This year we have two gubernatorial race in New Jersey and in Virginia. In 2005 Democratic Party win these two races. Today we can talk about Virginia.
In Virginia term limits not let the same governor repeat two consecutive terms, for that Tim Kaine not can repeat, and will be H Dean's succesor as DNC chair.
This race is started, and we know the candidates what seems definitive for primaries, but go few back, because can be interesting to place this candidates in their politic environment.
In republican side current VA Attorney General B McDonnell seems will be the candidate after current Lieutenant Governor of VA B Bolling decide run again for his current office.
Republicans have too 3 know names, who can return in the future if we think in the rules, but not for this race. They are former senators PS Trible, J Gilmore and G Allen. Of these, seems only G Allen make feel the people some danger, but not is viewed like solid candidate. We can see that in next links:
This links are open for new votes.
In democratic side, this was the list of initial possible candidates (current candidates are bold emphasized):
- Alexis Margaret Herman: AL VA 1947 Secretary of Labor 97-01.
- Glen Carlyle Nye III: PA VA 1974 USHRep 09- .
- Thomas Stuart Price Perriello: VA 1974 USHRep 09- .
- Frederick Carlyle Boucher: VA 1946 USHRep 83- .
- James Patrick Moran: NY VA 1945 USHRep 91- .
- Robert Cortez Scott: DC VA 1947 USHRep 93- . Lost for House 86.
- Gerald E Connolly: MA VA 1950 USHRep 09- .
- Lewis Franklin Payne: VA 1945 USHRep 88-97. Lost for Lieutenant Governor 97.
- Leslie L Byrne: UT VA 1946 USHRep 93-95. Lost for Senate 96. Lost for Lieutenant Governor 05. Lost for House 94 and 08.
- Donald S Beyer: ITA VA 1950 Lieutenant Governor of VA 90-98. Lost for Governor 97.
- Terence Richard McAuliffe: NY VA 1957 DCN Chair 01-05.
- Robert Creigh Deeds: VA 1958 Lost for VA Attorney General 05.
- Brian J Moran: MA VA 1959
T Kaine is not included because he not can run again by term limits. From this list now we know only last 3 candidates are running. Seems veteran US House Representatives (Boucher or J Moran) not like run for governor.
Creigh Deeds run in 2005 for VA Attorney General against current VA Attorney General and republican candidate for governor, B McDonnell losing by very low difference (49,95% D - 49,96% R). That make think the 2009 race for governor can be very closed.
I hope the strongest of this candidates bold emphasized win the primaries. Until now seems B Moran, brother of USHRep J Moran, is the candidate with better polls, but seems this primary election can be closed too.
I think this race is very important for Democratic Party not lose governors in this electoral round. I see the race more closed than i like. I hope democratic candidate can win. Is important.
In a 0-10 scale, like this:
--- 00,000 ---
--- 01,429 ---
--- 02,857 ---
--- 04,286 ---
--- 05,714 ---
--- 07,142 ---
--- 08,571 ---
--- 10,000 ---
The states with democratic incumbents what seems more easy for win again are:
NH-Gov: Incumbent J Lynch (D-1952) win in 2008 with 70%.
CO-Gov: Incumbent W Ritter (D-1956) win in 2006 with 56%.
IA-Gov: Incumbent C Culver (D-1966) win in 2006 with 54%.
WI-Gov: Incumbent J Doyle (D-1945) win in 2006 with 53%.
MA-Gov: Incumbent D Patrick (D-1956) win in 2006 with 55%.
We can see results for these states in next link:
More interesting races:
AR-Gov: Open R vs M Beebe (D-1946) ? after 13 votes = 09,231 => Safe Democratic
MD-Gov: R Ehrlich (R-1957) vs M O'Malley (D-1963) ? af 16 votes = 08,750 => Safe Democratic
IL-Gov: Open R vs P Quinn (D-1948) ? after 21 votes = 08,571 => Safe Democratic
NY-Gov: R Giuliani (R-1944) vs A Cuomo (D-1957) ? af 18 votes = 08,333 => Likely Democratic
OR-Gov: G Smith (R-1952) vs J Kitzhaber (D-1947) ? af 12 votes = 08,194 => Likely Democratic
2 OR-Gov: G Smith (R-1952) vs ? after 06 votes = 08,056 => Likely Democratic
OH-Gov: M DeWine (R-1947) vs T Strickland (D-1941) ? af 15 votes = 07,889 => Likely Democr
CA-Gov: Open R vs J Brown (D-1938) ? after 32 votes = 07,865 => Likely Democratic
ME-Gov: Open R vs ? after 12 votes = 07,778 => Likely Democratic
HI-Gov: J Aiona (R-1955) vs N Abercrombie (D-1938) ? af 11 votes = 07,727 => Likely Democr
VT-Gov: J Douglas (R-1951) vs H Dean (D-1948) ? aft 30 votes = 07,667 => Likely Democratic
2 HI-Gov: J Aiona (R-1955) vs ? after 16 votes = 07,396 => Likely Democratic
NJ-Gov: C Christie (R-1962) vs J Corzine (D- 1947) ? af 17 votes = 07,353 => Likely Democratic
NM-Gov: Open R vs D Denish (D-1949) ? after 22 votes = 07,273 => Likely Democratic
2 OH-Gov: M DeWine (R-1947) vs ? after 12 votes = 07,083 => Leans Democratic
2 CA-Gov: Open R vs ? after 44 votes = 07,045 => Leans Democratic
2 NY-Gov: R Giuliani (R-1944) vs D Paterson (D-1954) ? af 33 votes = 06,768 => Leans Democr
NV-Gov: J Gibbons (R-1944) vs ? after 21 votes = 06,746 => Leans Democratic
RI-Gov: Open R vs ? after 12 votes = 06,528 => Leans Democratic
PA-Gov: Open R vs ? after 15 votes = 06,000 => Leans Democratic
MI-Gov: Open R vs ? after 30 votes = 05,889 => Leans Democratic
VA-Gov: R McDonnell (R-1954) vs ? after 27 votes = 05,494 => Toss-Up
AZ-Gov: J Brewer (R-1944) vs ? after 18 votes = 04,907 => Toss-Up
MN-Gov: T Pawlenty (R-1960) vs M Dayton (D-1947) ? after 39 votes = 04,573 => Toss-Up
2 VT-Gov: J Douglas (R-1951) vs ? after 18 votes = 04,352 => Toss-Up
FL-Gov: C Crist (R-1956) vs B Graham (D-1936) ? after 22 votes = 03,561 => Leans Republican
CT-Gov: J Rell (R-1946) vs ? after 33 votes = 03,232 => Leans Republican
And for see about other difficult races for democrats like:
TN-Gov: Open seat. P Bredesen (D-1943) win in 2006 with 69%.
OK-Gov: Open seat. B Henry (D-1963) win in 2006 with 66%.
TX-Gov: Open seat?. R Perry (R-1950) win in 2006 with 39%. K Hutchison (R-1943) like run.
WY-Gov: Open seat. D Freudenthal (D-1950) win in 2006 with 70%.
KS-Gov: Open seat. K Sebelius (D-1948) win in 2006 with 58%. S Brownback (R-1956) like run.
SC-Gov: Open seat. M Sanford (R-1960) win in 2006 with 55%.
GA-Gov: Open seat. S Perdue (R-1946) win in 2006 with 58%.
AL-Gov: Open seat. B Riley (R-1944) win in 2006 with 58%.
SD-Gov: Open seat. M Rounds (R-1954) win in 2006 with 62%.
AK-Gov: Incumbent S Palin (R-1964) win in 2006 with 48%.
ID-Gov: Incumbent B Otter (R-1942) win in 2006 with 53%.
NE-Gov: Incumbent D Heineman (R-1948) win in 2006 with 73%.
visit next diaries:
2009-2010 ELECTIONS: Guvernatorial races in red states with republican incumbent or open seat
2009-2010 ELECTIONS: Gubernatorial races in red states with republican incumbent or open seat II
2009-2010 ELECTIONS: Hardest gubernatorial races.
All the polls are open if you like to vote.
PS: This diary will be updated when the number of votes go up and when end the procedure.