With elections in Israel only a few days away, things are changing, and changing fast.
A week ago, everybody was sure Kadima was fading and Likud had a lock on the elections, with Netanyahu a shoo-in for PM. Maybe not.
First, the big news. The polls are getting close.
Likud and Kadima are in a neck-and-neck race to be the next Knesset's largest party, according to the latest Haaretz-Dialog poll.
The poll, the last to be published before next Tuesday's election, showed the gap between the two parties continuing to narrow: It is now down to only two seats in Likud's favor.
On the other hand,
Avigdor Lieberman's far-right-wing Yisrael Beiteinu party continues to surge: The latest poll, which surveyed 1,000 people - double the usual number - showed it winning 18 seats, up from 15 last week. If this forecast proves accurate, Labor will be relegated, for the first time in its history, to the fourth-largest party, with only 14 seats.
It seems that the right wing is remaining somewhat constant, with Yisrael Beiteinu taking votes from Likud. However, a right-wing government under Netanyahu is really not that popular an idea in Israel:
Only 30 percent of respondents said they want Netanyahu to be the next prime minister. But 64 percent said they think he will be.
Which means the real story is in the undecideds. Four days before the election a full 25% of the Knesset is still in the hands of the undecided voters. Will they stay home? Will they vote?
I don't know, do you think the return of Gilad Shalit, a move orchestrated by a Kadim government, might make a difference?
According to CNNTurk:
a deal to secure the release of abducted Israel Defense Forces soldier Gilad Shalit may be reached by Tuesday.
Do you think that might move some of the 900,000 undecided voters off the fence? Not enough, how about if the talks in Egypt lead to a truce agreement, with the PA controlling the border crossings, not Hamas? Not only is that
debateslooking possible, it also looks like it is part of the Shalit release deal:
A key issue in the negotiations is the opening of Rafah crossing, which Hamas is seeking to have opened completely, with Turkish troops monitoring its operation, in accordance with a plan drafted by the United States three years ago. Egypt is opposed to such a move, but is nevertheless seeking to place a force loyal to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas at the crossing, a proposal Hamas has thus far resisted.
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Another critical issue involves the link between the release of captive Israel Defense Forces soldier Gilad Shalit with the lull and the opening of crossings. Israel is demanding that even a partial opening of the crossings be dependent on progress towards Shalit's release, for example providing a clear sign the soldier is still alive. Hamas has until now opposed such a link. Egypt has expressed uncertainty in relation to its capacity to force Hamas into such an agreement, but promised Israel it would make efforts towards that end.
In other news from the I/P front:
Mubarak blames Hamas for the spilling of Arab blood
"How long will Arab blood continue to be spilled, only to hear those who admit to miscalculating the scope and scale of Israel's response?" Mubarak asked in a speech marking Egypt's national day to honor its police force.
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The Egyptian president also hinted that Hamas and other militant Palestinian factions are serving the Iranian agenda in the region, especially since the fighting in Gaza ended. "They are trying to take advantage of Israeli aggression to force a new reality on the current Palestinian and Arab situation. A new reality that will alter the equation and reorganize the balance in favor of known regional powers and will serve their agenda," Mubarak said. His comment came in response to Meshal's recent calls for the establishment of an alternative Palestinian body, to rival Fatah in representing the Palestinian people.
Speaking of Hamas and Iran, something interesting is happening in Greece:
Greece holding Iran-bound missile ship
Greek authorities are holding an Iran-bound ship carrying materials for the manufacture of surface-to-surface missiles, the Elefterotipia newspaper reported Friday.
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Last week, the Cypriot Navy stopped a Syria-bound Iranian ship, believed to be carrying weapons for Hamas.
I guess that's a few missiles Hamas will have to forego. But they won't have to forego UNRWA food and supplies, even if they have to take it at gunpoint. "What's the problem," you ask, "isn't that aid for the people in Gaza?" Well, yes, but Hamas doesn't want the people in Gaza to get it. Hamas wants Hamas supporters in Gaza to get it. You see, food and supplies to Hamas are not necessities, but rewards for support.
UNRWA suspends Gaza aid after Hamas steals food and supplies
The United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) on Friday said it is suspending humanitarian aid in Gaza until further notice, after Hamas seized control of its warehouses and stole 200 tons of food and supplies.
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In Gaza, Hamas spokesman Fawzi Barhoum called UNRWA's decision unjustified.
He said Hamas supports UNRWA's work, but believes that some of the agency's employees were giving aid to groups attached to rival political parties.
Israel, on the other hand, is loosening up restrictions into Gaza, and most recently released NIS 175 million in cash to pay government payrolls in the Gaza Strip. There is no question it wasn't Israel's money, and it was always intended to pay those salaries, but doing so, rather than refusing out of fear the money will land in Hamas' pocket, is an improvement, no matter how you slice it.
Worldwide, anti-Semitic violence is on the rise. In Holland, shots were fired at a mental health clinic run by the Jewish Community Center, rocks were thrown at a synagogue, and a molotov cocktail was thrown at a Jewish-owned building.
Back to the election. Livni is calling for a debate with Netanyahu. As the poll numbers close, as the possibility of a deal brokered by Egypt and the return of Shalit gets more real, do you think he accepts?
Interesting.
Okay, do you think we can get through this without using the words "Nazi" or "genocide"?