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Our most recent poll from Research 2000 pits Democrats Roy Cooper, the current Attorney General of North Carolina, and Richard Moore, the state's former Treasurer, against the state's senior Senator Richard Burr.

As expected, Burr is going to have a tough race on his hands if Moore or Cooper runs, a scenario which would present yet another major headache for newly minted NRSC chair John Cornyn.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 1/5-7. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines).

Burr (R) 45
Cooper (D) 43

Burr (R) 46
Moore (D) 40

Very nice-looking numbers for the two Democrats. Nearly two years out, both of them have the incumbent under 50%, and Cooper is just two points shy of the Senator.

Unsurprisingly, Moore's numbers aren't quite as strong as Cooper's - while Cooper was handily reelected as Attorney General in 2008, Moore suffered a loss in a rather acrimonious primary for Governor (fortunately for Democrats, the winner of the primary, Beverly Perdue, is Governor today).

Still, Moore's strong numbers indicate that Democrats have a good shot at the seat even if Cooper, the consensus top choice for the race, decides against a run.

Both Moore and Cooper were among the names mentioned for a potential 2008 race against Elizabeth Dole, and both passed. They're probably kicking themselves now (along with a plethora of North Carolina Democrats), since the ultimate candidate, previously little-known State Senator Kay Hagan, wound up winning an impressive 9-point victory over the incumbent.

It's not always that easy - despite an initially low profile, Hagan turned out to be an outstanding campaigner and candidate, and her messaging (along with the DSCC's) was pitch-perfect in that state. Add to that that Dole, once under the gun, proved to be as ineffective on the stump as she was in the Senate. Burr will surely be expecting, and ready for, a spirited challenge. Finally, 2008 was an exceptionally good year for Democrats in North Carolina, and it's unlikely the 2010 political environment will match it.

That said, however, Burr can't take this race lightly - he's well within the danger zone for incumbents, and his exceptionally weak favorables of 47/46 indicate that he's ripe for the picking.

NORTH CAROLINA POLL RESULTS – JANUARY 2009
                                                                 
The Research 2000 North Carolina Poll was conducted from January 5 through January 7, 2009. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.

Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.



SAMPLE FIGURES:

Men                  287 (48%)
Women                313 (52%)

Democrats            258 (43%)
Republicans          204 (34%)
Independents/Other   138 (23%)

18-29                107 (18%)
30-44                198 (33%)
45-59                192 (32%)
60+                  103 (17%)

White                426 (71%)
Black                132 (22%)
Other                 42 (7%)

Raleigh/Durham       186 (31%)
Charlotte            204 (34%)
Greensboro/WS        119 (20%)    


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Roy Cooper? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 16%         25%         16%          5%         38%

                   FAV         UNFAV       NO OPINION

ALL                 41%         21%         38%

MEN                 38%         25%         37%
WOMEN               44%         17%         39%

DEMOCRATS           59%         10%         31%
REPUBLICANS         21%         36%         43%
INDEPENDENTS        37%         19%         44%

18-29               44%         18%         38%
30-44               40%         22%         38%
45-59               42%         21%         37%
60+                 38%         23%         39%


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Richard Moore? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 14%         23%         19%          8%         36%

                   FAV         UNFAV       NO OPINION

ALL                 37%         27%         36%

MEN                 35%         30%         35%
WOMEN               39%         24%         37%

DEMOCRATS           53%         15%         32%
REPUBLICANS         19%         44%         37%
INDEPENDENTS        34%         24%         42%

18-29               40%         23%         37%
30-44               37%         29%         34%
45-59               37%         27%         36%
60+                 35%         29%         36%


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Richard Burr? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 14%         33%         32%         14%          7%

                   FAV         UNFAV       NO OPINION

ALL                 47%         46%          7%

MEN                 52%         44%          4%
WOMEN               42%         48%         10%

DEMOCRATS           32%         61%          7%
REPUBLICANS         67%         28%          5%
INDEPENDENTS        45%         45%         10%

18-29               44%         48%          8%
30-44               48%         45%          7%
45-59               47%         47%          6%
60+                 49%         44%          7%


QUESTION: If 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Roy Cooper the Democrat and Richard Burr the Republican?

                   BURR        COOPER      UNDECIDED  

ALL                 45%         43%         12%

MEN                 49%         41%         10%
WOMEN               41%         45%         14%

DEMOCRATS           14%         74%         12%
REPUBLICANS         83%          6%         11%
INDEPENDENTS        47%         40%         13%

WHITE               60%         28%         12%
BLACK                7%         82%         11%
OTHER               10%         70%         20%

18-29               41%         45%         14%
30-44               47%         42%         11%
45-59               44%         44%         12%
60+                 49%         41%         10%

RALEIGH/DUR         40%         49%         11%
CHARLOTTE           49%         38%         13%
GREENSBORO/WS       51%         37%         12%


QUESTION: If 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Richard Moore the Democrat and Richard Burr the Republican?

                   BURR        MOORE       UNDECIDED  

ALL                 46%         40%         14%

MEN                 50%         38%         12%
WOMEN               42%         42%         16%

DEMOCRATS           14%         71%         15%
REPUBLICANS         84%          5%         11%
INDEPENDENTS        49%         35%         16%

WHITE               62%         25%         13%
BLACK                6%         81%         13%
OTHER               10%         69%         21%

18-29               41%         42%         17%
30-44               48%         39%         13%
45-59               45%         41%         14%
60+                 50%         38%         12%

RALEIGH/DUR         41%         47%         12%
CHARLOTTE           50%         35%         15%
GREENSBORO/WS       52%         34%         14%

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Mon Jan 12, 2009 at 09:35 AM PST.

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