After Kit Bond republican senator announce will not run for reelection, this race chance. Not was very strong incumbent, but not was the more weak. He has risk of be defeated.
In republican side, R Blunt congressman and father of former governor M Blunt, seems moving strong for run. Former senator J Talent, defeated in 2006 is out of the race, their polls not was better than polls for other republicans. And M Blunt governor will not run against his father.
But not all seems clear in republican side, they are more candidates who can finally run, like Lieutenant Governor P Kinder, the alone current statewide officer in Missouri, congressman S Graves, former congressman K Hulshof, and former MO State Treasurer S Steelman.
Not is easy run against an incumbent senator, and K Bont announce make the frontrunner democratic candidate let all doubts and enter definitively in the race. R Carnahan is in.
Like i make habitually in these diaries, i will include the list of possible candidates:
- Jeremiah W Nixon: MO 1956 Governor of Missouri 09- . Attorney General of Missouri 93-09. Lost for Senate 88 and 98.
- Roger B Wilson: MO 1948 Governor of Missouri 00-01. Lieutenant Governor of Missouri 93-00.
- Robert Lee Holden: MO 1949 Governor of Missouri 01-05. MO State Treasurer 93-01. Lost for Governor 04.
- Richard Andrew Gephardt: MO 1941 USHRep 77-05. Majority Leader House 89-95. Minority Leader House 95-03. Lost for President 88 and 04.
- William Lacy Clay: MO 1956 USHRep 01- .
- John Russell Carnahan: MO 1958 USHRep 05- . Lost for House 90.
- Emanuel Cleaver: TX MO 1944 USHRep 05- . Mayor of Kansas City 91-99.
- Alan Wheat: TX MO 1951 USHRep 83-95. Lost for Senate 94.
- Joe Maxwell: MO 19?? Lieutenant Governor of Missouri 00-05.
- Clint Zweifel: MO 1973 MO State Treasurer 09- .
- Robin Carnahan: MO 1961 MO Secretary of State 05- .
- Chris Koster: MO 1964 MO Attorney General 09- .
- Susan Montee: MO 1960 MO State Auditor 07- .
From this list, Robin Carnahan is running. After win reelection last November with the highest number of votes in Missouri history in statewide elections, seems clear candidate, and will run surely unopposed. Other possible candidate with good polls was D Gephardt but seems will not run against R Carnaham.
Seems will be easy primaries.
In a 0-10 scale, like this:
--- 00,000 ---
--- 01,429 ---
--- 02,857 ---
--- 04,286 ---
--- 05,714 ---
--- 07,142 ---
--- 08,571 ---
--- 10,000 ---
HI-Sen: Incumbent D Inouye (D-1924) win in 2004 with 76%.
NY-Sen: Incumbent C Schumer (D-1950) win in 2004 with 71%.
VT-Sen: Incumbent P Leahy (D-1940) win in 2004 with 71%.
ND-Sen: Incumbent B Dorgan (D-1942) win in 2004 with 68%.
CT-Sen: Incumbent C Dodd (D- 1944) win in 2004 with 66%.
MD-Sen: Incumbent B Mikulski (D-1936) win in 2004 with 65%.
OR-Sen: Incumbent R Wyden (D-1949) win in 2004 with 63%.
IN-Sen: Incumbent E Bayh (D-1955) win in 2004 with 62%.
NV-Sen: Incumbent H Reid (D-1939) win in 2004 with 61%.
CA-Sen: Incumbent B Boxer (D-1940) win in 2004 with 58%.
AR-Sen: Incumbent B Lincoln (D-1960) win in 2004 with 56%.
WI-Sen: Incumbent R Feingold (D-1953) win in 2004 with 55%.
WA-Sen: Incumbent P Murray (D-1950) win in 2004 with 55%.
IL-Sen: Incumbent R Burris (D-1937). B Obama (D-1961) win in 2004 with 70%.
NY-Sen: Incumbent K Gillibrand (D-1966). H Clinton (D-1947) win in 2006 with 67%.
CO-Sen: Incumbent M Bennet (D-1964). K Salazar (D-1955) win in 2004 with 51%.
DE-Sen: Open seat. J Biden (D-1942) win in 2008 with 65%.
OH-Sen: Open seat. G Voinovich (R-1939) win in 2004 with 64%.
PA-Sen: A Specter (R-1930) vs E Rendell (D-1944) ? af 60 votes = 07,333 => Likely Democratic
MO-Sen: open R vs R Carnahan ? after 08 votes = 06,667 => Leans Democratic
KS-Sen: open R vs K Sebelius (D-1948) ? after 43 votes = 06,240 => Leans Democratic
KY-Sen: J Bunning (R-1931) vs S Beshear (D-1944) ? af 18 votes = 06,019 => Leans Democrat
NH-Sen: J Sununu (R-1964) vs P Hodes (D-1951) ? after 10 votes = 05,667 => Toss-Up
2 KY-Sen: J Bunning (R-1931) vs ? after 33 votes = 05,606 => Toss-Up
LA-Sen: D Vitter (R-1961) vs J Breaux (D-1944) ? after 35 votes = 05,571 => Toss-Up
NC-Sen: R Burr (R-1955) vs ? after 38 votes = 05,307 => Toss-Up
2 PA-Sen: A Specter (R-1930) vs ? after 30 votes = 05,278 => Toss-Up
2 LA-Sen: D Vitter (R-1961) vs M Landrieu (D-1960) ? after 39 votes = 05,000 => Toss-Up
OK-Sen: T Coburn (R-1948) vs B Henry (D-1963) ? after 55 votes = 03,727 => Leans Republican
FL-Sen *: C Crist (R-1956) vs B Graham (D-1936) ? af 22 votes = 03,561 => Leans Republican
IA-Sen: C Grassley (R-1933) vs C Culver (D-1966) ? aft 25 votes = 03,400 => Leans Republican
AZ-Sen: J McCain (R-1936) vs ? after 48 votes = 02,396 => Likely Republican
*: The diary for Florida is for gubernatorial race, but can be interesting include here the link to the poll because C Christ let open the door, and can run for senate in 2010.
And for see about other difficult races for democratics like:
AK-Sen: Incumbent L Murkovski (R-1957) win in 2004 with 49%.
SD-Sen: Incumbent J Thune (R-1961) win in 2004 with 51%.
ID-Sen: Incumbent M Crapo (R-1951) win in 2004 with 99%.
SC-Sen: Incumbent J DeMint (R-1951) win in 2004 with 54%.
AL-Sen: Incumbent R Shelby (R-1934) win in 2004 with 68%.
GA-Sen: Incumbent J Isakson (R-1944) win in 2004 with 58%.
UT-Sen: Incumbent R Bennett (R-1933) win in 2004 with 69%.
All the polls are open.
PS: This diary will be updated when the number of votes up, and when the serie of diaries about senate end.