Here it is, my third look at the Senate races of 2010, a cycle in which Democrats look to top that always-seductive 60, and Republicans look to...well, prevent that.
Perhaps recent debates about the economic recovery plan have reminded all of us just how important Senate margins are (as if we ever forgot). While the House is a generally partisan chamber in which the majority party more or less gets its way no matter how large its seat padding, Senate battles can jump across party lines and cloture votes can be agonizingly tough even for a well-insured majority party. In other words, a 60th or 61st Senate seat would be infinitely more valuable for the Democrats (particularly given the vacancy in Minnesota and the current absence of Ted Kennedy) than a continued 257-178 advantage in the House.
How close are we to getting a truly comfortable Senate majority, even one that depends on centrist Democrats? Read below the fold...
As always, seats are ranked by likelihood of flipping:
- New Hampshire (open) -- Bonnie Newman (R) retiring after partial term
Outlook: Tossup/Leans Democratic pickup
January Ranking: 9th
I'm making two assumptions here, assumptions that native Granite Staters like the always reticent Elwood Dowd would caution against. First, I'm expecting that Judd Gregg is confirmed as Commerce Secretary by his fellow Senators; second, I'm assuming that Newman keeps her promise to retire in 2010. If she were to break her promise à la Susan Collins and so many Gingrich-era House Republicans, it wouldn't necessarily take this seat off the top spot; her name recognition certainly has a long way to go, and this was a fairly strong Obama state in 2008 with unambiguous blue trends since the early 1990s at least. Democrats also have a top-tier candidate now in Rep. Paul Hodes of Concord, whose grip on the Dem-leaning western half of the state is considered strong and who will probably focus on improving his name recognition in the less Democratic, more urban 1st District (it voted for Obama 53-46, but is considered swing territory, and includes major towns like Manchester, Laconia, Rochester, and Portsmouth). In any case, a Hodes vs. Newman race would, CW presumes, be competitive, and may even tilt Hodes' way given the Democratic lean of the state. If Newman keeps her promise and retires, the GOP will be left scratching their heads looking for a candidate who's actually won an election some time in the last decade (ousted former Sen. John Sununu?).
- Ohio (open) -- George Voinovich (R) retiring after 2 terms
Outlook: Tossup
January Ranking: 1st
While a PPP poll right after Voinovich's retirement announcement made this look like a 50/50 proposition at best for Democrats, Quinnipiac has some encouraging numbers, with former Rep. Rob Portman (R) behind possible Democratic candidates like Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (who leads 42-27) and Secy. of State Jennifer Brunner (38-28). At this early date, this may be a measure of name recognition, but it is also a sign that the GOP floor in Ohio is under 30%, while the Democratic floor is a good 10 points higher. For whatever reason, they didn't poll Portman against Rep. Tim Ryan (D), a likely candidate, but a primary between Fisher, Brunner, and Ryan looks wide open. As if the field wasn't open enough, ousted former Sen. Mike DeWine (R) says he is looking to wage a comeback, either for Senate, or Governor, or something else. The GOP establishment has quickly coalesced around Portman, so would he really have the gumption to try for this one? Big picture: Republicans should be a bit less bullish this far out about Portman's viability; the wounds from Taft and Bush have not yet healed in Ohio, as Obama's 51-47 victory in the state, and Gov. Strickland's Quinnipiac poll numbers, demonstrate.
- Missouri (open) -- Kit Bond (R) retiring after 4 terms
Outlook: Tossup
January Ranking: 3rd
Democratic Secy. of State Robin Carnahan is in, excellent news for Show Me State Democrats seeking to gain a second Senate seat in the state. No serious Republican contenders yet, but Rep. Roy Blunt, Lt. Gov. Pete Kinder, and Treasurer Sarah Steelman are all reportedly considering. For now, Carnahan, like Hodes in New Hampshire, has the field to herself, and PPP poll numbers from before Carnahan's entrance show her doing encouragingly well -- even at worst -- with the state's white voters (by comparison, Obama lost Missouri whites 57-42 and still came just 3900 votes short).
- Florida (open) -- Mel Martinez (R) retiring after 1 term
Outlook: Tossup
January Ranking: 2nd
Obama won Florida and lost Missouri...without better data, why is this below Missouri on my list? Well, two reasons. The first is based in raw fact: while the top Dem name in Missouri, Robin Carnahan, is running, her counterpart in Florida, oft-touted State CFO Alex Sink, is not. That was a disappointment for Sunshine State Democrats eager to avoid a competitive primary after their experience in 2004. For now, the two major candidates are both from already liberal-leaning and safely blue South Florida: Rep. Kendrick Meek of Miami and State Sen. Dan Gelber of Miami Beach. Talk has begun about Tampa Mayor Pam Iorio, but nothing concrete yet. My second reason is based in rumor and speculation: no Republican candidate has yet announced, but Rep. Connie Mack of Fort Myers and even popular Gov. Charlie Crist are ostensibly looking at the race. Both would seem to have advantages Meek and Gelber don't (yet) - Mack has high statewide name recognition from his father's days as a Senator, and Crist has both the same name recognition and high approval ratings. On top of this, there is gossip that Martinez will resign early and allow Crist to name a replacement (possibly himself?). The rumor mill may be out of control as usual, but the endurance of the Florida Republican machine leads me to keep this one ranked 4th.
- Kentucky (open) -- Jim Bunning (R) running for 3rd term
Outlook: Tossup
January Ranking: 7th
Okay, folks, I'm on the bandwagon. Bunning really is in trouble, for now. While Republicans have a habit of pulling off close Senate races in Kentucky (as they did in 1984, 1990, 1998, 2004, and 2008), rarely have the polls been so bad for them this early. Bunning already has a tough challenger in Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo (a rerun from 2004, when he held Bunning to a 51-49 win reliant on Bush coattails in the state), and our own Research 2000 poll has Bunning up 46-42 over Mongiardo. Needless to say, these are not good numbers for the erstwhile baseball star. Others have suggested that southern Democrats tend to perform better in low-turnout midterm elections without a presidential race aiding the GOP; I would doubt that premise in a state with plentiful African-Americans such as Virginia, North Carolina, or Georgia, but in the "border South" or "Clinton South" (Kentucky, Arkansas, Tennessee, Missouri, West Virginia, et al.) there may be a good case for that. Like I said, we should err on the bearish side with Kentucky Senate contests, but Mongiardo (or whichever other top Dem steps up) is looking good at the outset.
- Nevada -- Harry Reid (D) running for 5th term
Outlook: Tossup
January Ranking: 4th
No news seems to be good news for the Senate Majority Leader, whom Republicans have long said they will target for defeat. Former Rep. Jon Porter is still the only big-name Republican getting much talk, and he's not made any steps just yet toward running. If the NRSC had more viable targets than it does, Reid would (paradoxically) be lower on the list, but as things stand today, he is the only incumbent Democrat against whom they can realistically spend money (and they are, with a much-discussed new TV ad).
- North Carolina -- Richard Burr (R) running for 2nd term
Outlook: Tossup/Leans Republican hold
January Ranking: 5th
For good chatter about the still-unformed North Carolina Senate race, I'd recommend a North Carolina blog (or the PPP blogspot site; Tom Jensen has plenty to say about it). Suffice to say, no Democrat is running yet, but without a gubernatorial or presidential race atop the ticket, North Carolina Dems will have their fire trained on Burr for the next 21 months. Jensen compares Burr's numbers to Elizabeth Dole's in late 2007 (catch that? Late 2007, less than a year before her 9-point ouster). Perhaps Burr is a superior politician to Dole, and perhaps even Dole could have turned things around with ten extra months of notice, but meanwhile, you can bet Bob Menendez is talking to probable candidates here such as Rep. Heath Shuler from the Appalachian west and Atty. Gen. Roy Cooper. Oh, and the obligatory history reminder for the superstitious among us: this is the cursed Sam Ervin seat. Ever since Ervin's triumphant post-Watergate retirement in 1974, the seat has swung back and forth between Democrats (in 1974, 1986, and 1998) and Republicans (in 1980, 1992, and 2004). Can Burr break the spell, or should we really stop looking for magic and witchcraft in modern politics?
- Pennsylvania -- Arlen Specter (R) running for 6th term
Outlook: Leans Republican hold
January Ranking: 6th
Specter caught a potentially huge break when former Rep. Pat Toomey, a movement right-winger who nearly toppled the longtime incumbent in an ugly 2004 primary, announced he'd stay out of the race. While this is bad news for Democrats' hopes of a weakened Specter in advance of the general election, it could be quite good news from a policy standpoint. A confident Specter may be more likely to go with Democrats on contentious labor and economic issues like the Employee Free Choice Act (which he supported in 2007). Specter's pro-union image has been a key element in his survival all these years; his narrow 1992 victory was aided greatly by Lynn Yeakel's inability to secure big margins with union members, and his easy 2004 win was in no small part fueled by a surprising AFL-CIO endorsement, a crippling development at the time for Joe Hoeffel. But all this means it will now take a stellar Democratic candidate to beat him, and I have a feeling 8th is as high as this race will be on the list.
- Illinois -- Roland Burris (D) running for full term
Outlook: Leans Democratic hold? Probably?
January Ranking: 12th
It's not that the Democrats are looking more vulnerable in Illinois than they were last month. On the contrary, the Burris controversy has dimmed and Rod Blagojevich was booted from office, so Illinois Dems should feel relatively okay right now. It's merely that other incumbents, like Michael Bennet and David Vitter, are facing no genuine threats right now. That, and the fact that the Kathleen Sebelius talk in Kansas has quieted for the time being. Make no mistake about it: Republicans intend to compete in Illinois and rehash memories of Blagojevich and the "Appointment-gate" media frenzy. But in November 2010, will Illinoisans care more about a corrupt former governor's exploits, or the real world efficacy of the President's economic policies? Put another way, I offer this rhetorical question...which is playing in Peoria right now - the stimulus or George Ryan?
- Colorado -- Michael Bennet (D) running for full term
Outlook: Leans Democratic hold
January Ranking: 8th
For an unknown who has never before run for office, Bennet sure knows how to clear a field. Colorado Republicans seem to be somewhat stripped of talent as they look to names like Rep. Mike Coffman, former Rep. Tom Tancredo, and former Rep. Scott McInnis for inspiration. (A brief note about McInnis: I hear this guy's name floated for either Senate or Governor every election cycle, yet I don't ever know of him taking the plunge and running for higher office. He seems to be to Colorado what Mike Moore is to Mississippi.) The biggest news out of the Rockies is that Atty. Gen. John Suthers, the top GOPer in statewide office, won't run. Bennet is, they say, so far keeping a low profile but making plenty of friends. Given budget crises in nearly all 50 states, I wonder if ambitious Republicans will choose to mount more gubernatorial than Senate runs, as a general trend. It's too early to tell, but by mid-2010, Democrats in Denver may be more attractive objects of attack than President Obama in Washington.
- Kansas (open) -- Sam Brownback (R) retiring after 2 full terms / possibly running for Governor
Outlook: Likely Republican hold (unless Sebelius runs)
January Ranking: 11th
Whither Kathleen Sebelius' Senate run? She hasn't ruled it out yet, but the talk has really halted. It may be because of our collective obsession with the happenings in Obama-era Washington, or because of the wide open contests in battlegrounds Florida, Ohio, Missouri, and New Hampshire, but it may also be because her surrogates are closing down the gossip. With the governor's mansion looking ready to fall to the GOP, Kansas Democrats definitely have their fingers crossed for a Sebelius entrance, particularly given the possibility of a nasty GOP primary between Reps. Jerry Moran (of sparsely populated western Kansas) and Todd Tiahrt (of the Wichita area). Why is Sebelius running so important? Well, a brand new Research 2000 poll has Sebelius leading Tiahrt 47-37 and Moran 48-36. Run, Governor, run! Now, the de rigueur beltway media reminder: no Democrat has won a Senate race in the Sunflower State since 1932, and I believe that's the longest dry spell for Democrats in any state.
- Louisiana -- David Vitter (R) running for 2nd term
Outlook: Likely Republican hold
January Ranking: 10th
I get more and more pessimistic about this "race" (if you can call it that; there are no rumors of a top-tier Democratic recruit) every week. How Vitter managed to withstand a hooker scandal I'll never know, but the collapse of Democratic fortunes in the Pelican State since 2004 surely didn't hurt his cause. If neither Rep. Charlie Melancon nor Atty. Gen. Buddy Caldwell jump in soon, I may just drop this one off the list of remotely competitive seats.
As in January, I only see 12 races with a realistic chance of getting heated, out of 36. But there are a few that are on the margins, just within the realm of safety as I see them. They are:
- New York Part B -- Kirsten Gillibrand (D) running for full term
Outlook: Probably safe Democratic hold
Gillibrand is already demonstrating a voting record solidarity with Chuck Schumer that should to some measure endear her to liberal New York City primary voters. Big margins in the city and popularity in key upstate pockets should just about lock up her reelection, but Rep. Pete King of Long Island is looking to stir things up. Of course, as an open seat, NY-03 would be at least as attractive an opportunity to us as Gillibrand's NY-20 is to the GOP today.
- Delaware (open) -- Ted Kaufman (D) retiring after partial term
Outlook: Probably safe Democratic hold
As in January, I'm merely allowing for the unlikelihood of Rep. Mike Castle (R) running for a promotion at the springy age of 71, and with 18 years of House seniority under his belt. Smart money is still on a big-name Democrat like the Vice President's son, Atty. Gen. Beau Biden, to easily follow Kaufman into the Senate.
- Alaska -- Lisa Murkowski (R) running for 2nd full term
Outlook: Very probably safe Republican hold
Murkowski has of late cultivated an image as a moderate, and a moderate Republican could definitely catch flak from the Sarah Palin wing of the state party. Palin herself has even been bandied about as a primary challenger, though everyone seems to expect a 2012 presidential run instead. I truly think that Murkowski, like John McCain and (back in the day) Chuck Hagel, will win easy reelections from now on despite grumbling in the hard-right camp.
- Wisconsin -- Russ Feingold (D) running for 4th term
Outlook: Please, it'll be a safe Democratic hold
There is, I hear, a trickle of renewed interest in potential Feingold vulnerability. My $0.02? The time for Republicans to unseat Feingold was 1998, with Monicagate looming large, a strong GOP candidate in Mark Neumann, and coattails from then-Gov. Tommy Thompson. By now, Feingold is entrenched and has something of a larger-than-life image as freethinking and bold. Heck, forget 1998; if attacks on his PATRIOT Act vote couldn't derail him, or even hold him below 55%, in security-conscious 2004, what is the GOP game plan for taking him down now?
There could be game-changing announcements like Homeland Security Secy. Janet Napolitano challenging John McCain in Arizona, former Gov. Mike Huckabee against Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas, or Agriculture Secy. Tom Vilsack taking on Chuck Grassley in Iowa, and Gov. John Hoeven could indeed go after Byron Dorgan in North Dakota, but I really doubt that any of these things will pan out. There are also the occasional retirement rumors about Barbara Mikulski and Tom Coburn, but I think both states should be pretty safe for the incumbent party even as open seats. So, without further ado, the list of...
Senators I really think are safe come rain or shine
Shelby (Alabama), McCain (Arizona), Lincoln (Arkansas), Boxer (California), Dodd (Connecticut), Isakson (Georgia), Inouye (Hawaii), Crapo (Idaho), Bayh (Indiana), Grassley (Iowa), Mikulski (Maryland), Schumer (New York), Dorgan (North Dakota), Coburn (Oklahoma), Wyden (Oregon), DeMint (South Carolina), Thune (South Dakota), Bennett (Utah), Leahy (Vermont), Murray (Washington)
And a wildcard: Texas. There is not, per se, a Texas Senate race in 2010. But CW says Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) will challenge (and probably defeat) sitting (and Palin-endorsed) Republican Gov. Rick Perry in the GOP primary. My take has always been that she'll wait to win the governor's mansion, then resign her Senate seat, prompting a 2011 special election, but others have insisted she'll leave early to focus full-time on the gov race. Should that happen, we are looking at a mammoth special election in the Lone Star State, with possibly dozens of candidates filing. Top Democrats like former State Comptroller John Sharp are eyeing the race, and needless to say, the GOP bench is deep here. But until Hutchison makes her intentions known, there is no Texas Senate race to speak of.
OVERALL SENATE OUTLOOK... Right now the Democrats are in an excellent position to snatch Ohio and New Hampshire, Missouri looks 50/50 at worst (better if Carnahan draws less-than-impressive GOP opposition), and other opportunities like Florida, Kentucky, and North Carolina are just starting to take shape. Nevada remains the GOP's best (only?) pickup shot, as Burris settles into his Senate gig and Bennet lays low. Meanwhile, what we getteth in New Hampshire we seem to loseth in Pennsylvania as internal dissent over Specter wanes. Counting Franken as seat #59, I'd say that if the election were this month, the Democrats very likely would get 60, and actually, probably 62.
AND A NOTE ABOUT THE HOUSE... Republicans would need a net gain of 10 Senate seats to win back the upper chamber in 2010, and given the paucity of weak Democratic seats as well as the expensive GOP defense in those four swing states, that's far-fetched in even the most backlash-y of 2010 scenarios. But what of the House? Well, the House GOP needs to add 40 to its caucus to get that magic 218 after the next election. They may (or may not) get one from the NY-20 special election, but where do the other 39 gains come from? While most of the low-hanging GOP fruit is gone, Democrats are still likely to unseat Rep. Joseph Cao (R) in Obama-friendly New Orleans, and a possible gubernatorial run by Rep. Jim Gerlach (R) could open up a Democratic-leaning suburban Philly seat. Granted, there are more than a few vulnerable Democrats out there (two obvious ones - Walt Minnick in Idaho and Bobby Bright in Alabama), but few of us can credibly see a 40-seat GOP gain from the current playing field. Pete Sessions' strategy may revolve around a two-cycle plan, with Republicans surpassing 200 seats in 2010 and benefiting from redistricting in 2012, but most would today bet on long-term Democratic dominance in the House considering the now-surprisingly small number of Democratic districts that voted for McCain, and the historic lack of reliance Pelosi's Democratic majority has on strength in the South. That said, it's clichéd but necessary to point out that 12 years of a Republican Congress seemed an absurd concept to observers in early 1993 who had watched Democrats rule Capitol Hill's south side for nearly 40 years straight.
ON PREDICTING ELECTIONS IN GENERAL: Everything can, and probably will, change in the next 21 months. Just in the next couple weeks, the Senate and House will conference to decide the near-future of our nation's economy. As Rachel Maddow puts it, we are vacillating nervously between paycheck and soup line. We all wish the best for President Obama and for our national well-being, yet no one can definitively say whether we'll be out of recession by Election Day 2010, or at 15% unemployment and a sub-6000 Dow. While we knew early in 2007 that 2008 was set for more Democratic gains in Congress, no analyst can seem to get a reliable read on such a fluid and potentially explosive political climate. What history tells us is that Obama's (and the Democrats') fortunes will be tied, at least to an extent, on economic developments. A bad economy should help the minority party in a midterm election, but even that isn't so clear, as the surprising gains made by FDR's Democrats in 1934 show. Frustratingly for those of us with perennial electoral addiction, we JUST DON'T KNOW what the political dynamics will be 21 months from now...and I doubt that this spring's special election in NY-20 will so easily deliver us an accurate sneak preview. In the meantime, we political junkies may be well-advised to watch our own finances and stay abreast of developments on C-SPAN, as those will both tell us far more about what to expect months down the road than any Politico-penned conjecture.