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This year we have two gubernatorial race in New Jersey and in Virginia. In 2005 Democratic Party win these two races. Today we can talk about Virginia.

In Virginia term limits not let the same governor repeat two consecutive terms, for that Tim Kaine not can repeat, and will be H Dean's succesor as DNC chair.

This race is started, and we know the candidates what seems definitive for primaries, but go few back, because can be interesting to place this candidates in their politic environment.

In republican side current VA Attorney General B McDonnell seems will be the candidate after current Lieutenant Governor of VA B Bolling decide run again for his current office.

Republicans have too 3 know names, who can return in the future if we think in the rules, but not for this race. They are former senators PS Trible, J Gilmore and G Allen. Of these, seems only G Allen make feel the people some danger, but not is viewed like solid candidate. We can see that in next links:

2009-2010 ELECTIONS: For defense in races in blue states I
2009-2010 ELECTIONS: For defense in races in blue states II.
2009-2010 ELECTIONS: For defense in races in blue states III.

This links are open for new votes.

In democratic side, this was the list of initial possible candidates (current candidates are bold emphasized):

  1. Alexis Margaret Herman: AL VA 1947 Secretary of Labor 97-01.
  1. Glen Carlyle Nye III: PA VA 1974 USHRep 09- .
  1. Thomas Stuart Price Perriello: VA 1974 USHRep 09- .
  1. Frederick Carlyle Boucher: VA 1946 USHRep 83- .
  1. James Patrick Moran: NY VA 1945 USHRep 91- .
  1. Robert Cortez Scott: DC VA 1947 USHRep 93- . Lost for House 86.
  1. Gerald E Connolly: MA VA 1950 USHRep 09- .
  1. Lewis Franklin Payne: VA 1945 USHRep 88-97. Lost for Lieutenant Governor 97.
  1. Leslie L Byrne: UT VA 1946 USHRep 93-95. Lost for Senate 96. Lost for Lieutenant Governor 05. Lost for House 94 and 08.
  1. Donald S Beyer: ITA VA 1950 Lieutenant Governor of VA 90-98. Lost for Governor 97.
  1. Terence Richard McAuliffe: NY VA 1957 DCN Chair 01-05.
  1. Robert Creigh Deeds: VA 1958 Lost for VA Attorney General 05.
  1. Brian J Moran: MA VA 1959

T Kaine is not included because he not can run again by term limits. From this list now we know only last 3 candidates are running. Seems veteran US House Representatives (Boucher or J Moran) not like run for governor.

Creigh Deeds run in 2005 for VA Attorney General against current VA Attorney General and republican candidate for governor, B McDonnell losing by very low difference (49,95% D - 49,96% R). That make think the 2009 race for governor can be very closed.

I hope the strongest of this candidates bold emphasized win the primaries. Until now seems B Moran, brother of USHRep J Moran, is the candidate with better polls, but seems this primary election can be closed too.

I think this race is very important for Democratic Party not lose governors in this electoral round. I see the race more closed than i like. I hope democratic candidate can win. Is important.

2009-2010 ELECTIONS: All gubernatorial races.

In a 0-10 scale, like this:

--- 00,000 ---
Safe Republican
--- 01,429 ---
Likely Republican
--- 02,857 ---
Leans Republican
--- 04,286 ---
Toss-Up
--- 05,714 ---
Leans Democratic
--- 07,142 ---
Likely Democratic
--- 08,571 ---
Safe Democratic
--- 10,000 ---

The states with democratic incumbents what seems more easy for win again are:

NH-Gov: Incumbent J Lynch (D-1952) win in 2008 with 70%.
CO-Gov: Incumbent W Ritter (D-1956) win in 2006 with 56%.
IA-Gov: Incumbent C Culver (D-1966) win in 2006 with 54%.
WI-Gov: Incumbent J Doyle (D-1945) win in 2006 with 53%.
MA-Gov: Incumbent D Patrick (D-1956) win in 2006 with 55%.

We can see results for these states in next link:

2009-2010 ELECTIONS: Gubernatorial races. Democratic incumbents are safe?

More interesting races:

AR-Gov: Open R vs M Beebe (D-1946) ? after 13 votes = 09,231 => Safe Democratic
MD-Gov: R Ehrlich (R-1957) vs M O'Malley (D-1963) ? af 16 votes = 08,750 => Safe Democratic
IL-Gov: Open R vs P Quinn (D-1948) ? after 21 votes = 08,571 => Safe Democratic
NY-Gov: R Giuliani (R-1944) vs A Cuomo (D-1957) ? af 18 votes = 08,333 => Likely Democratic
OR-Gov: G Smith (R-1952) vs J Kitzhaber (D-1947) ? af 12 votes = 08,194 => Likely Democratic
2 OR-Gov: G Smith (R-1952) vs ? after 06 votes = 08,056 => Likely Democratic
OH-Gov: M DeWine (R-1947) vs T Strickland (D-1941) ? af 15 votes = 07,889 => Likely Democr
CA-Gov: Open R vs J Brown (D-1938) ? after 32 votes = 07,865 => Likely Democratic
ME-Gov: Open R vs ? after 12 votes = 07,778 => Likely Democratic
HI-Gov: J Aiona (R-1955) vs N Abercrombie (D-1938) ? af 11 votes = 07,727 => Likely Democr
VT-Gov: J Douglas (R-1951) vs H Dean (D-1948) ? aft 30 votes = 07,667 => Likely Democratic
2 HI-Gov: J Aiona (R-1955) vs ? after 16 votes = 07,396 => Likely Democratic
NJ-Gov: C Christie (R-1962) vs J Corzine (D- 1947) ? af 17 votes = 07,353 => Likely Democratic
NM-Gov: Open R vs D Denish (D-1949) ? after 22 votes = 07,273 => Likely Democratic
2 OH-Gov: M DeWine (R-1947) vs ? after 12 votes = 07,083 => Leans Democratic
2 CA-Gov: Open R vs ? after 44 votes = 07,045 => Leans Democratic
2 NY-Gov: R Giuliani (R-1944) vs D Paterson (D-1954) ? af 33 votes = 06,768 => Leans Democr
NV-Gov: J Gibbons (R-1944) vs ? after 21 votes = 06,746 => Leans Democratic
RI-Gov: Open R vs ? after 12 votes = 06,528 => Leans Democratic
PA-Gov: Open R vs ? after 15 votes = 06,000 => Leans Democratic
MI-Gov: Open R vs ? after 30 votes = 05,889 => Leans Democratic
VA-Gov: R McDonnell (R-1954) vs ? after 27 votes = 05,494 => Toss-Up
AZ-Gov: J Brewer (R-1944) vs ? after 18 votes = 04,907 => Toss-Up
MN-Gov: T Pawlenty (R-1960) vs M Dayton (D-1947) ? after 39 votes = 04,573 => Toss-Up
2 VT-Gov: J Douglas (R-1951) vs ? after 18 votes = 04,352 => Toss-Up
FL-Gov: C Crist (R-1956) vs B Graham (D-1936) ? after 22 votes = 03,561 => Leans Republican
CT-Gov: J Rell (R-1946) vs ? after 33 votes = 03,232 => Leans Republican

And for see about other difficult races for democrats like:

TN-Gov: Open seat. P Bredesen (D-1943) win in 2006 with 69%.
OK-Gov: Open seat. B Henry (D-1963) win in 2006 with 66%.
TX-Gov: Open seat?. R Perry (R-1950) win in 2006 with 39%. K Hutchison (R-1943) like run.
WY-Gov: Open seat. D Freudenthal (D-1950) win in 2006 with 70%.
KS-Gov: Open seat. K Sebelius (D-1948) win in 2006 with 58%. S Brownback (R-1956) like run.
SC-Gov: Open seat. M Sanford (R-1960) win in 2006 with 55%.
GA-Gov: Open seat. S Perdue (R-1946) win in 2006 with 58%.
AL-Gov: Open seat. B Riley (R-1944) win in 2006 with 58%.
SD-Gov: Open seat. M Rounds (R-1954) win in 2006 with 62%.
AK-Gov: Incumbent S Palin (R-1964) win in 2006 with 48%.
ID-Gov: Incumbent B Otter (R-1942) win in 2006 with 53%.
NE-Gov: Incumbent D Heineman (R-1948) win in 2006 with 73%.

visit next diaries:

2009-2010 ELECTIONS: Guvernatorial races in red states with republican incumbent or open seat
2009-2010 ELECTIONS: Gubernatorial races in red states with republican incumbent or open seat II
2009-2010 ELECTIONS: Hardest gubernatorial races.

All the polls are open if you like to vote.

PS: This diary will be updated when the number of votes go up and when end the procedure.

Originally posted to abgin on Thu Jan 22, 2009 at 07:32 AM PST.

Poll

VA-Gov: R McDonnell (R-1954) vs ?

7%2 votes
3%1 votes
29%8 votes
29%8 votes
29%8 votes
0%0 votes
0%0 votes

| 27 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

  •  Typos, fix please? -nt (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    eddytom, jct, FerrisValyn

    What a waste it is to lose one's mind. Or not to have a mind is being very wasteful. How true that is. ~ Dan Quayle

    by CParis on Thu Jan 22, 2009 at 07:35:48 AM PST

  •  Leans Republican, is my call. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    pucklady, CParis, abgin

    People are tired of Republicans, sure, but this is Virginia, after all.  And the dynamic right now is that some serious blood will be spilled in the Democratic primary while McDonnell just sits and smiles above it all.

  •  I've already (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    pucklady

    rcd pleas for money from Terry and I think he will be not just beaten (if he gets nom) but beaten badly.

    Let tyrants fear.-Queen Elizabeth I

    by Virginia mom on Thu Jan 22, 2009 at 08:23:40 AM PST

    •  But winning the state House majority (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      pucklady, CParis

      is possible, and that might be a more important accomplishment for Virginia Democrats in the long run.

      Though that automatic lifetime vote disenfranchisement thing Virginia has is an awful stain, and at this point only the governor can do much to restore the right to vote.  It would be nice for Virginia to have such a governor....

      We can no longer afford to worship the god of hate or bow before the altar of retaliation. Martin Luther King Jr.

      by killjoy on Thu Jan 22, 2009 at 08:33:39 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  ABM - Anybody But McAuliffe, please... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    pucklady

    ... Offhand, I'd prefer either Deeds or Moran. The only absolute no-go candidate, though, is Terry. I don't care how much money he can raise, the man simply cannot win election to statewide (OK, Commonwealth-wide) office in Virginia. His sleazy style of politics is completely unsuited to the Odd Dominion. Geez, the guy doesn't even know how to pretend to be a gentleman, and courtesies and manners count in Virginia.

    •  That's my first thought as well (0+ / 0-)

      But we bloggers are not representative of the general population. WE know he sucks, but other voters may just recognize the name and be happy with it.

      I take your word for it if you say he doesn't wear well in Virginia, though.

      That's why I don't vote in the polls. I'm clueless in these matters.

      ...H-1B workers may be hired even when a qualified U.S. worker wants the job, and a U.S. worker can be displaced from the job in favor of the foreign worker.

      by pucklady on Thu Jan 22, 2009 at 10:40:55 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  VA Term Limits stupid (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    pucklady, CParis
    West Virginia had the same term limit until the 1970. It's an "old-world", draconian, and paranoid provision to limit a governor to one four-year term.
  •  Any expectation that outgoing Gov Kaine, (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    pucklady

    now head of DNC, might be leaning toward any particular candidate?

    What a waste it is to lose one's mind. Or not to have a mind is being very wasteful. How true that is. ~ Dan Quayle

    by CParis on Thu Jan 22, 2009 at 10:20:32 AM PST

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