Research 2000's latest poll for Daily Kos, polling the Republican and Democratic primary fields for Florida's Senate race as well as several head-to-head matchups, indicates that most voters are not sufficiently familiar with the actual candidates in the race to have yet determined who they want to vote for.
While this poll was in the field, two of the candidates polled - Democrat Allen Boyd and Republican Bill McCollum - decided against a Senate bid. We've posted the polling results for Boyd and McCollum below the fold, since the polling data for these two candidates is unfortunately no longer especially useful.
As far as candidates who have announced a run, or are still considering one, Democrat Kendrick Meek starts out with little name recognition, but more than that enjoyed by either Boyd, or State Sen. Dan Gelber (who is running).
On the Republican side, if John Cornyn does managed to get popular Florida Gov. Charlie Crist in the race, he laps the field, even with McCollum - the No. 2 candidate - polled. State House Speaker Marco Rubio, the third candidate polled, lags well behind Crist and McCollum.
Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 1/26-28. Likely voters. MoE 4%, 5% for primary samples (No trendlines)
Democratic Primary
Meek 17
Boyd 8
Gelber 3
Undecided 72
Republican Primary
Crist 57
McCollum 11
Rubio 4
Now, if Crist doesn't run for the seat, Rubio would gain a little more support in a hypothetical matchup against McCollum (who isn't running). Still, his support is limited badly by low name recognition.
Republican Primary
McCollum 28
Rubio 12
Finally, here are head-to-head matchups pitting Democratic candidates Meek and Gelber against Republican candidates Crist and Rubio. (Again, you can find numbers for matchups including McCollum and Boyd below the fold, if you want them).
Crist (R) 52
Gelber (D) 21
Gelber (D) 23
Rubio (R) 23
Crist gets around 50% support - automatically - if he runs for the seat. I suppose it would be theoretically possible to take him down, but not bloody likely, not with his astronomical 65/23 favorables.
Meek has his own baseline - he's familiar to enough voters to receive around 30% of the vote in all matchups. It's a safe bet that that's something like the baseline for a Democrat - Meek is actually known to a substantial number of Democrats polled, with 39% having an opinion of him (35% favorable).
Marco Rubio and Dan Gelber, however, both have baselines of 21-23%, indicating that the vast majority of Floridians just have no idea who they are.
Two final thoughts on this poll:
- McCollum's numbers are very impressive. They are posted below the fold - he gets close to 50% in matchups against all the Democrats and has substantial leads over each. Though he has lost two bids for the Senate before, Democrats should consider themselves lucky McCollum didn't try a third time.
- The poll does not include Republican Connie Mack IV, who, after Crist, probably enjoys the best name recognition of any potential Republican candidate. His dad was a Senator, and his great-grandfather was a legendary Baseball Hall of Famer. His name recognition is probably not as good as McCollum's, but better than Rubio's. Mack and fellow Republican Rep. Vern Buchanan are now the likeliest - and strongest - potential opponents to Rubio in the primary (barring a Crist run).
Bottom line, this race will be a free-for-all, a knock-down, drag-out fight to the finish, unless Crist gets in. If Crist runs for the seat - and there's no really good reason he would, since he's assured reelection as Governor - he's likely to cruise all the way to Washington.
FLORIDA RESULTS – JANUARY 2009
The Research 2000 Florida Poll was conducted from January 26 through January 28, 2009. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.
Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.
NOTE: There was an over sample conducted among Democratic and Republican primary voters totaling 400. The margin of error is 5% for both.
SAMPLE FIGURES:
Men 288 (48%)
Women 312 (52%)
Democrats 228 (38%)
Republicans 198 (33%)
Independents/Other 174 (29%)
White 425 (71%)
Black 77 (13%)
Hispanic 86 (14%)
Other 12 (2%)
18-29 102 (17%)
30-44 162 (27%)
45-59 210 (35%)
60+ 126 (21%)
Northeast 98 interviews
Central 147 interviews
Tampa 102 interviews
Southwest 75 interviews
South 178 interviews
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VORERS ONLY
Men 172 (43%)
Women 228 (57%)
White 272 (68%)
Black 72 (18%)
Hispanic 48 (12%)
Other 8 (2%)
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS ONLY
Men 223 (56%)
Women 177 (44%)
DEMOCRATIC RESPONDENTS
QUESTION: If the 2010 Democratic Primary for U.S. Senate were held today which of the following would you vote for? (ROTATED):
ALL MEN WOMEN White Black Hispanic Other
Meek 17% 12% 21% 11% 34% 23% 24%
Boyd 8% 12% 5% 11% 1% 8% 6%
Gelber 3% 2% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2%
Undecided (NOT READ) 72% 74% 70% 75% 62% 67% 68%
REPUBLICAN RESPONDENTS
QUESTION: If the 2010 Republican Primary for U.S. Senate were held today which of the following would you vote for? (ROTATED):
ALL MEN WOMEN
Crist 57% 54% 61%
McCollum 11% 14% 7%
Rubio 4% 5% 3%
Undecided (NOT READ) 28% 27% 29%
QUESTION: If the 2010 Republican Primary for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Mark Rubio and Bill McCollum?
ALL MEN WOMEN
McCollum 28% 25% 30%
Rubio 12% 20% 13%
Undecided (NOT READ) 60% 55% 57%
ALL RESPONDENTS
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Kendrick Meek? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 5% 13% 5% 2% 75%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 18% 7% 75%
MEN 16% 8% 76%
WOMEN 20% 6% 74%
DEMOCRATS 35% 4% 61%
REPUBLICANS 3% 12% 85%
INDEPENDENTS 13% 6% 81%
18-29 22% 4% 74%
30-44 17% 9% 74%
45-59 19% 6% 75%
60+ 15% 9% 76%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Allen Boyd? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 3% 11% 5% 4% 77%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 14% 9% 77%
MEN 17% 8% 75%
WOMEN 11% 10% 79%
DEMOCRATS 16% 6% 78%
REPUBLICANS 15% 14% 71%
INDEPENDENTS 11% 8% 81%
18-29 15% 7% 78%
30-44 14% 10% 76%
45-59 15% 8% 77%
60+ 13% 12% 75%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Dan Gelber (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 4% 8% 2% 1% 85%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 12% 3% 85%
MEN 12% 4% 84%
WOMEN 12% 2% 86%
DEMOCRATS 21% 2% 77%
REPUBLICANS 3% 5% 92%
INDEPENDENTS 9% 3% 88%
18-29 15% 2% 83%
30-44 11% 4% 85%
45-59 14% 2% 84%
60+ 9% 4% 87%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Charlie Crist? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 31% 34% 15% 8% 12%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 65% 23% 12%
MEN 68% 21% 11%
WOMEN 62% 25% 13%
DEMOCRATS 58% 30% 12%
REPUBLICANS 74% 16% 10%
INDEPENDENTS 64% 22% 14%
18-29 60% 26% 14%
30-44 68% 22% 10%
45-59 63% 24% 13%
60+ 69% 19% 12%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Bill McCollum? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 12% 30% 11% 12% 35%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 42% 23% 35%
MEN 46% 20% 34%
WOMEN 38% 26% 36%
DEMOCRATS 31% 38% 31%
REPUBLICANS 57% 10% 33%
INDEPENDENTS 39% 19% 42%
18-29 38% 27% 35%
30-44 44% 21% 35%
45-59 40% 25% 35%
60+ 47% 19% 34%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mark Rubio? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 5% 6% 8% 9% 72%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 11% 17% 72%
MEN 12% 17% 71%
WOMEN 11% 17% 72%
DEMOCRATS 8% 19% 73%
REPUBLICANS 15% 14% 71%
INDEPENDENTS 10% 18% 72%
18-29 9% 18% 73%
30-44 13% 15% 72%
45-59 9% 19% 72%
60+ 12% 16% 72%
QUESTION: If 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Kendrick Meek the Democrat and Charlie Crist the Republican?
CRIST MEEK UNDECIDED
ALL 49% 28% 23%
MEN 53% 25% 22%
WOMEN 45% 31% 24%
DEMOCRATS 17% 49% 34%
REPUBLICANS 85% 5% 10%
INDEPENDENTS 50% 26% 24%
WHITE 56% 21% 23%
BLACK 5% 63% 32%
HISPANIC 52% 30% 18%
OTHER 48% 33% 19%
18-29 46% 30% 24%
30-44 51% 26% 23%
45-59 47% 29% 24%
60+ 53% 26% 21%
NORTHEAST 60% 16% 24%
CENTRAL 50% 23% 27%
TAMPA 48% 28% 24%
SOUTHWEST 52% 21% 27%
SOUTH 41% 43% 16%
QUESTION: If 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Allen Boyd the Democrat and Charlie Crist the Republican?
CRIST BOYD UNDECIDED
ALL 52% 26% 22%
MEN 54% 25% 21%
WOMEN 50% 27% 23%
DEMOCRATS 21% 45% 34%
REPUBLICANS 87% 3% 10%
INDEPENDENTS 54% 22% 24%
WHITE 60% 22% 18%
BLACK 3% 42% 55%
HISPANIC 56% 29% 15%
OTHER 53% 30% 17%
18-29 49% 28% 23%
30-44 54% 24% 22%
45-59 50% 27% 23%
60+ 56% 24% 20%
NORTHEAST 61% 15% 24%
CENTRAL 54% 21% 25%
TAMPA 53% 26% 21%
SOUTHWEST 55% 20% 25%
SOUTH 43% 40% 17%
QUESTION: If 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Dan Gelber the Democrat and Charlie Crist the Republican?
CRIST GELBER UNDECIDED
ALL 52% 21% 27%
MEN 54% 20% 26%
WOMEN 50% 22% 28%
DEMOCRATS 21% 37% 42%
REPUBLICANS 87% 3% 10%
INDEPENDENTS 53% 20% 27%
WHITE 60% 16% 24%
BLACK 3% 44% 53%
HISPANIC 56% 25% 19%
OTHER 53% 28% 19%
18-29 48% 23% 29%
30-44 54% 19% 27%
45-59 50% 23% 27%
60+ 56% 20% 24%
NORTHEAST 61% 11% 28%
CENTRAL 54% 16% 30%
TAMPA 53% 18% 29%
SOUTHWEST 55% 15% 30%
SOUTH 43% 36% 21%
QUESTION: If 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Kendrick Meek the Democrat and Bill McCollum the Republican?
MCCOLLUM MEEK UNDECIDED
ALL 47% 31% 22%
MEN 53% 27% 20%
WOMEN 41% 35% 24%
DEMOCRATS 16% 53% 31%
REPUBLICANS 84% 5% 11%
INDEPENDENTS 46% 31% 23%
WHITE 55% 23% 22%
BLACK 3% 68% 29%
HISPANIC 49% 35% 16%
OTHER 46% 38% 16%
18-29 43% 35% 22%
30-44 50% 29% 21%
45-59 44% 33% 23%
60+ 52% 27% 21%
NORTHEAST 60% 17% 23%
CENTRAL 48% 26% 26%
TAMPA 45% 32% 23%
SOUTHWEST 52% 22% 26%
SOUTH 37% 47% 16%
QUESTION: If 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Allen Boyd the Democrat and Bill McCollum the Republican?
MCCOLLUM BOYD UNDECIDED
ALL 48% 28% 24%
MEN 52% 26% 22%
WOMEN 44% 30% 26%
DEMOCRATS 16% 49% 35%
REPUBLICANS 85% 5% 10%
INDEPENDENTS 49% 27% 24%
WHITE 56% 25% 19%
BLACK 4% 41% 55%
HISPANIC 50% 32% 18%
OTHER 47% 34% 19%
18-29 43% 29% 28%
30-44 51% 27% 22%
45-59 45% 29% 26%
60+ 53% 27% 20%
NORTHEAST 61% 17% 22%
CENTRAL 49% 23% 28%
TAMPA 46% 28% 26%
SOUTHWEST 53% 22% 25%
SOUTH 37% 42% 21%
QUESTION: If 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Dan Gelber the Democrat and Bill McCollum the Republican?
MCCOLLUM GELBER UNDECIDED
ALL 50% 22% 28%
MEN 54% 20% 26%
WOMEN 46% 24% 30%
DEMOCRATS 18% 39% 43%
REPUBLICANS 86% 3% 11%
INDEPENDENTS 51% 21% 28%
WHITE 59% 16% 25%
BLACK 3% 46% 51%
HISPANIC 50% 29% 21%
OTHER 46% 31% 23%
18-29 44% 24% 32%
30-44 55% 20% 25%
45-59 47% 24% 29%
60+ 56% 21% 23%
NORTHEAST 63% 11% 26%
CENTRAL 52% 16% 32%
TAMPA 48% 20% 32%
SOUTHWEST 55% 14% 31%
SOUTH 40% 39% 21%
QUESTION: If 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Kendrick Meek the Democrat and Mark Rubio the Republican?
MEEK RUBIO UNDECIDED
ALL 31% 22% 47%
MEN 28% 26% 46%
WOMEN 34% 18% 48%
DEMOCRATS 53% 6% 41%
REPUBLICANS 5% 42% 53%
INDEPENDENTS 32% 20% 48%
WHITE 25% 26% 49%
BLACK 64% 3% 33%
HISPANIC 32% 19% 49%
OTHER 35% 16% 49%
18-29 35% 18% 47%
30-44 28% 25% 47%
45-59 34% 20% 46%
60+ 26% 26% 48%
NORTHEAST 16% 29% 55%
CENTRAL 27% 24% 49%
TAMPA 31% 17% 52%
SOUTHWEST 21% 28% 51%
SOUTH 46% 18% 36%
QUESTION: If 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Allen Boyd the Democrat and Mark Rubio the Republican?
BOYD RUBIO UNDECIDED
ALL 29% 22% 49%
MEN 27% 25% 48%
WOMEN 31% 19% 50%
DEMOCRATS 50% 5% 45%
REPUBLICANS 5% 43% 52%
INDEPENDENTS 28% 21% 51%
WHITE 26% 26% 48%
BLACK 43% 3% 54%
HISPANIC 32% 18% 50%
OTHER 35% 16% 49%
18-29 30% 17% 53%
30-44 29% 25% 46%
45-59 29% 20% 51%
60+ 28% 26% 46%
NORTHEAST 17% 28% 55%
CENTRAL 24% 24% 52%
TAMPA 29% 17% 54%
SOUTHWEST 22% 29% 49%
SOUTH 43% 18% 39%
QUESTION: If 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Dan Gelber the Democrat and Mark Rubio the Republican?
GELBER RUBIO UNDECIDED
ALL 23% 23% 54%
MEN 21% 26% 53%
WOMEN 25% 20% 55%
DEMOCRATS 40% 5% 55%
REPUBLICANS 4% 45% 51%
INDEPENDENTS 22% 22% 56%
WHITE 17% 28% 55%
BLACK 48% 3% 49%
HISPANIC 30% 19% 51%
OTHER 31% 15% 54%
18-29 25% 17% 58%
30-44 21% 27% 52%
45-59 24% 20% 56%
60+ 21% 27% 52%
NORTHEAST 11% 29% 60%
CENTRAL 16% 25% 59%
TAMPA 21% 17% 62%
SOUTHWEST 14% 31% 55%
SOUTH 40% 18% 42%