Today brings another reminder of the enormous task facing us in the Afghanistan/Pakistan region, where Al-Qaeda tries desperately to stay alive and away from the sights of Predator drones. President Zardari of Pakistan has reached a deal with the Taliban to allow Sharia law to be implemented in parts of the NWFP(North-West Frontier Province). The entire Malakand Division will have strict religious-law recognized. This area includes the Swat Valley, once a rare bustling place for tourism until its takeover by the Taliban. This comes a day after the Taliban announced a cease-fire in the region.
Like with neighboring Afghanistan and its President, Hamid Karzai, "the Mayor of Kabul", Pakistan is ceding ground to the Taliban.
The Swat district is considered to be outside of the federally administered tribal regions. Years ago, one would not have expected the Taliban to be able to take control of this region. Yet the war in Iraq and the unpopularity of former President Musharraf became a double-whammy for Pakistani moderates, as the Taliban gained effective tools for recruitment. Pakistan, like Afghanistan, is a region who's government needs to be close to the ground. Central governments often prove themselves weak because of this. While President Zardari, once known as "Mr. 10 Percent" when his late-wife was premier, has indeed exceeded the low expectations set for him, this latest turn of events proves that we cannot expect too much.
While many of us are all hopeful that we can find elements of the Taliban that we can live with, there is no reason to suspect that this latest deal is a development in such a direction. This is not a progressive step forward towards the "regional approach" that General Petraeus, Defense Secretary Gates, Mr. Holbrooke, and President Obama are likely to use. We have seen cease-fires and deals made before between the Taliban and Musharraf, and the end result was always a lull that allowed the Taliban to strengthen their hand. Mr. Zardari may have an easy act to follow, but they have left a difficult path for him to travel. He has chosen not to learn from the mistakes of his predecessor.
At any rate, if you are still wondering why we use drones to go after Al-Qaeda in Pakistan, this is why. The central government is non-existent in many parts of the country, but especially so in the parts of the country where Al-Qaeda is hiding.