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According to an article published today in Politico, Senator Menendez the Democratic Senate Campaign chief has announced that the Democrats are targeting 9 seats for the 2010 election.

The article, available at Politico says

[...] the party would target five open GOP seats and would mount challenges to sitting incumbents in Louisiana, North Carolina, and[sic] Kentucky, and Pennsylvania.

Those five open GOP seats are Florida, New Hampshire, Kansas, Missouri, and Ohio.

One strange part of the story is that he said that

Adding to his optimism, the New Jersey senator said there wouldn’t be any 2010 Democratic retirements.

Does this mean that Ted Kaufman intends to run in the special election in 2010 rather than it being an coronation for Beau Biden?

Both the Cook Political Report and the Rothenberg Political Report have five of these nine seats in the tossup category (FL, KY, MO, NH, and Ohio), three in the Leans R category (LA and PA in both, KS in the Cook and NC in the Rotherberg) and one in the Likely Republican category (NC in the Cook and KS in the Rothenberg).

Originally posted to naraht on Thu Feb 12, 2009 at 03:24 PM PST.

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Comment Preferences

  •  hmmm what about Arizona? (6+ / 0-)

    I would have loved the DSCC have the same courage the DCCC had in putting Eric Cantor in the crosshairs.

    John McCain is definitely beatable especially if he gets primaried......

    Is there enough Democratic money to go around to compete in every area?

    Also...what about Iowa?  That should be another one targeted.

    wow...11 seats...win 6 and we are at 65 senate seats.

    Think of the potential.

    Republicans===the party of the 1% rich people in America. Or in other words..The Party of NO!

    by jalapeno on Thu Feb 12, 2009 at 03:27:41 PM PST

    •  If Sebelius runs, (3+ / 0-)

      Sebelius wins.  Of course, if Napolitano runs, she wins too.  That aside, look for NH, OH, PA, MO, FL, and NC.  If Grassley retires (and I doubt he will), put IA in there too.  The only seat that got switched in the transition that I worry about is CO, but only barely.  The only seat that 538 says we'll probably get that I don't think so yet is KY.

      But, I'd love to see Sebelius and Napolitano in the Senate, wouldn't you?

      The Republican Party: the party of greed, hate, anger, fear, waste, death and destruction!

      by ultrageek on Thu Feb 12, 2009 at 03:31:27 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Agreed on Iowa (0+ / 0-)

        I think Grassley probably runs, but you never know.  Also, if "you betcha" were to take on Lisa Murkowski in a primary, it could present an opening.  Also.  Finally, a Shelby retirement in Alabama could create a glimmer of hope--especially if one of the three candidates looking at the governor's race runs for it.

        And that doesn't include the shadow race for Hutchison's seat in Texas.

        The frogurt is also cursed. -8.25, -6.51

        by Superribbie on Thu Feb 12, 2009 at 03:37:17 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Napolitano can't really run (0+ / 0-)

        She can't fundraise or campaign while serving in the Cabinet.

        Which means, if she plans on running, she'd need to resign--at the latest--at the end of the year. That just doesn't look good for the administration. And the reality of the situation is that to challenge someone like McCain, she'd need to start fundraising right now.

        The last time any party had this margin of victory in the Senate (58 seats), House (257 seats), and Presidency (52.7%): 1964.

        by Yirmiyahu on Thu Feb 12, 2009 at 04:03:31 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  it will be a long 2 years (0+ / 0-)

        and I think Grassley might just retire rather then face the end of his career in the minority.

    •  Gaby Giffords in Arizona.... (0+ / 0-)

      Napolitano vs. Kyl in 2012...

  •  Are we positive Gregg is retiring? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Superribbie, DemocraticLuntz

    I only ask because his credibility / reliability seems a bit suspect right now.

    The Republican Party is neither pro-republic nor pro-party. Discuss!

    by Nathaniel Ament Stone on Thu Feb 12, 2009 at 03:28:21 PM PST

  •  I think that's right (0+ / 0-)

    I don't see any candidates in Louisiana, though, unless John Breaux has gotten his residency in order and wants to go back to Washington (doubtful), or Mitch Landrieu is willing to take the plunge.  Charlie Melancon would also work, but is probably unlikely to give up a House seat he has succeeded in making safe for himself.  

    The Kansas rating is a placeholder, which will move one way or the other; it is a tossup with Sebelius running and probably safe R without her--at least likely.  Slattery's lackluster showing in '08 underscores that.

    The Delaware observation is interesting.  It could be that Menendez wasn't thinking of the appointees.  Either way, that seat is safe.  The only GOP targets are Reid, Dodd, Bennet and Burris (maybe).

    The frogurt is also cursed. -8.25, -6.51

    by Superribbie on Thu Feb 12, 2009 at 03:32:15 PM PST

    •  Cornyn would be delusional to go after Dodd (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32

      But that would suit us in North Carolina just fine ... :)

      "No way, no how, no McCain." Hillary Clinton, 8-27-08

      by Christian Dem in NC on Thu Feb 12, 2009 at 03:34:12 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I say that only because of the Countrywide thing (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Empower Ink

        I doubt it has legs, but if it did, and the GOP ran Shays or Simmons (or even Rell), it could get interesting.  That said, I think he ultimately coasts (much like Rep. Mollohan in 2006).  I also think that after all of the pissing and moaning, Burris will either win election in Illinois with ease, or he will be knocked off in a primary and the victor will win handily.  Finally, the GOP bench in both Colorado and Nevada isn't what it used to be.  Neither Bennet nor Reid has an obvious top shelf opponent.  In Colorado, Bill Owens and John Suthers are out, leaving the GOP with multi-time loser Bob Shaffer and perpetual shrinking violet Scott McInnins; in Nevada, it's still likely to be Jon Porter, but losing his own seat in 2008 isn't exactly a ringing endorsement of his viability.

        The frogurt is also cursed. -8.25, -6.51

        by Superribbie on Thu Feb 12, 2009 at 03:42:12 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  I'm feeling 4 pickups (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    FG

    NH, OH, FL, and MO. NH because it's a liberal state, and the other 3 because we have the better candidates.
    PA if Specter retires. I don't think he will retire, and I'm sure he will easily win a Republican primary.
    I think we will lose KY, even if it's against Bunning.
    KS will be difficult if Sibelius runs, and impossible if she doesn't. I think she will run, but she won't announce until at least a year from now.

    "I'm going to be on you like a numerator on a denominator." -Principal Skinner

    by dufffbeer on Thu Feb 12, 2009 at 03:35:12 PM PST

    •  why difficult if Sebelius runs? (0+ / 0-)

      Have you seen her favorability ratings? She's insanely popular.

      The last time any party had this margin of victory in the Senate (58 seats), House (257 seats), and Presidency (52.7%): 1964.

      by Yirmiyahu on Thu Feb 12, 2009 at 04:09:21 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Senate races are more partisan than Governor race (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        emilysdad

        A Senate election is about what you want to export to the rest of the country, and a conservative state like Kansas will want conservative representation. Governor elections are about managerial skill and local issues, so they are less partisan, and a good candidate can win more crossover votes. For example, the 2008 Mississippi Senate election. We had a popular Democratic Governor run for the almost-open Senate seat and he lost pretty badly.

        "I'm going to be on you like a numerator on a denominator." -Principal Skinner

        by dufffbeer on Thu Feb 12, 2009 at 04:58:52 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  This is not uncommon... (0+ / 0-)

        ...it was 1994 but one of my favorite examples was whoever the Wyomong Senator was at the time vs. incredibly popular Democratic Governor MIke Sullivan.  I think Sullivan only got 37%.

        "An army of principles can penetrate where an army of soldiers cannot." - Thomas Paine

        by Mister Gloom on Thu Feb 12, 2009 at 05:14:11 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Wyoming 1994 (0+ / 0-)
          Sen. Malcolm Wallop (R) retired. Rep. Craig Thomas (R) ran against Sullivan, & crushed him by arguing that the Senate needed "a friend of Wyoming, not a friend of Bill."

          After the election, Clinton named Sullivan as Ambassador to Ireland. Thomas died in office in 2007.

    •  definitely better candidates (0+ / 0-)

      (right now) in New Hampshire and Missouri, and probably we'll get someone better than Portman in Ohio, but if Crist runs in Florida he should win. I'm dubious, though...the Republicans don't want to risk that governor's mansion considering how important Florida will be in 2011 redistricting, and does Crist want to be a freshman in the minority party?

      For now, New Hampshire, Missouri, and Ohio all feel good. If Gregg changes his mind in NH it will put that back at "leans GOP" at worst.

      The Republican Party is neither pro-republic nor pro-party. Discuss!

      by Nathaniel Ament Stone on Thu Feb 12, 2009 at 04:22:04 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I don't know about Florida. The way things stand (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      dufffbeer

      now even if Crist doesn't run Dem prospects are modest. MO is even money at best, both Dems and GOP will have strong candidates and it's not a blue state. I agree with you on the rest of the states.

  •  I think 5 pick-ups (0+ / 0-)

    FL, MO, OH, NH, and either KS (if Sebelius runs) or NC.  If Specter is primaried, we can get that seat.  LA is one of the few states trending republican, and KY is just tough territory for the Dems, although we have had success recently.  IL would be my biggest concern in terms of losses, but there is enough time to get past the Blago stuff.  

  •  Maybe he meant beyond Ted Kaufman (0+ / 0-)

    Kaufman, I think, has said he will not run again.

    •  Oh, and as far as the races (0+ / 0-)

      A lot depends, of course, on candidates.

      Toss-up: OH, FL, NH, KY(if Bunning doesnt run, I think it's lean GOP).

      Lean GOP: NC

      Likely GOP: PA and LA

      KS depends on Sebelius. If she runs, I'd actually put it at leans-Dem, if she doesnt, it's definitely Republican.

      For Dem races;

      Likely Dem: NV

      Lean Dem: CO and CT

      Tossup: IL

  •  Well (0+ / 0-)

    I would target OH, PA, MO, KY, NH, KS, LA, NC, FL, and maybe AZ. All of those races should attract top tier challenges. I'd also find a way to beg Brad Henry into a race against Tom Coburn.

  •  Burris won't be back (0+ / 0-)

    If Burris doesn't get his staff in Washington in line, he won't be returning. My husband called the DC office this week about training for displaced workers in Illinois. The staff was rude had no information about it, and could have cared less about finding out about it. He is 59 and has some knowledge and some training with computers. They said that they would document our interest in training and let and give it to Burris.( I doubt if that happens.)  We didn't hear..."We will get back to you." We weren't told, "We will find out for you." We got no thank you for calling. They didn't even tell us to take along walk off a short cliff. Instead, they ended the conversation, and that was pretty much it.

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