I just watched the nine o'clock news here in Athens. More than half the newscast was focused on the events in Gaza, despite a recent terrorist attack on Greek police which resulted in near fatal injuries to a 20 year old officer. Greece traditionally sides with the Palestinians but the quality of the reporting was fairly high and some of the commentary extremely interesting. Some of the things which struck me:
- The on site reporter claimed that Hamas would have finished last if elections were held this month in the Palestinian territories. That is, before the incursion. Now of course, most Palestinians have rallied to the one force fighting back. Thus if the intent of the Israeli incursion is to weaken Hamas, it has failed, at least on the political level.
Striking the UN school is not likely to help. In a similar occurrence during the war with Hizbollah two years ago, Israel declared a two day ceasefire immediately thereafter but it looks like that might not be the case this time since Israel just denied a request to allow foreign nationals to leave the Gaza territory tomorrow, citing "security concerns" whereas just a few days ago in the midst of heavy fighting they allowed foreigners to leave. This may indicate that fighting will intensify tomorrow.
To those suspicious of Israeli intentions, strengthening Hamas may be an intended consequence since it places roadblocks in the path of the peace process.
- The second thing that really jumped out was the comments by the Turkish PM, Recep Tayyip Erdogan. From my memory: "I speak as a descendant of the Ottomans who gave you sanctuary when you were persecuted and driven out ... unacceptable ... savage ... perpetrating inhuman actions which would bring it to self-destruction ... Allah will sooner or later punish those who transgress the rights of innocents.”
An unintended consequence of the Gaza incursion could be the loss of the alliance with Turkey.
Furthermore, the stability of Egypt could be eroded if the fighting goes on for too much longer. Personal sources tell me that the security forces in Egypt are extremely anxious. Mubarak is walking on eggshells as it is. The Middle East would like quite different with the Muslim Brotherhood in charge.
All speculation mine. Source for all but the final paragraph, ERT (Greek state television).