On April 1, 2010, the key question in America will be how many people live in each housing unit, and with what vigor they are counted.
Some people will help this process along by promptly filling out the questionnaires sent to them. Others will help by calling the Census Bureau and saying they never got the form and it should be mailed anew.
But still others need a personal visit, or more than one personal visit to agree to cooperate. And then there are some people who just will not cooperate, whose information has to be guessed at by neighbors who tell whatever they know.
The Census counts are a form of voter registration. They determine how much land area is in each district from which a decision-maker is elected to participate in collective decision-making, whether we are talking about the governing bodies of local government, state government, or the U.S. House of Representatives. They also determine how much federal aid for various programs flows to one locality or another.
It matters how much resources--monetary and human--are spent to count the people living in each location. It matters whether there is a real effort to do whatever it takes to count each person, or whether there is just a measured effort that stops short of counting everyone.
The key question about the appointment of Senator Judd Gregg as Secretary of Commerce is what his role in the Census Bureau will be. Will he appoint the head of the Census Bureau? What role will he play in deciding its budget? What role will he play in the numerous operational questions as to how the census operates? Will we get a report of solid efforts doomed by inadequate resources, or will we get a full count?
Under Bill Clinton, we got as close to a full count as possible, as numerous cities, including my city of Philadelphia, reported many more residents than the Census Bureau had estimated. Indeed, the participation of the previously hidden residents foreshadowed the mobilization that would occur in the Obama campaign.
With redistricting at stake in the U.S. House, every state legislature, every local governmental unit that elects by districts, the importance of full count in 2010 cannot be underestimated. Control of Congress or houses of the 50 state legislatures could depend on it.
Republican National Chairman Michael Steele has called for Gregg to withdraw as Commerce Secreatry. I would not protest if Gregg takes Steele's advice. But, assuming Gregg stays interested in the Secretary of Commerce job and it remains on the table for him, we have a serious potential problem with redistricting in 2010 if Gregg takes charge of it.