This diary is an illustration of what I think an ideal VA map for the Democrats would be like. I know that, unless they hold onto to the Governorship and win the State House of Delegates in 2009, the Democrats won't have complete control. But I am going to devise what I think would be a good map for the Democrats.
More beneath the fold.
First of all here is a vote total by Congressional district:
VA-1: Obama 47%, McCain 51%
VA-2: Obama 50%, McCain 48%
VA-3: Obama 75%, McCain 23%
VA-4: Obama 50%, McCain 48%
VA-5: Obama 48%, McCain 50%
VA-6: Obama 41%, McCain 56%
VA-7: Obama 45%, McCain: 53%
VA-8: Obama 69%, McCain 29%
VA-9 Obama 39%, McCain 58%
VA-10: Obama 52%, McCain 46%
VA-11: Obama 57%, McCain 42%
At the outset I think that there are two Republicans whose districts could easily be eliminated or altered to be more friendly to the Democrats. They are Randy Forbes of VA-4 and Frank Wolf of VA-10. Both Republicans represent districts that a Democrat could win under better conditions. The other observation is that Bobby Scott's district, which stretches from Richmond to Norfolk, is way too Democratic. It also has an African-American population of 56%.
So I first focus on the Hampton Roads area. First of all I think that VA-3 can give some of its Black Hampton Roads precincts to VA-2 or to VA-4. What I would first do is have VA-3 perhaps pick up the independent city of Colonial Heights from VA-4. I would also have it pick up the independent city of Colonial Heights. I would also give it Isle of Wight f County. I might even have it pick up a small part of Lousia, Chesterfield, Hanover, and Henrico counties. I would make it a 55-60% Democratic district down from what it is today.
VA-4 is the next district that I would reform. What I would do is have it get rid of Colonial Heights and Powhatan Counties. I would give it back the small part of VA Beach that was in the district in the 1990s. I would also take away Isle of Wight County and try to gain a few Black Precincts from Norfolk, Hampton, and Portsmouth.
VA-1 is the district that is left over in the region and I would probably give it back the Eastern Shore. I would take Poquson out of it and try to move it to the 3rd. Otherwise I would leave it the way it is right now since I'm not sure what I could to make it more friendly to the Democrats otherwise. Or I might have it extend into some of the territory where VA-7 to take in every Republican county in places like Culpepper.
VA-7 was much friendlier to Obama than I thought. My idea is to make this the super-Republican suburban district. I would add in all of Lousia and Powhatan counties. I would add in Colonial Heights to this district. Every Republican precinct between the DC area and Richmond would go here and VA-1. I would make both districts close to 65-70% Republican.
VA-5 needs to be stronger to protect Tom Periello. What I might do is give heavily Republican Appomattox County to VA-6. I would also try to add Raphhanock County to VA-5 if possible. I would also also add Lynchburg and Roanoake to this district. VA-6 would basically then take in the entire northern part of VA and pick up what is now in VA-10.
VA-9 is probably a lost cause when Rick Boucher retires. I would consider this district to be safely Republican. Although perhaps a SWVA Democrat could win there, given that it trended heavily against Obama, its current form is acceptable. While race could have been a factor, the Fighting Ninth seems to be trending to the far right.
Northern VA is a key area with one major goal: eliminating Frank Wolf. What I would do is take Arlington County north of 66 and put it in VA-10. VA-10 would lose its rural precincts west of Loudoun and Prince William Counties. Jim Moran can easily give up some territory.
VA-8 would then move further south toward Stafford County and Fredricksburg. What it would lose in Arlington County, I would give it the more conservative parts of Stafford and Prince William County. But I would try to make VA-8 a 60% Democratic district. It would keep the southern part of Arlington County, most of Alexandria, and southern Fairfax County. I'd also let it keep its arm into Reston. This district would kind of zig-zag, but it would be safe for him.
Gerry Conneally probably doesn't need much help, although I would add Falls Church and a small part of Alexandria to VA-11. Otherwise his district is probably Democratic enough to re-elect him.