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Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 1/26-28. Likely voters. MoE 4%, 5% for primary samples (No trendlines)

Democratic Primary

Burris 26
Schakowsky 12
Giannoulias 11
Undecided 51

Republican Primary

Kirk 27
Roskam 17
Undecided 56

What can you say? It's early and people aren't ready to make any calls. Given that Rep. Jan Schakowsky and State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias have little statewide name ID, and given that now-Sen. Roland Burris got a boatload of coverage over the last couple of weeks, he's not looking so hot. But really, no one knows anyone yet:

Favorable/Unfavorable/No opinion

Burris 35/35/30
Schakowsky 33/10/57
Giannoulias 36/15/49

You'd actually think Burris would have higher unfavorables than that, given his inevitable tie with Blagojevich, so all things considered, he's actually in pretty decent shape. Relatively speaking, of course. Unlike Burris, both Schakowsky and Giannoulias are off to a good start, and should rise vis a vis Burris as they become better known. Giannoulias, in particular, is capturing much of the early grassroots buzz in Illinois, and may prove the bigger threat to Burris -- he's one of Obama's regular basketball sparring partners and got a huge boost from the big man himself in his run for treasurer, in opposition to a Democratic machine-backed candidate. He's also independently wealthy and can self-fund, which would make him a potent package if he continues rallying significant grassroots support.

Now check out the two Republicans' approval ratings:

Favorable/Unfavorable/No opinion

Kirk 37/41/22
Roskam 19/23/58

Now it makes sense that Roskam's name ID is so low. He was first elected in 2006 while Kirk has been around since 2000 and is the go-to Republican voice for the Chicago media. Yet though these guys are the best of the Illinois GOP, neither can pull off a positive net favorability rating. That doesn't bode well for a statewide office.

So let's look at the head-to-heads:

Burris (D) 37
Kirk (R) 30

Burris (D) 38
Roskam (R) 25

Schakowsky (D) 36
Kirk (R) 30

Schakowsky (D) 37
Roskam (R) 25

Giannoulias (D) 38
Kirk (R) 30

Giannoulias (D) 38
Roskam (R) 25

So check it out, those are base numbers -- those 25-30 percent supporting the two Republicans are the same 27 percent of people who voted for Alan Keyes in the 2004 Senate race. Likewise, that 38 percent supporting the Democrats are likely the Democratic floor in the state. A (real) donkey and elephant would've probably gotten the same numbers.

But while the head-to-heads may not tell us much, the approval/disapproval numbers are quite telling -- Republicans start off in a hole that will be tough to overcome. Illinois voters still don't like them.

Full crosstabs below the fold.

ILLINOIS RESULTS – JANUARY 2009  

The Research 2000 Illinois Poll was conducted from January 26 through January 28, 2009. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone. Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.

NOTE: There was an over sample conducted among Democratic and Republican primary voters totaling 400. The margin of error is 5% for both.


SAMPLE FIGURES:

Men                  288 (48%)
Women                312 (52%)

Democrats            264 (44%)
Republicans          174 (29%)
Independents         162 (27%)

White                438 (73%)
Black                 90 (15%)
Hispanic              60 (10%)
Other                 12 (2%)

18-29                114 (19%)
30-44                198 (33%)
45-59                186 (31%)
60+                  102 (17%)

Chicago/Cook County  258 interviews
Collar Counties      114 interviews
Central              138 interviews
Southern             90 interviews

DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VORERS ONLY

Men                  181 (45%)
Women                219 (55%)

White                236 (59%)
Black                 88 (22%)
Hispanic              60 (15%)
Other                 16 (4%)

REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS ONLY

Men                  215 (54%)
Women                185 (46%)


QUESTION: If the 2010 Democratic Primary for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Roland Burris and Jan Schakowsky?

                   ALL      MEN      WOMEN    White    Black    Hispanic Other

Burris              26%      28%      24%      18%      47%      29%      25%
Schakowsky          12%       9%      15%      15%       5%      12%      14%
Giannoulias         11%      14%       9%      14%       4%      11%      10%
Undecided (NOT READ)51%      49%      52%      53%      44%      48%      51%


QUESTION: If the 2010 Republican Primary for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Mark Kirk and Peter Roskam?

                   ALL         MEN         WOMEN      

Kirk                27%         25%         30%
Roskam              17%         20%         13%
Undecided (NOT READ)56%         55%         57%

                   ALL         VOTERS      


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Roland Burris ? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                  8%         27%         26%          9%         30%

                   FAV         UNFAV       NO OPINION

ALL                 35%         35%         30%

MEN                 34%         40%         26%
WOMEN               36%         30%         34%

DEMOCRATS           58%         18%         24%
REPUBLICANS          4%         60%         36%
INDEPENDENTS        31%         36%         33%

18-29               38%         32%         30%
30-44               37%         34%         29%
45-59               33%         37%         30%
60+                 32%         38%         30%


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Jan Schakowsky? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                  7%         26%          6%          4%         57%

                   FAV         UNFAV       NO OPINION

ALL                 33%         10%         57%

MEN                 31%         10%         59%
WOMEN               35%         10%         55%

DEMOCRATS           53%          4%         43%
REPUBLICANS          4%         22%         74%
INDEPENDENTS        32%          7%         61%

18-29               36%          7%         57%
30-44               35%          9%         56%
45-59               31%         11%         58%
60+                 30%         13%         57%


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Alexi Giannoulias? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                  9%         27%          8%          7%         49%

                   FAV         UNFAV       NO OPINION

ALL                 36%         15%         49%

MEN                 34%         18%         48%
WOMEN               38%         12%         50%

DEMOCRATS           56%          7%         37%
REPUBLICANS          4%         29%         67%
INDEPENDENTS        37%         13%         50%

18-29               39%         12%         49%
30-44               38%         14%         48%
45-59               34%         16%         50%
60+                 33%         18%         49%


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mark Kirk? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                  8%         29%         30%         11%         22%

                   FAV         UNFAV       NO OPINION

ALL                 37%         41%         22%

MEN                 40%         39%         21%
WOMEN               34%         43%         23%

DEMOCRATS           18%         56%         26%
REPUBLICANS         69%         17%         14%
INDEPENDENTS        34%         43%         23%

18-29               33%         44%         23%
30-44               36%         43%         21%
45-59               39%         39%         22%
60+                 42%         37%         21%


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Peter Roskam? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                  4%         15%         12%         11%         58%

                   FAV         UNFAV       NO OPINION

ALL                 19%         23%         58%

MEN                 21%         21%         58%
WOMEN               17%         25%         58%

DEMOCRATS            6%         36%         58%
REPUBLICANS         45%          4%         51%
INDEPENDENTS        12%         23%         65%

18-29               15%         26%         59%
30-44               18%         25%         57%
45-59               20%         21%         59%
60+                 23%         20%         57%


QUESTION: If 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Roland Burris the Democrat and Mark Kirk
the Republican?
                   BURRIS      KIRK        UNDECIDED  

ALL                 37%         30%         33%

MEN                 34%         34%         32%
WOMEN               40%         26%         34%

DEMOCRATS           61%          8%         31%
REPUBLICANS          4%         66%         30%
INDEPENDENTS        34%         28%         38%

WHITE               26%         37%         37%
BLACK               72%          3%         25%
HISPANIC            59%         24%         17%
OTHER               65%         19%         16%

18-29               39%         26%         35%
30-44               38%         29%         33%
45-59               36%         32%         32%
60+                 34%         34%         32%

CHICAGO/COOK        49%         18%         33%
COLLAR              21%         46%         33%
CENTRAL             32%         36%         32%
SOUTHERN            31%         36%         33%


QUESTION: If 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Roland Burris the Democrat and Peter Roskam
the Republican?
                   BURRIS      ROSKAM      UNDECIDED  

ALL                 38%         25%         37%

MEN                 34%         28%         38%
WOMEN               42%         22%         36%

DEMOCRATS           63%          4%         33%
REPUBLICANS          4%         60%         36%
INDEPENDENTS        35%         20%         45%

WHITE               27%         30%         43%
BLACK               73%          3%         24%
HISPANIC            61%         22%         17%
OTHER               65%         17%         18%

18-29               40%         19%         41%
30-44               39%         24%         37%
45-59               37%         27%         36%
60+                 34%         30%         36%

CHICAGO/COOK        51%         13%         36%
COLLAR              20%         43%         37%
CENTRAL             33%         30%         37%
SOUTHERN            32%         31%         37%


QUESTION: If 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Jan Schakowsky the Democrat and Mark Kirk
the Republican?
                   SCHAKOWSKY  KIRK        UNDECIDED  

ALL                 36%         30%         34%

MEN                 33%         34%         33%
WOMEN               39%         26%         35%

DEMOCRATS           59%          8%         33%
REPUBLICANS          3%         66%         31%
INDEPENDENTS        33%         28%         39%

WHITE               26%         37%         37%
BLACK               69%          3%         28%
HISPANIC            57%         24%         19%
OTHER               63%         18%         19%

18-29               38%         25%         37%
30-44               37%         29%         34%
45-59               35%         32%         33%
60+                 33%         34%         33%

CHICAGO/COOK        48%         18%         34%
COLLAR              21%         46%         33%
CENTRAL             31%         36%         33%
SOUTHERN            30%         35%         35%


QUESTION: If 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Jan Schakowsky the Democrat and Peter Roskam
the Republican?
                   SCHAKOWSKY  ROSKAM      UNDECIDED  

ALL                 37%         25%         38%

MEN                 33%         28%         39%
WOMEN               41%         22%         37%

DEMOCRATS           63%          4%         33%
REPUBLICANS          3%         60%         37%
INDEPENDENTS        32%         20%         48%

WHITE               26%         30%         44%
BLACK               73%          3%         24%
HISPANIC            61%         22%         17%
OTHER               64%         17%         19%

18-29               40%         19%         41%
30-44               38%         24%         38%
45-59               36%         27%         37%
60+                 33%         30%         37%

CHICAGO/COOK        50%         13%         37%
COLLAR              19%         43%         38%
CENTRAL             32%         30%         38%
SOUTHERN            32%         30%         38%


QUESTION: If 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Alexi Giannoulias the Democrat and Mark Kirk
the Republican?
                   GIANNOULIAS KIRK        UNDECIDED  

ALL                 38%         30%         32%

MEN                 35%         33%         32%
WOMEN               41%         27%         32%

DEMOCRATS           62%          8%         30%
REPUBLICANS          4%         66%         30%
INDEPENDENTS        35%         28%         37%

WHITE               28%         37%         35%
BLACK               70%          3%         27%
HISPANIC            58%         24%         18%
OTHER               64%         18%         18%

18-29               40%         25%         35%
30-44               39%         29%         32%
45-59               37%         32%         31%
60+                 35%         34%         31%

CHICAGO/COOK        51%         18%         31%
COLLAR              21%         46%         33%
CENTRAL             32%         36%         32%
SOUTHERN            31%         35%         34%


QUESTION: If 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Alexi Giannoulias the Democrat and Peter Roskam
the Republican?
                   GIANNOULIAS ROSKAM      UNDECIDED  

ALL                 38%         25%         37%

MEN                 35%         27%         38%
WOMEN               41%         23%         36%

DEMOCRATS           62%          4%         34%
REPUBLICANS          4%         60%         36%
INDEPENDENTS        35%         20%         45%

WHITE               28%         30%         42%
BLACK               71%          3%         26%
HISPANIC            58%         22%         20%
OTHER               63%         17%         20%

18-29               40%         19%         41%
30-44               39%         24%         37%
45-59               37%         27%         36%
60+                 35%         30%         35%

CHICAGO/COOK        51%         13%         36%
COLLAR              21%         43%         36%
CENTRAL             32%         30%         38%
SOUTHERN            31%         30%         39%

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Fri Jan 30, 2009 at 09:00 AM PST.

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