The poll of this link continue open)
All other races of the poll seems are viewed like so unfavourables when we not tell names like candidates, when we let the race open in democratic side. Only get for this races see if maybe any of possible strong candidates can make the feel of people about any of this races change or not. If any of this candidates can make out any race of Likely or Safe Republican Levels.
Last Update: Mar 6, 2009. This diary was write before the change of KS governor and the change in WY term limits. After that i write a diary for WY-Gov race. The race in KS get same because the new governor will not run for reelection.
For help to voters, i will remember what was these hard governatorial races:
WY-Gov: Open seat. D Freudenthal (D-1950) win in 2006 with 70%.
TN-Gov: Open seat. P Bredesen (D-1943) win in 2006 with 69%.
OK-Gov: Open seat. B Henry (D-1963) win in 2006 with 66%.
KS-Gov: Open seat. K Sebelius (D-1948) win in 2006 with 58%. S Brownback (R-1956) like run.
TX-Gov: Open seat?. R Perry (R-1950) win in 2006 with 39%. K Hutchison (R-1943) like run.
SC-Gov: Open seat. M Sanford (R-1960) win in 2006 with 55%.
GA-Gov: Open seat. S Perdue (R-1946) win in 2006 with 58%.
AL-Gov: Open seat. B Riley (R-1944) win in 2006 with 58%.
SD-Gov: Open seat. M Rounds (R-1954) win in 2006 with 62%.
NE-Gov: Open seat. D Heineman (R-1948) win in 2006 with 73%.
NV-Gov: Incumbent J Gibbons (R-1944) win in 2006 with 48%.
AZ-Gov: Incumbent J Brewer (R-19??) republican candidate lost in 2006 with 35%.
AK-Gov: Incumbent S Palin (R-1964) win in 2006 with 48%.
FL-Gov: Incumbent C Christ (R-1956) win in 2006 with 52%.
ID-Gov: Incumbent B Otter (R-1942) win in 2006 with 53%.
I not will include today names from Nevada and Arizona, because these gubernatorial races will have their diary, but i will include the strong possible names for all others.
Much of the names what appear in todays poll for these states, appear too when we talk about senate race, but their chance of win not was very high, like you can see in next link:
2009-2010 ELECTIONS: Senate. For find more of 60 seats in 2010
(All the polls for senate are open too)
And because the chance of win of this possible candidates for senate seems so low, i think can be interesting check these names for gubernatorial races, where they are gubernatorial races in same year.
2009-2010 ELECTIONS: All gubernatorial races.
In a 0-10 scale, like this:
--- 00,000 ---
Safe Republican
--- 01,429 ---
Likely Republican
--- 02,857 ---
Leans Republican
--- 04,286 ---
Toss-Up
--- 05,714 ---
Leans Democratic
--- 07,142 ---
Likely Democratic
--- 08,571 ---
Safe Democratic
--- 10,000 ---
The states with democratic incumbents what seems more easy for win again are:
NH-Gov: Incumbent J Lynch (D-1952) win in 2008 with 70%.
CO-Gov: Incumbent W Ritter (D-1956) win in 2006 with 56%.
IA-Gov: Incumbent C Culver (D-1966) win in 2006 with 54%.
WI-Gov: Incumbent J Doyle (D-1945) win in 2006 with 53%.
MA-Gov: Incumbent D Patrick (D-1956) win in 2006 with 55%.
We can see results for these states in next link:
2009-2010 ELECTIONS: Gubernatorial races. Democratic incumbents are safe?
More interesting races:
AR-Gov: Open R vs M Beebe (D-1946) ? after 13 votes = 09,231 => Safe Democratic
MD-Gov: R Ehrlich (R-1957) vs M O'Malley (D-1963) ? af 16 votes = 08,750 => Safe Democratic
IL-Gov: Open R vs P Quinn (D-1948) ? after 21 votes = 08,571 => Safe Democratic
NY-Gov: R Giuliani (R-1944) vs A Cuomo (D-1957) ? af 18 votes = 08,333 => Likely Democratic
OR-Gov: G Smith (R-1952) vs J Kitzhaber (D-1947) ? af 12 votes = 08,194 => Likely Democratic
2 OR-Gov: G Smith (R-1952) vs ? after 06 votes = 08,056 => Likely Democratic
OH-Gov: M DeWine (R-1947) vs T Strickland (D-1941) ? af 15 votes = 07,889 => Likely Democr
CA-Gov: Open R vs J Brown (D-1938) ? after 32 votes = 07,865 => Likely Democratic
ME-Gov: Open R vs ? after 12 votes = 07,778 => Likely Democratic
HI-Gov: J Aiona (R-1955) vs N Abercrombie (D-1938) ? af 11 votes = 07,727 => Likely Democr
VT-Gov: J Douglas (R-1951) vs H Dean (D-1948) ? aft 30 votes = 07,667 => Likely Democratic
2 HI-Gov: J Aiona (R-1955) vs ? after 16 votes = 07,396 => Likely Democratic
NJ-Gov: C Christie (R-1962) vs J Corzine (D- 1947) ? af 17 votes = 07,353 => Likely Democratic
NM-Gov: Open R vs D Denish (D-1949) ? after 22 votes = 07,273 => Likely Democratic
2 OH-Gov: M DeWine (R-1947) vs ? after 12 votes = 07,083 => Leans Democratic
2 CA-Gov: Open R vs ? after 44 votes = 07,045 => Leans Democratic
2 NY-Gov: R Giuliani (R-1944) vs D Paterson (D-1954) ? af 33 votes = 06,768 => Leans Democr
NV-Gov: J Gibbons (R-1944) vs ? after 21 votes = 06,746 => Leans Democratic
RI-Gov: Open R vs ? after 12 votes = 06,528 => Leans Democratic
PA-Gov: Open R vs ? after 15 votes = 06,000 => Leans Democratic
MI-Gov: Open R vs ? after 30 votes = 05,889 => Leans Democratic
VA-Gov: R McDonnell (R-1954) vs ? after 27 votes = 05,494 => Toss-Up
AZ-Gov: J Brewer (R-1944) vs ? after 18 votes = 04,907 => Toss-Up
MN-Gov: T Pawlenty (R-1960) vs M Dayton (D-1947) ? after 39 votes = 04,573 => Toss-Up
2 VT-Gov: J Douglas (R-1951) vs ? after 18 votes = 04,352 => Toss-Up
FL-Gov: C Crist (R-1956) vs B Graham (D-1936) ? after 22 votes = 03,561 => Leans Republican
CT-Gov: J Rell (R-1946) vs ? after 33 votes = 03,232 => Leans Republican
And for see about other difficult races for democrats like:
TN-Gov: Open seat. P Bredesen (D-1943) win in 2006 with 69%.
OK-Gov: Open seat. B Henry (D-1963) win in 2006 with 66%.
TX-Gov: Open seat?. R Perry (R-1950) win in 2006 with 39%. K Hutchison (R-1943) like run.
WY-Gov: Open seat. D Freudenthal (D-1950) win in 2006 with 70%.
KS-Gov: Open seat. K Sebelius (D-1948) win in 2006 with 58%. S Brownback (R-1956) like run.
SC-Gov: Open seat. M Sanford (R-1960) win in 2006 with 55%.
GA-Gov: Open seat. S Perdue (R-1946) win in 2006 with 58%.
AL-Gov: Open seat. B Riley (R-1944) win in 2006 with 58%.
SD-Gov: Open seat. M Rounds (R-1954) win in 2006 with 62%.
AK-Gov: Incumbent S Palin (R-1964) win in 2006 with 48%.
ID-Gov: Incumbent B Otter (R-1942) win in 2006 with 53%.
NE-Gov: Incumbent D Heineman (R-1948) win in 2006 with 73%.
visit next diaries:
2009-2010 ELECTIONS: Guvernatorial races in red states with republican incumbent or open seat
2009-2010 ELECTIONS: Gubernatorial races in red states with republican incumbent or open seat II
2009-2010 ELECTIONS: Hardest gubernatorial races.
All the polls are open if you like to vote.
PS: This diary will be updated when the number of votes go up and when end the procedure.