I have a theory about the stimulus package. Obama is playing the media, Obama is playing the Democrats, and Obama is playing the Republicans. In the end, we'll get a progressive stimulus package but it's going to take some sneaky political maneuvering to get there.
Follow me after the lead and I'll explain.
We all know that "liberal" and "big spender" are dirty words. Yes, the economy is bad enough that people are willing to spend money to create jobs and build our infrastructure. But, they're still dirty words, which is why Drudge was running all those huge "We'll spend our way out of this" headlines yesterday.
So, Obama's goal has always been not to look like the big liberal that he is. He appeals to notions of unity, bipartisanship, etc. That's what he's doing here.
Check it. Obama proposes a very sizable stimulus and includes almost half of it to tax cuts to appease Republicans. What does he get out of this? Well, Republican support. Support of the average American who always wants tax cuts. And, mostly, he gets to look like he is the ultimate non-partisan person who is willing to work with both sides. And he's gotten Republicans to basically concede that we need to spend at least 700B.
But, where does it go from here? Well, he knows that the "out" liberals such as Kerry will have no problem pushing for their goals. And, the Democrats control the house and Senate so obviously they will be able to bargain more towards their direction. So, they will whittle the tax cuts down to something more reasonable. Obama will have to "negotiate" and "work with them" to come to consensus so the plan can pass.
Simultaneously, though $700B is a huge number, it is on the low-end of what he knows we need so he made it so small that all the top economists (from both sides of the aisle) will criticize it as not doing enough. He'll let this simmer and the American people will want him to do MORE. So, what will he do? Of course, he's the guy who listens to advice and isn't stubborn and is willing to work with both sides, so he'll agree to a plan that is over $1T.
In the end, Obama will get a stimulus plan that is MUCH higher than he proposed, that includes less tax cuts than he proposed, but yet HE doesn't have to come off as the liberal in all of it. He can maintain his image as a bipartisan pragmatist. And, on top of it, the American people will be more "sold" on the plan because of all the news coverage over it and experts saying he needs to do more more more.
It's really a win, win. It takes a little longer, but Obama gets to win politically and gets the stimulus package that we ultimately need. All without being labeled the big spender or the liberal!
Note/Update: Regarding the tax cuts. Many of you are against them and you're right - I don't think it will do much to "stimulate" the economy. But, it will certainly help the average person at least some. People like Aravosis have been dissing the notion that $20 a paycheck helps, but hey, that buys milk, cereal, eggs, bread and bologna! To the poor, that's a lot. But really, think of it this way: Obama promised a tax cut during his campaign. Over and over and over. McCain said he wouldn't do it. If Obama doesn't give a tax cut, then that's all we'll hear about in 2012. So, he can either do it now or do it later. The benefit of doing it now in the stimulus package is that he gets TWO uses out of it. 1) He gets to make good on a campaign promise and 2) he gets to use it as a negotiation tool to get the Republicans to support big infrastructure spending. If he separates it and does it later, then he only gets one use out of it.
Second Update: I just want to note that in order for this strategy to work, it means that we progressives need to keep saying that the tax cuts are too high and the package too low. We need more economists telling the media that we need a bigger stimulus than just $700B. We need more liberal senators saying that the tax cuts won't work. So by all means, keep up the dissent! I'm merely pointing out that I think Obama has a political plan here.