Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 1/26-28. Likely voters. MoE 4%, 5% for primary samples (No trendlines)
Democratic Primary
Burris 26
Schakowsky 12
Giannoulias 11
Undecided 51
Republican Primary
Kirk 27
Roskam 17
Undecided 56
What can you say? It's early and people aren't ready to make any calls. Given that Rep. Jan Schakowsky and State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias have little statewide name ID, and given that now-Sen. Roland Burris got a boatload of coverage over the last couple of weeks, he's not looking so hot. But really, no one knows anyone yet:
Favorable/Unfavorable/No opinion
Burris 35/35/30
Schakowsky 33/10/57
Giannoulias 36/15/49
You'd actually think Burris would have higher unfavorables than that, given his inevitable tie with Blagojevich, so all things considered, he's actually in pretty decent shape. Relatively speaking, of course. Unlike Burris, both Schakowsky and Giannoulias are off to a good start, and should rise vis a vis Burris as they become better known. Giannoulias, in particular, is capturing much of the early grassroots buzz in Illinois, and may prove the bigger threat to Burris -- he's one of Obama's regular basketball sparring partners and got a huge boost from the big man himself in his run for treasurer, in opposition to a Democratic machine-backed candidate. He's also independently wealthy and can self-fund, which would make him a potent package if he continues rallying significant grassroots support.
Now check out the two Republicans' approval ratings:
Favorable/Unfavorable/No opinion
Kirk 37/41/22
Roskam 19/23/58
Now it makes sense that Roskam's name ID is so low. He was first elected in 2006 while Kirk has been around since 2000 and is the go-to Republican voice for the Chicago media. Yet though these guys are the best of the Illinois GOP, neither can pull off a positive net favorability rating. That doesn't bode well for a statewide office.
So let's look at the head-to-heads:
Burris (D) 37
Kirk (R) 30
Burris (D) 38
Roskam (R) 25
Schakowsky (D) 36
Kirk (R) 30
Schakowsky (D) 37
Roskam (R) 25
Giannoulias (D) 38
Kirk (R) 30
Giannoulias (D) 38
Roskam (R) 25
So check it out, those are base numbers -- those 25-30 percent supporting the two Republicans are the same 27 percent of people who voted for Alan Keyes in the 2004 Senate race. Likewise, that 38 percent supporting the Democrats are likely the Democratic floor in the state. A (real) donkey and elephant would've probably gotten the same numbers.
But while the head-to-heads may not tell us much, the approval/disapproval numbers are quite telling -- Republicans start off in a hole that will be tough to overcome. Illinois voters still don't like them.
Full crosstabs below the fold.
ILLINOIS RESULTS – JANUARY 2009
The Research 2000 Illinois Poll was conducted from January 26 through January 28, 2009. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone. Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.
NOTE: There was an over sample conducted among Democratic and Republican primary voters totaling 400. The margin of error is 5% for both.
SAMPLE FIGURES:
Men 288 (48%)
Women 312 (52%)
Democrats 264 (44%)
Republicans 174 (29%)
Independents 162 (27%)
White 438 (73%)
Black 90 (15%)
Hispanic 60 (10%)
Other 12 (2%)
18-29 114 (19%)
30-44 198 (33%)
45-59 186 (31%)
60+ 102 (17%)
Chicago/Cook County 258 interviews
Collar Counties 114 interviews
Central 138 interviews
Southern 90 interviews
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VORERS ONLY
Men 181 (45%)
Women 219 (55%)
White 236 (59%)
Black 88 (22%)
Hispanic 60 (15%)
Other 16 (4%)
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS ONLY
Men 215 (54%)
Women 185 (46%)
QUESTION: If the 2010 Democratic Primary for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Roland Burris and Jan Schakowsky?
ALL MEN WOMEN White Black Hispanic Other
Burris 26% 28% 24% 18% 47% 29% 25%
Schakowsky 12% 9% 15% 15% 5% 12% 14%
Giannoulias 11% 14% 9% 14% 4% 11% 10%
Undecided (NOT READ)51% 49% 52% 53% 44% 48% 51%
QUESTION: If the 2010 Republican Primary for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Mark Kirk and Peter Roskam?
ALL MEN WOMEN
Kirk 27% 25% 30%
Roskam 17% 20% 13%
Undecided (NOT READ)56% 55% 57%
ALL VOTERS
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Roland Burris ? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 8% 27% 26% 9% 30%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 35% 35% 30%
MEN 34% 40% 26%
WOMEN 36% 30% 34%
DEMOCRATS 58% 18% 24%
REPUBLICANS 4% 60% 36%
INDEPENDENTS 31% 36% 33%
18-29 38% 32% 30%
30-44 37% 34% 29%
45-59 33% 37% 30%
60+ 32% 38% 30%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Jan Schakowsky? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 7% 26% 6% 4% 57%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 33% 10% 57%
MEN 31% 10% 59%
WOMEN 35% 10% 55%
DEMOCRATS 53% 4% 43%
REPUBLICANS 4% 22% 74%
INDEPENDENTS 32% 7% 61%
18-29 36% 7% 57%
30-44 35% 9% 56%
45-59 31% 11% 58%
60+ 30% 13% 57%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Alexi Giannoulias? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 9% 27% 8% 7% 49%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 36% 15% 49%
MEN 34% 18% 48%
WOMEN 38% 12% 50%
DEMOCRATS 56% 7% 37%
REPUBLICANS 4% 29% 67%
INDEPENDENTS 37% 13% 50%
18-29 39% 12% 49%
30-44 38% 14% 48%
45-59 34% 16% 50%
60+ 33% 18% 49%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mark Kirk? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 8% 29% 30% 11% 22%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 37% 41% 22%
MEN 40% 39% 21%
WOMEN 34% 43% 23%
DEMOCRATS 18% 56% 26%
REPUBLICANS 69% 17% 14%
INDEPENDENTS 34% 43% 23%
18-29 33% 44% 23%
30-44 36% 43% 21%
45-59 39% 39% 22%
60+ 42% 37% 21%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Peter Roskam? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 4% 15% 12% 11% 58%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 19% 23% 58%
MEN 21% 21% 58%
WOMEN 17% 25% 58%
DEMOCRATS 6% 36% 58%
REPUBLICANS 45% 4% 51%
INDEPENDENTS 12% 23% 65%
18-29 15% 26% 59%
30-44 18% 25% 57%
45-59 20% 21% 59%
60+ 23% 20% 57%
QUESTION: If 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Roland Burris the Democrat and Mark Kirk
the Republican?
BURRIS KIRK UNDECIDED
ALL 37% 30% 33%
MEN 34% 34% 32%
WOMEN 40% 26% 34%
DEMOCRATS 61% 8% 31%
REPUBLICANS 4% 66% 30%
INDEPENDENTS 34% 28% 38%
WHITE 26% 37% 37%
BLACK 72% 3% 25%
HISPANIC 59% 24% 17%
OTHER 65% 19% 16%
18-29 39% 26% 35%
30-44 38% 29% 33%
45-59 36% 32% 32%
60+ 34% 34% 32%
CHICAGO/COOK 49% 18% 33%
COLLAR 21% 46% 33%
CENTRAL 32% 36% 32%
SOUTHERN 31% 36% 33%
QUESTION: If 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Roland Burris the Democrat and Peter Roskam
the Republican?
BURRIS ROSKAM UNDECIDED
ALL 38% 25% 37%
MEN 34% 28% 38%
WOMEN 42% 22% 36%
DEMOCRATS 63% 4% 33%
REPUBLICANS 4% 60% 36%
INDEPENDENTS 35% 20% 45%
WHITE 27% 30% 43%
BLACK 73% 3% 24%
HISPANIC 61% 22% 17%
OTHER 65% 17% 18%
18-29 40% 19% 41%
30-44 39% 24% 37%
45-59 37% 27% 36%
60+ 34% 30% 36%
CHICAGO/COOK 51% 13% 36%
COLLAR 20% 43% 37%
CENTRAL 33% 30% 37%
SOUTHERN 32% 31% 37%
QUESTION: If 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Jan Schakowsky the Democrat and Mark Kirk
the Republican?
SCHAKOWSKY KIRK UNDECIDED
ALL 36% 30% 34%
MEN 33% 34% 33%
WOMEN 39% 26% 35%
DEMOCRATS 59% 8% 33%
REPUBLICANS 3% 66% 31%
INDEPENDENTS 33% 28% 39%
WHITE 26% 37% 37%
BLACK 69% 3% 28%
HISPANIC 57% 24% 19%
OTHER 63% 18% 19%
18-29 38% 25% 37%
30-44 37% 29% 34%
45-59 35% 32% 33%
60+ 33% 34% 33%
CHICAGO/COOK 48% 18% 34%
COLLAR 21% 46% 33%
CENTRAL 31% 36% 33%
SOUTHERN 30% 35% 35%
QUESTION: If 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Jan Schakowsky the Democrat and Peter Roskam
the Republican?
SCHAKOWSKY ROSKAM UNDECIDED
ALL 37% 25% 38%
MEN 33% 28% 39%
WOMEN 41% 22% 37%
DEMOCRATS 63% 4% 33%
REPUBLICANS 3% 60% 37%
INDEPENDENTS 32% 20% 48%
WHITE 26% 30% 44%
BLACK 73% 3% 24%
HISPANIC 61% 22% 17%
OTHER 64% 17% 19%
18-29 40% 19% 41%
30-44 38% 24% 38%
45-59 36% 27% 37%
60+ 33% 30% 37%
CHICAGO/COOK 50% 13% 37%
COLLAR 19% 43% 38%
CENTRAL 32% 30% 38%
SOUTHERN 32% 30% 38%
QUESTION: If 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Alexi Giannoulias the Democrat and Mark Kirk
the Republican?
GIANNOULIAS KIRK UNDECIDED
ALL 38% 30% 32%
MEN 35% 33% 32%
WOMEN 41% 27% 32%
DEMOCRATS 62% 8% 30%
REPUBLICANS 4% 66% 30%
INDEPENDENTS 35% 28% 37%
WHITE 28% 37% 35%
BLACK 70% 3% 27%
HISPANIC 58% 24% 18%
OTHER 64% 18% 18%
18-29 40% 25% 35%
30-44 39% 29% 32%
45-59 37% 32% 31%
60+ 35% 34% 31%
CHICAGO/COOK 51% 18% 31%
COLLAR 21% 46% 33%
CENTRAL 32% 36% 32%
SOUTHERN 31% 35% 34%
QUESTION: If 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Alexi Giannoulias the Democrat and Peter Roskam
the Republican?
GIANNOULIAS ROSKAM UNDECIDED
ALL 38% 25% 37%
MEN 35% 27% 38%
WOMEN 41% 23% 36%
DEMOCRATS 62% 4% 34%
REPUBLICANS 4% 60% 36%
INDEPENDENTS 35% 20% 45%
WHITE 28% 30% 42%
BLACK 71% 3% 26%
HISPANIC 58% 22% 20%
OTHER 63% 17% 20%
18-29 40% 19% 41%
30-44 39% 24% 37%
45-59 37% 27% 36%
60+ 35% 30% 35%
CHICAGO/COOK 51% 13% 36%
COLLAR 21% 43% 36%
CENTRAL 32% 30% 38%
SOUTHERN 31% 30% 39%