Because the Majority Leader caves every time the Republicans use the F(ilibuster) word, it will take at least a couple of Republicans to vote their way in order to pass the President's stimulus bill.
That said, who are the likely suspects?
From Nate:
There have already been 13 distinct votes on various amendments and elements related to the stimulus package; these are roll call votes numbers 37 through 49 in the Senate's official record.
So far, Senate Democrats have voted in accordance with what we believe to be the administration's position 97.4 percent of the time -- or 98.1 percent of the time if the most common "Democratic" dissenter, Joe Lieberman, is excluded from the tally.
By contrast, the Republicans have voted against the administration's position an average of 89.2 percent of the time. That's fairly unified also, but the Democrats are nevertheless picking off an average of 4 Republican votes on each amendment, whereas the Republicans are getting an average of only 1 and 2 Democrats siding with them. That's a net swing of 2 or 3 votes in the Democrats' direction -- possibly enough to get them to 60 votes when the final bill comes up for passage.
Never mind that Harry Reid should LONG AGO have stated that if you're going to filibuster, you're going to have to do it the old-school way: stand up and talk until your opposition gives up. These days, all you have to do is tell the Majority Leader you want to filibuster and he ... caves. You hand him a slip of paper and -- voila! -- the necessary majority now goes from 51 to 60 votes (or 59 if Kennedy, Franken and Gregg are not present to vote -- see below).
No sense in railing about it. It is what it is.
That said, here's an excerpt from a larger graphic from Nate's site that shows how certain "centrist" Senators have voted on the various amendments.
Each Senator's name is colored according to the customary party color of blue/red.
Then each square represents a vote on an amendment, with blue meaning that Senator voted with the Dems, and a red square meaning they voted with the GOP.
What you can see here quite clearly is that there were three Dems who occasionally voted with the GOP and five Republicans who voted with the Dems -- therefore a net +2 for the Dems on the bill.
Of course this not a guarantee that those Senators will vote for or against the final bill, but if I'm Dick Durbin (Majority Whip) this is probably what my list looks like.
P.S. Bear in mind that there may be only 97 Senators who vote on this bill in the end. Senator Gregg will not vote on the final bill, having announced that he will recuse himself as the Commerce Secretary in waiting. As for Kennedy, his health may or may not be a factor in the final vote. And Minnesota effectively has only one Senator for now. So if I understand the rules correctly, you could defeat a filibuster with 59, not 60, votes. Either way, the Dems still need a net of at least +2 Republicans to vote their way.
P.P.S. Also notable by their absence from the list of "centrist" Senators are Mary Landrieu (D-LA) and Karen Gillebrand (D-NY).